Ukraine’s ‘tactical realignment’ in the east isn’t a sign it’s losing the war against Russia – ABC News

In July 1942, things were bleak for the allies.

In the Pacific, the Japanese were ascendant and had captured Singapore, Malaya, and the Philippines. In Europe, the Nazis controlled much of the continent. And in Africa, the First Battle of Alamein was concluding with German General Rommel having pursued the retreating British Eighth Army across the Egyptian frontier.

Winston Churchill described this period as follows in his history of World War II: "The battle swayed back and forth until the end of the month, by which time both sides had fought themselves to a standstillI was politically at my weakest and without a gleam of military success."

Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might be excused for possessing such feelings of melancholy this week.

While the large-scale missile strikes over the weekend have been painful, much of his attention will remain on eastern Ukraine.

Since late April, the Russians have concentrated a majority of their combat power, including ground forces, artillery and air power, on the capture of the Donbas region. It has been a bitterly fought campaign on the Ukrainian eastern front. And while historical analogies are always fraught with danger, what we have witnessed has been neither World War I stalemate, nor a first Gulf War manoeuvre.

It has resembled, instead, the battles around the French town of Caen in the immediate wake of the Normandy landings. British and Canadian troops slugged their way through strongly contested German positions in the weeks after D-Day.

So too have we seen a slugfest on the ground in eastern Ukraine. The plucky Ukrainians, fighting against a larger Russian force with a significant advantage in artillery and air power, have slowly given ground in the Luhansk Pocket.

Centred on the city of Sievierodonetsk, Ukrainian defenders have been fighting the Russiansand wearingthem down as much as possible.

The Russians, using large forces of mercenaries and proxy forces, have only managed to advance in single digits of kilometres each week.

We may never know just how many Russians and Ukrainians have been killed in action or wounded. But, given Ukrainian casualty figures of 100-200 killed per day, we should expect it to be in the thousands.

The Ukrainian high command, while its soldiers fight and die in the east, have had to make hard decisions about the continued defence of Sievierodonetsk. There has been significant political pressure to stay in the city. At the same time, the Ukrainians needed their forces to stay long enough to cause enough destruction to Russian first echelon forces and reserves.

All along, the Ukrainians would have had a worst-case plan to eventually cede ground to preserve their combat forces. This is a very delicate balancing act at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. It demands superior decision making and courage from senior leaders. It can go very wrong for the defending force if the decision to withdraw is made too late.

This week, the Ukrainian High Command made the decision to withdraw its forces from Sievierodonetsk to previously prepared defensive positions further to the west. Ceding ground in the east by Ukraine is a tactical realignment.

It is not the same as"'Ukraine is losing the war", as some have cast the events of the last few weeks. It is simply part of war's nature, as humans seek to impose their will on each other. War has many twists and turns.

While the Ukrainians have been fighting in the south, east and north of Kharkiv, they have also been redeveloping their logistic system around the NATO model, and re-arming with long range fires. This will stand them in good stead for the fighting ahead. But it is an ongoing challenge.

If the Russians can close off the Luhansk pocket, it remains to be seen whether they have the reserves and logistic support to maintain their offensive momentum. They, like the Ukrainians, have been slogging it out here for some time combat exhaustion will start to tell. However, in using proxy forces and the Wagner Group mercenaries in Luhansk, the Russians may have been able to preserve other regular forces for subsequent offensives.

There are other challenges that the Russians will have to address in the short term. The Ukrainians in the east will be defending along a much shorter defensive line. And, Ukrainian advances in the south around Kherson will pose a dilemma about priorities for the Russians.

Even before the massive missile attacks over the weekend, it has been a grim week for Ukraine. But even the best military organisations sometimes have bad weeks in war. This is entirely normal. Remember, after Dunkirk came the liberation of Europe. And after the First Battle of Alamein came the Second Battle of Alamein, which was the beginning of the end of the Nazis in north Africa.

George Washington lost many of his battles, and gave up territory, but kept his Continental Army alive to eventually win the war (with the help of his French allies).

So too must the Ukrainians cede ground at times to win this war. Despite their enormous courage, the Ukrainians must not be drawn into an attritional fight with a Russian Army that prefers to fight this way.

This week's events have shown again that losing territory is bad for a country at war, but losing your army is fatal.

The Ukrainians have had a terrible week. But it is not the same as them losing the war.

Mick Ryan is a strategist and recently retired Australian Army major general. He served in East Timor, Iraq and Afghanistan, and as a strategist on the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff. His first book, War Transformed, is about 21st century warfare.

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Ukraine's 'tactical realignment' in the east isn't a sign it's losing the war against Russia - ABC News