What the Australian election could be telling Jacinda Ardern – Stuff

Nazanin Tabatabaee/AP

Australia has said so long to ScoMo.

ANALYSIS: Not even two years ago Scott Morrison was riding high on the back of Covid-19. But as the results from the Australian federal election rolled in last night they issued a stark warning for New Zealand Labour: beware the perils of Covid incumbency.

Leading into the poll yesterday, the polls were pointing to a victory for the Australian Labor Party and its leader, Anthony Albanese.

Both leaders were very unpopular, but Morrisons personal popularity had taken a dive in the latest Newspoll, published by The Australian newspaper on Friday. Albanese was tracking at -5% net favourability while Morrison was -13% net.

The reasons given for ScoMos unpopularity are many and varied, including the fact that the centre-right Liberal-National Coalition that he leads have been in Government for nine years across three separate prime ministers.

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Perhaps in a sign of desperation, Morrison revealed when he went to vote that an asylum seeker boat had been intercepted off Australian waters. Australias hard-nosed border policy has been a political asset for the Coalition for years.

The issues, however, are brutally similar to those being faced by Labour here in New Zealand: post-Covid inflation, supply shortages, high fuel prices and a numbing tiredness in an electorate sick of Covid-19s rules regulations, disruption and privations.

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However, because of the relative size of Australias economy, those pinch points which are being seen in New Zealand are less acute, so far at least. Even the Reserve Bank of Australia, which hiked its official cash rate target to 0.35% is still a way shy of Adrian Orrs cash rate of 1.5%.

Courtesy of Covid, Morrison, as with Jacinda Ardern, became overexposed with an electorate who first saw him as a decisive leader, to one who was increasingly seen as shifty and do-nothing. Voters can be fickle beasts: in the broad scheme of things, Australias management of Covid-19 was not particularly better or worse than New Zealands. Politicians tend to get thanked for jobs well done before people ask: whats next?

Covid-19 threw out the decades-long rules of conventional politics. Lockdown restrictions, massive debt run-ups, wage support and the like may have saved hospital systems from being overrun, but for Morrison, the political bill has come due.

The reality is that Australia's prosperity has been bankrolled by the huge capital formation that took place during the mining investment boom of the 2000s and early 2010s. Iron ore, coking coal and liquefied natural gas exports underwrite state government Budgets and the Australian federal tax take.

This has been the case since John Howards prime ministership, which ended in 2007. Morrison, the ultimate political operator, has done little to improve on this situation.

The only creative policy pitched during this election campaign has been allowing first-time homebuyers to take up to $A50,000 in superannuation out to put towards a home.

Mark Baker/AP

Outgoing Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison conceded defeat overnight.

Australian Labor, the creator of the super system, which is largely controlled by union-controlled industry super funds, is dead against the idea.

For New Zealand, the result victory for Labor and Anthony Albanese is neither particularly good or bad news.

The likely defining aspect of the relationship over the coming years will cover geo-strategic issues: the rules-based international order, managing China's rise and furtive forays into the Pacific, and the war in Ukraine.

The whole campaign has been a doleful affair. After losing in 2019 with loads of ambitious left-wing policies, Labor this time took a small target strategy: the ScoMo lite.

And, at the time this went to print, it looks to have paid off, though the rise of the Greens and Independents in key seats revealed a level of unease with both the major parties.

But it does sound a warning for the Government here. Australia has been more or less well-governed through Covid, as has New Zealand. But with economic storm clouds gathering, a middling Budget and after two years of frenetic Government and relentless media exposure, the public here could be tiring as well.

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What the Australian election could be telling Jacinda Ardern - Stuff