Is the 49ers evolution since Week 3 enough to beat the Packers? – Niners Nation

Sitting at 2-0, the 49ers hosted the Packers in their first home game with fans since the 2019 NFC Championship game. The 49ers paid homage to the 1994 team by donning the red throwback uniforms for the first time. It was a nationally televised game on Sunday Night Football.

The table was set for the 49ers, but they came out flat, fell behind 17-0, and their comeback fell short, as Aaron Rodgers and the Packers drove the field for a game-winning field goal in 37 seconds.

If youre a Packers fan, your natural inclination is to use that Packers win as evidence for why they will repeat that performance on Saturday. If youre a 49ers fan, youre hoping the outcome will be different during this weekends NFC Divisional battle.

But how much have the 49ers evolved since that Week 3 loss, and are those differences between the teams enough for San Francisco to advance to the NFC Championship game?

The development of the 49ers pass rush and their improved run defense

In Week 3, the 49ers generated seven pressures against Aaron Rodgers and only sacked the Packers signal-caller once. In the last two weeks, San Franciscos defense has generated 27 pressures and sacked the opposing quarterback 10 times.

Arden Key played three snaps as an edge rusher in that first matchup, whereas now Key is rushing from the inside as an extremely valuable piece on this defensive line.

Samson Ebukam has really developed into a capable rusher off the edge, which simply wasnt the case early in the season as he was still adapting to the role. Arik Armstead played 27 snaps at defensive end in Week 3. Since Week 9, hes exclusively moved inside as a 3T and been dominating. He finished with a season-high six pressures last week vs. Cowboys.

San Franciscos run defense hasnt been emphasized enough, but since Week 10, they have been the best in the NFL. Their rushing defense is No. 1 in the following categories: DVOA, EPA per play, Success Rate, and Explosive Runs allowed.

Theyll face a strong rushing attack, as the Packers are No. 1 in rushing success rate on offense. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will be a load to tackle in the freezing temperatures of Wisconsin, but the 49ers improved defense should be up to the task.

Kyle Shanahans mid-season discovery of 49ers offensive identity

The 49ers were a highly-efficient offense all season long, but they really discovered their offensive identity mid-season in Chicago. Early in the year, it felt like Shanahan was struggling to find a rhythm as a play-caller, balancing Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance.

Halfway through 2021, Shanahan punted the Trey Lance package into the sun, moved Deebo Samuel into his wide-back position, emphasized a run-heavy attack with Elijah Mitchell at the forefront.

Since Week 10, the 49ers offense has taken off to a whole another level. Their offense is second in passing DVOA and sixth in rushing DVOA. The 49ers offense also has the highest rate of explosive passing plays during this span as well. Shanahans bunch is also fourth in EPA per play and sixth in success rate. All of the advanced metrics show that the 49ers have assembled a Top-5 offense (based on efficiency) ahead of the Packers matchup.

Samuel has come into his own as a true running back, Jauan Jennings has developed into a legitimate third-down threat, and Brandon Aiyuk has become the 49ers best route runner. Not to mention George Kittles duality as a receiving or blocking tight end depending on the matchup.

Green Bays abysmal run defense

It doesnt make sense given their personnel, but all the advanced numbers show that the Packers run defense is one of the worst units in football.

Since Week 10, the Packers rushing defense is 27th in DVOA, 27th in EPA per play, 32nd in Success Rate, and 32nd in Explosive Run Plays allowed. They get gashed between every gap and havent been able to contain opposing running backs.

The Browns provided the blueprint for how to attack this Packers rushing defense, gashing them for 219 yards on 25 carries (8.8 yards per attempt). Thats similar to Raheem Mosterts box score from the 2019 NFC Title game.

Its clear how the 49ers are going to attack; its just a matter of winning in the trenches and dominating the blocks up front for San Francisco. If they can control the line of scrimmage, theyll have success running the ball against this Green Bay front.

San Franciscos dominance in the Red Zone

It was pretty clear early on in the season that the 49ers red-zone offense was dramatically improved this season. Its been an area of struggle the last few seasons under Kyle Shanahan for whatever reason. Between George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and the emergence of Jauan Jennings, the 49ers have some legitimate red-zone threats that should keep defensive coordinators awake at night.

Shanahans red-zone offense ranks No. 1 in the NFL this season at 67 percent, while the Packers red-zone defense ranks No. 28. I think its a significant advantage because every time the 49ers get into the red area, theyll look to punch it in for six. Theyve had success all year long doing it, and it seems like the Packers defense has struggled to stop opponents.

Will this be a George Kittle game?

There was a three-week stretch where George Kittle reminded everyone in the National Football League who the most dominant tight end was. He had back-to-back games of at least 150 receiving yards, with three touchdowns, followed up by a 93-yard performance.

Kittles dominance in the run game as a blocker is widely known, but hes been a force as a receiving threat whenever the 49ers have needed it especially on the road.

The Packers have struggled to cover tight ends all season long. Theyre 28th in DVOA when covering opposing tight ends. Kittle caught seven passes for 93 yards in the first meeting this season and has generally had a ton of success against the Packers.

Id expect Kittle to be a major factor over the middle in this game, especially as a big, easy target for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, San Francisco 27

I think the 49ers are the toughest matchup for anyone in the NFL right now. They play a brand of football that travels anywhere and is uncommon in this day and age. San Franciscos physical rushing defense and pass rush should wreak more havoc than it did in Week 3. Their rushing attack should have success against the Packers front and be able to control this game.

The biggest questions to me heading into a game are the same as always:

Its been the same questions with this team all year long. Theyve generally been able to manage it in wins, and when they have lost, its typically been because of one of these three things.

I think they match up very well with the Packers, and I can see them winning this game and advancing to the NFC Championship game. However, at the same time, I dont trust the 49ers offense (especially their quarterback) to put together four quarters of high-level football on the road, and thats the difference in this game.

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Is the 49ers evolution since Week 3 enough to beat the Packers? - Niners Nation