Truth: Democrats have a white voter problem – Politico

With help from Rishika Dugyala and Teresa Wiltz

Supporters cheer as then-Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin walks onstage at a campaign rally days before the November election. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Hi, hi, Recast family! Maya and Sabrina here filling in for Brakkton this week. (Hes taking a much-needed vacay.) Were sure youve read plenty of the hot takes in the wake of the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial elections last week. And while we expect more takes hopefully with more data in the days and weeks to come, well walk you through some of the biggest takeaways on what Democrats need to be looking at heading into the midterm elections. Lets jump in.

Democrats have a bigger problem than they thought.

Following bruising losses up and down the ballot in Virginia and a too-close-for-comfort win in New Jersey, Democrats are doing damage control. Its going to take some heavy lifting for them to stop the bleeding in 2022. Thats because theyll need to totally rethink and seriously prioritize their strategy to mobilize the constituencies they most need: Black and Latino voters.

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe fell short of the governors mansion by just over 2 points even as turnout among voters of color rivaled the record-breaking figures from 2020, when President Joe Biden won the commonwealth by 10 points. Its leading grassroots organizers, campaign strategists and party leaders alike to reexamine where the party went wrong in the commonwealth.

Then-Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe departs after speaking during his election night event on Nov. 2. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Among the main concerns emerging from the election results: Democrats over-reliance on Black and Latino voters to turn out and counteract overwhelmingly white, Republican enthusiasm. Democrats expect POC voters to show up without making necessary investments to gin up Black and brown turnout, some party officials, consultants and pollsters say. Whats more, they add, the old strategies of outreach last-minute mailers, a handful of Spanish-language ads and visits to Black churches and barber shops are outdated, ineffective strategies in the face of data-driven, well-funded outreach strategies coming from the GOP.

Its like we watch the same movie every election cycle and we expect a different beautiful ending. Every now and then we get one, but oftentimes its not because everything that couldve been done was done on outreach and turnout with people of color, said Julin Castro, former Democratic presidential candidate and Housing secretary in the Obama administration.

That needs to change.

And its not just about outreach. Voters need something to get excited about. That was particularly evident as Republicans drove much of the public debate and Democrats struggled to gain traction with their talking points on policy. Education dominated the Virginia race, as panic over critical race theory a legal academic framework that examines racism in American institutions quickly morphed into a debate around whether parents should control what their children learn in school.

The issue animated the gubernatorial race, as now Gov.-elect Glenn Youngkin promised to ban the teaching of it while McAuliffe waited until weeks before the election to fully address it, handing out copies of Toni Morrisons Beloved. McAuliffe, who launched his campaign on education, also was haunted by a September gaffe during a debate where he said parents shouldnt tell schools what to teach.

All of that led to conditions in Virginia, unfortunately, for the dog whistle politics and the grievance politics, that Glenn Youngkin can perpetuate it to be quite successful, and quite effective, said Terrance Woodbury, A Democratic pollster who studies Black voting behavior.

Now, lets be clear: Democrats loss in Virginia isnt about placing blame on voters of color. The truth is Democrats are bleeding support from white voters.

And that helped Republicans in Virginia, where the electorate that turned out was certainly whiter.

The share of white voters supporting McAuliffe also went down to 38 percent from 45 percent for Biden just a year earlier.

Meanwhile, exit polls in Virginia portrayed dueling narratives with Latino voters in Virginia, as one had Youngkin winning by 12 points while another showed McAuliffe winning by more than 30 points. Democratic pollsters and political insiders, however, say one thing is clear: Latino support for Democrats is eroding and they need to act fast.

The electorate was also older. More than one-fourth of voters were over the age of 65 an age group that leans more conservative up from 18 percent in 2020. Only 10 percent of voters were in the 18-to-29 age range, a group that leaned toward McAuliffe, down from 20 percent in last years election. Exit polls also show a swing among independent voters with a majority voting for Youngkin after a majority backed Biden last year.

Stickers reading "I Voted" are available to those afterwards who cast ballots at the Fairfax County Government Center on Nov. 2 in Virginia's election. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

We know that the party in power in the White House often faces headwinds. At the same time, Im looking for, How do we buck that trend? Castro said. In order to buck that trend, were going to have to drive up turnout among our base. That means you need great candidates, you need well-funded grassroots outreach efforts and you need an appealing record of accomplishment and strong narrative going into 2022.

As always, well be watching to see how this dynamic plays out in 2022 and beyond.

All the best, The Recast team

Power dynamics are changing. With The Recast, you'll get a twice-weekly breakdown of how race and identity are the DNA of American politics and policy. Stay tuned for fresh analysis, scoops and new voices.

Programming note: Brakkton will co-moderate a discussion at POLITICOs inaugural sustainability summit on Nov. 16 about what it will take to achieve a just transition to a clean energy economy. RSVP here.

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THE ROUNDTABLE

Former Democratic presidential candidate Julin Castro speaks at a campaign event in Atlanta in December 2020. | Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

We wanted to dig a little deeper into how the results in Virginia shook out, how much Democrats should be paying attention and how voters of color in the commonwealth could be a bellwether for how the party might perform next November. So we spent some more time on the horn with Woodbury, a Democratic pollste, and Castro, former HUD secretary and 2020 Democratic presidential candidate. And we enlisted Chuck Rocha, a Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to Bernie Sanders. This conversation has been edited and shortened for clarity.

THE RECAST: What demographic shifts did you notice in Virginia in 2021 that Democrats might have underestimated? What could that tell us about next years races?

TERRANCE WOODBURY: We saw the electorate get significantly whiter and significantly older than it was in 2020. I think that shows some underperformance amongst voters of color, primarily Black voters, who both turned out at a lower rate, but also supported Democrats at a lower rate.

JULIN CASTRO: Its clear there was an uptick of white voters in the electorate compared to previous cycles. And also that Youngkin was able to peel off independents who likely had voted for Joe Biden versus Donald Trump and who very well may have voted for McAuliffe in 2013 and Northam in 2017.

CHUCK ROCHA: There was such a hyperfocus on white women. And Terry McAuliffe ran millions and millions of TV commercials targeting white women with the choice issue. So much so that you saw them saying, Dont Texas my Virginia and trying to use that as a motivational factor for white women, when in fact, they dramatically underperformed.

So, you know, saying that this is on Black and brown voters is totally false.

THE RECAST: Did you notice any warning signs with voters of color ahead of the November election? And what were some of your biggest takeaways in either or both New Jersey and Virginia?

WOODBURY: We always say if you're asking the wrong questions, then you're getting the wrong answers, and a lot of pollsters are asking the wrong questions. And, frankly, conventional polling doesn't even include racism and discrimination in most issue batteries.

ROCHA: The biggest thing that we're hearing in the community is that Black and brown people were horribly affected by Covid, because of education, and kids being home from school. So Covid overlaps with the schooling issue, because unlike rich white folks, or you could say just rich folks in the suburbs, [working class] black and brown folks don't have a nanny or don't have the privilege to get to work from home. So the whole family suffered when the child had to stay home. And nobody was talking about that issue in Virginia. And I've heard it in every single focus group of Black and brown voters in almost every state I've worked in.

CASTRO: From both the elections, I took that Republicans were able to control the narrative in Virginia that race became a lot about critical race theory and essentially white identity politics as expressed in whats taught in schools. And in New Jersey, it centered a lot around taxes and thats particular to New Jersey.

THE RECAST: What lessons can Democrats learn from 2021 so not to repeat them in 2022?

CASTRO: Democrats have to enhance the outreach and the resources to drive up registration and turnout, especially turnout among low propensity Latino voters We need a full court press on registration and turnout 365 days a year, not only a few months before an election. And that the agenda of accomplishment in Washington and in state capitals across the country reflects the interests of Latinos and other people of color.

I believe that Jamie Harrison and the DNC get that and that you have a lot of people that do understand the urgency of making these investments and doing the outreach. But sometimes things get lost in the shuffle.

ROCHA: There's a golden rule in politics. And that is you only get one time to make a first impression.

WOODBURY: Democrats often are on the right side of these issues, but not willing to take the bold public stance ... Even when I was focus grouping Democrats who were considering or had already supported Donald Trump, and I asked them, What is it about him? Even after explicit racism, like, demonstrable racism, what is it about him that would make you still want to support him? They say, Well, at least he stands for what he believes in, even if it's wrong. Even if it's unpopular. And that's what they're missing in Democrats, is someone that will stand for them. Even when it's unpopular.

ICYMI @ POLITICO

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Truth: Democrats have a white voter problem - Politico