More Than One Flank, One Threat – The Strengthening Crescent Of NATO Nations Around Russia – Forbes

A map of NATO member countries (in light blue) arrayed in a crescent opposite Ukraine and Russia. ... [+] From Turkey in the South to the Baltics North of Belarus, the geography - including non-NATO member Finland - hosts a variety of capability.

As of Tuesday, a convoy of Russian troops was reportedly nearing Kyiv, intent on encircling Ukraines capital. Putins forces may well accomplish their objective but in so doing theyll be acutely conscious of NATO countries and assets semi-circling their thrust West.

So far, the 30 nations that comprise NATO have offered no physical opposition to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, NATO is reinforcing its eastern members, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declaring the alliance would defend and protect every ally against any attack and every inch of NATO territory.

NATO began deploying elements of its 40,000-strong quick response military force (NRF) last Thursday, including its Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF), which is comprised of a core Franco-German brigade of 3,500 troops drawing on Frances 1st Infantry Regiment, 3rd Hussar Regiment and three German Army infantry/artillery battalions. Spain, Portugal, and Poland will also contribute units to the force.

While NATO has not detailed the geographic distribution of VJTF and other NRF forces, these and an additional 7,460 troops sent by the U.S. and Canada over the last fortnight are all on one [continuous] front facing a now clearly dangerous country, says Steven L Horrell, a nonresident senior fellow for transatlantic defense and security at the Washington D.C.-based Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

The troops, armor, anti-missile and aircraft units have been positioned to reassure the allies on NATOs eastern flank but also to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, to provide border corridors for the movement of supplies to Ukraine and support the outflow of refugees from the country. Their presence also complicates and indirectly influences the strategic picture Putin sees.

The Countries Stepping Up or Aside

Obviously, NATO isnt NATO without American resources, leadership and sacrifice. But as the early days of Ukrainian conflict unfold, six Eastern European NATO nations have stepped notably forward in support of Ukraine. Others have gotten off the fence but not moved far from it. Moscow can see the disparity.

Horell, a recently retired career U.S. Navy intelligence officer, says its vital that Russia sees NATO power as more than just one flank, one threat.

I think weve been vocal recommitting to [NATO] Article 5, an attack on one is an attack on all. [NATO] forces should be distributed across the entire [European Russia/Ukranian] front.

Presenting one front is important given Russias view from the east, Horrell explains. Putin sees his northern, central and southern NATO borders differently.

VILNIUS, LITHUANIA - FEBRUARY 24: People hold flags and posters during a protest against Russia's ... [+] attack on Ukraine near Lithuanian Parliament on February 24, 2022 in Vilnius, Lithuania. Overnight, Russia began a large-scale attack on Ukraine, with explosions reported in multiple cities and far outside the restive eastern regions held by Russian-backed rebels. (Photo by Paulius Peleckis/Getty Images)

The Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) have largely spoken to Russia and NATO with one unified voice, clearly articulating their concern about and opposition to Russian influence. Poland too, has cooperated closely with the West, like the Baltics spending the NATO-requested 2% of its GDP on defense. Its ethnically homogeneous population and unified political culture are powerful bulwarks against Russian hybrid warfare tactics.

Their resistance is complicated by the Russian exclave in Kalingrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland on the Baltic Sea, where Russian missile systems threaten NATOs ability to reinforce the Baltics during a conflict or control the skies.

The narrower slice of territory west of Ukraine, home to Slovakia and Hungary, looks less problematic to Putin. As recently as January, Slovakia reluctantly agreed to allow the U.S. to place assets at two airfields near its mountainous border with Ukraine. Slovakias parliament approved a treaty by a margin of just three votes and a January opinion poll showed that 44.1% of Slovaks believed NATO and the United States were responsible for the tension between Russia and Ukraine, while 34.7% blamed Russia.

Hungarys prime minister, Viktor Orban, has for years pursued an eastern opening strategy, tightening relations with countries to the east including Russia. Hes frequently met with Putin including early last month.

In the last week, both countries have agreed to back NATO and the European Union on broader sanctions. They are also accepting significant portions of the 500,000-plus Ukranian refugees now streaming west. Small American F-15 (and possibly F-35) detachments are thought to have deployed to Slovakias Malacky Air Base and Hungarys Kecskemet Air Base.

Despite NATO declaring Hungarian troops certified for duty with the alliance last week, Hungary declared on Tuesday that it will not send troops or weapons to Ukraine and will not allow lethal weapons to transit its territory.

To the south, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey present a mixed picture with notable opposition to Putin but varying degrees of inclination to display it.

Turkey, which is under U.S. sanctions for its acquisition of Russia's S-400 surface-to-air missile system, has maintained closer strategic relations with Moscow than NATO would like. As in Central Europe, energy is part of the picture. Turkey imports nearly one-third of its natural gas supply from Russia and Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoan have met frequently.

But Turkey has a capable, culturally U.S.-influenced military and ties with Ukraine including a deal to sell Bayraktar TB2 UAVs to Kyiv and to co-produce the ISR-strike drones in Ukraine.

What we have seen from Turkey is a considerable commitment to Ukraine, Horrell asserts. They have ties to the Crimean Tatars whove come under repression since the Russian annexation. He points to Turkeys sales to Ukraine of light combatant Corvettes and TB2 drones used extensively for ISR and even some strikes on Russian-led separatists in Donbas. Turkey, certainly within their defense establishment, remains committed to NATO.

A potential sign of its commitment came this week, with Turkey barring passage of warships through the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straits to the Black Sea. Though Turkey will still allow warships through if they are returning to a home base, it promises to limit Russias ability to move ships from its other fleets to the Black Sea. USNI News reported that two of Russias Slava-class cruisers from Russias Northern and Pacific fleets currently operating in the Mediterranean couldnt enter the Black Sea.

President Erdogan has also just called for the cessation of fighting in Ukraine, reiterated Turkeys desire to become an EU member and said that Turkey would support any enlargement of NATO.

Turkey thus appears more of a challenge for Putin than it did this time last week. Its shipments of humanitarian supplies to Ukraine represent some support but its continued hosting of U.S. forces (and nuclear weapons) at Incirlik Air Base - just over 300 miles south of the Black Sea - is Turkeys main contribution to the NATO front so far.

Bulgarian Air Force MiG-29 lands in front of Spanish Eurofighter EF-2000 Typhoon II aircraft at Graf ... [+] Ignatievo airbase near Plovdiv on February 21, 2022. - Spain has deployed four fighter jets to fellow NATO member Bulgaria. NATO allies have put forces on standby and sent ships and fighter jets to bolster Europe's eastern defences as tensions soar over Russia's military buildup around Ukraine. (Photo by Nikolay DOYCHINOV / AFP) (Photo by NIKOLAY DOYCHINOV/AFP via Getty Images)

To the north and west, Bulgaria is a NATO state with a different starting point than Turkey Horrell says. While the country is committed to NATO, They have not opened their doors to an increased NATO footprint to secure the Black Sea region to the same extent that Romania has.

On Tuesday the Bulgarian government confirmed that its defense minister, Stefan Yanev, had been dismissed after a Facebook posting stating that the Russian invasion of Ukraine should not be called war.

Nevertheless, Bulgaria does host a limited NATO presence with U.S. Army joint training and investments at the Novo Selo Training Range, 45 miles from the Black Sea resort of Burgas. Ukraine is also home to a large ethnic Bulgarian minority and Bulgaria has reiterated its commitment to accepting Ukranian refugees.

As of this afternoon, new Bulgarian Minister of Defense Dragomir Zakov said that if necessary, NATO forces can be formally sent to and stationed on Bulgarian territory. Given Bulgarias historic ties to Russia (despite the latters repression of it), this signals a real concern for Putin, potentially limiting his freedom of action in the Black Sea and Crimea.

The Keys

Along with Poland, Romania is a key in the strategic front arcing around Russia. Horrell says Romania is punching above their weight as an ally in NATO.

With land bordering both Ukraine and the Black Sea, Romania affords NATO proximity to southwestern portions of Ukraine as yet uncontrolled by Russia (thus possible supply routes). The country also hosts the U.S. Aegis Ashore Missile Defense System at Deveselu and has supported recent U.S. Army investments in Camp Mihail Kogalniceanu land base and airport near the vital Black Sea naval base at Constanta.

Romania is also taking increased contingents from NATOs NRF by the day. Over the weekend, Italy sent four Eurofighter Typhoons to bolster the NATO air policing mission long since underway in Romania. They join recently sent Eurofighters from Germany to Mihail Koglniceanu Air Base. American F-16s and F-35s are already flying from Borcea airbase in the southern part of the country.

Three hundred troops from Belgium, 500 from France have recently arrived to join the 1,000 U.S. troops transferred to Romania from Germany earlier this month. Earlier Tuesday, Romanian Foreign Minister Bogdan Aurescu told France 24 that the increasing NATO presence in the country "cannot be seen as a provocation" but rather a "legitimate response" by the alliance to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

So too, can other reinforcements along the NATO crescent facing Russia. One may ultimately come in the form of Finland formally joining the alliance, a possibility that looks more likely given a new poll showing that a majority of Finns now support accession to NATO. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin has said in recent days that joining NATO is an understandable response to the ongoing situation.

That would add another very capable military (and determined population) to the table with a salutary effect on the Baltics position at NATOs northeastern tip.

One of the ironies is that if Putins stated strategic goal is to keep states on their border from moving further westward, hes having the opposite effect, Horrell says.

And having a robust presence on Russias borders has many advantages. All of the Eastern [NATO] countries have intelligence collection advantages based on geography, electromagnetic proximity and access. They also have years and years of understanding Russian operations. [Gathering] them together on one continuous front generates more pressure [on Russia] than might be obvious.

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More Than One Flank, One Threat - The Strengthening Crescent Of NATO Nations Around Russia - Forbes