Oregon could elect a non-Democrat governor for the first time in 40 years – Statesman Journal

Oregon general election 2022

Oregon general election 2022

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As your governor, Ill only be loyal to you, Betsy Johnson promises in a recent ad. Im not captive to the far left or the far right.

Johnson, who served 20 years in the Oregon Legislature as a Democrat representing the coastal areas from Astoria to Neskowin and inland north of Portland, resigned from her Senate position last year to pursue a run for governor as an unaffiliated candidate.

Earlyon in her campaign, she was able to establish an unchallenged Goldilocks narrative, painting Democrat Tina Kotek and Republican Christine Drazanas too extreme, said Len Bergstein, a public affairs consultant who has been involved in Oregon politics for about a half-century.

Democrats have won every Oregon governors race since 1986. Johnsons unexpectedly strong bid has threatened that reign and made the race one of the most watched in the country. But not necessarily because she might win.

Johnson could play the role of spoiler, drawing Democratic votes away from Kotek and tipping the race to a Republican for the first time in decades.

You have to acknowledge this is not a normal race for governor, Bergstein said.

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Johnson's independent stance is drawing particular voter interest as the state's two primary parties have become more polarized. And it stands out in a race where all three candidates have similar backgrounds.

Oregon hasnt had a serious independent governor candidate since the Great Depression, when Julius Meier, of the now defunct Meier & Frank department store, won with a majority of the vote.

And this is the first time in state history all the predominant gubernatorial candidates are women.

All have made their reputations in the Oregon Legislature, and none has a statewide constituency, Bergstein pointed out.

Other candidates include Donice Smith of the Constitution Party of Oregon and R. Leon Noble of the Libertarian Party of Oregon.

Its a unique list of candidates, Bergstein said.

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Johnson served in the Oregon House from 2001 to 2005, and in the state Senate from 2005 to 2021. She has emphasized her record of independence. Johnson bucked the Democrats to oppose a number of major climate and gun control bills.

Kotek was elected to the Oregon House in 2006, and served as speaker for a record nine years before entering the governors race. She is running on her record as a progressive. As speaker of the House, Kotek helped pass laws raising the minimum wage, establishing paid family leave, and transitioning the state to 100% clean electricity.

Drazan was elected to the House in 2018 and was the Republican leader from 2019-21. She has a long history in the building, working as a legislative staffer from 1995 to 2003, then moving into lobbying. As a relatively new lawmaker, Drazan led a Republican walkout in 2020 to block passage of a bill to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

You have three significant leaders in the Legislature, Bergstein said. Once you step outside, its kind of a hall of mirrors. Youre a huge figure inside the building. Youre shrunk down quite a bit once you step outside the Capitol grounds.

Early polls showed Johnson waging an improbably strong campaign.

But since then, as her positions have become clearer, she has alienated voters on both sides, Pacific University political science professor Jim Moore said.

Following the Uvalde, Texas, school shooting, Johnson defended her record on gun rights, including her ownership of a submachine gun, putting off some Democrats. After the U.S Supreme Court's Dobbs decision taking away the constitutional right to abortion, Johnson emphasized that shes always supported abortion rights, alienating some Republicans.

Recent polls show Kotek and Drazen neck and neck, with Johnson trailing far behind, raising the possibility that Johnsons candidacy could hand the office to Republicans for the first time since 1987.

Johnson also led early in fundraising, which included $3.75 million donated by Nike co-founder Phil Knight. More recently, Knight contributed $1 million to Drazan's campaign, as she edged ahead in the polls.

Johnson has now raised about $16.7 million and spent $15.4 million since January 2021, according to campaign finance records from the Oregon Secretary of State.

Kotek has raised about $15.3 million and spent about $14.2 million.

With Knight's donation, Drazan has raised about $14.9 million and spent about $11.6 million.

Its a crazy race. I dont know that anybodys necessarily got any insights on whats going to happen, Bergstein said.

One probable result of the three-way race is that any of the candidates could win with substantially less than 50% of the vote.

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In Oregons general election, the winner must only get the most votes. Theoretically, that could be as low as 34%.

Theres going to be issues of whether or not that person truly represents Oregon, Moore said.

In the past, Moore said, when Republicans have won in Oregon, theyve won by a lot. When Democrats have won, theyve won by relatively small margins or even less than 50%.

The Legislature, Republicans in particular, have said youre not credible as a leader because you didnt get 50%, he said. In a true, three-way race like we have now, it doesnt look like any of them have a chance to get 50%.

Meier, the independent who took office in 1931, got more than half the vote.

He was able to go to Salem and say, 'The people are behind me,' Moore said. Betsy Johnson will not have that. She will not get more than 50% of the vote. She will be breaking new territory we have not seen in this state. Its an absolute unknown.

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Johnson says if she wins, shell force the two parties to work together.

Thats wonderful rhetoric, aspirational rhetoric, Bergstein said. But shes surrendering the ability to get an agenda through by saying unless everybody comes together, were not going to do anything.

Its also unclear how much a non-affiliated governor could accomplish without party backing.

Shes a very talented person. Shes demonstrated shes able to get some things done, Bergstein said. But when you are governor and youre trying to find votes, its a tough deal if you dont have any bedrock kind of support that comes to you by nature of your party.

Oregon leans Democratic as a state, with 1.01 million registered Democrats and 731,000 Republicans.

In the three-county Portland metro area, Democrats outnumber Republicans nearly two to one, or 534,000 to 219,000, according to October figures from the state Elections Division.

Counting minor party and non-affiliated voters, the metro area makes up about 42% of votes statewide.

So, is it possible for any of the candidates to win without winning the Portland area?

It's a math problem, Moore said. And looking back, I have not found anybody who did it in the 20th century.

Moore initially thought Gov. Vic Atiyeh, who led the state from 1979 to 1987 and was the most recent Republican to hold that position, might have won the state without winning Portland, but not so. When Atiyeh ran for reelection in 1982, he won in every single county, Moore said.

With three candidates in this years race, Moore expects Oregons most populous counties, Multnomah and Washington, to be a stronghold for Democrat Kotek. The nonaffiliated Johnson could have a chance at winning Washington County but probably not Multnomah,he said.

Republican Drazan will have to look other places for votes, Moore said.

In September, Moore calculated that there were fewer Republicans in Multnomah County (59,418) than there are registered Republicans (60,830) in the states 16 lowest-population counties.

So while a Republican could win a higher number of counties, these tend to be smaller and rural places that are outmatched by Portlands voting population when it comes to statewide races.

Christine Drazan can win all those 16 counties and be just happy as a clam, Moore said, And all she's done is she's basically doubled the number of Republicans who are in Portland.

Reporter Claire Withycombe contributed to this report.

Tracy Loew covers the environment at the Statesman Journal. Send comments, questions and tips to tloew@statesmanjournal.com, 503-399-6779. Follow her on Twitter at @Tracy_Loew

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Oregon could elect a non-Democrat governor for the first time in 40 years - Statesman Journal