Putin’s three-pronged strategy to survive the winter in Ukraine – Washington Examiner

TERROR, CONSCRIPTS, COLD: As Russia continues to target Ukrainian power plants with Iranian-supplied drones, the outlines of Russian President Vladimir Putins strategy for the coming months become clearer.

After suffering humiliating setbacks on several fronts, Putin is rushing tens of thousands of poorly trained and ill-equipped conscripts into battle in a desperate attempt to blunt Ukraines counteroffensive operations while concentrating aerial attacks, mostly with so-called kamikaze drones, on Ukraines energy infrastructure with the goal of freezing the civilian population over the winter.

Since Oct 10, 30% of Ukraines power stations have been destroyed, causing massive blackouts across the country, tweeted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. No space left for negotiations with Putin's regime.

Zelensky said 10 regions of Ukraine were targeted yesterday, and in a video address, he again called on citizens to conserve electricity. Wherever possible, we are trying to speed up restoration work, he said. But now, just like in the previous days, the overall situation still requires a very conscious consumption of electricity and limiting the use of energy-consuming appliances during peak hours.

RUSSIAN ATTACKS HAVE DESTROYED 30% OF UKRAINIAN POWER STATIONS, ZELENSKY SAYS

A BATTLE OF WILLS: Putins hope is that by inflicting enough misery on Ukraine and sharply increasing energy prices for the rest of Europe he can break the will of the Ukrainian people and erode the support of their European allies.

I think obviously trying to inflict pain on the civilian society as well as try to have an impact on Ukrainian forces, but what we've seen so far is Ukraine being very resilient in their ability to get things like their power grids back up online quickly, said Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary.

While National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told CNN that this months attacks have been somewhat successful in knocking out power in many areas, he added, I think it's twofold. I think it's, one, truly to impact civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and make it harder for them to subsist, certainly make it harder for the Ukrainian armed forces to communicate and to move around and support themselves, but I also think it's an effort to terrorize the Ukrainian people, to make them fearful, to push them to capitulate.

WILL EUROPE HOLD? The United States has said it will support Ukraine for as long as it takes, but as Europeans face the prospect of having to choose between eating and heating, Putin is banking on their resolve weakening.

I'm not sure the target is Ukrainian morale. I think it's European morale, morale in Germany, morale in France and other countries, said former national security adviser John Bolton on CNN. Winter's coming. It's not at all clear they have enough energy to get through the winter, home heating needs and things like that, but especially their manufacturing and production needs.

We're all going into a recession. It looks like Europe's recession may be deeper. And if their factories aren't functioning, it'll be deeper still. And that will allow Putin to prey on European leaders who just want to turn the page now anyway, said Bolton. So that what he cannot win on the battlefield, he may win by breaking Europe's political results.

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IRON DOME FOR UKRAINE? Russias reliance on Iranian-made Shahed-136 suicide drones has prompted calls to provide Ukraine with more effective defenses against the slow, low-flying aircraft.

Israel has the premier system for countering rocket and artillery fire Iron Dome, which is said to have a 90% kill rate against rockets launched from the Gaza Strip toward Israel.

In an interview with CNN yesterday, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Ukraine has reached out to Israel about obtaining Iron Dome batteries to counter Iranian drones.

Definitely, I can confirm that. That was a request from Ukraine armed forces, said Poroshenko. We know that Israel has a special technology, how to fight with the Iranian drones. This technology can save the lives of hundreds of Ukrainians.

The U.S. is also looking at what short-range systems might be effective against the drone threat. We're going to continue to provide them air defense capabilities, said National Security Council spokesman John Kirby on Monday. I don't have anything to announce today or get ahead of the next shipment, but I can tell you that from short to medium range, we have been working closely to try to get them the kinds of capabilities that they need.

LOCKHEED MARTIN RAMPS UP HIMARS PRODUCTION: With the U.S. shipping nearly two dozen of its vaunted HIMARS launchers to Ukraine, the maker of the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System is planning to increase production from 60 to 96 units a year.

The announcement came in an earnings call from CEO Jim Taiclet, who was discussing Lockheed Martins third quarter results. Lockheed reported a profit of $1.8 billion on sales of $16.6 billion compared to $16 billion in the third quarter of 2021.

About six, seven months ago, when we saw what was beginning to happen in Eastern Europe, I went over to visit some of the senior officials in the Pentagon and basically took them to letter and said we're going to start spending on capacity for a few of these systems, Taiclet said on the call. On HIMARS specifically, we've already met with our long lead supply chain to plan for increasing production in 96 of these units a year.

Lockheed spent $65 million to speed up production in anticipation that the Pentagon will be buying more. That was without a contract or any other memo or whatnot, Taiclet said. We just went ahead and did that because we expected it to happen. So those parts are already being manufactured now.

The Pentagon has provided Ukraine with 20 HIMARS launchers as well as thousands of rounds of GPS-guided munitions from its own stocks and has pledged an additional 18 to be procured from Lockheed Martin.

MCCARTHY: NOT GOING TO WRITE A BLANK CHECK: House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) signaled yesterday that if Republicans gain control of Congress, billions in military assistance to Ukraine could be on the chopping block.

In an interview with Punchbowl News, McCarthy said the mood among Republicans is that with the problems facing the country, U.S. aid to Ukraine should not be boundless.

I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and theyre not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just wont do it. Its not a free blank check. And then theres the things [the Biden administration] is not doing domestically, not doing the border, and people begin to weigh that. Ukraine is important, but at the same time, it cant be the only thing they do, and it cant be a blank check.

Punchbowl Newss Jake Sherman speculated, These kinds of comments could prompt the Biden administration to push for a full year of Ukraine aid during the lame duck, should Republicans win control of either chamber on Election Day. McCarthy may privately welcome this, in fact.

RETIRED ADMIRALS AND GENERALS FREE TO SEEK EMPLOYMENT: In response to a Washington Post report that more than 500 retired U.S. military personnel have taken lucrative jobs working for foreign governments, the Pentagon said that doesnt necessarily imply anything improper.

As private U.S. citizens, retired service members are certainly free to seek employment at their discretion, but certain standards do apply, said Pentagon press secretary Pat Ryder. Safeguarding national security and classified information, as well as preventing conflicts of interest, will always remain paramount to the Department of Defense.

The Washington Post report said 15 retired U.S. generals and admirals have worked as paid consultants for the Saudi Defense Ministry since 2016, including retired Marine Gen. James Jones, national security adviser to former President Barack Obama, and retired Army Gen. Keith Alexander, who led the National Security Agency under Obama and former President George W. Bush.

In addition to the limitations on foreign government employment that apply to all military retirees, all former DOD personnel are subject to a variety of post-government employment restrictions within law and regulations, said Ryder. For example, they remain bound by laws governing nondisclosure of any nonpublic government information. This includes classified information or information that they may have obtained through their federal employment or other information that may be protected by the Privacy Act.

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New York Times: Irans Guards Corps Sends Drone Trainers To Russian Military Base In Crimea

Breaking Defense: As Iranian Munitions Kill In Ukraine, Pressure Builds For Israel To Reassess Its Russian Balancing Act

Washington Post: Russias war in Europe inflicts crisis on Germany

Reuters: Russia Says Seized Ukrainian Lands Are Under Its Nuclear Protection

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The Guardian: UK to Issue Threat Alert over Chinas Attempts to Recruit RAF Pilots

Defense News: As Xi Calls for Reunification, Pentagon Says China Policy is Unchanged

Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Strength Now Very Weak, Heritage Foundation Report Says

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19fortyfive.com: Ukraine Is a Drone War: UAVs Have Changed War Forever

19fortyfive.com: Can Putin Suicide Drone His Way to Victory in Ukraine?

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WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 19

7:45 a.m 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme "Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict," with Navy Vice Adm. Carl Chebi, commander, Naval Air Systems Command https://www.ndia.org

10 a.m. Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "How will the U.S. Navy navigate an uncertain security environment?" with Adm. Michael Gilday, chief of naval operations https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-will-the-us-navy-navigate

11 a.m. Los Angeles, California Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, Los Angeles, forum: "Space Industry Days: Responsive to the Threat Accelerating Resilient Space Capabilities," with Army Lt. Gen. Daniel Karbler, commanding general of the Army Space and Missile Defense Command https://afcea-la.org/events/space-industry-days-2022/

11 a.m. Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: "The Freedom Agenda and America's Future," with former Vice President Mike Pence https://www.heritage.org/conservatism/event/the-freedom-agenda

11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: "From The Boardroom to The Battlefield: Operationalizing AI/ML (artificial intelligence/machine learning), with Gregory Little, deputy comptroller for enterprise data and business performance in the Office of the Defense Undersecretary; Patrick McCartney, lead of the Air Force Futures' AI Cross Functional Team; Alexander O'Toole, engineering lead at the Defense Department; Kristin Saling, director Army Human Resources Command's Innovation Cell; Brett Vaughan, chief AI officer at the Navy; and Brandi Vincent, reporter at DefenseScoop https://afceadc.swoogo.com/aiml2022

12:30 p.m. Axios virtual event: Cybersecurity Landscape Ahead of the Midterms, with former Rep. Will Hurd (R-TX); Suzanne Spaulding, senior adviser, homeland security, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Sam Sabin, Axios cybersecurity reporter; Alayna Treene, Axios congressional reporter; and Charley Snyder, head of cybersecurity policy, Google https://cybersecuritylandscape.splashthat.com

THURSDAY | OCTOBER 20

7:45 a.m. 11100 Johns Hopkins Rd., Laurel, Maryland National Defense Industrial Association Precision Strike Technology Symposium, with the theme "Integrated Precision Warfare in an Era of Major Power Conflict," with Brad Cardwell, program manager at the Missile Defense Agency. Register at https://www.ndia.org

10 a.m. Hudson Institute virtual book discussion: "China after Mao: The Rise of a Superpower," with author Frank Dikotter, chair professor of humanities at the University of Hong Kong https://www.hudson.org/events/2151-china-after-mao

12 p.m. Atlantic Council virtual discussion: "How the latest women-led protests in Iran might shape the country's trajectory," with Hadi Ghaemi, executive director of the Center for Human Rights in Iran; Golnaz Esfandiari, senior correspondent at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; Nader Hashemi, director of the University of Denver's Center for Middle East Studies; and Assal Rad, research director at the National Iranian American Council https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

FRIDAY | OCTOBER 21

10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: "Transatlantic Relations," focusing on the war in Ukraine and foreign policy priorities, with French Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs Catherine Colonna https://www.csis.org/events/discussing-transatlantic-relations

TUESDAY | OCTOBER 25

8:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies first annual Spacepower Security Forum with Gen. David Thompson, vice chief of space operations; Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command; Air Commodore John Haly, air and space attache, Australian Defense Staff; Air Commodore Jeremy Attridge, U.K. air and space attache to the U.S., Derek Tournear, director, Space Development Agency; and retired Air Force Gen. Kevin Chilton, former commander, U.S. Strategic Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event

I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and theyre not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They just wont do it.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), in an interview with Punchbowl News, warning that military aid to Ukraine could be cut in a Republican Congress

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Putin's three-pronged strategy to survive the winter in Ukraine - Washington Examiner