Putins military blunders give NATO a birds-eye view of Russias capability for a bigger war – but that threat remains real – Sydney Morning Herald

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds into its third week, its becoming clearer by the day that Moscow has grossly underestimated the resolve of Ukrainians to defend their homeland. The moral clarity of Ukrainian stoicism in the face of Russian aggression has galvanised Western public opinion and provided a degree of unity among the US and its allies not witnessed since terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

Most including the Kremlin itself expected a lightning Russian military victory. But integrated and resilient Ukrainian defences have accentuated the serious underperformance of numerically superior Russian forces that possess overwhelming firepower backed by potent cyber capabilities and the worlds largest nuclear weapons inventory.

A man takes a photo of the remains of a missile in a street in the Vydubychi district of Kyiv, Ukraine. Russian forces have shelled Europes largest nuclear power plant. Credit:AP/Andriy Dubchak

Operationally, the Russian military has failed to gain momentum on the ground and its increasingly unrestrained bombing of civilian targets including the shocking attack on a nuclear power plant underscores its weakness in Ukraine rather than its strength.

Politically, Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have seriously miscalculated by misjudging the resolve of the West, in particular the US and its NATO allies. Its highly likely that Putin expected to drive a wedge into NATO by dividing eastern European members states from more established members such as France, Germany, and Britain. That hasnt happened.

To the contrary, NATO unity is stronger today than it has been since the Cold War, and European allies more assured than ever that the US will be automatically engaged in the fight should Russia invade a NATO member state.

Putin also seems to have miscalculated on the sanctions front, which will impose a massive cost on Russias economy and could well lead to the gradual collapse of the Russian state despite the countrys significant cash reserves.

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While having appalling consequences for ordinary Ukrainians, the drawn-out Russian invasion has, paradoxically, yielded some benefits for NATO. It has provided an intelligence window for the US and its allies to analyse the performance of Russian military systems and personnel in a combat environment. From the telemetry of cruise missiles to the morale of conscript soldiers, Russias military is now under the microscope of the US and its allies.

The invasion has also allowed real-time assessments of the performance of NATO-certified weapons provided to the Ukrainians for use against Russian systems. Given that these weapons would be used to defend eastern European member states against a Russian ground and air assault, these assessments will be important in NATO planning.

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Putins military blunders give NATO a birds-eye view of Russias capability for a bigger war - but that threat remains real - Sydney Morning Herald