Happy new year!
What better way to celebrate than with predictions for the coming year?
Ill start with a prediction you werent thinking about: Ron DeSantis will lose his race for governor of Florida in November.
I see two reasons why DeSantis will lose. First, an awful lot of people have died from COVID-19 in Florida, and thousands more will die in the coming months. Its going to turn out that repeatedly saying stupid things that result in the death of your constituents is not a good political strategy. The friends and families of all those dead people will remember that DeSantis is partly to blame, and theyll hold it against him at the polls.
Couple the COVID-19 problem with DeSantiss likely abortion problem. The Supreme Court will upset the Roe applecart during the first half of this year. DeSantis is pro-life, but Florida generally tilts the other way, and this will pose a problem for DeSantis. Combine a silly response to COVID-19 with a politically untenable response to abortion, and you have the surprise of the season: DeSantis will lose his governors race, and with it any chance to be the Republican nominee for president in 2024.
What other predictions do I have up my sleeve?
My second prediction is less surprising than the first: Liz Cheney will lose her seat in the House of Representatives in November.
I have a lot of respect for Liz Cheney, and probably many elected Republicans respect her, too; they just cant say so out loud. Cheney has made her small mark in the history books by daring to suggest that inciting a crowd to attack Congress is somehow wrong.
But earning your place in the history books and earning votes in todays Republican Party are two different things.
In heavily Republican Wyoming, the person who wins the Republican primary will of course win the general election for a seat in the House of Representatives. But Cheney will not win the primary, and shell be out of office come January.
No surprises there.
Prediction number three: Trumps legal woes will catch up with him in 2022.
A lot of people have been trying to get Trump under oath for a long time: The New York attorney general, many plaintiffs in civil cases, and the like.
Its possible to stall the legal system for a while, but its not possible to block it entirely unless youre the president, which Trump no longer is. Trumps federal lawsuit seeking to prohibit the New York attorney general from deposing Trump is doomed to fail, as anyone whos read the Anti-Injunction Act would know. Trump will be forced to appear for his deposition.
But Trump would be a fool to testify to anything substantive. Hell plead the Fifth Amendment, and then hell say that he never did anything criminal. Hell say he had to plead the Fifth to evade a Democratic witch-hunt.
But thats not all!
The plaintiffs in some of the civil cases will also finally get Trump under oath. Plaintiffs counsel in those cases will know the threat that expansive testimony poses to Trump, so those lawyers will of course encourage expansive testimony.
But thats not all!
The assorted prosecutors investigating Trump will also continue to pursue him during the year. My guess is that at least one of those prosecutors will indict him.
I cant foresee the precise result of all that testimony and all those cases, but it wont be good for Trump.
Finally, COVID.
I must say: I see two possibilities for the pandemic. One possibility is that several billion people are infected with the omicron variant in the coming months. That gives the virus billions of opportunities to mutate. Naturally, it does. Something far worse than omicron emerges from these rampant infections, and were back to April 2020 all over again.
The other possibility is that omicron is in fact less severe than the original virus. Omicron infects billions of people with a less dangerous illness, and those people all develop some level of resistance to future infections. (Health care systems around the world may well be challenged while that process runs its course, but Im looking longer term than that.)
In the United States, Democrats electoral success is tied to how well Biden handles the virus. He cant let the virus run wild and so imposes every vaccine requirement that the courts will permit. The vaccination programs, coupled with the natural spread of the disease, puts the country, and the world, in a much better place by the end of the year.
Although you cant always tell from my columns at Above the Law, Im an optimist.
Im going with the second version of my COVID-19 visions, and Im predicting that the country, and the world, will be nearing the end of the COVID-19 pandemic by December 31, 2022.
And if Im wrong?
Ill be so terribly depressed that my regret for one silly prediction will be lost in the sea of melancholy.
So instead lets end on a bright note: I hope your 2022 is a happy and healthy one! Or, as someone recently said, Stay positive. Test negative.
MarkHerrmannspent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and is now deputy general counsel at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeons Guide to Practicing LawandDrug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy(affiliate links). You can reach him by email atinhouse@abovethelaw.com.
See the original post here:
Four Predictions For 2022 - Above the LawAbove the Law - Above the Law
- Fifth Amendment - The Text, Origins, and Meaning of the ... [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- 5th Amendment - Revolutionary War and Beyond [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Fifth Amendment | Wex Legal Dictionary / Encyclopedia ... [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution ... [Last Updated On: April 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 26th, 2014]
- In NH, Ted Cruz talks Senate race, personal past, 2016 [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Justices suggest public employees' testimony is protected [Last Updated On: April 28th, 2014] [Originally Added On: April 28th, 2014]
- Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- HST 330 fifth amendment presentation - Video [Last Updated On: May 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 1st, 2014]
- Police not sure if Sioux City murder suspect invoked 5th Amendment rights [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2014]
- Christie Ally Samson Refuses to Give Documents to Lawmakers [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2014]
- House votes contempt for ex-IRS official [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- 231-187 vote fell almost entirely along party lines [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- House votes to hold ex-IRS official in contempt [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- House votes to hold ex-IRS official Lois Lerner in contempt of Congress [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- Ex-IRS official held in contempt [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- Judge: Bensalem officials didn't invoke the Fifth [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- House votes to hold Lois Lerner in contempt [Last Updated On: May 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 7th, 2014]
- House holds Lois Lerner in contempt [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2014]
- House votes to hold former IRS official in contempt [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2014]
- Articles about Fifth Amendment - Los Angeles Times [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2014]
- Former PA Chairman Samson Pleads Fifth - Video [Last Updated On: May 9th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 9th, 2014]
- No plans to arrest Lois Lerner, John Boehner says [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2014]
- Im not going to testify: Witness pleads Fifth Amendment during Bangor triple murder trial [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2014]
- GOP-led House votes to hold former IRS official in contempt [Last Updated On: May 13th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 13th, 2014]
- Attorney: Defense told Corso will take Fifth [Last Updated On: May 16th, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 16th, 2014]
- Christie: I knew nothing about plot - Video [Last Updated On: May 21st, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 21st, 2014]
- 2 county workers take 5th - Thu, 22 May 2014 PST [Last Updated On: May 22nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 22nd, 2014]
- Shawn Vestal: County permit clerical mishap raises eyebrows - Fri, 23 May 2014 PST [Last Updated On: May 23rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 23rd, 2014]
- Spokane County workers use Fifth Amendment in back-dating case - Thu, 22 May 2014 PST [Last Updated On: May 23rd, 2014] [Originally Added On: May 23rd, 2014]
- Sexual abuse measure could lead to wrongful convictions, attorneys say [Last Updated On: September 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 1st, 2014]
- 5th Amendment - Laws.com [Last Updated On: September 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 1st, 2014]
- Wildstein takes the 5th - Video [Last Updated On: September 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 1st, 2014]
- Teen charged with killing his mother appears in court [Last Updated On: September 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 1st, 2014]
- New bill a powerful tool to imprison sex offenders [Last Updated On: September 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 2nd, 2014]
- Fifth Amendment (United States Constitution ... [Last Updated On: September 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 2nd, 2014]
- Cristin Milioti in The Good Wife - Julianna Margulies - Video [Last Updated On: September 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 4th, 2014]
- Kansas Supreme Court: Grand jury violated man's Fifth Amendment rights [Last Updated On: September 6th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 6th, 2014]
- GWB probe: Christie says he's not satisfied with unanswered questions [Last Updated On: September 9th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 9th, 2014]
- Texas man's conviction overturned because of Fifth Amendment violation [Last Updated On: September 9th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 9th, 2014]
- "Fifth Amendment" Defined & Explained - Law [Last Updated On: September 9th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 9th, 2014]
- Cop Says 'You Must Be Doing Something Wrong if You Invoke Your Rights' (Video) [Last Updated On: September 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 12th, 2014]
- Public be damned Litchfield latest example [Last Updated On: September 14th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 14th, 2014]
- Volokh Conspiracy: What the posse comitatus case might mean for the future of the exclusionary rule [Last Updated On: September 15th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 15th, 2014]
- Fifth Amendment - Video [Last Updated On: September 16th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 16th, 2014]
- Top 5 Constitution-Related Searches at FindLaw.com [Last Updated On: September 18th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 18th, 2014]
- The Fifth Amendment Eminent Domain - Video [Last Updated On: September 18th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 18th, 2014]
- Apple And Google Will Force A Legal Battle Over The Privacy Of Your Passcode [Last Updated On: September 20th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 20th, 2014]
- Civics- The Fifth Amendment (Sarah Hutchinson) - Video [Last Updated On: September 20th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 20th, 2014]
- GOP fumes over Lerner remarks [Last Updated On: September 22nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 22nd, 2014]
- Google and Apple Wont Unlock Your Phone, But a Court Can Make You Do It [Last Updated On: September 22nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 22nd, 2014]
- Assistant to DeKalb CEO Ellis invokes 5th Amendment 30 times [Last Updated On: September 22nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 22nd, 2014]
- GOP fumes as Lois Lerner talks to press but snubs Congress [Last Updated On: September 24th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 24th, 2014]
- Cry us a river, Lois Lerner [Last Updated On: September 24th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 24th, 2014]
- Can You Go to Jail for Refusing to Testify? [Last Updated On: September 25th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 25th, 2014]
- Fifth Amendment Projectb - Video [Last Updated On: September 25th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 25th, 2014]
- The Commander Cody Band - Take The Fifth Amendment - 8/5/1977 - Convention Hall (Official) - Video [Last Updated On: September 27th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 27th, 2014]
- Joey Gallo Takes The Fifth Amendment - Video [Last Updated On: September 30th, 2014] [Originally Added On: September 30th, 2014]
- Batavia High School teacher John Dryden retires [Last Updated On: October 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 4th, 2014]
- Batavia High School teacher John Dryden retires from school district [Last Updated On: October 4th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 4th, 2014]
- The Fifth Amendment Please Don't Leave Me Now - Video [Last Updated On: October 5th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 5th, 2014]
- Man Denied Fifth Amendment While In Court Wearing Anti-Police Shirt, Still Won His Case (Video) [Last Updated On: October 6th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 6th, 2014]
- Batavia teacher previously involved in Fifth Amendment dispute retires [Last Updated On: October 7th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 7th, 2014]
- INFORMUCATE: THE FIFTH AMENDMENT - Video [Last Updated On: October 8th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 8th, 2014]
- Fairholme Funds Appeals Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Verdict [Last Updated On: October 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 11th, 2014]
- Fresno Police Officer violated fifth amendment at a dui checkpoint. part 2 - Video [Last Updated On: October 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 11th, 2014]
- Fresno Police Officer violated fifth amendment at a dui checkpoint. - Video [Last Updated On: October 11th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 11th, 2014]
- Code cases: Police want phone access, but some pass [Last Updated On: October 12th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 12th, 2014]
- All About - Fifth Amendment to the United States Constitution - Video [Last Updated On: October 16th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 16th, 2014]
- Property Rights | Century Law Group - Video [Last Updated On: October 21st, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 21st, 2014]
- Scott and Crist have heated and personal final debate before November election [Last Updated On: October 22nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 22nd, 2014]
- Agents questioned, Askar takes the Fifth in Trombetta hearing [Last Updated On: October 22nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 22nd, 2014]
- Detective dodges questions about allegations made during rape investigation [Last Updated On: October 25th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 25th, 2014]
- Disciplinary hearing for SB officer moved to later date - Video [Last Updated On: October 26th, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 26th, 2014]
- Court rules: Touch ID is not protected by the Fifth Amendment but Passcodes are [Last Updated On: October 31st, 2014] [Originally Added On: October 31st, 2014]
- Virginia Court: LEOs Can Force You To Provide Fingerprint To Unlock Your Phone [Last Updated On: November 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2014]
- Virginia judge: Police can demand a suspect unlock a phone with a fingerprint [Last Updated On: November 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2014]
- Judge Rules Suspect Can Be Required To Unlock Phone With Fingerprint [Last Updated On: November 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2014]
- Your Fingerprints Belong To Us: Iphone Users Forfeit 5th Amendment 1 - Video [Last Updated On: November 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2014]
- Civil Rights and Civil Liberties - Fifth Amendment - Shh! The Right to Remain Silent - Video [Last Updated On: November 1st, 2014] [Originally Added On: November 1st, 2014]
- All Your Fingerprints Are Belong To Us: iPhone Users Forfeit Fifth Amendment - Video [Last Updated On: November 2nd, 2014] [Originally Added On: November 2nd, 2014]