What History Tells Us Will Happen to Trumpism – The Atlantic

A notable difference between Trump and Berlusconi is that the latter has lost elections without incident. Still, there are elements of Berlusconis long tenure that Trump could seek to emulate, not least his ability to stage multiple political comebacks (his latest, as a lawmaker in the European Parliament).

But perhaps Berlusconis greatest success has been in his ability to retain his base of loyal supportersa personality cult that continues to see him as akin to a god. This is one outcome Trump can likely rely on: Even in the aftermath of last months deadly insurrection on Capitol Hill, Republican voters still approve of the former president in overwhelming numbers, as do many of the Republican state parties across the country.

David Frum: Itll do

To understand the importance that a loyal base can play, look no further than Peronism. The populist movement, which dates back to the rise of former Argentine President Juan Pern in the 1940s, continues to be the preeminent political force in the country, more than four decades after its namesakes death. This has to do largely with how Pern came to power and, crucially, how he lost it.

Like most populist figures, Pern cast himself as an advocate of ordinary citizens, and, in many ways, he was: In addition to advancing workers rights, he oversaw the enfranchisement of women in Argentina. But, like other populists, Pern became more and more authoritarian over the course of his rule, jailing his political opponents, vilifying the media, and restricting constitutional rights. By 1955, after nearly a decade in power, Pern was deposed in a coup and sent into exile in Spain; his party was banned.

His supporters continued to be extremely loyal to him, thoughso much so that by the time Argentinas constitutional democracy was restored nearly two decades later, Pern won reelection by a landslide.

Part of Perns enduring appeal had to do with the circumstances under which he lost power: His forced exile created a narrative of victimization, which can really actually help to solidify political identities, James Loxton, an expert in authoritarian regimes, democratization, and political parties in Latin America, told me. A similar sense of grievance seems to be taking over Trump supporters. An overwhelming majority of Republicans have subscribed to the former presidents unfounded claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. Early polls show him to be the favorite of the 2024 Republican contenders. This idea that he didnt really lose and that everybody is out to get him, Loxton said, add[s] up to this actually quite compelling martyrdom story.

Irrespective of whether Trump runs again, Trumpism as a movement is all but certain to be on the ballot. Indeed, a number of Trump acolytesamong them Republican Senator Josh Hawley, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeoare already jockeying to succeed the former president. Should they be recognized as the Trumpist candidates, the movement could take on a Pernist quality: one that is highly mobilizing, highly polarizing, and highly durable.

Read more from the original source:

What History Tells Us Will Happen to Trumpism - The Atlantic