Is a Trump comeback on the cards? Why 2022 will be crucial for the worlds strongman leaders – iNews

From Russia to China, Brazil, France, India and the US, this year is likely to be crucial in deciding the fortunes of a long list of populist strongman leaders, or leadership contenders. The electoral fortunes of a US president have repercussions across the globe and, if Joe Bidens Democrats slip up this year, it will encourage Donald Trumps hopes of a return to the White House.

As 2021 ended with Mr Biden struggling to get his sweeping $1.9trn (1.4trn) social spending bill through Congress, attention was already turning to the November 2022 US mid-term elections. The loss of either chamber of Congress could signal a return to power in 2024 of the Republican Party, now in thrall to Mr Trumpsanti-democratic populism.

A Trump or Trumpian victory will once again call into doubt Americas commitment to the World Health Organisation, Nato and fighting climate change. Much closer to home, France will be electing a new president in 2022. The centrist populist incumbent Emmanuel Macron has not yet announced he will be running for a second term in the spring election, but pundits expect him to do so.

The first vote be held on 10 April. Should no candidate win a majority, a run-off will be held between the top two candidates two weeks later. The polls point to a Macron victory, but the French presidential election is notoriously unpredictable.

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen was seen as Macrons main rival and projected to join him in the second round of the plebiscite. The 53-year-old is sticking to her preferred themes of immigration and security but has sought to soften her partys image since taking over from her openly racist father changing its name from National Front to National Rally.

But she risks being outflanked on the right by a new personality, Eric Zemmour. Mr Zemmour, an outspoken TV and press commentator, is notorious for his provocations on Islam, immigration and women.

And both extreme-right candidates could now be eclipsed by Valrie Pcresse, a centre-right candidate who won a conservative primary in December. A poll also carried out last month placed her as Mr Macrons main rival, with 17 per cent of the vote. Mr Macron leads with 24 per cent. Mr Zemmour and Ms Le Pen each have 14.5 per cent.

In China, President Xi Jinping should have an easier time securing a third term in office at the Chinese Communist Partys National Party Congress in November. There are predictions that this might be the moment when he announces himself to be president for life. This prospect would alarm US allies, which have already seen Americas global primacy and appetite for foreign military interventions fade in the face of Chinas rise and the USs own failed attempts at regime change in the Middle East.

Whether or not Mr Bidens fortunes improve, uncertainty about Americas long-term commitment to Nato will prompt some EU voices to call for the bloc to boost its own defence capability and independence from the US. But post-Brexit, and with Germany showing little desire to build military capacity in proportion to its economic might, the EU looks set to remain a financial and regulatory superpower.

Americas gaze will be increasingly on the western Pacific. It will place greater stock on relations in Asia, as it looks to Japan and other players to help counter the influence of China. But America, Europe and China are not the only ones who will decide how 2022 turns out. Economically unimportant but well-armed states Russia, and North Korea spring to mind are good at geopolitical mischief.

Hopefully, the massing of Russia tanks on Ukraines borders is merely a bluff to dissuade the West and Nato from building any further links with former Soviet states. But it would be unwise to assume Russia president Vladimir Putins threats against Ukraine and attempts to disrupt Western elections and alliances are simply a vindictive game.

While the West fixates on how to protect Ukraine, the Russian despot can profit from this distraction and hatch other schemes. Certainly, criticism of Mr Putins repressive tactics at home are lost in the noise surrounding the threat of conflict over the border.

The poisoning of opponents abroad, and the persecution of Alexei Navalny, the Russian opposition leader, have underlined how any pretence of accountability for Mr Putin and the inner circle of plutocrats running Russia has vanished. In 2021, Mr Putin threw out constitutional restrictions that demanded he step down in 2024. He can now rule until at least 2036 and probably beyond.

Emerging powers such as India will have increasing influence as the world looks to them to help combat disastrous climate change. India will also celebrate its 75th year of independence on 15 August.

The Covid pandemic made the past year very hard for many of its 1.4 billion inhabitants. But next year questions will be asked with even more urgency about the health of its relatively youthful democracy. Opposition leaders may struggle to rein in Narendra Modi, Indias populist and increasingly authoritarian prime minister. Decent local election results in 2022 will encourage him to stand for a third term in 2024.

Latin America has been shaken by severe Covid epidemics, particularly in Mexico, Peru and Brazil. But the extremes of political populism are taking their toll as well. The skill of Chiles incoming left-wing president Gabriel Boric to combat social inequality while pacifying the countrys strong right-wing constituency will serve as a test for moderation and co-operation across the continent.

In October, Brazil will go to the polls. Far-right incumbent leader Jair Bolsonaro, whose presidency has been stained by corruption and a complacent response to Covid-19, is currently well behind his nemesis, leftist ex-president Luiz Incio Lula da Silva. Much of the world, which has watched in horror as Mr Bolsonaro presided over increased deforestation in the Amazon, will be praying for Mr Lula da Silvas victory.

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Is a Trump comeback on the cards? Why 2022 will be crucial for the worlds strongman leaders - iNews