Two Bay Area futurists predict we’ll stop talking about the pandemic, and have more poop surveillance – San Francisco Chronicle

Weve spent much of the past two years living in the past nostalgic about elements of life we took for granted before the coronavirus pandemic, spending lots of hours remembering the people we miss.

Its been said by so many, but the coronavirus pandemic has also been a crisis in comprehending time. Two years after the first shelter-in-place orders, time feels as flexible and surreal as it ever has. Sometimes, yesterday feels like it happened a year ago. Other times, February 2020 feels like it just took place.

As we reconcile with the past, its worth wondering: What will the future look like in a world still suffering from the pandemic? Well, its probably going to be a time when were putting ourselves, and our society, back together. Thats a recurring theme in the forecasts from two Bay Area futurists author Annalee Newitz and Marina Gorbis, executive director of the Institute for the Future.

We asked each of them to offer thoughts on what life in the Bay Area will be like six, 12 and 24 months from now. They paint a picture to come of hope and denial, of struggle and celebration, of housing solutions and poop surveillance.

Gorbis: First of all, Im not sure that (the pandemic) is over. It looks like, from what is happening in Europe, this period of closing down and opening up, I think its likely to continue. Whatever its going to be, its not quite over. Whatever happens, I dont think were going to be shutting down in the same way we were shutting down early on. It will be much more surgical, much more selective.

We have a lot of people who are likely to have long-term health conditions, as a result of COVID, but also as a result of having an aging population. We dont know everything about it. We have a tremendous amount of mental health issues. And just a kind of malaise, particularly among young people. I mean, when you wake up every morning and you see that the environment around you that you know is not going to exist, its hard not to have mental health issues.

The good thing about this, as a result of COVID, were going to find a lot more scientific discoveries that go beyond COVID and are connected to other kinds of viruses and well understand more. I think thats likely to be happening.

Marina Gorbis, executive director of the Institute for the Future, she worries there will be a time the Bay Area makes a decision to forget about the pandemic.

Newitz: In six months, I think a lot of us will still be dealing with the aftereffects of the terror weve been living with. Were still going to be processing our feelings about how we want to live.

I think we need to start saying, Things are going to change. Things have changed. Things are going to change again. I dont think its ever going to be same as it was. Its living in a world where we will change.

There are stats showing people have been drinking more. People have been depressed and lonely. And thats understandable. A lot of us have had loved ones who weve lost or have been sick, and its horrible. Everyone who has been dealing with the pandemic, were going to be carrying it for a long time.

Gorbis: California has a large budget surplus, like a once-in-a-lifetime budget surplus. Between that and the infrastructure investments from the federal government, there will be once-in-a-lifetime investments in California in terms of infrastructure, probably in education. Everything from preschool and higher ed and other things. Thats a positive thing. Climate mediation, which is very much needed in California. I hope we spend it wisely.

On the other side of it, theres clearly a lot of emphasis on building more low-income and affordable housing. Thats coming from foundations, thats coming from the state, from local governments. And alternative forms of housing. I think well see some new models of housing that dont just provide housing, but also give people assets, longer-term economic security.

Futurist Annalee Newitz released the book Four Lost Cities: A Secret History of the Urban Age during the pandemic.

Newitz: Lots of people have pointed out, and theyre right, (the pandemic) has sped up the development around remote work and also around delivery services. That is all stuff that I think will continue to get more complex and elaborate. Were going to have more and more gig work and (as a result) many more people who are not covered with insurance.

There is going to be this continued obsession with cryptocurrency. Im not sure why its related to the pandemic, but I think its people panicking with how to make money and save their money. Its been a time of so many people having economic insecurity ... so crypto just felt like the thing to invest in. Or NFTs. I think there is going to be some really horrific set of scams that will impoverish people in a bad way, and it will be related to cryptocurrency.

The other thing I think is really interesting, now we have all this sewage surveillance. Poop watching. Its been really effective at figuring out what the viral load is in your particular area. I think thats going to become really typical, people are looking at our sewage. Some tech company is going to be like, We have a toilet that can read your poop. Like, Were seeing a viral load. Or, Your microbiome is showing that you are eating too much fat. You wont have that in 12 months, but you could see people pitching that idea.

Gorbis: There is a historian of science, Charles Rosenberg, who compares pandemics to dramas in four acts. The first is random response. This is happening, were throwing all we can at it, but we dont know what works. The second stage is what he calls progressive revelation, which is all these vulnerabilities that have been there for a long time, that have been suppressed or denied or covered, and suddenly you cant suppress them anymore. The third one is public response and theres sort of an agreement on what needs to be done. The fourth one is reckoning. You have time to think about, why did this happen, what caused it, what can we do to prevent it? I think were between the public response and the reckoning. I dont think theres a lot of reckoning yet about what exactly happened and why. Its a process that will continue.

I think there is a fifth act we need to add to that. That is amnesia. Were really good at forgetting things. I think we will be surprised at how quickly people will want to forget (the pandemic) and will want to go back to normal.

Newitz: Historically, when people have been through things like pandemics, there has been a big effort to forget it. Not because theyre afraid of it, but because theyre sick of it. I wouldnt be surprised if, looking forward two years, no one is talking about it all.

Nobody wants to talk about those years we were stuck in our houses. (But) how do we make sure we have institutional memory, so the next time we have a pandemic were ready and are prepared? And, not just the pandemic, but other natural disasters, because thats what this is, a microbial natural disaster.

Robert Morast is a San Francisco Chronicle staff writer. Email: robert.morast@sfchronicle.com

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Two Bay Area futurists predict we'll stop talking about the pandemic, and have more poop surveillance - San Francisco Chronicle