It’s shrunk, but the Libs keep their lead in Kitchener bellwether – iPolitics.ca

As the Liberals electoral advantage in seat-rich Ontario has weakened, a new poll of one bellwether riding in Kitchener shows the Liberal incumbents lead is now paper-thin.

A bellwether riding is one that usually indicates an elections overall outcome. In Kitchener Centre, constituents have elected an MP belonging to the party thats won the most seats in seven of the eight elections since the riding was first contested in 1996.

As of Tuesday Day 10 of this election incumbent MP and Liberal candidate Raj Saini was in position to win re-election, albeit by a close margin and after a shrunken lead,according to a voter survey by Mainstreet Research.

When the riding was surveyed on Aug. 13, the Liberals were ahead of the second-place Conservatives by eight percentage points (this poll included 27 per cent undecided voters).

But in a survey of Kitchener Centre voters on Tuesday, although 16 per cent remained undecided, the Liberal lead over the Conservatives had been reduced to two points.

The Liberals lead over the NDP had also shrunk, remaining at just over five points. The NDP had been 15 percentage points behind the Liberals when Mainstreet surveyed voters on Aug. 13.

In the latest poll of Kitchener Centre, the Liberals lead widens only slightly when considering just leaning and decided voters. Thirty per cent of these voters said theyd vote Liberal; 25 per cent said theyd vote NDP; another 25 per cent said theyd pick the Conservative candidate; and 13 per cent said theyd back the Green one. One per cent said theyd vote for the Peoples party, and seven per cent intend to vote for a different party.

Based on what typically would be the margin of error for a survey the size of the one Mainstreet conducted in Kitchener Centre, the Conservative and NDP candidates are both within range of winning it.

Mainstreets most recent survey was of 280 adults in Kitchener Centre who were chosen to reflect the ridings voting population. For a group of this size, the margin of error would usually be plus or minus 5.9 per cent, at a confidence level of 95 per cent. Because the poll was conducted using both automated telephone calls and online sampling, a proper margin of error cant be applied to it.

Running against Saini in Kitchener Centre are: Conservative candidate Mary Henein Thorn, NDP candidate Beisan Zubi, Green candidate Michael Morrice, and Peoples party candidate Diane Boskovic.

When he was first elected in 2015, Saini won with 49 per cent of the vote. In 2019, he was re-elected with 37 per cent.

Morrice, who was also the Green candidate then, placed second in 2019 with 26 per cent of votes.

Former MP Stephen Woodworth, whose victory in 2008 ended the Liberals 11-year control of Kitchener Centre, twice came up short as the Conservative candidate in the riding. In 2015, Woodworth finished second, with 30 per cent of the vote, and, in 2019, he came in third with 24 per cent.

Mainstreets survey of Kitchener Centre reflects what could be among this elections most consequential trends: a resurgence of support in Ontario for the Conservatives. The Liberals won the last two elections, thanks in large part to strong support in Ontario. Since this election was called, support for the Liberals has fallen in Canadas largest province, with Mainstreet now measuring nearly equal support in Ontario both in terms of the projected popular vote and seats won.

The recent poll of Kitchener Centre reflects another trend in this election: stronger support for the NDP, in part at the expense of less support for the Greens.

This story was copy-edited after publication.

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It's shrunk, but the Libs keep their lead in Kitchener bellwether - iPolitics.ca