If Poilievre wins leadership, but fails to pivot to the centre, Quebec Tory MP Godin says he will ‘reflect’ on his own ‘future political life’ – The…

The Conservative Party will elect a new leader on Sept. 10, but already one Quebec Conservative MP is warning that the results could cause him to re-evaluate his future with the party.

The unity of the Conservative Party after the leadership election will depend largely on the direction the new leader decides to take, says Tasha Kheiriddin, co-chair of Jean Charests Conservative leadership campaign. It will also impact whether three-term Conservative MP Jol Godin, who won his Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier, Que., riding with 51 per cent of the vote in the 2021 election, remains with the party.

Pierre Poilievre, left, is the front-runner in the Conservative leadership election. In addition to Poilievre, four other candidates are running for the partys top job, including Leslyn Lewis, Jean Charest, Roman Baber, and Scott Aitchison. The Hill Times photographs by Andrew Meade, Sam Garcia, and handouts

I dont like what I see about Pierre in this race, said Godin, who is uncomfortable with front-runner Pierre Poilievres (Carleton, Ont.) populist style of campaigning, and the potential future direction of the party he represents, in an interview with The Hill Times. If Poilievre does take the reins and lead the party down a populist path, Godin said he might consider crossing the floor or sitting as an Independent. Im moderate. Im not a populist.

Godin, who is supporting former Quebec premier Jean Charests candidacy in the leadership election and who describes himself as a progressive conservative, said he wants to stay in the party, and he wont automatically leave the caucus if Poilievre wins. The only reason for his potential departure, he said, would be if Poilievre wins and refuses to pivot to the centre. Godin argued that when a new party leader is elected whose ideological views and style of leadership are different from some caucus members, its the right of an individual caucus member to reconsider if they want to remain in caucus. Poilievre won his Carleton, Ont., riding with 50 per cent of the vote in the 2021 election.

Three-term Conservative MP Jol Godin says if Pierre Poilievre wins the leadership election and does not pivot to the centre, he will have to consider his options whether he wants to stay in the caucus or not. The Hill Times file photograph

Godin said if he decides to leave the Conservative caucus, he would have several options to choose from, including crossing the floor, sitting as an Independent MP, resigning from his seat, or starting a more progressive conservative party, perhaps with a few other Conservative members.

Poilievre, who is running a populist campaign with slogans such as, take back control of your life, and make Canada the freest nation on earth, is seen as the front-runner in the contest and has the majority of caucus endorsements.

In addition to Poilievre and Charest, the other three leadership candidates are Conservative MPs Scott Aitchison (Parry Sound-Muskoka, Ont.) and Leslyn Lewis (Haldimand-Norfolk, Ont.), and former Ontario Independent MPP Roman Baber.

Poilievre is a right-of-centre candidate, while Charest and Aitchison are progressive conservatives. Lewis is a social conservative and Baber is a libertarian candidate.

Poilievres campaign focus of freedom from gatekeeperswho, in his view, control peoples lives, as well as his support of the controversial Freedom Convoyis alienating some moderate Conservatives.

Some high-profile moderate Conservatives have gone as far as to suggest that party unity is in jeopardy and could fracture if Poilievre is elected as leader and if he does not realign his ideological positions.

Two Conservative MPs who are supporting Poilievre recently told The Hill Times that they are not sure if the Ottawa-area MP would pivot to the centre.

Tasha Kheiriddin is the campaign co-chair of Jean Charests campaign. She has recently authored a book, The Right Path: How Conservatives Can Unite, Inspire and Take Canada Forward. Photograph courtesy of Andre Forget

Pierre is someone who doubles down, this is who he is, a Conservative MP, who has officially endorsed Poilievre, told The Hill Times two weeks ago. Thats the reality of it, and he cant help himself. I dont think he knows another way.

A former senior Conservative, who is not supporting Poilievre but knows him well and who did not want to be identified in order to be candid for this article, said that if Poilievre wins the leadership, he would be more like former Ontario premier Mike Harris than former populist U.S. president Donald Trump. The source referred to the fact that former Stephen Harper-era cabinet minister John Baird is one of the co-chairs of the Poilievre campaign, who, before entering federal politics, was a caucus member and cabinet minister in the provincial Harris government. Before becoming a cabinet minister, Poilievre served as parliamentary secretary to Baird in the Harper cabinet. The other co-chairs of Poilievres leadership campaign are former Harper-ear cabinet minister Gail Shea, Conservative Senator Leo Housakos (Quebec), and Conservative MP Tim Uppal (Edmonton Mill Woods, Alta.)

The source said that when media stories mention that the Conservative Party was formed by the merger of the Progressive Conservative and Alliance parties in 2003, they overlook the Harris Progressive Conservatives in Ontario, who were not part of the negotiation team for the merger but had a significant presence in the federal Conservative caucus and its senior staff when the party came to power in 2006. This includes Baird, Jim Flaherty, Tony Clement, Paul Calandra, and a significant number of cabinet ministerial and MPs staffers who numbered the same, if not more, than federal PC MPs and staffers. These cabinet ministers and Queens Park staffers held senior positions in the Harper government and played important roles in shaping the direction of the government.

The source said that for years, Poilievres chief focus has been on fiscal issues and on winning, and will remain the same going forward. They said that, strategically speaking, Poilievre wants to eliminate Maxime Berniers Peoples Party of Canada, which was one of the key reasons why he has publicly supported the Truckers Protest. According to one estimate, the PPC denied the Conservatives winning in 20 ridings across the country.

Something that could hurt him [Poilievre] in the general [election], he wont embrace something like that, said the source. Hell go and hell find something else to reach out to the Peoples Party voters. So in that sense, there may be some mild pivoting.

Meanwhile, according to a poll by Nanos Research for Bloomberg released last week, Poilievre was the choice of 17 per cent of Canadians for prime minister, while 24 per cent said they would prefer Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.), and 13 per cent would choose Charest. The poll also suggested that Poilievre is ahead of Trudeau among men, non-college graduates, and Canadians who cant work remotely from home. To win the next election, according to the poll, Poilievre will have to broaden his support base by winning over the moderate Conservatives who are currently supporting Charest. According to this poll, the Charest and Poilievre combined total vote would beat Trudeau in every demographic except for women. The phone and online poll of 1,038 Canadians was conducted between July 29 and Aug. 2 and had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Tasha Kheiriddin, co-chair of the Charest campaign, said that the unity of the party depends on who becomes the new leader and how they engage with caucus members, rival leadership candidates, party members, and which direction they choose for the party. If the new leader fails to bring the party together, it would become an uphill battle for the Conservatives to win the next election. She argued that rather than engaging in populist politics, the new leader should talk about Conservative principles like equality of opportunity, personal responsibility, and community engagement.

I dont believe that populism is going to be the direction the party should take and put in the window for the next election, said Kheiriddin, who recently authored a new book called The Right Path: How Conservatives can Unite, Inspire and Take Canada Forward. I believe we have to address the concerns of populists, which are valid, things like being denied opportunities, feeling that you cant get ahead. Populism takes root when people feel blocked, and cannot advance even though they do all the right things.

Conservative MP Michael Cooper is the co-caucus liaison of Pierre Poilievres leadership campaign. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

Conservative MP Michael Cooper (St. Albert-Edmonton, Alta.), who is a co-caucus liaison for Poilievres leadership campaign, said the Poilievre campaign is not taking anything for granted, and is focused on getting out the vote. Cooper declined to discuss specifically what direction Poilievre would take the party in as the contest is still on-going. He argued that all party members should get behind whoever wins the leadership election.

Its the leaders prerogative to put together a team that he or she can work with and believes is best suited to fulfill the important role that we as a parliamentary caucus have as the official opposition, said Cooper in an interview with The Hill Times two weeks ago. When a leadership race is over, the leadership race is over. And the leader assembles a team, then we move forward.

But Kheiriddin said that it will be a mistake if Poilievre fails to make a sincere effort to bring the party together by accommodating rival candidates and their supporters in the shadow cabinet, or including rival campaign staffers in the Official Opposition Leaders Office. She said that Erin OToole (Whitby, Ont.) made this mistake, and he did not last long as party leader. OToole was elected as the party leader in the 2020 leadership election and was voted out by the party after the 2021 election.

There would have to be a lot of bridge-building done to repair a lot of the feelings and sentiments that are out there that are negative towards him, such as expressed by Mr. Godin, said Kheiriddin. So it would really be at that point, incumbent on him [Poilievre] if he were leader, to reach out to people, and I think to an extent to change the focus of his message, because some of that message turns off centre right voters.

More than 675,000 eligible Conservative Party members are currently in the process of voting for their favourite candidates.

The Hill Times

More:

If Poilievre wins leadership, but fails to pivot to the centre, Quebec Tory MP Godin says he will 'reflect' on his own 'future political life' - The...