Wanted: A genomic map of our third covid wave – Mint

Is the pandemic finally looking to burn itself out? While the weeks trailing average of infections recorded daily has risen above 270,000, what stands out for its absence in Indias third wave is a fatality spike. Nearly three weeks in, our official 7-day curve of lives claimed daily by covid has stayed mostly flat under the 400 level. That this waves chief culprit Omicron sickens us far less than Delta, even as it spreads faster, would appear well borne out by the latest numbers. Reason enough to breathe easier and ease up on covid curbs? Not quite, some would argue. No one is safe until everyone is safe, we await confirmation that Omicron has achieved dominance, and as long as Delta lurks in the air, so do mortal risks. After being caught off-guard by last years horrid outbreak, which was identified as a Delta wave only after it had peaked, administrations across the country seem inclined not to take chances on safety this time. Yet, our lack of clarity on the mix of Sars-CoV-2 variants that Indians are exposed to speaks of yet another surveillance let-down. Unless Indian authorities have held genomic findings back, the scope for good data-driven decisions remains as narrow as before. In a country that boasts of sufficient diagnostic and statistical resources, this is odd indeed.

Our efforts at cracking viral gene codes have been tardy all along, but virus identification by genome sequencing was assumed to have got a major boost in late 2020, when India set up its genome consortium Insacog, with 38 government labs jointly charged with studying the pandemics genetic profile. In theory, representative samples drawn periodically from cases across the nation can offer a dynamic and therefore useful map of which strain is on the loose where. In reality, Insacogs reports on our variant break-up have lagged too far behind to be of policy-input help. Its website features monthly data. Omicron was found to be only a sliver last month; Delta, which made up the bulk of cases identified over May, June and July 2021, had been losing share but saw this trend reverse in November and December. As for the third wave that began this January, we remain mostly in the dark. All that has emerged so far is a stray remark on TV by the chief of our vaccine advisory panel more than a fortnight ago about three-fourths of all cases in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata being Omicron. Insacog, however, seems to be in silent mode, even as experts demand an update.

Insacogs website says it has sequenced about 91,300 genomes in allless than a tenth of the million-plus done by the update-happy UK that has far fewer people. Indias state-wise tallies show sharp variations, explained by big gaps in viral receipts, the inadequacy of which may have been the key problem. Unless data is valued equally by all stakeholders, it is hard to improve. Sadly, covid statistics remain a touchy topic in some parts, made touchier still by compensation claims having exceeded the official toll vastly in states like Gujarat and Telangana. In related news, Delhi has said it plans to identify the strains that had sickened the capitals deceased. This could reveal a bit about peoples health risk, but would hardly suffice. We also need to step up research on long covid, especially the bugs possible effects on organs other than our lungs. A preliminary paper published recently in the West reports some headway made on the brain fog that some patients experience. In India, wed be glad just to get a clear genomic snapshot.

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Wanted: A genomic map of our third covid wave - Mint