Understanding the Capitol riot suspects and their motivations – TribLIVE

Three months after a group of rioters attempted to halt the certification of the presidential election results by breaching the U.S. Capitol, 401 people have been arrested.

Of those, Pennsylvanias 38 arrests rank behind only Texas and Florida, with 39 each. Eleven of those charged in Pennsylvania come from the federal western district.

Robert Pape, a political scientist from the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the University of Chicago, has thus far conducted three studies on the riot, including reviewing the demographic study of those arrested.

He says a fine-grained understanding of who broke into the Capitol on Jan. 6 and the nature of the insurrection movement is necessary to reduce the risk of future violence.

Pape uses this analogy: The United States is a patient, and the riot is a tumor.

The tumor could be benign and never cause any trouble, or it could be malignant and spread and worsen over time.

In medicine, Pape said, doctors would study the mass biopsy it, dissect it, analyze it to understand its potential impact.

The same things need to happen with the Capitol riot, he said.

You care because the patient is sick, Pape said. And the patient is us.

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The Chicago Project attempted to identify common denominators among those arrested by looking at things like residence, age, employment and election results.

Nationally, their studies found that some 67% were 35 or older; 44% either owned their own business or worked in white-collar jobs, including physicians, IT professionals and bankers; only 9% of those arrested were unemployed.

52% came from counties that Joe Biden won in the election.

But the biggest predictor for who participated in the riot, Pape said, was counties that have a declining white population.

Many of the rioters, he said, were driven by what is known as The Great Replacement the fear of, or belief that, the rights of Hispanics and Blacks are outpacing the rights of whites.

Theyre afraid theyre going to lose their social prestige and way of life, said Christopher Sebastian Parker, a political science professor at the University of Washington.

Pape said a survey of 1,000 people conducted after the riot found that 4% of Americans believe the 2020 presidential election was stolen and that they would be willing to participate in violent protest. That equates to as many as 10 million people who are willing to become violent.

Thats worrisome, he said, and runs counter to a broad segment of society that wants to believe that what happened that day in Washington was an isolated incident.

Matt Valasik, who teaches sociology and criminology at Louisiana State University, said much of what drove the rioters was messages sent by former President Trump.

Perceived threats to the Second Amendment, conspiracy theories and covid-19 denial all came into play, Valasik said.

You have that, and always along with that, concern that white status is diminishing in some way, he said.

To that group of people, Parker continued, it doesnt matter that their fear is unfounded.

If youre not a straight, white, Christian, middle-class man, youre not a real American, he said. If you cant check all those boxes, youre in a subordinate position.

Elizabeth Neumann, who served in the Trump administration and is a director of the Republican Accountability Project, said there is more to the movement that spawned the Capitol rioters than just the fear of the Great Replacement.

Neumann, a counterterrorism expert who held senior positions in the Department of Homeland Security from 2017 through April 2020, said that for years, the alt-right has been moving itself into the mainstream by making quasi-academic policy arguments that appeal to conservatives. The problem, though, she continued, is alt-right white supremacists want to overthrow the government.

When it came to the 2020 election, Neumann said, Theyve had four years of a leader telling them their world is coming to an end and they are in an existential crisis unless you elect me because Im the only one who can save you.

Why Pennsylvanians?

Pennsylvania is known for having a relatively large far-right population, Valasik said. He compared it with Michigan in the number of militias and hate groups that operate here.

Harry Litman, a former U.S. attorney in Pittsburgh, said Pennsylvania has for many years had real, radical, conservative extremism very much along the line of the dominant model thats emerged in the last few years.

They are a group of racist, conservative, white extremists, that lures actors and ragtag groups into dangerous, misguided patriotism and a willingness to break the law and a belief that they are advancing and vindicating the Constitution.

But, according to the Chicago Project studies, 87% of those arrested in the Capitol riots were not affiliated with any group or militia.

The movement has moved heavily into the mainstream, and thats quite worrisome, Pape said.

According to data compiled of all the Capitol riot arrests by USA Today, the states with the most arrests are Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, Virginia and New York.

Valasik, who grew up in Ohio and has family in Mt. Pleasant, noted that most of those were considered to be battleground states in the election.

You had a lot of rhetoric in those states, he said.

In addition, they were places where a lot of money was spent on advertising, social media and billboards which ratcheted up the rhetoric, Valasik said.

Add in the fact that a drive to Washington, D.C., from Pennsylvania is a pretty easy one, he continued, and it makes sense why the Keystone State had so many arrests.

David A. Harris, a law professor at the University of Pittsburgh, said hes not surprised by the Pennsylvania numbers either.

They swallowed the whole big lie, he said. They thought they were going to serve the country at the presidents behest.

Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania had another explanation.

Given the lack of any tangible evidence and failing in dozens and dozens of lawsuits in state and federal courts with Republican and Democratic judges, why do people contine to believe the election was stolen? Toomey asked. Because of the sudden and dramatic changes in election rules because of the pandemic.

We changed the rules to make it easy for people to vote in this once-in-a-century pandemic.

The problem, the senator continued, is that some of the changes werent well thought out, and others were imposed by the courts. And, he believes, they often didnt include basic safeguards.

That kind of thing undermines confidence in the integrity of an election, Toomey said. Despite that, theres no evidence of widespread fraud.

What happens next

Its not enough to know that the insurrection happened, Pape said. Now, experts need to know the contours and drivers of the movement. That includes exploring the rioters networks, the impact of political leadership and the economic and religious factors.

We need to understand not just primary but contributing factors, he said.

That information will be crucial going into the 2022 midterm elections.

But experts disagree on what can be done to try to move the country past Jan. 6.

Harris said Republicans in national leadership positions need to clearly and explicitly tell their supporters the election was not stolen.

Wouldnt it be great if the leadership on that side of things would say, You know what? We were wrong.

Thats what they owe those people.

But, Harris continued, thats not likely to happen.

They have a strong interest in not doing so, because they have a political interest in sticking to the lie.

And, he said, as long as Trump has a strong hold on his base and can threaten those in office with primary challenges that wont change.

They have to toe the Trump line as long as he can sic the mob on them.

Like Harris, Neumann believes it is unlikely anyone in power in the Republican Party will admit to the false narrative.

But, she said, even if they did, it wouldnt fix everything.

We were extremely polarized well before there were allegations of fraud in the election.

Neumann thinks one answer may be in the church, since 85% of conservatives identify as Christians.

With such a strong influence on that community, churches might be well equipped to tackle the problem, said Neumann, herself a lifelong evangelical Christian.

Otherwise, Neumann suggests there must be a grassroots movement, where community members slow down and listen to the people who are in the 4% identified in the Chicago study.

We dont want to drive them into extremist arms by further ostracizing them, she said. You have to slow down and listen to their stories. You have to first let them feel heard and them go deeper past their talking points.

Ask them what they fear, what has changed in their lives, Neumann continued.

Those changes are real, and some people have not been able to adapt to them, she said. Its not just economic. Its a power shift.

The heat of the moment

J. Gerald Ingram, a defense attorney based in Youngstown, Ohio, represents Matthew Perna, who is accused of being inside the Capitol building during the riot, but not of causing any damage.

Perna, of Mercer County, had never been in trouble before, said Ingram, who has been practicing law for 42 years.

There is a psychological phenomenon when youre part of a crowd that begins to act in an unreasonable and unruly manner, Ingram said. You sort of get caught up in the heat of the moment, which is exactly what happened to Mr. Perna.

He called him a nice kid who just got led astray.

Neumann, too, blamed mob rule for the number of people who attacked the Capitol.

She suggested that pre-pandemic, there might not have been such an attack or as many people participating.

Combining the political climate with the loss of control during the covid-19 shutdowns and loss of life, Neumann suggested, drove some people deeper into politics.

And they saw Trump as a messianic figure.

Its the gaslighting effect, she said. If he says the lie long enough, then it becomes truth.

Toomey agreed, but thinks its important to distinguish between those who attended Trumps rally that day and those who breached the Capitol.

I think a lot of people believed the presidents story that he won the election, and it was stolen from him, Toomey said. He repeated it many times, every day.

At the rally, Trump told his supporters to stop the steal.

For his most extreme supporters, Toomey said, What could that mean other than literally going in to stop them from certifying the vote?

Although Ingram concedes his client willingly traveled to Washington, D.C., that day, he said Perna was induced to travel by the inaccurate assertions by the president of the United States.

Now, the attorney said, his client regrets his actions.

He feels betrayed, I guess, and has certainly grown up as a result, Ingram said. Mr. Pernas not the only one who took the bait here.

Ingram said his client believed everything he was told about the election being stolen from Trump.

For Mr. Perna, if theres one lesson here you cant believe any politician.

Paula Reed Ward is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Paula by email at pward@triblive.com or via Twitter .

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Understanding the Capitol riot suspects and their motivations - TribLIVE