Phenomenal turnaround: how Australia is vaccinating its way to freedom – The Guardian Australia

Bars and restaurants along Sydneys harbour foreshore bustled with the sounds of clinking glasses and full kitchens as thousands of people poured into venues after Covid restrictions ended this week.

Across the city, cinemas filled up and queues formed outside pubs. Salons buzzed with the sound of clippers as people jumped at the opportunity to tame their lockdown hair. Some beachside restaurants are booked up until February.

Thoughts even turned to travel after New South Wales authorities said they would remove quarantine measures for international arrivals, though federal authorities have the ultimate say.

Dee Irwin, 57, was scheduled to have an appointment for a cut and colour at Luxxe Concept Salon on Sydneys north shore on the day the city was plunged into lockdown. After waiting for five months, she was over the moon about coming back.

When I got the call I nearly had kittens, she said. It was the most exciting call Ive had in the whole of lockdown. I told my husband to stop Netflix It makes such a difference to how you feel when you wake up in the morning.

They were scenes that were almost unimaginable four months ago when a Delta outbreak sent the state of New South Wales into a hard lockdown. Then, Australia was lagging behind the rest of the world with vaccination. Israel had already given more than 60% of its population at least one dose and the US over 40% by the time Australia hit 10%. The outlook was bleak.

But the outbreak spurred the nation into action.

The countrys rollout began in late February and was stymied by delays, supply problems and government missteps. Fifty million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine were ordered and then shelved after changing health advice over links to an extremely rare blood-clotting condition.

Negotiations with Pfizer stalled as government representatives dithered and the prime minister, Scott Morrison, declared the nations vaccine program was not a race.

Public unease towards AstraZeneca compounded delays already made by the decision to secure only 10m doses of Pfizer, a move the companys former president of global research and development, John LaMattina, later described as unconscionable.

The federal government put most of their eggs in the AstraZeneca basket and this became a major problem, Prof Adrian Esterman, the chair of biostatistics at the University of South Australia, said later.

The problem became a public health disaster when one case of Delta leaked into Sydney via aircrew in June and launched an outbreak that could not be controlled.

Covid-19 infections rose steadily, with more than 2,000 new cases a day being recorded nationally throughout October, mostly across Sydney and Melbourne the countrys largest cities and the capital, Canberra, in the countrys worst outbreak since the pandemic began.

Forced to abandon the aim of returning to Covid-zero, vaccination became the only hope for a way out.

For a long time people became complacent, Dr Paul Griffin, an associate professor and infectious disease physician at the University of Queensland, said. The risk-perception was relatively low at the time, he added, describing peoples lack of urgency to get vaccinated, thanks to the protection offered by rigid border controls.

Only once people saw the virus circulating firsthand and saw the consequences did a shift in vaccination uptake begin to change, Griffin said.

Only a few months ago, Australia had the lowest fully vaccinated population in the OECD. As of the end of last week, the nation had risen eight places.

Leading the charge were the Australian Capital Territory, New South Wales and Victoria. Since July, the cumulative total doses administered in the three regions has surged in near-record time compared with other countries at similar times in their rollouts.

In NSW, 91.1% of people over the age of 16 had at least one dose by 14 October, and 76.5% had two. In Victoria, these figures stand at 86.7% and 61.5%.

A staggering 98% of people aged over 12 and living in Canberra, the capital, have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine, and 75.9% have had both. The city is on track to be the most Covid-vaccinated city in the world, and authorities estimate that by November almost all of the territorys population will be fully vaccinated.

Nationally, 83.2% of Australians over 16 have had at least one dose, as of Wednesday, and 64.4% are fully vaccinated, according to the Australian governments Covid-19 vaccine rollout report.

The speed of vaccination uptake allowed those in NSW to enjoy freedom day on Monday. Schools will reopen next week.

Setting vaccination targets at 70% and 80% for reopening certainly incentivised people quite a bit, Griffin said.

Vaccination rollouts have tended to slow as countries approached the 50% mark this was particularly pronounced in the US, which vaccinated 1% of its population every day in April but has stalled since, with less than 56% having received two jabs. The UK also began to slow after hitting its peak in the 20-25% range, and took almost twice as long to go from 45-50% and 50-55% as it managed in its peak.

Australia has bucked this trend but the country is divided. The states of Western Australia and Queensland have the lowest rates of vaccination because they have seen less circulation and impact from the virus. The states are still pursuing Covid-zero and their borders are closed to their neighbours in the south-east.

The states that have been the most impacted [by the virus] have had the most successful rollouts, Griffin said.

Dr Greg Dore, an infectious diseases physician and epidemiologist at Australias Kirby Institute of medical research, described the turnaround in vaccine rates as in one word: phenomenal.

If you went back three or four months, nobody would have anticipated this level of coverage we have now, he said.

Dore credited a mix of government initiatives as well as community leadership, bipartisan support and the urgency created by the Delta outbreak.

Mary-Louise McLaws, a professor of epidemiology at the University of NSW, said: The Delta hotspots in Sydney demonstrated that partnership between the authorities and the community resulted in exceptional vaccination response.

Dore said he was very confident Australia would soon find itself in the top 10 countries of vaccine coverage. The outbreaks have absolutely jet-propelled vaccination uptakes and generated that urgency.

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Phenomenal turnaround: how Australia is vaccinating its way to freedom - The Guardian Australia