With Russias onslaught against Ukraine in full swing, officials of US President Jo Bidens administration continue to sidestep a question that is posed to them daily: do they still view Vladimir Putin as Russias legitimate leader, and therefore a man with whom it remains possible to develop a relationship however difficult once the Ukraine war ends?
Regime change in Moscow is not Americas official policy. But just three weeks after French President Emmanuel Macron was trying to broker a last-ditch Biden-Putin summit to defuse tensions over Ukraine, White House officials are hesitant to indicate publicly whether they are willing to recognise that the Kremlin leader has a long-term role to play.
Blame some of the reticence on competing viewpoints in Washington about the Russian leaders mental health. Its been 36 years since former President Ronald Reagan publicly described Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi as the mad dog of the Middle East, and political correctness today might prevent that kind of phrase tumbling from a US Presidents lips. But voices both inside and outside Bidens inner circle believe that Putin is no longer the man he used to be.
Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, suggested earlier this month that Putin is suffering from some kind of illness. Some people say he has cancer and some people say he has brain-fog from Covid, she told reporters, conceding that others just think hes a complete, raging bully.
Republican Senator Marco Rubio of Florida argued that its pretty obvious that something is off with Putin, adding that it would be a mistake to assume that this Putin would react the same way he would have done five years ago.
Former National Security Council official Fiona Hill herself a Putin biographer describes the Russian leader as isolated during the pandemic and developing a distorted perception of reality. Her old boss, former National Security Adviser HR McMaster told CBS News that Putin is no longer a rational actor.
That, of course, presumes that he was a rational actor in the first place. Yet some observers of the Russian leaders career argue it is far too easy for western policymakers many of whom have misread the Russian leader for years to suggest that Vlad has suddenly gone mad.
In the reduction of Ukrainian cities to rubble, they point to clear parallels with Russias scorched-earth military conduct during two separate wars in Chechnya and the flattening of Aleppo in Syria.
It was the Chechen conflict that led Putin to begin his crackdown on independent media in Russia that has now lasted more than two decades and left the entire population not just its leader isolated from reliable information.
Former Russian foreign minister Andrei Kozyrev a staunch Kremlin critic argues that Putin is a rational actor and that the invasion of Ukraine is horrific but not irrational.
Kozyrev argues Putin spent the last 20 years believing that Ukraine is not a real nation and, at best, should be a satellite state. He says Kremlin insiders lied to the Russian leader about the countrys military strength for fear of admitting military budgets were stolen and spent on mega yachts in Cyprus.
Kozyrev also claims Putins top lieutenants persuaded themselves that President Biden is mentally ineptand that the EU is weak, conclusions underpinned by the Wests lame response to Russias 2014 annexation of Crimea.
US intelligence agencies have vast departments responsible for maintaining psychological profiles of world leaders and tracking their behavioral changes. Those overseeing the Putin profiles at both the CIA and the NSA are either struggling to keep up with the Russian leaders mood swings, or arguing that his behavior is not wildly at odds with his extensive track record.
Their work, of course, is secret. But when the White House decides whether Putin is mad or just bad, we may get a sense of what theyve concluded.
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