Its Going to Take Several Miracles to Stop the Republican Party From Turning America Into Hungary – The New Republic

Republicans tried to overturn the 2020 election results, butthe guardrails held, if just barely. As a result of Donald Trumps relentlessattacks on the outcome, roughly 70 percent of Republicans did not believe that JoeBiden won legitimately, and still do not. The January 6, 2021, insurrection was adirect attempt to invalidate a legitimate election result, yet Republicanslargely went along with it: Roughly two-thirds of House Republicans voted to give the insurrectionistswhat they wanted mere hours after they stormed the Capitol.

The GOP isnt even bothering to hide its goals to seizepermanent minoritarian power anymore. Republican candidates for various stateoffices in all the swing states are promising to deliver their Electoral College votes to the GOP presidential nominee in2024, regardless of whom people in the state cast their ballots for. Republicanleadership also isnt even bothering to hide its ambition to turn the U.S. into a competitive authoritarian theocracy: The 2022Conservative Political Action Conferencewas heldin Hungary to celebrate and learn what can begained by killing democracy as Viktor Orbn has.

Republicans brazenness can be attributed to the knowledge thatthere is a vanishingly small chance Democrats can prevent them from achievingtheir goals. The path to avoiding this is extremely narrow and requires black swans toaccomplish. First, Democrats must retain the House and win all five toss-upseats in the Senate. This is highly unlikely given thatoff-year elections are usually wipeouts for whichever party holds the WhiteHouse. Bidens approval ratings are as bad as Trumps were at the same point,or worse. Democrats have gained on generic ballots since the hideous Dobbsdecision overturning Roe v. Wade, but they still have an uphill climb.After the 2020 census and another round of gerrymandering, the House tiltsabout 3.4 points toward the GOP. The Senate has a seven-point lean. To break the filibuster with 60votes in the Senate, Democrats would need to win the national vote by at least16 points three times in a row. Its true that if Democrats win every toss-up Senaterace in 2022, they might have the 50 votes to eliminate the filibuster withoutManchins and Sinemas support, though this only matters if they hold onto theHouse as well, which right now is a long shot.

View original post here:

Its Going to Take Several Miracles to Stop the Republican Party From Turning America Into Hungary - The New Republic