Hochul poised to cement status as New York Democrats’ standard-bearer this week – Politico

I dont see there being much in the way of consternation at this convention, said Bronx Democratic Chair Jamaal Bailey, whose county party is one of many that has backed Hochul. You still take nothing for granted but I dont see it being terribly contested.

Hochul is currently the only one of the five statewide incumbents on the ballot this year with a declared challenge in the primary. New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is running against her from the left, while Rep. Tom Suozzi is coming at her from the right.

The first official step of that primary will be at the Thursday convention.

Gov. Kathy Hochul is poised to easily win the Democratic nomination Thursday at the party's convention in Manhattan.|Hans Pennink, Pool/AP Photo

Any candidate who receives 25 percent of the vote of the roughly 450 Democratic committee members will get an automatic spot on the primary ballot, while the others will be forced to gather petitions.

Any who receives over 50 percent will be dubbed the partys designee, letting them tap into state committee resources and sell themselves to Democratic voters as the candidate preferred by Democratic leaders.

No Democratic gubernatorial candidate has won a primary in New York without being the partys designee since 1982, when Mario Cuomo defeated the party-backed Ed Koch.

In a sign of how likely it is that Hochul will win that label, one of the other candidates has already begun to complain about being pushed out of the process.

During a candidate forum hosted by the partys progressive caucus last week, Suozzi and state party chair Jay Jacobs who ran Suozzis first quixotic campaign for governor in 2006 spent several minutes sniping over Zoom about whether Suozzi would be able to speak at the convention in accordance with years-old party bylaws.

In a recording of the meeting obtained by POLITICO, Jacobs, who has endorsed Hochul and is publicly and privately encouraging Suozzi to drop his bid, said he resented the implication or inference from Suozzis camp that the convention was being rigged.

And so everybodys clear here, the candidate cant speak at the state convention to the state committee people unless they get the 25 percent of the vote, Suozzi told the participants on the call. So theyre not given the opportunity to try and persuade the committee people by the speech they make.

New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams is running in a Democratic primary for governor.|Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The rules are the same as always, Jacobs said, and hes not planning an attempt to change them prior to the Feb. 17 event.

I think its the same thing, Tom, as the Democratic National Committee, you know, the candidates do not get up and speak before the vote is taken, he said pointedly to the U.S. congressman. Youre permitted to communicate with committee people outside the convention but we dont have a long list of speeches.

Jacobs said in the forum that his support of the incumbent governor was an expectation of a party chair and suggested hed do the same for Cuomo. He said on Friday that Suozzi has already had opportunities to interact with state committee members, and he might help organize another such forum outside of the convention.

But the Suozzi campaign on Sunday said that they have been informed that Jacobs has now scheduled a 30-minute session for the candidates to briefly address committee members at the 8 a.m. breakfast on Thursday. Suozzi plans to speak.

Williams has not made rigging claims and will be attending the convention as a New York Democrat, he told reporters in Albany. But he points to the all-but-certainty of Hochuls dominance at the convention, he claimed, as a system built to shut out anti-establishment candidates like himself.

He received 6 percent of the vote at the convention when he ran against Hochul for lieutenant governor in 2018. There have been few signs that he has since made many new inroads among party leaders.

Long Island Rep. Tom Suozzi is running for governor against Gov. Kathy Hochul and New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.|Cheriss May/Getty Images

Progressive Caucus Chair Rachel Lavine contrasted a campaign against Hochul from the left to those against Cuomo in recent years. While the current governor has spent years helping down-ballot Democrats, anger directed toward her predecessor in the past two primaries was often fueled by his lack of eagerness to go to war with Republicans.

Everybody understands what a critical election this is, said Lavine. They appreciate [Hochuls] efforts in helping up and down the ticket.

Neither Suozzi and Williams were ever expecting to dig deeply enough into Hochuls support to get enough support to get on the ballot at the convention, they said in separate interviews, and both expressed confidence in their ability to blitz the petitioning process.

They each point to times theyve accomplished it before Suozzi in 2006 for governor and Williams during his 2018 campaign for lieutenant governor.

Candidates who get on the ballot via the petitioning route need to gather at least 15,000 signatures and need to get at least 100 in half the states congressional districts. Since signatures are often thrown out when challenged, the widely-accepted rule of thumb is that a minimum of 30,000 is needed.

While petitioning can suck up resources and doesnt come with a long track record of success, there are some benefits. For one, it lets candidates run against the machine.

Id rather get shut out by the convention, Mario Cuomos campaign manager his son Andrew once recounted about the 1982 primary. Then I could say the Democratic bosses shut us out.

And having volunteers or employees go door-to-door across the state is far from a complete waste of time for a candidate.

Lavine noted that when she supported Zephyr Teachouts attorney general candidacy in 2018, Teachouts take on it was that there was a benefit to a challenger actually petitioning statewide, because you get to meet everybody statewide.

In 2018, it was actually one of the first jolts to our campaign because it is a good organizing tool, Williams said. So its a glass half full, either which way.

Still, Teachout and Williams lost their primary bids.

Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin speaks to reporters Sept. 22 in the Albany Capital Center.|Bill Mahoney/POLITICO

In the other races, Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin will likely need to face a primary of his own at some point.

But Williams does not seem likely to choose a running mate before the convention. Suozzi might, but it would be a surprise if his pick gained much traction in the next few days.

Schumer was once rumored to be facing a high-profile primary from a progressive like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. But nobody has even made public overtures to such a campaign yet.

James, meanwhile, cleared the field soon after she announced shed be seeking another term rather than challenging Hochul.

And it has been over a decade since any Democrats have made serious noise about challenging Comptroller Tom DiNapoli, who is seeking another four-year term after being appointed to the position in 2007 and has gone on to be the fourth-longest serving statewide lawmaker in state history.

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Hochul poised to cement status as New York Democrats' standard-bearer this week - Politico