New House lines in New York would boost 2 Democrats and a Republican – POLITICO

The release of the commissions maps will not be the final step in the process. The lines would still need to be approved by the Democratic-dominated state Legislature. Legislators had not seen the maps or begun to discuss them yet, but several members believe they have a shot at winning approval after a laborious process in 2022 that led a court master to draw the states 26 House districts.

The most significant change, according to the state officials briefed on the plans, would be to the Central New York district held by freshman Republican Rep. Brandon Williams.

Democrats attempted to draw that as a solidly blue seat two years ago, joining Syracuse with college towns that included Ithaca, Cortland and Auburn. But after the lines were scrapped by the courts, the new maps merged Syracuse with more moderate communities like Utica, creating a swing district that Williams won by only 2 percentage points.

The lines that are currently expected would be somewhere in between these two plans Auburn, but not Ithaca, is likely to join Syracuse. That would allow for a 4-point shift toward Democrats, according to the officials.

Further east, the borders between the swing seats held by freshmen Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan and Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro are also expected to shift. The changes might include moving the Hudson Valleys Columbia County from Molinaros district to Ryans and Orange County from Ryans to Molinaros.

Those tweaks would result in modest boosts for both incumbents tradeoffs that would help Democrats solidify Ryan and boost their chances of beating Williams, but also make it harder to knock off Molinaro who is in a rematch against Democrat Josh Riley.

Other than that, officials familiar with the lines, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the lines havent been released, said they do not expect any significant changes in the rest of the state.

That would mean that freshman Republican Rep. Mike Lawlers swing district in the Hudson Valley would not see the shift toward Democrats that the party had hoped for.

And Long Island where Republicans won each of the four seats in 2022 but Democrat Tom Suozzi won a special election on Tuesday would stay mainly unchanged.

Commissioners of both parties said earlier this week that they were hopeful for a two-way deal at the meeting Thursday afternoon.

A bipartisan agreement would bolster the standing of the new commission that flopped in its first attempt at drawing lines two years ago, reduce the chances of another lengthy court fight and prevent a delay in the June primaries which were pushed to August in 2022 because of the legal battles.

The states top court in December ordered a new set of lines for this year and the remainder of the 10-year cycle because of the failure of the commission to follow its rules.

Once the commission approves the lines, they would need to be approved by both houses of the state Legislature. Democrats have narrow supermajorities in each of them.

Its really a question for all 150 of us, said Assemblymember Ken Zebrowski, who leads Democrats redistricting efforts in his 150-seat chamber. I think everybody will be looking for fairness. Hopefully everybodys version of fairness isnt different from each others.

There has been a general sense in recent weeks that legislators are eager to put the years of legal drama over redistricting to a close, and they might be willing to sign off on maps even if theyre not as aggressively gerrymandered in districts like Lawlers as some national Democrats would like.

One unknown has been whether specific members would be pressured by national leaders to reject any bipartisan lines in favor of a more Democratic-friendly map. But there are few signs they have felt that pressure yet.

And Suozzis victory limits the urgency to reshape his Long Island district winning the special election boosts his chances of keeping the seat in November when there is higher turnout in a presidential year in heavily blue New York.

Tom Suozzi won a race on the map that is currently in place, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in Washington on Wednesday morning. And were preparing to win the races that we need to win on the map that is currently in place.

Democratic state Sen. John Mannion, who has a vote on the lines, is running in a Democratic primary for Williams seat. Asked about the possible changes earlier in the week, he said he was fine with whatever happens.

Im advocating for Central New York already, he said. So wherever the lines are, Ill be proud to run in that district because I believe we have a lot of shared interests in whatever directions the maps go.

One remaining unknown is just when the Legislature will finalize the lines, and there is some urgency. Members arent scheduled to hold session again until Monday, Feb. 27 which is the day that congressional candidates are due to start collection petitions, potentially creating some logistical headaches.

Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins said earlier this week that she was open to calling a special session next week. But the Assembly has not yet had those discussions, and members think its highly unlikely there will be an early return.

If Democrats unite behind the lines, then Republican votes wont be needed. But two top Republicans said on Wednesday that they would be content with the lines that they expect to be approved by the commission.

So theres a chance that after years of bitter legislative and legal battles over the maps, the whole process just might wrap up in a moment of bipartisan unity.

It can and it should, and I hope it does, said Sen. Jack Martins, who led the Republicans on the redistricting commission two years ago. Because I think the integrity of the process is only bettered by both sides showing they can work together.

Nick Reisman and Jeff Coltin contributed to this report.

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New House lines in New York would boost 2 Democrats and a Republican - POLITICO