The difference between Malcolm Turnbull and Justin Trudeau – The Australian Financial Review

Malcolm Turnbull and Francois-Philippe Champagne at the opening of the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's address to the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum was typically enthusiastic about how much the two countries have in common and how well they can co-operate in promoting open economies and increased trade.

He can only wonder quietly at the difference in their governments' political fortunes. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has managed to extend his political honeymoon while Australian voters are already contemplating a quickie divorce from the Coalition.

Trudeau unexpectedly won government in November 2015, a couple of months after Turnbull surprised Tony Abbott with a successful challenge. Trudeau also leads the Liberal Party, although in Canada that translates into a centre-left rather than a centre-right coalition.

Yet despite Turnbull's reference to coming from different sides of the political spectrum, both men represented a return to the centre from what was regarded as the hard right under Tony Abbott and former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.

Both men were seen as progressive, socially liberal leaders with pro-trade and pro-immigration credentials and softer edges, including on climate change. They attracted voters wanting change for the better and a more positive, optimistic agenda. Trudeau exudes rock star appeal in an environment made for celebrity style. Even in cynical Australia there was a brief sense of political euphoria that there would be a coming together of the country under the personable, popular Turnbull.

Yet that's where the similarities start to weaken. Despite the same loss of manufacturing jobs, sluggish growth, growing deficits and a resource-based economy, Trudeau remains popular if with a few more dints on his shiny image. He has managed to deliver agreement with the states on some contentious issues including energy policy. And Canada can't help but show a little smugness about its ability to espouse the virtues of immigration, trade and openness without attracting much domestic blowback. The upsurge in populism has a different hue in Canada.

In Australia, the Turnbull gloss tarnished more quickly, and well ahead of the resurgence of One Nation's Pauline Hanson.

In part that is because of the government's difficulties in the Senate due to the power of wayward crossbenchers combined with the opportunism of Labor. Still, Turnbull's problem goes deeper.

It is also because he has been mostly unable to articulate his own beliefs and clear policies in a way that sounds persuasive to voters. That compounds the image of drift, with disappointed Australian voters confused about what their Prime Minister stands for. He is left looking dangerously like a man without a mission.

And the weaker his position in the polls, the weaker his position in a party riven by the open antagonism between conservatives like Abbott and the more liberal positions traditionally taken by Turnbull.

Add in a Labor party that has moved further to the left on economic and social issues, including on free trade, and that votes against all significant government bills as a matter of course. While Labor and Bill Shorten may not be popular, they are able to keep the focus on the government's lack of momentum rather than their own.

The embers of protectionism, anti-immigration and anti-politics as usual are being stoked into a decent-sized fire as evidenced by the renewed popularity of One Nation, tapping into a vein of sentiment similar to that driving Donald Trump. Australia's system of proportional representation in the Senate means an ability to constant leverage a minority vote.

Trudeau has no such problem given Canada has an appointed upper house with no real power. The two opposition parties, left and right, are still voting for their new leaders, meaning there is no alternative leader criticising government.

Trudeau also has a much clearer policy definition, including his willingness to go into deficit spending and negotiating with the states for a national carbon tax. The question is whether Trudeau's ability to keep campaign promises will protect him or whether he too will eventually share in the fallout from the lack of faith in major parties.

The costs of Trudeau's energy policy have yet to bite politically, for example, although rising electricity bills have started to stir community resistance. The impact of a national carbon tax with sharply increasing rates over the next few years at the same time US energy policy is heading in the opposite direction under Trump risks turning that into a blunt political weapon for the conservative party. That would be especially potent if business investment flees south of the border attracted by lower US energy costs and business taxes.

The timing of that reality check in Canada may be delayed but the dilemma seems inevitable.

In the wake of the South Australian blackouts and growing business concern, Turnbull is now attacking the Labor party over its rush to renewable energy without paying enough attention to cost or security of supply. Yet this issue hardly rated a mention in the election campaign, with Turnbull deciding not to fight on it given the popular appeal of renewable energy and his own previous strong support for carbon pricing.

The implication of Trump's lower corporate tax policies will also reach deep into both countries' competitiveness given their relatively high tax rates. Turnbull's reluctance a year ago to take on comprehensive tax reform means he is left arguing for corporate tax cuts over a decade while voters complain about unfairness right now. So far, Trudeau's key measure has been to raise taxes on the highest income earners to symbolically help fund a tax cut for the middle class. That's unlikely to be sufficient ahead of the next election.

But right now, despite Canada and Australia having so much in common, it's the difference in the domestic political balance that is most striking. Trudeau should hope any greater convergence remains limited.

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The difference between Malcolm Turnbull and Justin Trudeau - The Australian Financial Review