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Svalbard, an Arctic archipelago that is home to more polar bears than people, is poised to become the scene of a cod war between Norway and the EU.
In the coming weeks, EU fishing vessels risk being seized in waters off Svalbard and their owners prosecuted because Norway says they have used up their quotas. The debate over permitted catches is an inflammatory legacy of the way the EU reallocated fishing quotas around the Continent after Brexit, and the Norwegians argue that Brussels illegally awarded itself a larger trawl of Svalbard's fish than it was entitled to.
There is no basis in international law for the European Union to set quotas in Norwegian waters, Audun Halvorsen, state secretary to the Norwegian minister for foreign affairs, told POLITICO.
In diplomatic correspondence, Brussels and Oslo accuse each other of breaching international law in trying to determine the new cod catch.
The politically influential fishing industry is at the center of the dispute, but geopolitics lurk in the background. Norway is suspicious that the EU is trying to lay down legal precedents for exercising its interests in the increasingly strategic Arctic, where global warming is opening up more opportunities in terms of shipping routes and the development of natural resources.
In the diplomatic correspondence, seen by POLITICO, Norway has noted the interest the EU has increasingly taken towards the Arctic," and warns that the messy legal tussle could have "foreign and security policy implications."
The divorce deal between Brussels and London triggered the conflict with Norway. The EU and the U.K. agreed to a carve-up with each other of their existing fisheries quotas, which determine how much fish of each species can be caught. As part of that post-Brexit deal, Brussels allocated 24,645 tons for EU vessels fishing off Svalbard.
These numbers were immediately disputed by Norway. Oslo insists it has the exclusive right to regulate fishing in the area and reduced the EU catches around Svalbard to almost 18,000 tons.
Controlling the resources in our national waters is a matter of fundamental national interest, as it is for the EU and its member states in EU waters, said Norway's Halvorsen.
Brussels challenged the Norwegian quota by referring to the Svalbard Treaty. That treaty, which was signed in Paris in 1920, puts limitations on Norwegian sovereignty over the archipelago. In its diplomatic communication, the EU argued Norway has discriminated against Brussels in favor of Norwegian and Russian vessels.
EU Fisheries Commissioner Virginijus Sinkeviius assured industry in a letter in April, seen by POLITICO, that he will support the legitimate rights of the European Fishing Industry and that the Commission is analyzing appropriate measures to counter the discriminatory measures by Norway.
But Oslo is sticking to its guns.
After meeting Sinkeviius in February, Norwegian Fisheries Minister Odd Emil Ingebrigtsen called the EUs quota setting completely unacceptable behavior and said that any fishing beyond Norways quota allocations will be illegal fishing and will be enforced by the coast guard in the usual way.
While the EU accused Norway of breaking international law, Oslo smashed the ball right back in Brussels' court, according to the diplomatic correspondence, by stating that the EUs communication contains elements that could be read or interpreted as supporting views that would undermine legal certainty and predictability, jeopardize effective environmental controls and responsible resource management, and in its logical conclusion, could give rise to potential foreign and security policy implications.
Until now, the cod war between Norway and the EU has been a cold war, limited to heated diplomatic exchanges.
But that is about to change now that fishing quota are running out and EU vessels risk arrest and prosecution. Norway insists enforcement of the quota is fundamental to sustainable management of fisheries resources, said Halvorsen.
Industry officials from Germany, Spain, Portugal, France and Poland are gearing up for a fight, signaling that they have no intention of marching to Oslos tune. Spain's agriculture ministry said it had joined Germany, France and Portugal in sending a letter to Sinkeviius urging "the Commission to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of the European Union in the face of a unilateral decision by Norway in violation of international law."
"For the EU's own credibility, it must ensure that its partners respect their commitments," the ministry in Madrid added.
We are not going to give up our quota, said Ivn Lpez, chairman of the Long Distance Advisory Council and president of the Spanish Cod Association. We will keep fishing until the EU tells us we have exhausted our quota or until Norway stops us.
Diek Parlevliet, chairman of the European North Atlantic Fisheries Association, reckoned the quota would be reached around the third week of August.
If Norway seizes boats, Parlevliet argued the EU should impose an import ban for Norwegian cod. Trade restrictions are the EUs only weapon. But of course, we hope for a diplomatic solution before there are any arrests.
Parlevliet and his colleagues dont understand Norway's game. The amounts that we are talking about are hugely important to prevent our whole business model from collapsing," he said. "For us cod fishers, its to be or not to be. But for Norway, it doesnt make sense to start a trade war with their biggest import market over a couple of thousand tons of cod.
Lpez also had trouble understanding why Norway would be willing to risk its relationship with the EU over 5,000 tons of cod, especially when they have quotas of almost 400,000 tons ... It makes no sense, he said.
He hinted that Oslo may have its eyes on something more than cod since the 1920 treaty regulates all natural resources in the archipelago.
Its easier and cheaper to argue about cod than about more valuable resources, Lpez said. Lets remember, for example, that Norway just announced 164 new oil exploration blocks in the Arctic which would be precisely these waters. It is clear that there are mining interests.
Brussels warned Norway in its latest diplomatic communication in June that the enforcement of the new quota would hurt overall EU-Norway relations.
But while threatening to take all necessary remedial countermeasures in respect of Norway, it failed to specify what those countermeasures would be.
A European Commission spokesperson said that the EU believes that the correct implementation of the Paris Treaty is in the interest of all parties, including Norway and that contacts with Norway continue.
Industry officials point out that Norway is in the midst of a campaign for an election in mid-September. The Commission might want to wait until Norwegian politicians have a little more political room for maneuver. But in the meantime, fishermen face a real threat of prosecution, on top of economic insecurity.
When asked about the impact of the cod war on EU-Norway relations, Halvorsen said both countries are longstanding strategic partners with shared values, and we work closely together to find joint solutions to common challenges, which the breadth of our relationship is testament to.
But those comments don't sit well with fishermen.
If the way for one party to win the elections is to spite the EU and break the future of its cod fleets, it doesnt signal that relations with Norway are as honest as they should be, said Lpez.
Read more:
EU faces Arctic cod war with Oslo over post-Brexit rights - POLITICO.eu
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