We Kiwis are a content lot, but trouble looms over the horizon – Stuff.co.nz

Damien Grant is a regular columnist for Stuff, and a business owner based in Auckland. He writes from a libertarian perspective and is a member of the Taxpayers Union but not of any political party.

OPINION: We are a content lot. Secure in our Shire as Omicron batters away at our MIQ like orcs raging against the citadel of Minas Tirith. We are remarkably sanguine given what is occurring just over the horizon.

Going about life behind our mighty moat, there is a feeling that we are fine, no matter what happens on the other side of the Misty Mountains.

We need to pay more attention.

READ MORE:* An economic catastrophe is looming* The Reserve Bank is in disarray* Housing rule changes hit retirement plans to help middle-class moaners* The Government's Covid-19 spending will be an economic albatross for decades

There have been enough articles, books and even movies dedicated to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) to fill Lake Taup; yet lost in the sheer volume was where it all began. And it began in the back blocks of American suburbia and the unintended consequences of the US federal governments noble desire to expand home ownership to the poor.

STUFF

Investors now own 36 per cent of all Kiwi homes, new research shows.

This process had a long history over multiple administrations, but one of the regulatory effects was to give banks an incentive to make loans to low-income households. It is clear that this played a role in the development of predatory lending practices, such as teaser and no-doc loans.

Many commentators, myself included, believe that these and similar practices contributed to the sub-prime crisis. Others hotly dispute this.

What isnt contested is that by the mid-2000s America was enjoying a house price bubble. From 2004 the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, which contributed to a fall in house prices and a sharp rise in housing loan defaults. Eventually, a financial house of cards that had been built on institutions who owed these now-toxic loans, fell over.

We know what happened next, but we forget that no one saw the GFC coming. I mean, no one. Not really. It is true there are pundits now pointing to pre-GFC articles predicting some calamity, but there is always some idiot forecasting an economic collapse.

If you dont believe me, just go back and read my last decade of columns. Ive confidently anticipated all sorts of economic disasters that have not occurred. One day I will get something right and will be crowing insufferably about it from that day forth.

My point, which I have taken some time to get to, is that we do not know what will cause the next big thing, because we keep looking back at the last big thing and expecting it to repeat. It rarely does because knowledge works like a vaccine. We see it coming and prepare for it.

We cant stop what we cannot predict.

Because my business and temperament is built around catching the next wave of economic bad news, I am consistently looking for evidence that it is coming, yelling like an exuberant dwarf stumbling over a lost penny when I find it. Predictably I am let down by the failure of the real world to respond appropriately.

As a consequence, I was self-aware enough not to get excited as Evergrande, an incomprehensively massive Chinese developer, fell over this week. Financial journalists appeared even more excited than me as they tapped out breathless stories about the size of the default and the implications for the global economy.

Ng Han Guan/AP

The Evergrande Group headquarters at left is seen near other skyscrapers and construction sites in Shenzhen in southern China's Guangdong province, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021.

I do not think this will amount to anything, because the monetary authorities in Beijing have seen it coming and will have observed how the Americans handled similar defaults. They will probably successfully navigate the financial fallout of Evergrandes demise without their entire economy contracting.

Yet; there is something else occurring in China that isnt being widely reported and, consequently, is more interesting to me. LGFVs, or Local Government Financing Vehicles. Id never heard of this odd financial instrument until I read an article in The Economist during the Christmas break. Now I am seeing them everywhere.

LGFVs became popular in China after the GFC. They are loans raised by Chinese provincial authorities to build infrastructure projects; at least nominally. They are usually off-balance-sheet and secured by the returns from the projects they funded.

According to the South China Morning Post, most of these loans are short-term, while the returns from the projects have proven to be inadequate to cover the debt.

The Economist and others have reported that the scale of these opaque instruments is massive, rising from 16 trillion yuan in 2013 to 53 trillion yuan today. This is equal to half of Chinas GDP.

Local authorities are beginning to default. Assuming that LGFVs constitute a substantial part of a large number of global balance sheets, a systemic China-wide default would have a greater impact on the Chinese economy than the sub-prime loan defaults did in the United States. The sheer scale of the problem could be beyond even Beijings ability to contain.

AP

China's President Xi Jinping.

When we look back at the GFC, it helps to remind ourselves that even though this economic collapse happened on the other side of the Pacific, the contagion spread to our shores. Today our trade with China is considerably more important than our commercial relationship with our American friends. Our exports to the Middle Kingdom are worth around $20 billion annually.

If that market falls over we will lose not just a substantial export market but expect to see a massive repatriation of capital as Chinese investors pull cash out of New Zealand. Readers would be surprised by the extent of Chinese capital propping up large sectors of our economy, especially in construction.

Of course, none of this might happen. Or it could happen tomorrow. What should concern us, sitting smugly behind our quarantined moat, is that we are plugged into a deeply uncertain global economy with risks and potholes that we neither know about nor would really understand if they were explained to us.

Like Frodo and his band of merry halflings we are wandering blissfully into a dangerous environment not really comprehending the risks that abound, and ill-equipped for the challenges certain to be tossed our way. Let us hope that our pluck and charm will serve us as well as it did Tolkiens little creations.

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We Kiwis are a content lot, but trouble looms over the horizon - Stuff.co.nz