ISW is closely tracking developments in and around Ukraine.Click here to see a full list of ISW's Ukraine Conflict Updates. In late February 2022, ISW began publishing these daily synthetic products covering key events related to renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine. These Ukraine Conflict Updates replaced ISWs previous Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Military Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus, which we maintained from November 12, 2021, through February 17, 2022. That document is no longer updated.
Russia has destabilized Ukraine and sought to return it to the Russian orbit for years and may now seek to do so through force. ISWs Russia team predicted and then exposed Russias effort to integrate Belarus into the Russian military in 2020 and 2021. Now, over a hundred thousand Russian troops are massed on Ukraines borders, including in Belarus, where they could support a third front in a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine.
In the winter of 2021-2022, ISW and CTP launched a forecast series in response to the Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border. The reports in this series are listed below.
Click here to read Part 3:Putins Likely Course of Action in Ukraine - Updated Course of Action Assessment
January 27, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the crisis he created by mobilizing a large military force around Ukraine to achieve two major objectives: first, advancing and possibly completing his efforts to regain effective control of Ukraine itself, and second, fragmenting and neutralizing the NATO alliance. Russian military preparations can support a massive invasion of Ukraine from the north, east, and south that could give Putin physical control of Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities, allowing him to dictate terms that would accomplish the first objective. Such an invasion, however, might undermine his efforts to achieve the second objective because it could rally the NATO alliance around the need to respond to such a dramatic act of aggression. An invasion would also entail significant risks and definite high costs. A Russian military action centered around limited military operations in southern and southeastern Ukraine coupled with a brief but widespread and intense air and missile campaign could better position Putin to achieve both aims as well as reduce the likely costs and risks to Russia.
Click here to read Part 2: Putin's MIlitary Options
December 11, 2021
Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a military force on and near Ukraines borders large enough to conduct a full-scale invasion. Western intelligence agencies have reportedly intercepted Russian military plans to do so by early February. Visible Russian military activities and these plans so clearly support preparations for an invasion that it seems obvious that Putin really might invade if his demands are not met.
Putin is rarely so obvious, however, and a massive Russian invasion of Ukraine would mark a fundamental transformation of the approach he has taken for two decades to advance his interests and respond to threats. We cannot dismiss the possibility that such a transformation has occurred. The United States, NATO, and Ukraine must seriously consider the risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine and prepare military, diplomatic, and economic measures to deter and respond to that threat.
Click here to read Part 1: Putin's Likely Course of Action in Ukraine
December 10, 2021
Russian President Vladimir Putin is amassing a large force near the Ukrainian border and reportedly has a military plan to invade and conquer most of unoccupied Ukraine. Western leaders are rightly taking the threat of such an invasion very seriously, and we cannot dismiss the possibility that Putin will order his military to execute it. However, the close look at what such an invasion would entail presented in this report and the risks and costs Putin would have to accept in ordering it leads us to forecast that he is very unlikely to launch an invasion of unoccupied Ukraine this winter. Putin is much more likely to send Russian forces into Belarus and possibly overtly into Russian-occupied Donbas. He might launch a limited incursion into unoccupied southeastern Ukraine that falls short of a full-scale invasion.
A full-scale Russian invasion of unoccupied Ukraine would be by far the largest, boldest, and riskiest military operation Moscow has launched since the 1979 invasion of Afghanistan. It would be far more complex than the US wars against Iraq in 1991 or 2003. It would be a marked departure from the approaches Putin has relied on since 2015, and a major step-change in his willingness to use Russian conventional military power overtly. It would cost Russia enormous sums of money and likely many thousands of casualties and destroyed vehicles and aircraft. Even in victory, such an invasion would impose on Russian President Vladimir Putin the requirement to reconstruct Ukraine and then establish a new government and security forces there more suitable for his objectives.
Click here to read ISW and the Critical Threat Project's reports on the Russian military buildup near and potential invasion of Ukraine. These reports unpack Putin's likely calculations and use them to forecast his strategy. They provide critical insight for US and Western leaders and policymakers.
Click here to read ISW's running assessment of Russia's military activity near Belarus and Ukraine.This document is regularly updated.
Click here to see a list of ISW's Belarus updates. Launched near-daily in late 2020 and early 2021, these reports provide moment-to-moment insight into Russia's efforts to integrate the Belarusian military and subordinate the Belarusian state.
Link:
Ukraine Crisis Coverage | Institute for the Study of War
- WA woman in Ukraine to join foreign legion and fight Russia, and hopes to work as a medic - ABC News [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukrainian women are volunteering to fight, continuing a tradition - NPR [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraine suspends 11 political parties with links to Russia - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Russias Ukraine Invasion Rallies a Divided Nation: The United States - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraines Radio Station of National Resistance - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Theres an easy way to help Ukraine without military escalation: cancel its foreign debt - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Putin appears at big rally as troops press attack in Ukraine - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- The Complexities of the Ukraine Dilemma - The New Yorker [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 23 of Russias Invasion of Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- The power of the new Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraines leader warns war will cost Russia for generations - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- SWIFT, hedgehog, MiG: Here's a guide to the terms of war in Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraine Maps & Facts - World Atlas [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Ukraine War Update: Refusing to surrender Mariupol to ... [Last Updated On: March 21st, 2022] [Originally Added On: March 21st, 2022]
- Fiction About Lives in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Disrupting cyberattacks targeting Ukraine - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- How Facial Recognition Is Being Used in the Ukraine War - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- A Ukrainian mom scribbled her contact info on her daughter's back as the war erupted - NPR [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Russia can only afford its war in Ukraine because Britain helped raise the cash - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Ukraine braces for a renewed Russian offensive on its eastern front as it happened - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Russians start to see evidence of high military casualties in Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Ukraine war disruptions send food prices to their highest ever - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Statement from the President on Delivery of Air Defense Systems to Ukraine - The White House [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine war: catch up on this week's must-read news and analysis - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- Rocket attack on Ukraine train station kills at least 50 trying to flee, scores injured - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- War in Ukraine: Latest developments - france24.com [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- War In Ukraine: Latest Developments [Last Updated On: April 9th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 9th, 2022]
- How (members of) Pink Floyd reunited to record a song for Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Opinion | America Needs to Be Strategic About the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine Needs a Lot of Things, but Sean Penns Drama Isnt One of Them (Column) - Variety [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Why the Ukraine-Russia war is dividing the Australian Chinese community - ABC News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- This is what a Ukraine town looks like after Russian troops withdraw - NPR [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Poland-Ukraine ties seen as target of Russian disinformation - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Witnessing atrocities in real time in Ukraine is changing everything - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine's first lady recalls moment she realized her country was at war: LIVE UPDATES - Fox News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine latest: White House press secretary says Ukrainians 'won the battle of Kyiv', World Bank forecasts war will slash economy in half - ABC News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Desperate Ukraine tells U.S. 'bureaucracy' is no excuse for failing to provide critical weapons and ammunition - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Prosecution of Russian war crimes is ultimate test for Ukraines state - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Live Updates | War in Ukraine inspires protest in Chile - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 45 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Ukraine war: Tens of thousands may have been killed in Mariupol, Zelenskyy says, as he warns of 'tense' week ahead - Sky News [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- Russia-Ukraine War: Live Updates and Latest News - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 11th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 11th, 2022]
- How Ukraine's mud became a secret weapon in its defense against Russia - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Remarks By President Biden Providing an Update on Russia and Ukraine - The White House [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Ukraine war: 'We will stay here as long as we can' - ambulance crews defiant as Russian forces almost encircle frontline city - Sky News [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Ukraine says mass graves in Mariupol were 20 times bigger than Bucha burial site; Biden to send more weapons and aid to Ukraine - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Roots of the Resistance: Understanding National Identity in Ukraine - War on the Rocks [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 57 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- The War in Ukraine Has Unleashed a New Word - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- The U.N. now projects more than 8 million people will flee Ukraine as refugees - NPR [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Russias war in Ukraine threatens to spill over in dangerous new phase - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- US, allies hustling to save Ukraine; Rand Paul says US push to get Ukraine into NATO provoked invasion: April 26 recap - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- What Happened on Day 62 of the War in Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Russia warns Britain for provoking Ukraine [Last Updated On: April 27th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 27th, 2022]
- Is Hungary Ukraine's Biggest Problem in the European Union? - War on the Rocks [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraine war: Thousands of UK troops to be sent to Europe in bid to combat Russian aggression - Sky News [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- The hybrid war in Ukraine - Microsoft On the Issues - Microsoft [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- DJI suspends sales in Ukraine and Russia - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Congress Clears Bill to Allow Lending Arms to Ukraine - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- How this U.S.-made, $176,000 anti-tank weapon could change the war in Ukraine - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Malcolm Nance, TV pundit turned fighter in Ukraine: I believe in the defense of democracy - The Guardian US [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Briton and American Killed in Ukraine - The Moscow Times [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraines Zelenskyy invited to G20 summit to be attended by Putin - Al Jazeera English [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- The Ukraine war in maps: Attacks in Transnistria fuel fears that Russian aggression may spill over border - EL PAS in English [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Russias push into eastern Ukraine comes amid fears of a protracted war - The Guardian [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Biden requests $33 billion for Ukraine war; Putin threatens 'lightning fast' retaliation to nations that intervene - CNBC [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Russia sharpens warnings as the U.S. and Europe send more weapons to Ukraine - NPR [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraine-Russia War: Latest News and Live Updates - The New York Times [Last Updated On: April 29th, 2022] [Originally Added On: April 29th, 2022]
- Ukraine war boosts weapons makers' stock prices, but revenue to take years to flow through - ABC News [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- Ukraine Crisis Reveals the Folly of Organic Farming - The Wall Street Journal [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- WFP appeals for re-opening of Ukraine ports to avert looming famine threat - UN News [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- I didnt believe stories of atrocities in Ukraine. But then I saw the photos - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- The War in Ukraine, as Seen on Russian TV - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- How hospital wedding dance restored Ukraine bombing victims will to live - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- Finland, Sweden need to move now on NATO while Putin is preoccupied with Ukraine, former secretary general says - CNBC [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- How Russia and Ukraine are finding new ways to use tech in the war - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- 'This has to end': Jill Biden sees Ukraine moms' heartbreak - The Associated Press - en Espaol [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- The Lessons Taiwan Is Learning From Ukraine - The Atlantic [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- Ukraine Made Exactly One Copy Of Its Best Cannon. It Just Joined The War. - Forbes [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]
- UK poised to hand further 1.3bn military package to Ukraine - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2022] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2022]