Americans Are Worried About Crime, But That Doesnt Mean Theyre Blaming Democrats – FiveThirtyEight

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Rising murder, aggravated assault and auto theft rates have increased concern about crime among the American public. According to polling from YouGov/The Economist, the share of Americans who say crime is the most important issue facing America has increased since President Biden took office to a greater degree than any issue except national security. Relatedly, a May 22-25 Fox News poll found that 73 percent of registered voters thought there was more crime nationwide than there was a year earlier. Only 17 percent thought there was less crime, and 7 percent thought the level of crime had stayed about the same.

Fewer, but still a majority, believed crime was up in their local area, too: 54 percent, compared with 28 percent who thought there was less crime in their area and 15 percent who thought it was about the same. (Its worth noting, though, that Americans perpetually believe that crime is on the rise, even when it is not.)

A Gallup poll earlier this year also found that only 27 percent of Americans were satisfied with the nations policies to reduce or control crime, and that 65 percent were dissatisfied. Thats a big change from 2020, when 47 percent were satisfied and 49 percent were dissatisfied.

Altogether, this has sparked a narrative that the rise in violent crime poses a political problem for Democrats, who are the ruling party and also traditionally perceived as softer on crime. But at this point, its not really clear that the crime issue will hurt Democrats and anti-police progressives politically. For starters, Americans are actually pretty divided on what the best solution to stopping crime is. In a YouGov/Yahoo News poll from May 24-26, 32 percent of adults said that law enforcement is not tough enough on most offenders but about the same amount, 27 percent, said law enforcement is too tough on most offenders. (Eighteen percent thought law enforcements level of toughness was about right, while 22 percent werent sure.)

The public is also pretty sharply divided on whether Democrats or Republicans are better on the issue of crime. When asked whether Biden or former President Donald Trump has done a better job handling crime, 34 percent of respondents to the YouGov/Yahoo poll said Trump, while 32 percent said Biden. (Fifteen percent thought the two were about equally good on crime.) Of course, this just mirrors peoples existing partisan preferences a majority of Republicans preferred Trumps handling, while a majority of Democrats preferred Bidens but that just bolsters the theory that crime isnt an issue thats changing anybodys mind.

Similarly, in elections so far in 2021, it also doesnt look like crime is driving voters toward more conservative candidates. True, this weeks Democratic primary for mayor of New York City focused heavily on crime, and the winner was most likely Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams, arguably the races most pro-police candidate. But there are plenty of counterexamples: In the Democratic primary for Philadelphia district attorney, incumbent Larry Krasner the George Washington of the progressive criminal-justice movement handily defeated a moderate who attempted to tie Krasners policies to Philadelphias rising crime rate. And in this months special election for New Mexicos 1st Congressional District, the Republican candidate ran what was virtually a single-issue campaign on crime and policing issues; Democrat Melanie Stansbury ended up winning by 25 percentage points, exceeding the districts D+18 partisan lean.

Its possible crime emerges as a wedge issue in the 2022 midterms. But so far, theres little evidence that it is helping one party over the other.

According to FiveThirtyEights presidential approval tracker, 52.6 percent of Americans approve of the job Biden is doing as president, while 42.2 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of +10.5 points). At this time last week, 51.9 percent approved and 42.0 percent disapproved (a net approval rating of +9.9 points). One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 54.3 percent and a disapproval rating of 40.3 percent, for a net approval rating of +14.0 points.

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Americans Are Worried About Crime, But That Doesnt Mean Theyre Blaming Democrats - FiveThirtyEight