The Ukraine war in maps: Attacks in Transnistria fuel fears that Russian aggression may spill over border – EL PAS in English

April 28 | False flag attacks in Transnistria

Explosions in Transnistria, a separatist, pro-Russian region of Moldova, are fueling fears that the Kremlins offensive could spill beyond the borders of Ukraine. On Monday, a Security Ministry building in Tiraspol, the capital of the unrecognized republic, was attacked with grenade launchers. On Tuesday there were blasts that damaged radio antennas in Maiac, and a strike against a military unit near Parcani. On Wednesday, local authorities reported attacks from Ukrainian territory against a weapons and ammunition depot housing thousands of tons of Soviet-era equipment in the town of Cobasna. The government of Moldova attributed the attacks to internal forces that seek to provoke a war and destabilize the situation. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers these false flag attacks conducted either by Russian forces or by sympathizers of the Kremlin who are seeking to create the right conditions to justify new operations in the area, or else to destabilize Moldova.

Shots from the

Ukraine border

Attack against

a military unit

Source: Interior Ministry and Security Council of Transnistria, TASS

Shots from the

Ukraine border

Attack against

communication towers

Attack against

a military unit

Source: Interior Ministry and Security Council of Transnistria, TASS

The attacks would serve as a pretext for Moscow to allegedly safeguard its Russian-speaking population in the east, where the Kremlin has had forces deployed for three decades. This same pretext was used in the eastern Ukrainian provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his troops to invade Ukraine. The ISW believes that Russia does not have enough battalions in the area to launch an attack against the city of Odessa, and cannot benefit from reinforcements because they lack access to the areas that are under their control. A study by the Brussels-based think tank CEPS claims that there are nearly 1,500 Russian soldiers deployed on a stretch of land of around 400 kilometers along the eastern bank of the Dniester River. A third of them are there as keepers of the peace, and the rest are there to watch over the Cobasna arsenal, one of the biggest in eastern Europe.

If Russia were to recognize Transnistria, which officially calls itself the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic, it would allow separatists there to seek additional protection from the Kremlin. Getting Transnistria involved in the conflict would let Russia launch attacks from that territory, and would increase tensions between Moldova and neighboring Romania, which is a member of NATO. While Moldova is not a member, it is a close collaborator and regularly attends meetings.

The Russian general Rustam Minnekayev said last week that Moscow is targeting the vital centers of the Ukrainian economy and wants access to Transnistria, where he claims there have been cases of oppression against the Russian-speaking population. The ISW has warned that Russian and Transnistrian forces on Wednesday accelerated preparations for potential operations. And Ukrainian intelligence sources cautioned that they could be preparing a missile strike in order to blame it on Kyiv. A study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies conducted before the start of the invasion foresaw the possibility of a Russian conquest of a strip of territory connecting Crimea (which Russia annexed in 2014) with the Donbas region of Ukraine and Transnistria.

Russian forces are trying to surround Ukrainian defensive lines in the east, according to UK intelligence reports. Russian advances from Izyum in the north and Mariupol in the south would squeeze the Ukrainian fighters who have been repelling the invader for weeks on the Donbas front. Moscows ground operations have barely secured any new territory in the last 24 hours, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The Ukrainians easternmost defensive position is near the town of Severodonetsk; if the Russians manage to fully encircle them from behind, they will be trapped and unable to receive supplies.

The city of Kreminna has reportedly fallen and heavy fighting is reported south of Izyum, as Russian forces attempt to advance towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the north and east. Ukrainian forces have been preparing defenses in Zhaporizhia ahead of a potential Russian attack from the south, said the UK Defense Ministry in its update.

Area recovered

by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

The ISWs daily report drew attention to May 9, the day when Russia will hold a Victory Day parade to observe the 77th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany. This red-letter day on the Kremlins calendar could be behind the renewed ground attacks against the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, the last remaining stronghold of resistance in the port city. The ISW notes that Russian officials in charge of the operation might feel that the strategy of besieging the plant may not be enough to starve out the defenders ahead of May 9.

In the south, Ukrainian defense forces conducted counterattacks to take back control of an area between the city of Kherson, which is under Russian occupation, and Mykolaiv. Local Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson Oblast are unlikely to develop into a larger counteroffensive in the near term but are disrupting Russian efforts to completely capture Kherson Oblast and are likely acting as a drain on Russian combat power that could otherwise support Russias main effort in eastern Ukraine, said the ISW.

In western and central Ukraine, Russian troops conducted precision missile strikes against five Ukrainian railway stations. The strikes, which took place within the space of an hour, killed at least one person and injured more than 40 in Vinnytsia, Poltava, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne and Zhytomyr oblasts. Ukrainian military commanders said the attack sought to disrupt Western weapons supplies to Ukraine.

The self-proclaimed authorities in the separatist region of Transnistria, (Russias occupied territory in Moldova), said that a government building in the capital, Tiraspol, was attacked on Monday with grenade launchers. Before dawn on Tuesday, two relay antennae were destroyed. No victims were reported in either case. Ukrainian authorities depicted the incident as a false flag attack conducted by Russian forces. Moscow said the new goal of its offensive in Ukraine was also to gain access to this Moldovan region located along the border with southern Ukraine, and which has been trapped for years in the Cold War. Russia has not recognized its independence and keeps around 1,000 soldiers in the area in charge of watching over old munitions deposits dating back to Soviet times.

The Russian offensive in Ukraine, focused for weeks in the southeast, has barely altered the frontline in recent days. Small, scattered operations throughout the Russian control line have allowed the invading forces to make very limited gains for example near Severodonetsk, a city of 100,000 residents in eastern Ukraine. In the past week, the Russians have gained around 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) north of Melitopol, in the south. The ISW believes that the Kremlins troops are still incapable of launching a decisive offensive operation, as they have failed to make a technical stop to regroup the units that withdrew from the north.

Area recovered

by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

Area recovered by Ukraine

City controlled

by the Russians

Annexed by Russia

in 2014

Note: What does control mean? It requires exerting a physical influence over an area to prevent its use by the enemy. It could be achieved by occupying the area or by holding power over it with weapons. It does not imply any form of governance or legitimacy. Sources: Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institutes Critical Threats Project (for advances and areas under control); UK intelligence (besieged cities); EL PAS and other sources (fighting and airstrikes).

In Mariupol, Russian forces continued to put a stranglehold on combatants and civilians who took refuge at the Azovstal steel plant, which was targeted throughout Sunday. The Russian strategy of besieging the plant means that many troops are focused there and cannot be sent elsewhere on missions such as advancing towards the north to isolate Ukrainian soldiers who continue to hold out in the Donbas region, said UK intelligence reports.

Ukrainian defense sources cited by the ISW said the invading forces appeared to be preparing an attack on the steel plant, because the Kremlin wants to show off its capture of Mariupol on May 9, when it is scheduled to hold a Victory Day military parade to observe the defeat of Nazi Germany 77 years ago.

Ukrainian president Volodymir Zelenskiy on Sunday received a visit from US State Secretary Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. Authorities announced that the US embassy will reopen in Kyiv.

English version by Susana Urra.

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The Ukraine war in maps: Attacks in Transnistria fuel fears that Russian aggression may spill over border - EL PAS in English