The libertarian phenomenon towards 2023: strengths and challenges – Zyri

In our column last Monday we presented a public opinion poll conducted by DAlessio IROL Berensztein on the libertarian phenomenon and, in particular, on Javier Mileis emergence on the political scene. Due to the scale that this phenomenon is acquiring, it is worth returning to some of the conclusions that we arrived at based on these data, to deepen them, and introduce some new concepts that allow us to build a more exhaustive analysis and begin to think what can happen with Javier Milei in 2023.

Pushed by the visible hand of a State that systematically fails to provide public goods and that generates inflation, restlessness and uncertainty in the citizenry, Liberal and libertarian ideas gain ground in Argentine society. The leaders of related spaces had a timid electoral representation with Jos Luis Espert in 2019 (he obtained a meager 1.5%) and a much more relevant performance in 2021, when they added four national deputies, including Espert himself and Javier Milei.

The latter gains more and more prominence on the scene of the national economic debate while increase in voting intention: From the aforementioned survey it emerged that a third of the electorate would consider it as an option in the 2023 presidential elections.

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A good part of the voters of Together for Change and independents feel attracted by a counter discourse of innovative characteristics and with footprint antiestablishment. This process shakes the ideological foundations of a country in which the consecrated ideas turned to the left after the 2001 crisis and deepened in that same terrain during the last two decades, even during the Macri interregnum.

Why Javier Mileis counter-discourse caught on in young people

The wave hits harder among the young. In the ideological spectrum, the rebellion seems to have remained on the right margin, if that scale is still valid. For this reason, a set of simplistic ideas, bordering on the Manichaean, seduces this segment of the electorate that is not characterized by seeking great explanations or subtle nuances. On the contrary, it demands answers to concrete questions and a new story that is not necessarily applicable to public policies. Feasibility takes a backseat, the what matters more than the how.

This narrative fills a void of thought in terms of political economy in relation to the great problems facing Argentine society: inflation, lack of growth, informality, lack of competitiveness, lack of prospects. The traditional leaders (the Political caste in terms of Javier Milei) not only does not find answers, but often seeks to avoid discussion regarding these issues.

In some sense, Milei and Espert do not compete with another space: on the other side there is hardly a government that insists on old ideas, imaginary wars and sarasas (despite the disastrous results it has obtained) and an opposition that fails to complete mourning for the failure of the Macri administration. What is the overall response of Together for Change to end inflation? So far nothing concrete only some timid, incomplete and uncoordinated proposals, that do not achieve a minimum of internal consensus.

In fact, the repudiation of ideas from the space itself sometimes goes much further: Gerardo Morales, president of the UCR, said that it was clowny and one stupidity the project of dollarization of the economy presented by a deputy Alejandro Cacace, who is also radical. For this reason, the presence of libertarian leaders grows exponentially in public spaces (the media, social networks, conferences) and their voice is amplified.

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To what extent are we facing a new alternative, capable of revolutionizing the foundations of the Argentine political system? Or will Milei be a new one-hit wonder (one hit singer)? In Argentina we had experiences of this type, such as the UCD, Cavallismo or even Recreate for Growth by the also liberal Ricardo Lpez Murphy, who obtained 17% of the votes at the national level in the 2003 presidential elections, but less than 1 .5% four later.

To gain permanence, he does not reach his leadership capacity or the strength of his speech: success will depend largely on the political and territorial construction that he manages to deploy in the year and a half that remains until the population goes to the polls again. Argentina is very unique: it presents enormous entry barriers for political competition, which prevent the construction of electoral alternatives.

Milei can get financing, structure an unforgettable campaign, bet on the best possible running mate and even turn slightly towards the center to expand its voter base, but without a presence in all the provinces and in all the cities and without a network of prosecutors, can hardly establish himself as a political leader that lives up to the noise it generated.

In addition, there is a factor that remains outside its orbit: what are the other forces going to do to prevent its growth? Until now, no one seriously attacked him. Together for Change, which concentrates the largest number of voters who identify with the libertarian phenomenon, continues to be entropically involved in its internal problems and has not defined any strategy to contain or reverse this advance, something that it could solve more or less simple: it would suffice to point out that Mileis proposals were never applied in any country.

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Anarcholiberalism has a great discursive arrival, it is true, but when it competes, it loses: in the United States, to reach a seat, libertarians usually join the Republican Party. Otherwise, an unfailing defeat would await them. Perhaps it is enough for the current opposition to point out how impractical and utopian Mileis ideas are to generate a decline.

In this way, they would reduce him to the testimonial candidate model, as they were at the time Chacho lvarez or Lilita Carri: characters that people vote to express their anger, but that they would not choose if they had concrete chances of winning.

The other big question is whether, even going through all the previous challenges and setting himself up as president, he will be able to govern. For something Argentina did not have a Bolsonaro until now. Perhaps, it is destined not to have it.

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The libertarian phenomenon towards 2023: strengths and challenges - Zyri