Did COVID-19 originate with bats or scientists? Most experts continue to contend that the most likely origin of SARS-CoV-2 (the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19) is a natural zoonotic spillover event between an animal reservoir (most likely bats) and humans. But over the last year of the pandemic, another theory has gained momentum: The SARS-CoV-2 virus may have resulted from an accident in a laboratory in China where scientists were working with closely related viruses. In the wake of the World Health Organization-led mission to Wuhan to examine the origins of the pandemic, proponents of the lab-leak theory have charged the investigative team with conflicts of interest, and suggested that the teams efforts failed to rule out the possibility of a lab release. Some have gone on to claim that scientists have maintained a conspiracy of silence about the possibility of a lab release in order to protect their funding or avoid a backlash from their government.
The desire to identify the origins of the novel coronavirus is perfectly understandable. COVID-19 has killed millions of people and upended everyday life. Theres an intuitive sense that finding out how the pandemic began might help to prevent another one from occurring. The Biden administration is redoubling efforts to determine the origins of COVID-19 after the intelligence community indicated that it had insufficient information to make a determination.
However, while answering the question of where the novel coronavirus came from is important, many of the most important policy decisions the United States needs to make to prevent future pandemics do not depend on viral origins. Very little about pandemic response or preparedness for future pandemics turns on the particulars of how this one started. Laboratory biosafety was already an issue before the pandemic, and the origins of this particular virus dont change the need for reform to prevent these rare but potentially catastrophic events. Regardless of how COVID-19 began, U.S. policy priorities should focus on both identifying and preventing the spread of zoonotic pathogens and bolstering safety and security in high-containment laboratories.
Preparing for the Next Pandemic
Whatever the origins of this pandemic, the United States has its work cut out to prepare for the next one. Lets assume, for the sake of argument, that the lab hypothesis is true. Efforts to prepare for natural spillover events do not then become less important. Since the 1940s, roughly 350 emerging infectious diseases have been identified. Of these, nearly three-quarters have zoonotic origins. Our understanding of how such diseases emerge is incomplete, but we know that there are a number of human behaviors that are likely contributing to this pattern: increasing demand for animal protein, factory farming and other agricultural intensification measures, wildlife trade, urbanization, extraction industries, changes in the food supply chain, and pet ownership, as well as increases in temperature, humidity, and other factors related to global climate change. Zoonotic crossover events are not limited to China, or even to Asia. Emerging infectious diseases have appeared all over the world: Zika in Latin America, Ebola virus disease in sub-Saharan Africa, H1N1 in bird reservoirs as disparate as Vietnam or Mexico; and henipaviruses in Australia. Coronaviruses have reservoirs in China, yes, but also in Africa, the Americas, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.
If investigators are able to conclusively prove that the COVID-19 pandemic originated in a laboratory conducting research into coronaviruses, humanity will continue to confront the risk that a future spillover will result in another pandemic that is equally or more devastating. Fortunately, there are steps that the scientific community can take to manage this risk, including using predictive surveillance and developing other zoonotic risk-assessment tools. Early detection of such pathogens can help experts to isolate and contain them so that they do not spread widely. We can also promote behavioral change in high-risk populations and fund research into universal vaccines for zoonotic frequent-flyers like coronaviruses.
Lets say the converse is true, however. If evidence is found that satisfies even the most ardent lab-leak proponent that COVID-19 originated in an animal population, does that obviate the need to address laboratory biosafety and biosecurity? Absolutely not. Even as COVID-19 emerged, questions arose about the role of high-containment labs around the world. As the number of these labs increases, the risk of a consequential accident also increases.
Policymakers have debated biological safety in high-containment labs for most of this century. Biosafety, biosecurity, and awareness-raising among life scientists are ongoing topics of discussion at the Biological Weapons Convention. Biosafety is a major focus in the Global Health Security Agenda. The World Health Organization has maintained a guide for the responsible conduct of life sciences research with dual-use potential for more than a decade. In short, biosafety and biosecurity receive significant policymaker attention at the highest levels of international organizations, but that awareness doesnt necessarily translate into national-level action to manage biological risk and ensure protection from accidents. Even the states that have been most vocal in driving discussion of biosafety and biosecurity in international spheres have struggled with their own biorisk management. The United States has had a number of high profile laboratory incidents over the years, involving anthrax, highly pathogenic avian influenza, and smallpox, even as it has continued to develop and expand its high-containment lab capacity already the largest in the world.
Transparency and Biosecurity
Critics might claim that lab releases in the United States can be investigated transparently, while the potential COVID-19 release in China cannot. Indeed, China has put severe restrictions on research into the origins of the virus and prohibited scientists from speaking with journalists. During the World Health Organization-led investigation, members of the team were prevented from accessing patient data and other important research. After Australia pressed for an independent inquiry into the origins of the pandemic, China responded with threats and economic retaliation.
However, opacity surrounding public health is not a problem that is limited to authoritarian societies like China. Globally, biosafety norms are poorly implemented and reviews of biosafety and biosecurity are often conducted in secret. Even in the United States, there is no coordinated approach to laboratory biosafety or reporting laboratory accidents. As a result, public awareness of biosafety incidents often relies on local engagement between towns and specific labs, or comes from journalists filing Freedom of Information requests. The U.S. Government Accountability Office has consistently criticized U.S. biological security and safety for decades, but even recent developments in regulating the funding of potentially high-consequence gain of function research have been criticized as lacking transparency around the makeup of the review board, decision-making procedure, and notification of funded experiments. If this is the case for the United States, it is easy to imagine that other countries with less experience with biosafety and security might see it as politically advantageous to remain mum about incidents or problems. Clearly, more work is needed around the world to make sure that all countries have biorisk management policies and appropriate oversight measures in place, and that theyre open about the problems they encounter and their efforts to solve them.
Global norms and incentives are where the rubber hits the road for pandemic preparedness. Its reasonable in fact, vital to seek new ways to prevent laboratory accidents in the future. The worlds chief solution to this pandemic was the development of vaccines, a process driven by life sciences research, much of which took place in high-containment labs. Consequently, many political leaders may well choose to invest in more high-level biological research in the near future. If the solution to a lab release is more laboratory science, it makes sense to ensure that that science is carried out in a safe and secure manner. There is room for all countries to do better, and the United States should consider revitalizing its approach to promoting biosafety and biosecurity in the wake of the pandemic regardless of its origins.
As a final point, if the lab release hypothesis is true, we really shouldnt be surprised. An analysis in 2016 of gain of function research by Gryphon Scientific operated on the assumption that, eventually, a laboratory release of a potential pandemic pathogen would occur, a small number of those would lead to a local cluster, and a small number of those would seed a global pandemic. In other words, if COVID-19 did result from a lab release in China, it might simply have been bad luck, on top of whatever biosafety lapses China may have had which is all the more reason why, in addition to strengthening laboratory safety and security, the international community should do everything it can to develop appropriate infrastructure to handle a future pandemic.
Looking Ahead
There is one important scenario in which it would be absolutely vital to know the origins of COVID-19 in order to decide what to do next. If, as some scientists and politicians have suggested, the pandemic stemmed from a deliberate attempt to develop a biological warfare agent, this would have serious implications for the Biological Weapons Convention and the broader norm against the use of disease as a weapon. If a state party had violated its commitment to the treaty by developing biological weapons, the international community would need to determine how to hold that government accountable for its non-compliance a process with which states parties to the treaty have struggled in the past. Even treaties that have extensive verification provisions have grappled with what to do when a state party has demonstrably violated a treatys prohibitions. While some might criticize the Biological Weapons Convention for lacking a mechanism to verify compliance, such mechanisms dont solve the knotty political problem of what to do when flagrant violations take place. Moreover, the deliberate use of biological weapons could inspire copycat behavior by others, leading to the weakening of the norm against the use of disease as a weapon. Fortunately, to our knowledge no serious analysis of COVID-19s origins even from those who support a laboratory release hypothesis has concluded that anyone deliberately introduced the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the global population.
While its important to discover the origins of the pandemic, theres a danger in taking these efforts too far. Some have argued that conclusively demonstrating the pandemics origins in a lab release might help nations seeking to encourage China to pay financial reparations for the global economic cost of the virus to make their case. This could be a problematic approach. Not only is there no legal precedent under international law to hold a country liable for a pandemic, but in the long run this might be an unwise road for the United States, given its own history of laboratory accidents and safety lapses. Insisting that China bears responsibility for the pandemic and should be expected to pay compensation to other countries or the families of coronavirus victims could backfire in the future if the United States finds itself attempting to mitigate the consequences from a laboratory accident. Furthermore, legal efforts to blame China could fuel additional xenophobia against Asian-Americans, or even undermine U.S. foreign policy interests.
Meanwhile, the focus on where the virus came from should not divert attention from whats even more important preparing for the next pandemic. Political finger-pointing might make it far more difficult for researchers to collaborate internationally on pandemic preparedness efforts. Experts are already noting the possible implications for the National Institutes of Health and other research institutions of the growing tension between the United States and China, exacerbated by the allegations and skepticism around the viruss origins. This pandemic is far from over, despite the rollout of vaccines in the United States, and new potential pandemic diseases are already testing global health efforts elsewhere in the world. American experts therefore need to keep a laser-like focus on the real enemy: the causative agents of disease.
There will be far more blame to share if the international community becomes so fixated on the circumstances surrounding this unique case that its unable to see the big picture and predict or prepare for the next pandemic. Theres work that can be done in that respect while maintaining agnosticism about the origins of COVID-19. Regardless of the source, we need to be better prepared to respond to the next virus.
Amanda Moodie is a policy fellow at the National Defense Universitys Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD Center) in Washington, D.C. Her policy support at the center focuses on the international legal regimes that regulate the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons. She regularly serves as a member of the U.S. delegation to meetings of the states parties of the Biological Weapons Convention.
Nicholas G. Evans is an assistant professor in the Department of Philosophy at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, where he teaches biomedical ethics and security studies. He has been published in the British Medical Journal, Nonproliferation Review, and ELife. His book, The Ethics of Neuroscience and National Security, was released with Routledge in May 2021.
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not an official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.
Image: Xinhua (Photo by Fei Maohua)
Read the rest here:
The Origin of COVID-19 and Preventing the Next Pandemic - War on the Rocks
- Let's hear scientists with different Covid-19 views, not attack them - STAT [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Why are more men dying from COVID-19? - Livescience.com [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Doctors find more cases of 'COVID toes' in dermatological registry. Here's what they learned. - USA TODAY [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- North Dakota reports 24th COVID-19 death as drive-up testing is underway in Bismarck - Bismarck Tribune [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- WHO and European Investment Bank strengthen efforts to combat COVID-19 and build resilient health systems to face future pandemics - World Health... [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- COVID-19: Could Europe's countries be flattening the curve? - World Economic Forum [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Nine new COVID-19 deaths reported in NH Friday - The Union Leader [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 1 May 2020 - World Health Organization [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Where The Latest COVID-19 Models Think We're Headed And Why They Disagree - FiveThirtyEight [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- US consumers rush to buy meat amid concerns over Covid-19 shortages - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- The effect of human mobility and control measures on the COVID-19 epidemic in China - Science Magazine [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Gov. Kate Brown Lays Out COVID-19 Testing And Contact Tracing As Keys To Reopening Oregon - OPB News [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Britons will suffer health problems from Covid-19 for years, warn doctors - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Congress is investigating cruise ship company Carnival over COVID-19 outbreaks - The Verge [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- COVID-19 death reported in Dakota County Saturday; believed to be Tyson worker - Sioux City Journal [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Antibody, Antigen And PCR Tests For COVID-19: Know The Differences : Shots - Health News - NPR [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Russia now has second-highest rate of Covid-19 spread as other countries ease restrictions - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- New Hanover County tests more than 180 people for COVID-19 in first week - WWAY NewsChannel 3 [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- A service trip to Peru offers lessons for treating Covid-19 in the US - STAT [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- How Long Does COVID-19 Coronavirus Live On Clothes? How To Wash Them - Forbes [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- COVID-19: What you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic on 2 May - World Economic Forum [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, Governor Cuomo Announces Results of Completed Antibody Testing Study of 15000 People Showing 12.3 Percent of... [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus Update (Live): 3,173,442 Cases and ... - zonix.net [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- How Patients Die After Contracting COVID-19, The New ... [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus gets official name from WHO: COVID-19 [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Symptoms and causes ... [Last Updated On: May 2nd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 2nd, 2020]
- Mick Jagger and Will Smith to perform in India Covid-19 concert - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Where did Covid-19 come from? What we know about its origins - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Apple and Google release first seed of COVID-19 exposure notification API for contact tracing app developers - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- IDPH reports one McHenry County COVID-19 death Saturday, bringing total to 39 - Northwest Herald [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Poor air quality has been linked to Covid-19 impacts. Trump's EPA is still limiting pollution restrictions. - CNN [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Janesville hospitals hoping to add on-site COVID-19 test processing - Janesville Gazette [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- After Covid-19: How will a socially distanced high street actually work? - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Drive Thru Covid-19 Testing Hosted in Cleveland - WDEF News 12 [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Majority of Alexandria COVID-19 deaths were in long-term care sites, as city seeks better pay, benefits for workers - WTOP [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Covid-19 in prisons and meatpacking plants shed a light on Americas moral failures - Vox.com [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- While the west fixates on Covid-19, vulnerable countries pay the price - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Anger as Italy slowly emerges from long Covid-19 lockdown - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- The Health Department confirms 22 new cases of COVID-19 - ConchoValleyHomepage.com [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- 50th COVID-19 death reported in WV - WSAZ-TV [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- Illinois Seeing More and More COVID-19 Cases as Testing Continues to Increase - WTTW News [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- COVID-19: Why Does the Disease's Name Matter? | Time [Last Updated On: May 3rd, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 3rd, 2020]
- COVID-19: What you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic on 1 May - World Economic Forum [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- More than 300,000 UK smokers may have quit owing to Covid-19 fears - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- How Cybercriminals are Weathering COVID-19 - Krebs on Security [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- You don't need an appointment to get tested for COVID-19 at this site on Monday - KMOV.com [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- More than 1 Million People Recover from COVID-19 : Coronavirus Live Updates - dineshr [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Employers Could Terminate Your 401(k) Plan Due to COVID-19. What to Do if It Happens. - The Motley Fool [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Port Huron offering city employees voluntary furloughs in wake of COVID-19 - The Times Herald [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Greater Lansing sees one more COVID-19 case and no further deaths - Lansing State Journal [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- These Scientists Saw COVID-19 Coming. Now They're Trying to Stop the Next Pandemic Before It Starts. - Mother Jones [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Museum of Covid-19: the story of the crisis told through everyday objects - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- No new COVID-19 deaths reported in Oregon - KGW.com [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- The roads into this New Mexico town remain closed as lockdown is extended to slow Covid-19 outbreak - CNN [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- New Zealand records first day with no new Covid-19 cases since before lockdown - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Amid Ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic - ny.gov [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Travel - The indigenous communities that predicted Covid-19 - BBC News [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Covid-19s Race and Class Warfare - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- The Covid-19 Riddle: Why Does the Virus Wallop Some Places and Spare Others? - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- Singapore Was Praised For Controlling Coronavirus. Now It Has The Most Cases In Southeast Asia : Goats and Soda - NPR [Last Updated On: May 4th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 4th, 2020]
- ICUs Transformed To Care For COVID-19 Patients : Shots - Health News - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Family devastated after father dies of COVID-19 can only comfort mother from a distance - INFORUM [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- One of Trumps personal valets tests positive for Covid-19 - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Clinical trials press on for conditions other than COVID-19. Will the pandemic's effects sneak into their data? - Science Magazine [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Medical delivery drones are helping fight COVID-19 in Africa, and soon the US - World Economic Forum [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- How Lyft intends to navigate and survive COVID-19 - TechCrunch [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- How a New Mexico hospital rebelled against its bosses as Covid-19 hit - The Guardian [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Tell the Stories of the New Yorkers Lost to COVID-19 - THE CITY [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- COVID-19 update: South Dakota death toll up to 31, active cases at 846 as 698 new test results announced - KELOLAND.com [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Covid-19 Parties Probably Didnt Involve Intentional Spread - The New York Times [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Is It COVID-19 Or Something Else? What Experts Are Learning About Symptoms : Goats and Soda - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- China Says It Contained COVID-19. Now It Fights To Control The Story - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- COVID-19 Is The End Of The Higher Education Buffet - Forbes [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Covid-19 taking toll on blues community - CNN [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- U.S. Field Hospitals Stand Down, Most Without Treating Any COVID-19 Patients - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Even for a nurse who has dealt with infectious diseases, COVID-19 is scary; National Nurses Week - PennLive [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Mental health care will undergo a revolution post COVID-19 - World Economic Forum [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Mystery Inflammatory Syndrome In Kids And Teens Likely Linked To COVID-19 - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- Do Antibodies Against The Novel Coronavirus Prevent Reinfection? : Shots - Health News - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]
- 'This Is ... Personal': After Surviving COVID-19, A Mom And Daughter Mourn Loved Ones - NPR [Last Updated On: May 8th, 2020] [Originally Added On: May 8th, 2020]