2023 The Year Ahead | The Futurist

David Houle| Special to the Herald-Tribune

As a futurist, my goal is to be directionally accurate in all my forecasts. Long-term trends and dynamics are what guide me. Through the years I have had great accuracy in directions, if not in specific details or timing.

So this column is based on the direction and acceleration of trends and what that might look like in 2023.

The long-term trend to EVs will keep accelerating. 2023 and 2024 will both be years of increasing sales until 2025 when there will be dozens of EV models in a price-competitive marketplace. That is when sales figures become truly significant, rather than just moderate year-over-year growth.

Cable subscriptions will go down and streaming subscriptions will continue to rise. That said, the average number of subscriptions for households will go down as people continue to cut costs for television

Inflation is now starting to trend downward. By late spring 2023, inflation will be down to 3-4%.

The Fed will continue to increase rates in the first quarter of 2023 but at lower increments. By mid-year, they will stop increasing rates.

The Ukraine War will drag on. There will not be a negotiated settlement to the conflict. I think there is a possibility that Putin might be forced to step down by the end of the year, but the opaqueness of the Kremlin is such that we wont know until a coup is over. By the end of the year, it will be clear that tens of billions of dollars will be needed to rebuild Ukraine. It will also become clear by the end of the year that Russia is on a fast track to become a secondary economic power.

The Senate is controlled by the Democrats and the House is controlled by the GOP. This will end up showcasing the perception that the Senate puts forth legislation and the House rejects it. To the degree the GOP does not address their two campaign issues inflation and crime but instead goes down the rabbit hole of irrelevant investigations, they will lower their chances for elective victory in 2024.

The Senate will need to become more centrist if there is to be hope for support in the House. President Bidens deep desire for bi-partisanship will manifest in a good working relationship with Minority Leader McConnell.

Governor DeSantis is the clear front-runner for the 2024 presidential nomination. He will start to build up a campaign effort for a 4th quarter announcement that he is running for president in 2024

Donald Trump will get indicted.

Joe Biden will decide by the end of the year to not run for reelection in 2024.

The residential housing market will enter a national recession. Florida will be less affected than the rest of the country. Sarasota and Manatee counties will be less affected than the rest of the state. But all prices will be down compared to a year ago.

There will be a global recession, but it will be a mild one and will vary greatly around the world. Some countries will truly suffer hard landings and others will most definitely have soft landings. The U.S. will experience a mild slowdown.

The price of oil will continue to drift lower through the course of the year. The average for 2023 will be around $70-$75 for WTI.

Equity markets will largely go sideways in 2023. with continued volatility.

China will continue to have problems. The real estate market is way over-leveraged and overpriced. There could be a million COVID-19 deaths there in the coming months. In addition, large numbers of people under 30 will emigrate to Europe and North America.

After half a decade of democracy in decline around the world, democracy is and will be ascendant throughout the year. Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and to a lesser extent Turkey, will all undergo economic and social problems.

The U.K. will continue to suffer through its post-Brexit malaise of inflation, contraction and political disarray.

Crime will increase in many cities across the U.S. This is due in part to the massive changes in the workplace. The vacancy rate in downtown office buildings hit a high of 17% in the third quarter of 2021 and has been consistently around 12.5% since, which is above the historical average.

The work-from-home trend that came from COVID-19 will continue. It is clear that upper management would like employees to come back to the office, at least a few days a week. Corporate leaders seem to want workers to return, and there is a slow movement in that direction. The problem that will need to be addressed, is inflation.

Someone who used to commute five days a week was the same person who left the office at lunchtime for a $10 sandwich or a trip to a salad bar will now be confronted by a $15 price tag at the minimum.

Sarasota resident David Houle is a globally recognized futurist. He has given speeches on six continents, written 13 books and is futurist in residence at Ringling College of Art andDesign. His websites aredavidhoule.comandthe2020sdecade.com. Email him at david@davidhoule.com.

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2023 The Year Ahead | The Futurist