Monthly Archives: July 2024

UNITED NATIONS (AP) The head of a research organization that has been tracing weapons used in attacks in Ukraine since 2018 told the United Nations Security Council on Friday it has irrefutably established that ballistic missile remnants found in Ukraine came from North Korea.

The United States and its Western allies clashed with Russia and North Korea at the meeting, saying both countries violated a U.N. embargo on arms exports from the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, the countrys official name. Russia dismissed the baseless accusations, and the DPRK dismissed the meeting as an extremely brazen act to discuss someones alleged 'weapon transfers.

Jonah Leff, executive director of Conflict Armament Research, gave the council a detailed analysis of the remnants of the missile that struck Ukraines second-largest city, Kharkiv, on Jan. 2.

He said the organization documented the missiles rocket motor, its tail section and almost 300 components manufactured by 26 companies from eight countries and territories, and it determined the missile was either a KN-23 or KN-24 manufactured in 2023 in the DPRK.

The organization reached its conclusion based on the missiles unique characteristics its diameter, distinct jet vane actuators that direct the missiles thrust and trajectory, the pattern around the igniter, the presence of Korean characters on some rocket components, and other marks and components dating back to 2023, he said.

Following the initial documentation, our teams inspected three additional identical DPRK missiles that struck Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia earlier this year, Leff said. They also observed additional conventional weapons, including an artillery rocket produced in 1977, that had been seized on the front lines and had not been observed on the battlefield previously in Ukraine that were manufactured by the DPRK, and might have been part of a recent larger consignment of rockets.

The council discussed illegal arms transfers from North Korea at the request of France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The meeting followed Russias March 28 veto that ended the monitoring of sanctions against North Korea over its expanding nuclear program by a U.N. panel of experts. The U.S. and its European and Asian allies accused Moscow of seeking to avoid scrutiny as it allegedly violates sanctions to buy weapons from Pyongyang for its war in Ukraine.

U.N. disarmament chief Izumi Nakamitsu told the council Friday that before its mandate expired, the panel of experts was reviewing a report from Ukraine on missile debris it recovered following information about short-range ballistic missiles manufactured in the DPRK and used by Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

While the mandate of the experts, which had been extended since 2009 with Russias support, was terminated, Nakamitsu said it is important to note that the Security Council committee responsible for monitoring the implementation of sanctions against the DPRK continues its work and will oversee the implementation of the sanctions regime.

U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood called Leffs presentation with its many technical details quite compelling, and told the council that while Russia may have ended the panels monitoring with Chinas tacit support, the briefing showed that Moscow and Beijing cannot prevent the public from learning about the unlawful arms transfers occurring between the DPRK and Russia.

He said the independent findings by Leffs research organization corroborate open-source reports and analyses. And he said that, in addition to the dozens of missiles Russia has transferred from the DPRK, it has also unlawfully transferred over 11,000 containers of munitions.

As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has a responsibility to uphold and strengthen international peace and security, Wood said. Yet, Russia is launching ballistic missiles, which it unlawfully procured from the DPRK, against the Ukrainian people.

Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia accused the meeting's Western sponsors of attempting to use the Security Council to trot out an anti-Russian and anti-North Korean narrative and to disseminate baseless accusations in order to detract attention from their own destructive actions which foment escalation in the region.

He called the claims that Russia is using DPRK missiles in Ukraine absolutely false, questioning the professionalism and expertise of those who examined the wreckage in Ukraine.

Nebenzia accused the United States of constantly stepping up the militarization of the Asia-Pacific region and said Washingtons policy of extended deterrence on Russias eastern border poses a real threat not just for the DPRK but also for our country.

He said the purpose of the June 19 strategic partnership agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is to play a stabilizing role in northeast Asia amidst an unprecedented escalation of tensions. As for Article 4 of the agreement, providing for the delivery of mutual military assistance if either country is subject to an armed attack, he said this should not arouse national security-related concerns for countries that dont plan to attack the DPRK.

North Korean Ambassador Kim Song called the United States the worlds biggest arms exporter, and accused the Western countries that called the council meeting of being the main culprits of disturbing global peace. They have caused tragic bloodshed by extensive shipment of weapons " and have cast a cloud of war in every corner of the world.

Song detailed U.S. arms shipments to South Korea and Japan and accused the U.S. and its followers of trying to obstruct the development of DPRK-Russia relations. He defended those relations as completely of a peace-loving and defensive nature.

China's deputy U.N. ambassador, Geng Shuang, warned that peace and security in all of northeast Asia will be affected if there is more chaos on the Korean peninsula.

He called on all parties to be rational and pragmatic and work together to cool down the situation.

China will play a constructive role to realize long-term peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, Geng said, and he called on the United States to end its pressure campaign against the DPRK and the myth of deterrence, and demonstrate its sincerity in holding an unconditional dialogue through concrete action.

U.S. envoy Wood retorted: If, indeed, China is so concerned about the security situation on the Korean peninsula, then it needs to use its influence with the DPRK to persuade it from undermining regional and global security.

It should also use its influence that it has with Russia through its new 'No Limits partnership to end this increasingly dangerous military cooperation between DPRK and Russia, he said.

Excerpt from:

Research expert tells UN it has 'irrefutably' established missile debris in Ukraine is North Korean - Yahoo! Voices

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on his country's Western supporters to give the Ukrainian military a free hand to strike back at Russia, given the increasing number of Russian airstrikes on his country.

"The sooner the world helps us to deal with the Russian warplanes dropping these bombs, the sooner we can attack the Russian military infrastructure, the Russian military airfields, the closer we are to peace," Zelensky said in his regular evening video address on Sunday.

The Ukrainian military has long been demanding permission from the West to attack Russian bases and airbases far behind the front line with heavy weapons.

Until now, Ukraine has only been allowed to use the weapons and ammunition supplied by the West near the front and in the border area with Russia.

For attacks in the Russian hinterland, Ukraine has had to rely on domestically produced drones, which are not as effective as more advanced foreign-supplied missiles or cruise missiles.

Zelensky calls for more air defence

Earlier, Zelensky has complained about ongoing Russian bombing and once again appealed to the West for more help with air defence.

In the past week alone, Russia has dropped 800 glide bombs over Ukraine, Zelensky announced in Kiev on Sunday. He also published a video of the heavy destruction and fires in the Kherson, Dnipro, Odessa and Zaporizhzhya regions, among others.

"Ukraine needs more air defence systems. We need strong help from our partners," said Zelensky.

Ukraine also needs the means to shoot down the Russian fighter bombers, he said.

On Saturday, seven people were killed in an attack on the city of Vilniansk in the Zaporizhzhya region. According to official figures from Sunday, more than 40 people were injured. Lower figures had initially been reported the previous day.

On Sunday, at least one person was killed in a Russian airstrike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Sunday and a further eight people, including an eight-month-old baby, were seriously injured in the attack, according to Mayor Oleh Terekhov.

The glide bomb exploded in the middle of the city centre. The military administrator of Kharkiv, Oleh Synjehubov, specified that a post office had been hit in the attack.

The West is supporting Ukraine in its defence campaign against the Russian invasion, which has been going on for more than two years. The country has repeatedly requested more US Patriot air-defence systems to better protect its cities from Russian airstrikes.

Incident on Ukraine's border with Hungary

On Ukraine's western border with Hungary, a border guard fatally shot one man and injured another after they tried to attack with a machete on Saturday evening, according to a report from the news website Ukrainska Pravda, citing border guards and authorities.

The incident took place in the western Ukrainian region of Chernivtsi. Authorities did not immediately disclose details about the suspected attackers or any information around what may have led to the attack.

There have been clashes along the border due to efforts by guards to enforce rules forbidding men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country outside of exceptional circumstances.

In a separate incident, 17 men travelling in a minibus were apprehended along the border with Hungary while allegedly trying to leave Ukraine illegally, the border guards announced

The men came from different regions of Ukraine and were trying to flee to Hungary. Authorities said an initial investigation revealed that the men were supposed to pay between $3,000 and $12,000 to leave the country.

Russian occupiers seize Ukrainian property

The occupying forces in the Russian-annexed Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine are preparing to transfer residential property to military personnel, the Centre of National Resistance in Kiev said on Sunday.

Flats would not only be handed over to Moscow's occupying forces but also to migrants from Central Asia, the centre said.

The internationally unrecognized leadership in Luhansk is preparing corresponding laws. Many Ukrainians have fled the occupied territories and left their property behind.

Immigrants from Central Asia are mainly used as cheap labour by Russia - not least for the reconstruction of towns and villages destroyed by the war.

According to a statement from the centre, the occupying forces are confiscating homes abandoned during the war and transferring them to homeless people.

Civilians are also being forcibly relocated from areas close to the front. Russian soldiers would then be housed in the civilian buildings, it said.

Russian state employees in Luhansk are being given flats abandoned by Ukrainians in order to carry out administrative tasks in the occupied territory, the centre said. Such flats and houses are offered for sale at low prices.

"The Kremlin is promoting such resettlements because it wants to completely Russify the occupied territories," the statement said.

The occupiers rejected recognizing the documents on residential property issued in accordance with Ukrainian law. Instead, they demanded that ownership be formalized in accordance with Russian laws. Homeowners would thus be forced to first apply for a Russian passport and then go through Russian legal procedures.

The centre emphasized that the Russian approach was illegal and recommended that Ukrainian citizens keep original documents or certified copies of certificates of ownership. The Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly announced its intention to recapture the annexed territories.

Ukrainian citizens have also been expropriated on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Many homes, including one belonging to the family of President Volodymyr Zelensky, were seized by the Russian state.

See the original post:

Zelensky urges supporters to give Ukraine free hand to strike Russia - Yahoo! Voices

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2024

Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

June 28, 2024, 8pm ET

Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Clickhereto see ISWs 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Clickhereto access ISWs archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on June 28. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 29 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin directed on June 28 the production and deployment of nuclear-capable short- and intermediate-range missiles following the American withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision making in Russia's favor.[1]Putin attended a Russian Security Council meeting in which he claimed that Russia had vowed to uphold the INF's provisions against producing or deploying intermediate-range ground-based missiles until the United States violated these provisions and that Russia must now also produce and deploy such systems.[2]The United States suspended participation in the INF on February 1, 2019, and withdrew from the treaty on August 2, 2019, due to Russian violations of the treaty with its development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles, and Russia suspended its participation in the INF in response on February 2, 2019.[3]Putin specifically cited two 2024 US bilateral military exercises; one with the Philippines in Northern Luzon, Philippines on April 11 and a second with Denmark near Bornholm Island, Denmark on May 3-5. Both of these bilateral US exercises involved a Typhon Medium Range Capability (MRC) launcher, which US readouts specified can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.[4]The SM-6 missiles have a maximum range of 370 kilometers, while the Tomahawks have a maximum range of about 2,500 kilometers.[5]US officials did not specify which missiles, if any, may have been involved in either exercise.

Putin is more likely using these exercises as a scapegoat for his broader reflexive control campaign aimed at discouraging Western military assistance to Ukraine. These US and partner exercises involved launchers capable of launching missiles that could pose variable threats to Russia from the exercise locations. Bornholm Island is roughly 300 kilometers from the westernmost shore of Kaliningrad Oblast and roughly 1,400 kilometers from Moscow. The US Sixth Fleet specified that the Bornholm Island exercise involved transporting the Typhon launcher from land to shore as part of convoy protection rehearsals, suggesting that these exercises likely involved shorter-range weapons.[6]The Russian border area closest to the Philippines the area southwest of Vladivostok is roughly 2,800 kilometers from Northern Luzon, out of range of the Tomahawk missiles. Putin's June 27 condemnation follows the People's Republic of China (PRC) delayed condemnation of the US exercise in Northern Luzon on May 30. Putin likely invoked the Philippines exercise in part to posture favorably to the PRC, North Korea, and Vietnam as he attempts to create a coalition of states in support of a new "Eurasian security architecture."[7]The Kremlin has invoked the fear of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West throughout its full-scale invasion to push the West to self-deter from providing Ukraine the weapons it needs to sustain its defense against Russian forces, and the Kremlin notably employs this effort during key moments in Western political discussions about further military assistance to Ukraine.[8]

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia on June 28 and reportedly struck a microelectronics plant and a military unit on the night of June 27 to 28.Tambov Oblast Governor Maksim Yegorov claimed that a drone struck an oil depot in Michurinsky Raion and started a fire on the morning of June 28.[9]Russian opposition outletAstrastated that the drone hit the Transnefteprodukt "Nikolskoe" linear production and dispatch station in Novonikolskoe.[10]Astraalso reported that Ukrainian forces struck an unspecified military unit in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast and the "Kremniy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk City - one of the largest microelectronics manufacturers in Russia that makes components for military equipment - on the night of June 27 to 28.[11]Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that Russian forces suppressed a Ukrainian drone with electronic warfare (EW) over Bryansk City and that drone debris damaged an administrative building.[12]The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed 12 drones over Bryansk Oblast but did not mention any drone strikes against Tambov Oblast.[13]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported on June 28 that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 30 Russian military aircraft in the first six months of 2024, although ISW cannot confirm this report fully.Ukrainian StratCom stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged nine Su-25 aircraft, one Su-57 aircraft, two MiG-31 aircraft, roughly 13 Su-34 aircraft, two Su-35 aircraft, two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, one Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft, and one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in the first six months of 2024.[14]Ukrainian StratCom stated that most of the strikes against the Russian aircraft occurred in occupied Ukraine except for a handful of strikes over the Sea of Azov and within Russia.[15]Ukrainian StratCom did not specify what portion of these Ukrainian strikes were air defense interceptions of Russian aircraft in flight and what percentage were strikes against Russian aircraft at airfields. Russian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian forces downed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in February 2024 after Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down another A-50 aircraft and Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft in January 2024.[16]Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian strikes damaged at least one Russian Su-57 in June 2024, and footage indicates that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in mid-April.[17]Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces destroyed two MiG-31 aircraft in occupied Crimea in an ATACMS strike in May 2024.[18]Ukrainian officials reported the downing of numerous Su-34 aircraft in February and March 2024, although ISW cannot verify these reports or Ukrainian StratCom's figures concerning Su-34, Su-35, and Su-25 aircraft.[19]The downing of Russian aircraft, especially critical aircraft like the A-50 and Il-22, has previously temporarily constrained Russian aviation activities over occupied Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces have yet to be able to significantly attempt to contest the air domain.[20]Ukrainian officials have routinely highlighted a need for additional air defense assets and advanced fighter aircraft in order to significantly contest the air domain and pursue air parity with Russian forces.[21]Russian forces have exploited continued constraints on Ukraine's air defense umbrella to field Russian tactical aircraft regularly along the frontline that conduct widespread glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations.[22]

Many Russian elites have reportedly shifted from criticizing Russia's war effort in Ukraine to supporting it because they assess that Russia is prevailing.Russian opposition journalist and founder of Russian opposition television channelTV RainMikhail Zygar reported in a June 28Foreign Affairsarticle that many Russian elites who were opposed to the war in 2022 started to support the war in 2023 because they "believe Russia is prevailing [in the war]" given Russia's slow but steady battlefield gains, a persisting Ukrainian munitions disadvantage, and perceived "waning" Western security assistance to Ukraine.[23]One unspecified Russian oligarch who previously criticized the war reportedly told Zygar that Russia must win the war otherwise "they won't allow us to live... and Russia would collapse." Zygar reported that Russian elites have even started speculating about war outcomes that would constitute a Russian victory. ISW cannot independently verify any of Zygar's reports. Zygar's statements are consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian elites came to heel behind Russian President Vladimir Putin in support of the war following intensified crackdowns against the Russian elite after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Zygar's report that Russian elites are now assessing that Russia can prevail on the battlefield and are even discussing a Russian victory indicates that elites may also be supporting Putin's stated theory of victory, which posits that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent operationally significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, and eventually win a war of attrition.[24]

Russian officials called for harsher punishments in Russia's criminal system, likely in response to the recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan.Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin stated at the International Youth Legal Forum in St. Petersburg on June 28 that Russia should consider lifting the moratorium on the death penalty for certain, unspecified cases.[25]Head of the Russian Constitutional Court Valery Zorkin stated on June 26 that the Constitutional Court considers the return of the death penalty to be inadmissible within the framework of the current constitution, but Bastrykin suggested on June 28 that a presidential decree may be able to lift the moratorium without changing the constitution.[26]Bastrykin claimed that the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack demonstrates the need for the return to the death penalty and complained that a defendant could receive the death penalty for the murder of at least two to three people during the Soviet Union, but the terrorists that conducted the Crocus City Hall attack that killed over 100 people will receive a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.[27]Russian Justice Minister Konstantin Chuychenko stated on June 28 that the Ministry of Justice recently prepared a bill that would designate forced labor as the main punishment for more than 65 crimes.[28]Chuychenko claimed that forced labor is a "more humane" form of punishment than imprisonment and reduces recidivism.[29]Bastrykin claimed on June 27 that migrant crime is spreading in Russia and called for stricter migration policies, prompting widescale xenophobic support for Bastrykin's statements from Russia's ultranationalist milbloggers.[30]Other Russian officials called for the return of the death penalty in the days following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, and Bastrykin is likely renewing these appeals in response to the June 23 terrorist attacks in Dagestan.

Russia may be creating a shadow fleet to transport Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) and circumvent Western sanctions.Bloombergreported on June 27 that there is evidence that Russia is creating a shadow fleet to transport Russian LNG in similar ways to how Russia created a shadow fleet to avoid the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil.[31]Bloombergreported that a little-known company in Dubai has acquired at least eight vessels in the past three months and that Russia has reportedly already granted four of these vessels permission to traverse Russian Arctic waters in Summer 2024. At least three of the eight vessels reportedly list their insurers as "unknown," a common tactic tankers carrying Russian crude oil have used to skirt the G7 price cap.Bloombergnoted that it cannot independently connect these vessels to major Russian entities directly. The latest EU sanctions package from June 24 forbids EU entities from providing reloading services of Russian LNG in EU territory for transshipment operations to third countries.[32]

Key Takeaways:

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Kharkiv Oblast(Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Ukrainian forces recently recaptured positions in northern Kharkiv Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on June 28. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced within central Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) along Heoriv Chornobylya Street.[33]A Ukrainian drone battalion commander operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on June 28 that the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast has stabilized and that Russian forces have not made any significant progress since roughly June 12.[34]The drone battalion commander stated that Russian forces are using both "Storm" assault units staffed with poorly trained personnel and regular Russian units in the Kharkiv direction. The drone battalion commander also reported that Russian forces are quickly replenishing their losses in the area despite suffering heavy losses. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk on June 28.[35]Elements of the Russian engineering "Phoenix" Battalion are reportedly attempting to remotely mine areas in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[36]

A Ukrainian source claimed on June 26 that Russian forces may have lost almost the entire 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade in the Kharkiv direction due to significant losses and personnel refusing to fight, although ISW has not observed any evidence of this claim and assesses it to be exaggerated.[37]Ukrainian officials recently reported on June 16 and 23 that Russian forces attempted to withdraw elements of the 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade that became combat-ineffective after suffering high losses in the Kharkiv direction.[38]ISW observed reports on June 11 that elements of the Russian 83rd VDV Brigade were operating near Chasiv Yar.[39]Elements of the Russian 83rd VDV Brigade in the Kharkiv direction likely suffered significant losses that rendered them combat-ineffective, but the brigade is unlikely to have been completely destroyed, particularly since it remains unclear how large a portion of the 83rd VDV Brigade the Russians transferred from the Chasiv Yar area to the Vovchansk direction.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 Luhansk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Kreminna and east of Terny (west of Kreminna).[40]Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on June 28 that Ukrainian forces advanced about 1.5 kilometers near Terny and Yampolivka (both west of Kreminna) while Russian forces were focused on offensive operations in the direction of Borova (west of Svatove).[41] Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 31st and 37th motorized rifle regiments and 19th Tank Regiment (all of 67th Motorized Rifle Division, 25th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]), the 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th CAA), and the 488th and 238th motorized rifle regiments (both of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th CAA, Moscow Military District [MMD]) were likely regrouping in preparation for resumed offensive operations near Terny and Yampolivka when Ukrainian forces counterattacked and regained lost positions.

Russian forces reportedly advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 28, but there were no confirmed Russian advances in this area. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Stepova Novoselivka (southeast of Kupyansk) and in the Serebryanske forest area (southwest of Kreminna), but ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[42]Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Pishchane; northwest of Svatove near Kruhlyakivka; west of Svatove near Andriivka; southwest of Svatove near Nevske, Makiivka, and Kopanky; northwest of Kreminna near Hrekivka; west of Kreminna near Torske and Terny; and southwest of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area on June 27 and 28.[43]Elements of the Chechen "Shrama" detachment of the 204th "Akhmat" Spetsnaz Regiment are reportedly operating near Kreminna.[44]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted intensified offensive operations in the Siversk direction on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Rozdolivka (south of Siversk) as of June 28, following Russian milblogger claims on June 27 that Russian forces seized the settlement.[45]A Russian milblogger claimed on June 28 that elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division seized Rozdolivka on June 26, although other milbloggers claimed that fighting continued within the settlement on June 27 and 28.[46]ISW has not yet observed confirmation that Russian forces seized Rozdolivka, however. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted notably intensified offensive operations in the Siversk direction on June 28.[47]Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka; east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; southeast of Siversk near Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka; and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka on June 27 and 28.[48]

Russian forces recently advanced in easternmost Chasiv Yar, indicating that Russian forces continue to operate within the town. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced westward to the concrete plant in Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar).[49]Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn made multiple statements on June 27 that Ukrainian forces either pushed all Russian forces from Kanal Microraion or pushed most Russian forces from Kanal Microraion but that limited, isolated Russian groups remain in the microraion.[50]Voloshyn's statements and continued geolocated footage of Russian forces operating further within Kanal Microraion suggest that small Russian infantry groups can enter and advance within the microraion but likely struggle to establish enduring positions. ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Ukrainian forces regaining positions in eastern Kanal Microraion or other indicators that Ukrainian forces have managed to push Russian forces completely out of easternmost Chasiv Yar. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces established a foothold within central Kalynivka (north of Chasiv Yar) as of June 27.[51]Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Novyi and Kanal microraions (eastern Chasiv Yar), Ivanivske (east of Chasiv Yar), and Klishchiivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar) on June 27 and 28.[52]Elements of the Russian 98th VDV Division's 217th and 331st VDV regiments, the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District [LMD]), the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]), and the "Hispaniola" Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating near eastern Chasiv Yar.[53]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on June 28 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces established a foothold on the outskirts of Niu York (south of Toretsk) and made gains near Zalizne and Pivdenne (both southeast of Toretsk) on June 28.[54]A Russian milblogger claimed on June 27 that Russian forces are 1.5 kilometers from Toretsk, although ISW currently assesses that Russian forces are over three kilometers from the town.[55]Russian forces also continued assaults near Toretsk and east of Toretsk near Druzhba and Pivnichne on June 27 and 28.[56]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Avdiivka on June 28 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near the pond on the northwestern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka (northwest of Avdiivka) and are pushing Ukrainian forces towards Vozdvyzhenka (northwest of Avdiivka).[57]Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces made marginal gains within and near Sokil (northwest of Avdiivka) and near Yasnobrodivka (west of Avdiivka).[58]Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Yevhenivka, and Novoselivka Persha; west of Avdiivka near Umanske and Yasnobrodivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Karlivka on June 27 and 28.[59]Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 239th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, 41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are operating near Yasnobrodivka, that elements of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD) are operating near Novoselivka Persha, and that Russian forces are reinforcing elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD) and the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka and Prohres.[60]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. A Russian milblogger claimed on June 27 that Russian forces advanced up to 550 meters deep and 150 meters wide within Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City).[61]Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 700 meters deep south of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and are within three kilometers of the O0532 (Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar) highway.[62]Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane on June 27 and 28.[63]Elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly operating in the Kurakhove direction (west and southwest of Donetsk City).[64]

Russian forces did not conduct ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on June 28.

Russian Supporting Effort Southern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne) on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.[65]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced at least one kilometer near Zahirne (northeast of Robotyne and southwest of Hulyaipole), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[66]

International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stated on June 27 that strikes from unspecified actors destroyed an external radiation monitoring station roughly 16 kilometers from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).[67]Grossi noted that this particular monitoring station is not essential to the ZNPP's function and therefore does not directly impact safety at the ZNPP but that the strike is part of the continued erosion of safety measures of the ZNPP.

Fighting continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and the Antonivsky roadway bridge (north of Oleshky), on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.[68]A Russian milblogger amplified a claim that Russian forces effectively control Krynky but that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in basements that Russian forces cannot clear.[69]Elements of the Russian 126th Coastal Defense Brigade (22nd Army Corps [AC], Black Sea Fleet [BSF]; reportedly integrated into the 18th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue fighting on the east bank of the Dnipro River.[70]

Russian and occupation authorities are intensifying civilian warning and protection systems in occupied Sevastopol following an incident in which a partially-intercepted Ukrainian missile injured more than 150 beachgoers, which prompted widespread criticism of Russian occupation authorities. Sevastopol occupation head Mikhail Razvozhaev announced that the Sevastopol occupation government decided to adopt a new "Ballistika" warning system indicating that civilians need to shelter within two to three minutes and establish at least 600 new temporary shelters on beaches in which civilians can take refuge during strikes.[71]Russian state news outlet TASS reported that Russian authorities are also increasing fines to 300,000 rubles (about $3,500) for preventing civilians from entering private property during an air raid.[72]Russian ultranationalist milblogger and Kremlin Human Rights Committee member Alexander "Sasha" Kots praised the new measures.[73]Russian authorities continue to irresponsibly promote occupied Crimea as a tourist destination during wartime, and these new measures enable the Kremlin's contradictory objectives of attempting to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy in occupied Crimea while also continuing its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and occupation of Crimea. Razvozhaev discouraged civilians from visiting Sevastopol's northern beaches until Russian authorities can construct shelters but explicitly stated that authorities are not closing Sevastopol's beaches - an irresponsible decision in wartime in an area being actively used to support military operations.[74]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign(Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted limited missile strikes against Ukraine during the day on June 28. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces struck Odesa City with a ballistic missile, likely an Iskander-M armed with cluster munitions.[75]Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhii Lysak reported that Russian forces conducted an unspecified missile strike against Dnipro City.[76]

Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Military Administration Head Svitlana Onyshchuk reported on June 28 that previous Russian missile strikes have damaged the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (BTPP) so severely that Ukraine cannot repair it.[77]Onyshchuk reported that Russian forces have launched over 12 missiles against the BTPP, and Ukrainian outletSuspilne Ivano-Frankivskreported that Russian forces have conducted strikes against the energy infrastructure in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast at least five times between March 22 and June 1.[78]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian opposition outletVazhnye Istoriiused Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data to estimate that over 71,000 Russian men died in the war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.[79]Vazhnye Istoriiused Rosstat data to compare the pre-war ratio of male and female mortality rates to calculate what the male mortality rate would likely have been in 2022 and 2023 had there been no war in Ukraine.Vazhnye Istoriicalculated the difference between Rosstat's mortality data and the estimate for a normal expected mortality rate to estimate the minimum possible war deaths. Russian opposition outletMeduzasimilarly used Rosstat data to compare the pre-war ratio of male and female mortality rates to calculate an estimate for male mortality in 2022 and 2023 had there been no war in Ukraine.[80]Meduzathen compared the difference in male mortality rates to estimate that a minimum of 64,000 Russian men died in the war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.

Satellite imagery reportedly indicates that Russian forces have lost a significant number of tanks and armored vehicles in the war in Ukraine. German news outletSuddeutsche Zeitung(SZ) used artificial intelligence (AI) to examine satellite imagery taken between 2021 and 2024 of 87 Russian military sites, including 16 that store tanks and armored vehicles, and found that several tank and armored vehicle storage sites are empty.[81]SZ's AI analysis found that one base housed 857 tanks in April 2021, housed 431 in October 2022, and is nearly empty as of June 2024. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) research analyst Michael Gjerstad told SZ that Russia has roughly 3,200 tanks in stock but that the majority of them are in bad condition. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report on June 26 stating that Russia plans to produce 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored fighting vehicles in 2024, but RUSI noted that 85 percent of these vehicles are refurbished from storage instead of new production.[82]

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Tharaka Balasuriya met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko and Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin on June 27 to resolve problems regarding the Russian military's recruitment of Sri Lankan nationals.[83]The Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported the officials discussed compensation to Sri Lankan nationals killed and wounded while serving in the Russian military, the possibility of Sri Lankan citizens terminating Russian military contracts early, and the establishment of a joint working committee to address concerns of Sri Lankans who are currently serving in the Russian military. Balasuriya stated that Russia and Sri Lanka agreed that Russia would stop recruiting Sri Lankan citizens into the Russian military after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on June 11.[84]

Select Russian milbloggers credited themselves with influencing Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov's decision to provide Russian military personnel with social benefits. Two Russian milbloggers who attended the June 10 meeting between Belousov and a select group of Russian milbloggers claimed that following the meeting Belousov ordered the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to resolve problems with providing social support to veterans of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republic (DNR/LNR) formations who served prior to Russia's illegal annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in 2022.[85]ISW assessed that Belousov likely met with select Russian milbloggers who have had the Kremlin's favor for some time to ensure their loyalty to a new MoD under Belousov.[86]These milbloggers' claims may also be an attempt to portray Belousov as a receptive leader.

Russian Technological Adaptations(Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Russian officials continue to posture themselves as rallying the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) to innovate weapons and equipment for Russian forces in Ukraine. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov led a discussion at the "ERA" military innovation forum on June 28 in which he heavily emphasized the importance of developing innovative man-portable weapons, close combat arms, and airfield-based drones.[87]Manturov emphasized that the battlefield situation is dynamic and that Russian DIB enterprises must finalize new products "not even in months but in days." Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and heads of military command-and-control bodies and DIB enterprises also attended Manturov's discussion.[88]Yevkurov emphasized that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), the Russian government, the DIB, and the state-led "Popular Front" social movement are all collaborating to ensure Russia's technological lead in weapons production, especially in drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems.

Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)

ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian and occupation officials continue efforts to integrate occupied areas of Ukraine into Russian legal, social, and informational structures. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 28 that Russia must elevate the standard of living in occupied areas of Ukraine to meet Russian federal standards and solve social issues.[89]Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Eldar Gaifutdinov on June 27 to discuss further developing communications, television, and radio broadcasting infrastructure within occupied Kherson Oblast to help the "informational front" in the "hybrid war with the West."[90]

Russian authorities continue to Russify and militarize Ukrainian children in occupied areas in a broader effort to eradicate Ukrainian national identity and culture. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky claimed on June 27 that occupation authorities sent 70 Ukrainian schoolchildren to participate in the Russian state "Movement of the First's" "Zarnitsa 2.0" military-patriotic game that teaches basic military and sports skills and aims to instill a "love for the [Russian] Fatherland" in these Ukrainian children.[91]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated on June 26 that Russian authorities have forced more than 16,500 Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to join military-ideological organizations including Yunarmiya and "Movement of the First."[92]Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov stated that occupation authorities send Ukrainian children to Moscow through vacation schemes to give speeches supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and visit Russian military facilities.[93]

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to baselessly blame the United States for a recent Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol, Crimea and issue threats that aim to push the United States to self-deter against continued support for Ukraine. The Russian MoD suggested that the United States continues to aid strikes against occupied Crimea and framed this as risking direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.[94]Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov instructed the Russian General Staff to propose measures to promptly respond to Western "provocations." The Russian MoD claimed on June 23 that the United States was responsible for a Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol since the United States allegedly helped Ukrainian forces with target designation.[95]The Russian MoD, however, notably acknowledged that a Russian air defense interceptor caused the missile to deviate from its flight path and detonate over civilians.[96]

Significant activity in Belarus(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Belarusian forces reportedly deployed a multiple rocket launch system (MLRS) battalion to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on June 28 that Belarusian forces deployed a Polonez MLRS battalion to the border in response to the "difficult situation" near the border and as part of a surprise readiness check.[97]The Belarusian State Border Committee claimed on June 28 that Belarusian forces shot down an alleged drone from the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in Gomel Oblast on June 26.[98]

Russian and Belarusian officials and enterprises discussed bilateral economic cooperation at the Forum of Regions of Belarus and Russia in Belarus on June 28. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the forum that Russia and Belarus are trying to introduce new technologies into economic activities and are developing "knowledge-intensive industries" and agriculture.[99]Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov claimed that Russian and Belarusian enterprises and representatives will sign over 100 contracts during the forum and that over 80 Russian federal subjects are involved in trade and economic cooperation with Belarus.[100]The Russian Federation Council claimed that Belarusian and Russian parliamentarians discussed bilateral cooperation in the fields of agro-industrial and light industry.[101]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1]http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/74437

[2]http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/74437

[3]https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/;https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_166100.htm#:~:text=It%20eliminated%20a%20whole%20category,significant%20risk%20to%20Alliance%20security.;https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty; https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ssc-8-novator-9m729/

[4]https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/Article/3768263/us-naval-forces-europe-and-us-sixth-fleet-conduct-containerized-missile-launche/;https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-demonstrates-ability-to-close-baltic-sea/;https://www.usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-News/Article-Display/Article/3740807/us-armys-mid-range-capability-makes-its-first-deployment-in-the-philippines-for/#:~:text=NORTHERN%20LUZON%2C%20Philippines%20%E2%80%93%20In%20a,part%20of%20Exercise%20Salaknib%2024.;https://www.usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-News/Article-Display/Article/3728554/us-philippine-armies-enhance-interoperability-and-defense-capabilities-during-s/

[5]https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/sm-6/; https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/tomahawk/

[6]https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/News-Display/Article/3768263/us-naval-forces-europe-and-us-sixth-fleet-conduct-containerized-missile-launche/

[7]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2024;https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2024; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-19-2024

[8]https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/May%2021%2C%202024%2C%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.pdf;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2024;

[9]https://t.me/egorovmb/3837

[10]https://t.me/astrapress/58498

[11]https://t.me/astrapress/58501

[12]https://t.me/avbogomaz/7282

[13]https://t.me/mod_russia/40387;

[14]https://t.me/AFUStratCom/24809

[15]https://t.me/AFUStratCom/24809

[16]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324;https://isw.pub/UkrWar011524;https://isw.pub/UkrWar061824; https://isw.pub/UkrWar011624

[17];https://isw.pub/UkrWar041924;https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2024

[18]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2024

[19]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224;https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724

[20]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324

[21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-6-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-12-2024

[22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/special-report-russian-strikes-more-effective-ukraine-exhausts-defenses

[23]https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-russian-elites-made-peace-war

[24]https://isw.pub/UkrWar060724

[25]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231469 ;https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968474

[26]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21204111;https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231469 ;https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968474

[27]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231469 ;https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968474

[28]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231213

[29]https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968472

[30]https://isw.pub/UkrWar06272024

[31]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/after-oil-russia-may-now-be-building-a-shadow-fleet-for-gas

[32]https://isw.pub/UkrWar062424

[33]https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1806590947246961001; https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/1806612936032456898; https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1806633109812621721; https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1806633109812621721

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2024 - Institute for the Study of War

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The Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has adopted a resolution recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide against its people, a member of Kyiv's delegation said on June 30.

In a post on Telegram, Pavlo Frolov said the document also "defines the decolonization of the Russian Federation as a necessary prerequisite for establishing a lasting peace."

The OSCE has 57 members including Ukraine and Russia. The Parliamentary Assembly is the body tasked with "facilitating inter-parliamentary dialogue."

Its resolutions are not legally-binding.

According to Frolov, the latest resolution calls on participating members to "make efforts for the de-occupation of Crimea and all occupied territories of Ukraine" and create a special tribunal to "hold the Russian Federation accountable for crimes committed during the aggressive war against Ukraine."

It also calls for "an international and national investigation into mass atrocities, murders, torture, and rape by the Russian army."

The genocidal intent of Russia's aggression toward Ukraine has manifested in war crimes and indiscriminate violence directed at Ukrainian civilians, but also in the denial and distortion of history, attempts to erase Ukrainian culture, and the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children.

Since the outbreak of Russia's full-scale war, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the parliaments of nine countries, including Ukraine, have recognized acts committed by Russian invading forces as genocide.

Several top Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, Valery Gerasimov, have been issued arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for their roles in alleged crimes committed against Ukraine.

Danylo Mokryk: Say the word genocide

In the spring of 2022, right after Russias atrocities in Bucha were exposed, several Western leaders uttered the term genocide. U.S. President Joe Biden, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Colombian President Ivan Duque, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did so in short suc

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OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopts resolution recognizing Russian genocide of Ukrainian people - Kyiv Independent

Russian officials say at least five people were killed in Ukrainian strikes on Kursk with the Defence Ministry saying six Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight over four regions, including the Crimean Peninsula which Moscow annexed in 2014.

At least 11 people have been killed in Russian attacks across eastern Ukraine on Saturday, while rescuers in the city of Dnipro dug through rubble after a strike ripped through a nine-story residential building, leaving one person dead.

The attacks came as Russia continues to stretch Ukraines troops in several areas along the 1,000-kilometre frontline.

Moscow has stepped up airstrikes in a bid to drain Ukraines resources, often targeting energy facilities and other vital infrastructure.

In a post on X, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said seven people had been killed in missile strikes on the town of Vilniansk, outside the southeastern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia.

"Our cities and communities suffer from such Russian strikes every day," Zelenskyy posted.

"But there are ways to overcome this by destroying the terrorists where they are, eliminating Russian missile launchers, hitting them with long-range weapons and increasing the number of modern air defence systems in Ukraine. I thank all our partners who are helping us."

Zelenskyy repeated his appeal to allies to provideUkrainewith more long-range weapons and enhanced air defences to stop what he said were daily attacks on his country.

"Today the enemy carried out yet another dreadful terrorist act against the civilian population," Zaporizhzhia Regional Governor Ivan Fedorov said in a video posted on the Telegram messaging app.

The attack occurred in "the middle of the day, a non-working day, in the town centre, where people were out relaxing, where there were no military targets," he said.

Meanwhile, the governor of the frontline village of Niu-York in Donetsk said Russian forces had shelled populated areas 13 times in the past 24 hours.

The Ukrainian air force said on Saturday that it had downed 10 Russian drones launched in overnight attacks.

"This is why we constantly remind all of our partners: only a sufficient amount of high-quality air defence systems, only a sufficient amount of determination from the world at large can stop Russian terror," Zelenskyy said.

Russian officials reported Ukrainian attacks in the Kursk region which killed five people. Two children were among the victims of the attack in the village of Gorodishche on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Governor Alexey Smirnov said on social media.

In its morning statement, the Russian Defence Ministry said that six Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight over the countrys Tver, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, as well as over the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

The Ukrainian government also responded on Saturday to a statement from the Belarusian military saying it had increased its forces along Ukraines northern border in response to what it described as security threats.

The announcement came after the Belarus' border agency claimed its troops downed a Ukrainian drone that had flown across the border to gather intelligence.

Kyiv dismissed the accusations, describing them as Russian propaganda.

Originally posted here:

Officials say at least 11 killed in Russian strikes across Ukraine on Saturday - Euronews

Zelenskyy met Slovenia's President Nataa Pirc Musar in Kyiv where the two leaders honoured the memory of fallen Ukrainian soldiers by laying wreaths at the Remembrance Wall in the heart of Ukraines capital.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says hes working on a "comprehensive plan" for how Kyiv sees the war with Russia ending.

Speaking to reporters in Kyiv alongside Slovenia's President Nataa Pirc Musar, he said, "We do not want to prolong this war."

"We must come to a just peace as soon as possible. We have talked about the situation on the battlefield, in particular in the Kharkiv region where Russia tried to start a large-scale offensive. The occupiers did not manage this. Our Ukrainian forces have stabilized the situation and stopped the offensive, which was difficult. We will continue to do the same to strip Russia of the illusion that it can achieve something with this war," he said.

The focus of Zelenskyy's meeting with Pirc Musar was to discuss preparations for a second international peace summit, following a two-day event earlier this month in Switzerland.

"I am very happy about the progress at the first peacekeeping conference in Switzerland. And we agreed that there is no politician in Europe who does not want peace. We all understand the risks. But Ukraine is the one that has to decide when and under what conditions it will negotiate. And here we are on your side," she said.

Zelenskyy hosted that summit to rally international support for Ukraine in its two-year war with Russia.

Leaders and senior officials from more than 90 countries attended and the majority agreed to a final communique that said Ukraine's territorial integrity must be respected in any peace settlement.

But not everyone there agreed with the wording of the statement and refused to sign. Some countries such as India and Saudi Arabia said the effectiveness of the summit itself was limited by Russia's absence.

There is currently no official direct negotiation mechanism between Zelenksyy and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, but Ukraine has repeatedly said Russia must withdraw all its forces from within its border, including from the Crimean Peninsula which it annexed in 2014, before serious peace talks can begin.

But Russian troops are making some territorial gains on the battlefield and Zelenskyy has often complained about the slow supply of arms and munitions from Western allies.

On Friday, Zelenksyy posted on X that a Russian strike on a residential apartment block in Dnipro had destroyed four floors and injured three people.

Local authorities said one person was killed in the strike and two have been declared missing. The regional governor said a seven-month-old child was among the injured after inhaling smoke from the strike.

Zelenskyy called on European Union leaders on Thursday to live up to their promises to provide military equipment to his country as the bloc pledged long-term support to Kyiv.

Speaking at an EU Council Summit in Brussels on Thursday, Zelenskyy said he would put forward a "detailed plan" to bring about an end to the war in months.

"All those who really want peace must work together to develop an action plan to address all the security aspects that have been violated by Russia," he told reporters in Kyiv on Friday.

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Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he is working on 'comprehensive plan' for peace in Ukraine - Euronews

Video has emerged of what may be the first M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) destroyed by Russia. The M270s, which can fire 227mm artillery rockets, as well as Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles, have been a bane to Moscows war efforts. Most recently, they were reportedly involved in a deadly ATACMS strike on Crimea earlier this week. The 69-second video, posted by the Russian The_Wrong_Side Telegram channel on Friday, showed a drone view of the M270 pulling out of a tree line then heading down a road. The drone followed the vehicle as it entered a building located in Shevchkove, a small village in Mikoliav Oblast about 40 miles north of the frontlines. Russian Forces seem to have successfully hit a Ukrainian M270/MARS II FARP(Forward Arming and Refuelling Point). The fires indicate possible fuel and missile reserves being stored there, as for once, we saw the MLRS drive into the facility.However the aftermath is again bad. pic.twitter.com/tzgKYCrXuW WarVehicleTracker (@WarVehicle) June 28, 2024 After cutting to a wider view, the video then showed what was claimed to be an Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile striking the building. A huge ball of flames erupted as a result. The building where the M270 was parked erupted in flames after a Russian missile strike Twitter screencap A superimposed arrow purportedly points to the burning M270, where nearby secondary explosions can be seen. A superimposed arrow claims to show the location of the M270 Twitter screencap The War Zone cannot independently verify the claim that the M270 was destroyed. However, the conflagration caused by the missile certainly seems powerful enough to have ruined whatever was inside the building, which appeared to have been a forward arming and refueling facility. Stored weapons and fuel would certainly add to the intensity of any explosion resulting from such a strike. The footage shows the result of another successful work of Russian intelligence officers, The_Wrong_Side bragged on Telegram Friday. For unknown reasons, the equipment did not carry out launches (probably a technical malfunction occurred), after which it was tracked to its home base. According to the already established tradition, the Iskander sent its greetings to Western equipment, completely destroying it, the escort vehicle, as well as at least 25 Ukrainian Armed Forces specialists working in the hangar, The_Wrong_Side claimed, which we also cannot verify. Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles are among Russias most valuable precision-guided standoff weapons. They are now being used for fast-reaction strikes for exactly these kinds of time-sensitive targets. Its really the only major precision strike munition Russia has capable of reliably hitting these kinds of high-value targets on very short notice as the Russian Air Forces has not achieved air superiority.We have seen repeated examples, for instance, of air defense systems found by Russian drones behind the front lines that are then struck by an Iskander-M. A Russian Telegram channel claims a building housing an M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS) vehicle was destroyed by an Islander-M short-range ballistic missile like this one. Russian MoD Russian MOD There have yet to be any M270 losses recorded by the Oyrx open-source tracking group, however, they only tabulate things they can verify visually so it is possible that this was not the first. These vehicles have proven valuable on the battlefield because they can achieve devastating long-range effects. They are also highly mobile, enabling crews to fire, quickly move away to hide, and return to the battlefield rearmed. A large building like the one seen in the video would be an ideal location, close enough to the front to put GMLRS in range of targets but also away from Russian FPV drones and artillery, for such clandestine activities. The M270s feature a launch system mounted on a tracked chassis derived from the Bradley Fighting Vehicle. Like its wheeled cousin the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, it can fire several different munitions. The aforementioned ATACMS can hit targets either 100 or 186 miles away depending on the variant. Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) rockets can strike up to about 50 miles away. It can also fired shorter-range unguided rockets. A single M270 can be loaded with two of the standard ammunition pods at a time, allowing it to fire up to 12 rockets or two ATACMS missiles before needing to be reloaded. Ukraine has received several of these weapons. U.S.-made M270s have been turned over to Ukraine by both the United Kingdom and Norway. The German government has provided five MARS II systems, a country-specific derivative of the M270. France has donated at least a half dozen LRU (Lance-Roquette Unitaire) MLRS, a French version of the M270. Russia claims to have destroyed an M270 MLRS like the one in this photo. Lockheed Martin Lockheed Martin The loss of one M270 is a blow to Ukraine. It is likely that GMLRS rockets were stored there and even possibly some of Ukraines limited supply of ATACMS, as well. The video also points to another issue. That a drone could loiter unmolested for so long over such a key piece of equipment and especially a rearming/storage, shows the challenge that Ukraine faces when it comes to air defenses. The drone operating so far from the front lines would have required a relay or a large mast to keep in contact with its controller. Stil, Kyivs forces have so far been very fortunate when it comes to these donated MLRSs. According to information compiled by Oryx, there has only been one HIMARS destroyed and two HIMARS damaged. However, as we noted previously, that figure could be higher. You can read about repair efforts for one damaged HIMARS in our story here. Regardless, some equipment is bound to be lost in such a fierce conflict, even highly valued ones like M270s. Considering how big of a menace these vehicles have been to Russian forces, its impressive that so many have been able to survive for so long, especially as drone operations have expanded significantly beyond the front lines. Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

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Ukraine May Have Lost An M270 MLRS For The First Time - Yahoo! Voices

They first appeared as a cloud of dust on the horizon. A few seconds later, the motorcycles carrying Russian soldiers sped into view, zigzagging across a field, kicking up dust, attempting a noisy, dangerous run at a Ukrainian trench. "They moved fast, they spread out and they swerved," said Lt. Mykhailo Hubitsky, describing the Russian motorcycle assault he witnessed. It's a type of attack that has been proliferating along the frontline this spring, adding a wild new element to the already violent, chaotic fighting. Russian soldiers riding motorcycles, dirt bikes, quadricycles and dune buggies now account for about half of all attacks in some areas of the front, soldiers and commanders say, as Moscow's forces attempt to use speed to cross exposed open spaces where its lumbering armoured vehicles are easy targets. These nonconventional vehicles have been turning up with such frequency that some Ukrainian trenches now overlook junk yards of abandoned, blown up off-road vehicles, videos from reconnaissance drones show. The new tactic is the latest Russian adaptation for a heavily mined, continually surveilled battlefield, as Moscow's forces work to achieve small tactical gains, often of just a few hundred yards. The Russians' farthest advance in the region is 15 miles from its starting point. "We are fighting a war over every metre," said Captain Yaroslav, an artillery commander with 80th air assault brigade. With reconnaissance drones ubiquitous in the skies over the Donbas, the armoured vehicles of both armies are easy targets. The faster-moving motorcycles and buggies are harder to hit with artillery and they can swerve to avoid mines that armoured vehicle operators might not see. The use of cheap, disposable dirt bikes and buggies also helps conserve Russian armoured vehicles. The drawback is that they provide no protection for Russian soldiers, who are exposed to a hail of machine gun fire as they approach the trenches. If they make it across a field, the riders cast aside their bikes, enter the Ukrainian trench and engage in close combat on foot. "How they find people willing to do this, I don't know," said Volodymyr, a Ukrainian sergeant. "Sometimes, none of them will make it, sometimes all of them." That hasn't deterred Russian commanders from continuing to employ the tactic. "All the tree lines," said Sapsan, a sergeant in the 47th Brigade, "are now full of these buggies and motorcycles."

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Fast and furious: Russia using bikes to stir chaos in Ukraine - The Times of India

WARSAW (Reuters) - Poland will almost certainly sign a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine before July's NATO summit in Washington, the Polish prime minister said on Friday.

On Thursday, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that before the NATO summit in Washington, which starts on July 9, talks will be held in Warsaw with the president of Ukraine.

"I must, together with the defence minister, determine how we can continue to help Ukraine, but we cannot weaken Poland's defence capabilities," Tusk told reporters.

"There is a 99% chance that we will sign this agreement with President Zelenskiy (before the summit)."

Tusk said that the agreement was practically "finished" and only a few details and wordings needed to be clarified.

The European Union and two of its member countries, Lithuania and Estonia, signed security agreements with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy at a summit in Brussels on Thursday.

(Reporting by Alan Charlish, Pawel Florkiewicz; editing by Miral Fahmy)

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Poland very likely to sign security deal with Ukraine before NATO summit, says PM - Yahoo! Voices