COVID-19 deaths still on the rise across Cape Cod and state – Cape Cod Times

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While cases of coronavirus may be on the downswing, COVID-19 deaths on the Cape and across Massachusetts are climbing and most likely will continue to do so in the coming weeks, health officials said.

During the last 14-day interval reported Thursday by the state Department of Public Health, 16 people with COVID-19 in Barnstable County died.

The county 14-day fatality toll reported a week ago on Jan. 13 was even higher, with 21 people dying.

Those sorts of numbers havent been seen on Cape Cod since 18 Cape Codders with coronavirus diedin a two-week periodin late March 2021 during a surge in cases.

Statewide, deaths of people with COVID-19 are in a third wave that on Friday surpassed the daily count recorded in January 2021, when far fewer people were vaccinated than now.

Health officials say that while the hypertransmissible omicron variant may cause less severe disease for most, the sheer number of people being infected means that many susceptible people will have serious illness.

Tracking the virus: Cape records 4,880 new COVID-19 cases in last two weeks

A lot of people are still going to die because of how transmissible omicron has been, University of South Florida epidemiologist Jason Salemi told The Associated Press.

It unfortunately is going to get worse before it gets better.

The AP said models forecast 50,000 to 300,000 more Americans could die of coronavirus by the time the surge subsides in mid-March.

The number of new daily cases on Cape Cod has declined a bit in recent days.

The trend: Barnstable County has 4,540 new COVID-19 cases in 2 weeks more than twice report last week

State Sen. Julian Cyr, D-Truro, estimates that the peak of omicron in Barnstable County was Jan. 3-11, when seven-day case averages crushed previous records and reached into the 400s.

The number of new cases reported Friday, Thursday and Wednesday were 323, 324 and 347 by contrast.

The trend toward hospitalization, intensive care intervention and death tends to trail new case numbers by weeks, said Dr. William Agel, chief medical officer for Cape Cod Hospital and Cape Cod Healthcare.

I dont think were out of the woods yet, Agel said.

The 102 new daily COVID-19 deaths statewidereported by the DPH Fridayrepresents an omicron peak and tops the peak of 94 daily deaths reported Jan. 26, 2021.

Effects of the surge: Record-high COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations on Cape Cod omicron likely the cause

On highly vaccinated Cape Cod, the numbers show a slightly different picture. Death counts, while the highest they have been in months, are not as high as this time last winter.

The number of daily COVID-19 deaths in Barnstable County from early January to mid-February 2021 ranged from the low 30s to the mid-40s.

The 14-day death count didnt drop into the 20s until Feb. 24, 2021,when 24 people with coronavirus on Cape Cod were reported to have died during the preceding two weeks.

Through most of the summer and fall, the Cape's death count remained in the single digits, with an upward trend starting Dec. 23, when 11 people were reported to have died in the past 14 days.

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A difference between this year and last winter is that Massachusetts residents with COVID-19 who are currently dying tend to be younger, said Brennan Klein, a postdoctoral researcher in the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University.

The demographics skew younger than the last wave, Klein said.

During last winters surge from Dec. 1 to Jan. 19, 58.6%of those with COVID-19 who died were over 80 years old, compared to 40.5% during that time period this year, he said.

By contrast, the number of people in the five youngest demographic groups who died during the same periods have more than doubled.

The percentage of those up to 19 years old who died climbed from 0.14to 0.40%.

For those 20to 29 years old, the jump was from 0.52to 1.10%; 30to 39 years old, 0.78to 1.95%; and for 40to 49 years old, 1.46to 3.98%. Those in the 50-59 age group went from making up 3.80% of COVID-19 deaths to 9.95%.

The age groups of 60-69 and 70-79 also comprise more of the COVID-19 death toll, going from 12.65to 16.51% and from 21.97to 25.59%, respectively.

The numbers have a lot to do with case demographics andwho is getting infected, Klein said.

Younger people are less likely to be fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The CDC said last month that about 75% of people who are unvaccinated are under age 50.

Theres a three tofour times higher likelihood of death for unvaccinated people, and thats not even including booster data, Klein said.

The DPH reported that, as of Jan. 15, 5,152,666 people in Massachusetts have been fully vaccinated.Of that number, 348,510 or 6.8% were diagnosed with breakthrough COVID-19 cases,5,437 of whom were hospitalized and 1,244 of whom died.

So far the percentage of those fully vaccinated who have died is 0.02%, state public health officials said.

Klein said he shies away from calling omicron mild. It is quite a risky thing to be infected with.

He said the coronavirus fatality toll will continue to climb for a while since there tends to be lag of as much as four weeks between infection and death.

I expect it will continue to increase over the next two to three weeks, Klein said.

He said people should continue to take preventative measures, including wearing good quality masks and using prudent social behaviors.

Agel said people should get vaccinated and boosted and talk to their physician about alternative treatments if they are immune compromised.

The Associated Press contributed to this story.Cynthia McCormick can be reached at cmccormick@capecodonline.com and @Cmccormickcct.

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COVID-19 deaths still on the rise across Cape Cod and state - Cape Cod Times