The election of the first-ever leftist leader in Colombia, Latin Americas most conservative country, suggests the US is no longer boss in its own backyard.
New president and former-guerilla fighter Gustavo Petro has horrified Colombias conservative establishment and signalled that the leftist wave sweeping Latin America is still going strong.
The recent election of left-wing leaders in Chile, Honduras, Peru and Bolivia, had already prompted talk of another pink tide, of the type that swept in leaders such as Evo Morales in Bolivia, and Lula in Brazil in the early 2000s.
On Monday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken congratulated Petro on his victory with appropriately diplomatic language. But tensions between Washington and the nation that has until now been its closest ally in the region seem inevitable.
The first casualty may be Americas War on Drugs. Petro, the 62-year-old former mayor of the capital Bogota, has signalled that he wants an end to the failed policy that has done nothing to reduce the production and export of Colombian cocaine while creating a blood-soaked black market, and environmental destruction with indiscriminate spraying of pesticides to destroy coca crops.
In May Petro asked whether the million dead Latin Americans the majority Colombians and Mexicans has been worth it, in an interview with Semana magazine. Drugs are so demonised that its politically correct to say: lets ban them and start a war, but we never consider the consequences, Petro said.
So far, officials in the Biden administration appear determined to stick to the plan and maintain the half-a-trillion dollar-a-year drugs underground economy.
Petro has said he wants to legalise marijuana. But this drug is already legal in over 20 US states. So, thats not earth-shattering. The big news concerns Petros plans for cocaine.
Therell be a shift in Colombias drug policy, says Christopher Sabatini, the senior research fellow for Latin America at the Chatham House think-tank. I think Colombia will be in a stronger position now in putting the drug issue on the table to dictate changes to US policy.
Petro has indicated he wants to treat cocaine abuse more as a health issue than a crime.
Petro wants to wean peasants off growing coca by investing in agricultural development, though this will rely on removing some of the criminal remnants of guerilla groups such as Farc, from their cocoa fields.
Petros attitude to extradition of Colombian drug lords may prove to be another source of tension with Washington. The new president is not alone in claiming that Colombias authorities have used extradition to prevent traffickers from revealing to Colombias justice system their links with high-ranking politicians and military officers.
Colombias relations with Venezuela could prove another bone of contention. But with the Biden administration softening its approach to the Maduro regime, in an attempt to unlock some of its oil, a Petro administration in Colombia might equally prove to be a useful diplomatic bridge with Caracas.
This will all change, of course, if Trump or his ilk return to the White House in 2024. But ahead of that, or even at the ominous mid-term US polls, other events will decide the significance of Petros breakthrough election victory.
In October Brazils rejuvenated leftwing populist Lula may have his chance to return to power when he takes on the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. A leftwing presidency in Latin Americas most powerful country and the worlds eighth-largest economy will probably energise Latin Americas spirit of independence even further.
If Lula is re-elected, we could see a much more independent, muscular, policy towards the United States, with which other Latin American countries would fall in line, says Sabatini.
But before then Pero, despite having won the election fair and square, will have to survive some bitter economic headwinds and open hostility from the conservative elite that remains powerful in politics, business, and the media. I think his political honeymoon will be short, says Sabatini.
No doubt, Petro would shore up the support of many of those who voted for him if he succeeds in creating a fairer society with his plans for free healthcare and tax reforms.
He has picked Francia Marquez, a single mother and former housekeeper, as Colombias first black woman to be vice-president. Marquez is an environmental activist whose opposition to gold mining in her hometown of Suarez saw her receive the prestigious Goldman Environmental Prize in 2018 as well as death threats from criminal groups.
By getting the states hands on private pension pots and seeking to end oil exploration in a climate-centered policy approach, the government will make plenty of enemies.
Petro will have a tough time delivering on his promises because he lacks a majority in a fragmented Congress. Compromise and careful coalition building will be his priority as he seeks to build a more equal society, already rocked by civil war, crime, Covid and now a world economic downturn.
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Failed US War on Drugs in doubt after Colombia elects its first left-wing president - iNews
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