Friday briefing: What will Ukraines long-anticipated counteroffensive look like? – The Guardian

First Edition

In todays newsletter: After a long winter froze combat for months, Volodymyr Zelenskiys next move could be crucial to his countrys future

Fri 12 May 2023 02.00 EDT

Good morning. After the long winter months during which the frontlines in Ukraine remained largely frozen, one great question is hanging over the war: now that the conditions have changed, when will Kyiv order the counteroffensive that it views as crucial to driving the Russians out?

You will have seen that term, counteroffensive, in countless news stories over the last few weeks. But nobody knows exactly what it means. That is deliberate: Ukraines greatest success of the war so far came when it successfully fooled Moscow into thinking its September attack would come in the south, and not in the northern Kharkiv region. Surprises over timing and location are the most powerful tool at Ukraines disposal as it attempts to regain lost territory, break Russian supply lines, and bolster western support for the long war that likely lies ahead. But it is also extremely difficult to maintain.

There has been widespread anticipation that the attack could begin soon but yesterday, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy told the BBC and other European broadcasters that more time was still needed to prepare.

While the UK became the first western country to provide long-range cruise missiles yesterday to boost the counteroffensives prospects, an ongoing lack of vital weapons could certainly mean that it could be delayed for weeks and yet some argue that Zelenskiys comments could be a ploy. Todays newsletter, with the Guardians defence editor Dan Sabbagh, is about what shape a new push might take and why Ukraine is desperate to manage expectations. Here are the headlines.

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After the stalemate of winter, Ukraine has talked openly about a planned counteroffensive for months. We are preparing for it, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in April. It will happen. But yesterday, he suggested that despite endless speculation about the timing, his countrys forces were not yet ready. With [what we already have] we can go forward, and, I think, be successful, he said. But wed lose a lot of people. I think thats unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.

Ukrainian commanders have also said that Kyiv lacks vital weapons for the new push but there are also reasons to be sceptical. The Economists defence editor Shashank Joshi wrote on Twitter that Of course this is what youd say if the counter-offensive was about to begin, appending a shrug emoji. And it is always useful for Ukraine to increase pressure for more western military hardware.

Secrecy is very, very important, Dan Sabbagh said. Its essential to the success of what happens next. In Russian, its called maskirova the military concept of operational security and secrecy, but also active deception about what to expect. So we dont know exactly whats going to happen or when.

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When could the Ukrainian counteroffensive happen?

The recent leak of Pentagon documents about the war mentioned a possible date of 30 April now in the past, obviously; defence minister Oleksii Reznikov recently said that the military was reaching the finishing line in preparations. While that could be misleading, it does seem to be likely in the spring, now the ground has hardened and that allows tanks to operate more flexibly, Dan said.

On Sunday, Czech president Petr Pavel appeared to suggest that the attack could be delayed, telling Daniel Boffey: Apparently, they still have a feeling that they do not have everything to successfully start an operation. That sounds aligned with Zelenskys interview. Pavel also said that he had urged Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal not to be pushed into a faster pace before they are fully prepared in a meeting last week.

While it is possible that the beginning of a major counteroffensive will be a big bang and very obvious, Dan said, theres also a possibility that it begins more gradually. Senior officials told CNN last night that shaping operations, strikes on key targets like weapons depots and artillery systems, were already underway but could last for many days or be used to sow confusion about Kyivs intentions. Either way, as well as the battlefield dynamic, there is also a political dynamic that creates pressure to begin soon, Dan said. There is a lot of support riding on providing evidence of a path to Ukrainian victory.

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Where is it likely to be?

With a 900-mile frontline that divides occupied eastern territory roughly the size of Portugal from the rest of Ukraine, there are no shortage of possible sites for the attack. But there is a relatively brief list of options both viable enough and valuable enough to be plausible.

The route one option, and the most obvious strategic imperative, is to cut the land bridge to Crimea, Dan said. That would severely hamper supply lines to Russian troops in the rest of Ukraine, which could only run via the Kerch bridge (the same one that was damaged in a mysterious bombing in October) as well as being a humiliating blow for Putin. But the obvious counterpoint to that is that the geography is perfectly obvious to the Russians as well. They have been preparing for a possible attack and they are very well dug in.

Last week, the UKs Ministry of Defence said that Russia has constructed some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world for many decades. These two pictures give a sense of how quickly thats been happening, showing the development of a trench network near the village of Medvedivka, Crimea between 3 January and 11 February:

There are other options available. They could also try to attack Crimea by crossing the Dnieper River further west, Dan said. But the Dnieper is a formidable, wide river that has already hurt the Russians when they were forced to give up Kherson.

Also possible is a counterattack in Bakhmut in the eastern Donbas region, where Russia has the upper hand after long and bitter fighting but Ukraine made its first significant gains in months this week. The head of the Wagner army, Yevgeny Prighozhin, claimed that the counteroffensive is taking place at full speed in Bakhmut, but has a history of comments designed to increase Moscows support for his forces there. The Kremlin has denied any major change in the area.

Bakhmut lacks strategic importance to either side, but its symbolic, Dan said. A breakthrough there would raise the question of what to do next: Youd be heading into territory which Russia has held since 2014 and where the welcome would not be as warm for the liberating forces, Dan said.

Finally, the Ukrainians could seek a breakthrough in the northern province of Luhansk more sparsely defended, and providing a route to Russian-held cities in the Donbas. But there is less obvious strategic value in that territory. And its quite close to Russia proper, so it would be easier to bring in reinforcements, Dan added.

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Are Ukrainian forces ready?

After a long diplomatic fight, Ukraine finally secured the delivery of tanks from the US, Germany and other European countries in January. Last month, Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg said that 230 tanks had been delivered along with more than 1,500 armoured vehicles and vast amounts of ammunition.

Is that enough? Theyd like 400 they have 200, Dan said. The West tends to provide enough to repel the Russians, but not enough to strike a decisive blow. Nonetheless, with Ukrainian tank crews trained on their new equipment, the new armour will be a crucial even if Ukraine wants more.

As for numbers: The leaked Pentagon documents talk about a tabletop exercise which suggested that Ukraine needs 12 brigades to make some progress as many as 60,000 troops and thats roughly what they have.

Against that numerical strength is the problem of newly enlisted soldiers who are less motivated or experienced. The people who wanted to fight signed up on 24 February last year, Dan said. By this stage, there is a real concern about the enthusiasm of recruits. Russia knows how to win wars with crappy, conscript armies of people who dont want to fight. Ukraine relies on highly motivated soldiers.

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Could the counteroffensive be decisive?

Ukrainian politicians have recently been talking down the possibility of a stunning success: defence minister Oleksii Reznikov, for instance, last week told the Washington Post that The expectation from our counteroffensive campaign is overestimated in the world and that he feared emotional disappointment.

A more acid take on that same weight of western judgment came from presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak, who wrote on Twitter: Military observers argue whether the second season will be as successful as the first one. Political analysts warn that if viewership drops, investors will consider whether to renew the series for a third season.

The point of all this: the Ukrainians are keen to emphasise that it is possible for the advance to be strategically important without the kind of jaw-dropping impact of last autumns success in Kharkiv. Managing expectations in the US and Europe is crucial to ensuring that only incremental success is not seized on by sceptics as a reason to reduce military support. That is another important point of context for Zelenskiys comments.

The expectation is clearly that this will be a long war, Dan said. Barring some very unlikely circumstances, you should not expect this counteroffensive to be transformational. But that doesnt mean it may not provide significant breakthroughs, and shore up western capitals. Ukraine needs to win not necessarily decisively now, but to show that that is a real possibility.

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Friday briefing: What will Ukraines long-anticipated counteroffensive look like? - The Guardian