Monthly Archives: July 2024

The occupying forces in the Russian-annexed Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine are preparing to transfer residential property to military personnel, the Centre of National Resistance in Kyiv said on Sunday.

Flats would not only be handed over to Moscows occupying forces but also to migrants from Central Asia, the centre said.

The internationally unrecognised leadership in Luhansk is preparing corresponding laws. Many Ukrainians have fled the occupied territories and left their property behind.

Immigrants from Central Asia are mainly used as cheap labour by Russia not least for the reconstruction of towns and villages destroyed by the war.

According to a statement from the centre, the occupying forces are confiscating homes abandoned during the war and transferring them to homeless people.

Civilians are also being forcibly relocated from areas close to the front. Russian soldiers would then be housed in the civilian buildings, it said.

Russian state employees in Luhansk are being given flats abandoned by Ukrainians to carry out administrative tasks in the occupied territory, the centre said. Such flats and houses are offered for sale at low prices.

The Kremlin is promoting such resettlements because it wants to completely Russify the occupied territories, the statement said.

09:43

Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid

Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid

The occupiers rejected recognising the documents on residential property issued in accordance with Ukrainian law. Instead, they demanded that ownership be formalised in accordance with Russian laws. Homeowners would thus be forced to first apply for a Russian passport and then go through Russian legal procedures.

The centre emphasised that the Russian approach was illegal and recommended that Ukrainian citizens keep original documents or certified copies of certificates of ownership. The Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly announced its intention to recapture the annexed territories.

Ukrainian citizens have also been expropriated on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Many homes, including one belonging to the family of President Volodymyr Zelensky, were seized by the Russian state.

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Flats in Russian-held Luhansk to be given away to troops, migrant workers - South China Morning Post

KYIV, Ukraine When President Volodymyr Zelensky walked into the high-ceilinged, ornate conference room in the presidential office building, the exhaustion on his face was so stark I almost felt guilty about taking his time.

Wearing his trademark black T-shirt and olive drab pants, and arriving after a morning of security meetings, he appeared to be carrying the weight of the world on his shoulders. That may literally be the truth: The future of Western democracies rests heavily on what happens to Ukraine.

In a wide-ranging interview last week, Zelensky laid out how Ukraine could still win if the West can lose its fear of Vladimir Putin and recognize the Russian leaders weakness.

Zelensky defined what victory would mean. And he insisted that direct peace talks with Moscow wouldnt end the war but would encourage further Russian aggression against Ukraine, Europe and America.

It is impossible to help Ukraine with one hand and shake Putins hand with the other, Zelensky insisted. It will not work. It is not just a question of the West protecting Ukraine, he stressed. It is Ukraine which protects all of the democratic countries that Putin will attack further on.

READ MORE: Ukraines head of military intelligence is behind Kyivs biggest victories this year. He sees no point in peace talks | Trudy Rubin

I entered the presidential offices through a heavily sandbagged rear building door and walked down long silent corridors. All electronics, including cell phones, were banned from the visit as a safety measure. There have been numerous Russian attempts to assassinate Zelensky, the most recent in May when Ukrainian intelligence busted a network of Russian agents aiming to take the president hostage and kill him.

It has been a rough few months for the Ukrainian leader. His forces stopped a Russian offensive in the north but Putins troops are still advancing slowly in the east. The ground war is essentially stalemated.

But the tech-savvy Ukrainians have been making astonishing advances in drone warfare, which have brought the war home to Russia and driven the Kremlins ships out of occupied Crimean ports on the Black Sea and back to Russian bases.

The biggest [current] issue is with glide bombs, Zelensky told me, referring to Moscows recent use of thousands of bombs each month that can be released at a great distance from their target, protecting the launching aircraft from antiaircraft defenses. So you need to search for long-range solutions against their aerodromes where their military aircraft land, which Russia uses to launch glide bombs and missiles.

If President Joe Biden would let Ukraine use long-range U.S. missiles such as the recently delivered ATACMS to hit those airports in Russia, then the attacks could be prevented, Zelensky said. But so far that permission has not been granted. Ukraines innovative, home-produced long-range drones are hitting those airports but dont have the power of missiles.

Biden recently gave permission for shorter-range U.S. missiles to be used just across the Ukrainian border where Russian troops were massing, which halted the Russian offensive toward Kharkiv.

But that doesnt solve our issues, Zelensky told me. It is tactical, not strategic.

I asked Zelensky whether he believed Biden wanted Ukraine to achieve victory.

Yes, he answered quickly. I think that for the United States it is important and for Europe and for many countries. But we can have different ideas toward the word victory.

The West wanted to deny Putin the opportunity to fully occupy Ukraine and to put the aggressor in his place. I think for them it is the victory already, Zelensky said.

But for us, he continued, growing emotional, for the people at the front line who lost their brothers at arms, the civilians who lost their relatives, those who fled abroad but have husbands on the front line for us, victory is a moment of satisfaction.

We are grateful that the West did not let Russia occupy us [fully], but we need justice.

In other words, Zelensky, who still maintains a 60% popularity rating among Ukrainians, must listen to the voices of his people and his soldiers, who wont accept surrendering one fifth of their land to Russia after all they have suffered. That burden is visible in the lines on his face.

In practical terms, the first part of Zelenskys real victory is not to allow the full destruction of everything Ukrainian by Putin.

In Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, Moscow tries to wipe out use of the Ukrainian language, the Ukrainian church, and the teaching of Ukrainian history. Children are taught that Ukraine was never a legitimate state.

READ MORE: Ukraines volunteer spirit buoys its fight against Russia | Trudy Rubin

Putins true and imperialistic aim in invading Ukraine is to rebuild the historic Russian empire by physical force or political subversion. Zelensky described how Russia is already pursuing that goal elsewhere: in Belarus, Georgia, and next stop if the West doesnt push back against Putin in the Baltic states, which are NATO members. By bombing Ukraines cities he is trying to make the country unlivable and drive out the population.

The second part of real victory, Zelensky specified, is security for today and for future Ukrainian generations, and the impossibility of the repetition of aggression.

We should be in the European Union for economic security. And we should be in NATO for physical security. If we dont have these two, there is a huge risk for us that the enemy will come back, he said. Ukraine has been invited to start EU accession talks, but the process is lengthy.

Yet Zelensky fears that the West especially the United States is still leery of pushing for real victory. Everybody is still afraid that Russia can split apart, everybody is afraid of what will happen to Russia without Putin and whether it will stay as it is or get worse.

As a result, he said, Putin is free to pursue his strategy of taking as much as possible. Any step forward on our territory, any occupation, any village even fully destroyed is positive for them, because it is important for them to bargain as much as possible, he noted.

At the opportune moment (especially if Donald Trump wins the presidency), Putin can then say we are ready [for talks] and while they are ready, they always need a pause.

A cease-fire is the best option for the Russians so they can prepare for taking even more, Zelensky said.

Putins victory would be incompatible with life for Ukraine, Zelensky told me. Bit by bit, they are washing away Ukrainian independence. They take territory, then legislate [to annex it] or invent economic or security unions with Moscow, and then they dissolve the country in this mud, in this Russian mud.

That is why we need to be strong, not to lose our country.

I asked Zelensky how Ukraine could overcome Russias superiority in manpower and weapons.

His reply was clear. And from what I saw in my two weeks in Ukraine including a visit to the eastern front line it makes sense.

First of all, manpower. Really, they have much more people, and really, we are taking care of our people more. But today we have one dead Ukrainian for six Russians on the eastern and northern fronts, he said.

British intelligence sources say the Russians are now losing 1,200 men a day, the highest rate of the entire war. Even for a Russian military that treats soldiers like cannon fodder, this ratio is untenable.

Second, Zelensky explained, this is a different kind of war, a war of technologies, and the one who is more technologically advanced can win. That means the West must deny the Russians the opportunity to develop the manufacture of drones (including copies of Iranian Shaheds) and missiles, by preventing Russia from dodging sanctions on chips and spare parts that come from European allies and from China.

Third, Ukraine is already producing advanced drones and racing toward production of advanced missiles. But we need funding so that we can be more technologically developed than Russia, Zelensky said. This presents great opportunities for joint production with Western governments or private firms.

And fourth, further sanctions on Russias oil and gas exports are needed, which would mean that in 2025, the Russian economy will be shrinking and will force Putin to raise taxes and skimp on social benefits for the public.

READ MORE: U.S., allies must stop playing Patriot games with Ukraine | Trudy Rubin

Whats the scariest for him is a dissatisfied Russian society, Zelensky said. That is the nuclear weapon against a nuclear Putin. As soon as the West stops being afraid of Russia after Putin, Russia without Putin will happen more quickly. His circle around him will feel that.

The only possible negotiations Zelensky envisions would be talks based on his own peace plan calling for full withdrawal from Ukraine, reparations and justice for Russian war crimes.

But what about Trump, who wants to cut off military aid to Ukraine and says the can war can be over in 24 hours? The GOP presidential candidate has said hed demand a cease-fire from both sides and force them to negotiate, effectively giving Putin what he wants and preventing Ukraine from taking back more occupied land. Not to mention that Putin has broken every accord between Russia and Ukraine in the last three decades.

If Trump has such a model [to end the war in 24 hours], well, everyone would like to finalize the war. Maybe even in one hour would be better, Zelensky joked. But if the idea is to give up our territories, no, it will not solve the issue. It will not work; it will not lead to peace [globally] or between Ukraine and Russia.

What is needed is to give us security. Membership in NATO is good not only for Ukraine; it would provide security for Russia, Zelensky said. The Ukrainian border would be fixed, no further Russian invasion could cause another war, and the world wouldnt be afraid that Putin would come back again.

Sadly, the upcoming 75th NATO anniversary summit July 9-11 in Washington will not offer Ukraine a clear path to membership. We understand that the White House is not ready to give us the invitation, Zelensky said with a weary shrug. And Trump is saying the war is NATOs fault.

Unfortunately, this is the policy of one step forward, two steps back, the Ukrainian leader said, regretfully. I dont think this is the policy of world leaders. These are the very cautious steps of my de-miners in the minefield.

If the United States is afraid to annoy Putin, and this is the reason why we are not invited, then we ask our strategic partners to give us what would protect us: Patriots [anti-missile systems], a substantial number of F-16s, and the opportunity to use weapons [inside Russia].

If NATO is not ready to protect us, and to take us into the alliance, Zelensky said firmly, then we ask NATO to give us everything so we can protect ourselves.

At this moment, Putin smells American weakness and hopes for a Trump presidency that could cut off Ukraine and abandon NATO. Meanwhile, Putin is allied with Iran, North Korea, and China, which sees the fate of Ukraine as a litmus test for whether it can seize Taiwan. So it would be catastrophic if the White House failed to provide Ukraine with everything it needed before the November election.

Watching the bone-tired Zelensky exit the conference room, bereft of the full backing he needs to defeat Putin, was painful, because Ukraine could still repel Russia. But that would require Biden to display the level of courage that Ukraines president must summon every day.

Continued here:

Zelensky lays out how Ukraine can win, if the West loses its fear of Putin | Trudy Rubin - The Philadelphia Inquirer

A Russian attack on Vilniansk, a town in the eastern region of Zaporizhzhia, killed seven people, three of them children, officials said on Sunday.

A Russian missile attack on the town of Vilniansk in the eastern Ukrainian region of Zaporizhzhia killed seven people, including three children, local officials said on Sunday.

At least 38 people were also wounded in Saturday evening's attack, authorities said, and declared a day of mourning on Sunday. Eight of them were reportedly children.

The attack caused a huge fire and severe damage to residential buildings, critical infrastructure and vehicles.

Ukrainian officials published photos of bodies stretched out under picnic blankets in a park in Vilniansk, and deep craters in the blackened earth next to the charred, twisted remains of a building.

Firefighters could be seen battling the flames and conducting rescue operations.

Governor Ivan Fedorov said shortly after the attack that it took place "in broad daylight on a weekend in a place where people were spending their leisure time downtown. Without any military infrastructure.

Police investigators and the Security Service of Ukraine have opened an investigation into the potential war crime.

Vilniansk is in the Zaporizhzhia region, less than 30 kilometres from the local capital and north of the front lines, as Russian forces continue to occupy part of the province.

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Russian missile attack on eastern Ukraine kills seven, three of them children - Euronews

One person was killed and nine others including an eight-month-old baby were injured Sunday in a strike on a post office in Ukraine's second city Kharkiv, local authorities said.

The head of Kharkiv's regional administration, Oleg Synegubov, said a post office employee was killed.

The city of Kharkiv has been regularly targeted by Russian troops, who launched a major ground offensive in the region on May 10.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the offensive in Ukraine's northeast was intended to create a "buffer zone" to protect Russia's border Belgorod region from shelling.

On Saturday, seven people were also killed and nearly 40 injured in a Russian strike on Vilniansk, close to the regional hub of Zaporizhzhia.

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One Dead, Nine Wounded in Bombing of Post Office in Ukraine - The Moscow Times

Near the border of northeastern Ukraine, some of Russia's lethal Su-34 fighter jets sit in the open.

The bombers have been used to pound Ukraine with regular barrages of glide bombs.

But Ukraine must seek US approval to strike the exposed jets.

Near the border with northeastern Ukraine, some of Russia's deadly Su-34 fighter bombers lie exposed on the tarmac of a military airfield as they await orders to carry out their next attack.

Voronezh Malshevo airbase is a launching point for jets operated by the Russian Air Force's 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment.

The 47th has regularly taken part in attacks on the Kharkiv region while also frequently carrying out strikes on Ukrainian forces and civilians using highly destructive glide bombs.

Satellite images of Voronezh Malshevo airbase show what appears to be a group of Su-34s, along with other planes and helicopters, lined up on the runway seemingly there for the taking.

At just 100 miles from the Ukrainian border, the base is easily within range of Ukraine's US-manufactured Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a 300 km (186 miles) surface-to-surface artillery weapon system.

However, the United States prohibits Ukraine from striking recognized Russian territory with the ATACMS. Kyiv is only permitted to strike targets within sovereign territory, including occupied territory. Ukraine this month struck Sevastopol in occupied Crimea with ATACMS missiles, killing at least four people and injuring over 150 others. Moscow blamed the United States for the attack and vowed to retaliate.

It will likely be a major frustration for Kyiv, which has embarked on a dedicated campaign to hamper the Russian Air Force and take out the Su-34s.

Ukraine has often been forced to rely on equipment like drones to carry out these strikes, which can be thwarted using electronic systems.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces launched at least 70 drones at a military airbase in Russia's Rostov region, almost 200 miles from the Ukrainian border.

In that attack, a satellite image of an airfield close to Morozovsk also showed what appeared to be multiple Su-34 fighter bombers once again lined up in the open.

A Russian Telegram channel claimed one source in the Russian General Staff said: "Most of the drones were shot down, a few failed. We have six dead, including two military pilots. And more than ten wounded."

The extent of the damage to aircraft caused by the attack was not yet known.

Russia has ramped up its use of powerful glide bombs as its war in Ukraine has progressed.

The cheap munitions are produced by attaching wings and satellite navigation systems to old Soviet-era bombs.

Russian jets like the Su-34 are then able to release them from safer distances, making it hard for Ukraine to counter such attacks.

New video footage shared on Russian Telegram channels last week appeared to capture the first combat use of Russia's huge 6,600-pound glide bomb.

The colossal FAB-3000 bomb was dropped by a Su-34 jet, Forbes reported.

"The fact that Russian forces have figured out how to launch FAB-3000s is a significant development and will increase the destructive potential of Russia's ongoing glide bomb attacks against Ukrainian forces and infrastructure," the Institute for the Study of War wrote in an update on the conflict.

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Deadly Russian Su-34 bombers are sitting ducks for Ukraine's ATACMS. But it can't attack without US approval. - Yahoo! Voices

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024

Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

June 29, 2024, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISWs 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISWs archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30pm ET on June 29. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Two prominent Russian officials appear to be spearheading divergent paths for addressing religious extremism in Russia as ethnic and religious tension in Russia continues to rise.Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin commented on the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan and claimed on June 29 that Islamic terrorists were "able to carry their banner of Islamic terror" into Russia and that the State Duma must respond to the threat of Islamic terrorists in Russia.[1]Bastrykin's indictment of Islamists prompted backlash from Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov, who urged Bastrykin and other Russian officials to choose their words carefully and avoid characterizing all Muslims as terrorists.[2]Kadyrov warned that such statements threaten the unity and stability of Russia's socio-political situation. Russian milbloggers and lower-level Russian officials have previously participated in similar debates, and it is significant that Kadyrov was willing to openly criticize another high-level Kremlin official on this issue.[3]Bastrykin has previously positioned himself as a prominent figure in Russia's ultranationalist movement and is placing himself at odds with Kadyrov, who often presents himself as a representative of Russia's Muslim minority.[4]Putin previously attempted to quell concerns within the Russian information space about the threat posed by migrant and Muslim communities following the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22 by simultaneously calling for unspecified changes to Russia's migration policy and denouncing Islamophobia and xenophobia.[5]Putin may weigh in on Bastrykin's and Kadyrov's debate in the coming days in hopes of similarly quelling concern among Russians and a possible future conflict between Bastrykin and Kadyrov.

Russian ultranationalists continue to express growing doubt in Russian authorities' ability to prevent another terrorist attack and to address ethnic and religious tensions within Russia following the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan.Russian ultranationalists widely circulated a story alleging that extremists harassed a Russian doctor in Dagestan who refused to see a patient who would not remove her niqab (a long garment worn by some Muslim women to cover their entire body and face, excluding their eyes) and claimed that extremist actors orchestrated the event to incite further ethnic and religious tensions within Dagestan.[6]Russian ultranationalists also claimed that Dagestani officials know the identities of extremist thought leaders but have allowed radical Salafi-Jihadists to control entire spheres of public life within the republic.[7]These claims led to renewed discussions about banning niqab in Russia, which prompted Bastrykin to voice indirect support for banning the style of dress.[8]Select Western and Muslim-majority countries have imposed various statutes banning religious dress and garments that cover one's face, although the Russian ultranationalist discussion focusing on niqab is strange given the scarcity of Muslims wearing niqab in Russia. The Russian ultranationalist preoccupation with the niqab appears to be a talking point for ultranationalists to express their perception of an extremist threat emanating from Russia's Muslim-minority communities and to criticize Russian authorities for not doing enough to prevent what ultranationalists consider to be inevitable future terrorist attacks.[9]Russian ultranationalists will likely continue to express their fears about further terrorist attacks in ways that further inflame ethnic and religious tension, and ISW continues to assess that Russian ultranationalist rhetoric is partially alienating minority and Muslim-majority communities and generating animosities that Salafi-Jihadi groups can exploit in recruitment efforts.[10]

Ten Ukrainian civilians whom Russian and Belarusian authorities arrested and held in captivity or prison, including individuals detained before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, returned to Ukraine.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on June 29 that 10 Ukrainian civilians returned to Ukraine from Russian and Belarusian captivity as part of the 53rd prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange that Ukrainian officials initially announced on June 25.[11]Ukrainian officials stated that among the returned civilians were First Deputy Head of the Crimean Tatar Majlis Nariman Dzhelyal, whom Russian authorities arrested in 2021; two Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church priests, whom Russian authorities arrested in occupied Berdyansk in 2022; five Ukrainian citizens, whom Belarusian authorities arrested in Belarus; and two Ukrainian civilians, whom Russian authorities detained in occupied Donetsk Oblast in 2017.[12]Zelensky stated that the Vatican mediated the return of the 10 Ukrainian civilians.[13]Ukrainian and Russian officials have not commented on whether Russia received civilians or POWs in exchange for these 10 Ukrainian civilians.

Key Takeaways:

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Kharkiv Oblast(Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv City on June 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv City) on June 28 and 29.[14]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are conducting TOS-1A thermobaric artillery strikes in the Lyptsi direction (north of Kharkiv City) and that Russian forces destroyed an unspecified crossing over the Vovcha River in Vovchansk.[15]Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that some Russian soldiers operating in the Vovchansk direction, particularly soldiers of the 153rd Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]), are refusing to fight.[16]Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly operating within the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant.[17]Ukrainian officials recently reported on June 16 and 23 that Russian forces attempted to withdraw elements of the 83rd VDV Brigade that became combat-ineffective after suffering high losses in the Kharkiv direction.[18]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 Luhansk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently marginally advanced southeast of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna amid continued fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 28 and 29. Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along a railway line south of Ivanivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[19]Additional geolocated footage published on June 28 and 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Terny (west of Kreminna) and within a forest area southwest of Kreminna.[20]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced roughly one kilometer in depth southeast of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk) and seized positions north of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[21]Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from forested areas east of Myasozharivka (west of Svatove) and advanced to the administrative borders of the settlement.[22]Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced near Nevske (southwest of Svatove).[23]A Ukrainian serviceman operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces are using drones to drop chemical munitions, incendiary substances, gases, and poisonous substances on Ukrainian positions in this direction.[24]Russian forces continued assaults southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Kruhlyakivka; southwest of Svatove near Makiivka and Hrekivka; west of Kreminna near Torske; and southwest of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area on June 28 and 29.[25]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Siversk direction on June 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian claimed that elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th Airborne Division) recently seized Rozdolivka (south of Siversk) and that Russian forces are advancing toward Pereizne (south of Siversk and north of Rozdolivka), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of these claims.[26]Russian forces continued attacks south of Siversk near Spirne and Vyimka on June 29.[27]Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne Regiment (106th VDV Division) are also reportedly operating near Pereizne.[28]

Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on June 29. Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced within the Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar).[29]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in the forest area south of Kalynivka (north of Chasiv Yar).[30]Fighting continued near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar) on June 29.[31]Elements of the Russian 98th VDV Division reportedly continue operating near Chasiv Yar.[32]

Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Toretsk direction amid continued Russian ground attacks in the area on June 29. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced up to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal east of Druzhba (east of Toretsk).[33]The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Shumy (southeast of Toretsk) as of June 29, although Russian and Ukrainian sources began claiming that Russian forces seized the settlement on June 22.[34]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Pivnichne and Zalizne (both southeast of Toretsk) and advanced up to 2.3 kilometers deep and 1.65 kilometers wide on the outskirts of Pivdenne (southeast of Toretsk).[35]Russian forces continued ground attacks near Toretsk, east of Toretsk near Pivnichne, and southeast of Toretsk near Pivdenne and Niu York.[36]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Avdiivka on June 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Sokil (northwest of Avdiivka) and advanced to the western outskirts of Yevhenivka (northwest of Avdiivka).[37]Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the outskirts of Sokil.[38]Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Umanske (west of Avdiivka).[39]A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces are using high-speed motorcycles in the Pokrovsk direction (Avdiivka direction) in unsuccessful attempts to bypass Ukrainian defenses.[40]Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil and west of Avdiivka near Yasnobrodivka and Karlivka on June 29.[41]

Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on June 29. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within southwestern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City).[42]Additional geolocated footage published on June 29 showing Ukrainian forces repelling a roughly platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[43]A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated on June 28 that Ukrainian forces recently repelled a roughly reinforced company-sized Russian mechanized assault in an unspecified area in the Kurakhove direction (west and southwest of Donetsk City).[44]The brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces used nine tanks and nine armored vehicles in the assault and that Ukrainian forces destroyed one tank and damaged four others, including some T-90 tanks. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Maksymilyanivka (west of Donetsk City).[45]Fighting continued west of Donetsk City within Krasnohorivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane on June 29.[46]Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue operating near Maksymilyanivka.[47]

Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine on June 29.[48]Elements of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (subordinate to the Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[49]

Russian Supporting Effort Southern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Positional engagements continued in western Zaporzhia Oblast on June 29. Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Robotyne, Verbove (east of Robotyne), Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne) and Novodanylivka (north of Robotyne) on June 29.[50]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces occupied strongholds near Robotyne.[51]A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are struggling to detect and suppress Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones as Ukrainian forces have changed the drones' frequencies.[52]Elements of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Robotyne.[53]

Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian diesel train with FPV drones near Tokmak.[54]

Positional engagements continued in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on June 29.[55]A Russian milblogger claimed that there are small arms battles in the island zone near the Antonivsky railway and road bridges (north of Poyma and Oleshky, respectively).[56]The milblogger claimed that Russian military authorities claimed that Russian forces took complete control of the entire island zone, but Russian frontline soldiers refuted these reports. Elements of the Russian 80th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and the 52nd Airborne (VDV) Artillery Brigade are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction.[57]

Russian officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted an unspecified missile strike against occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on June 29 and that missile fragments fell on private homes.[58]

Russian Air, Missile, and 10ampaign(Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a limited number of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 28 to 29. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and that Ukrainian forces shot down all 10 drones over Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia oblasts.[59]The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) posted footage on June 28 purporting to show Russian forces striking a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Velykodolynske, Odesa Oblast with an unspecified type of Iskander missile.[60]

Ukrainian energy enterprises continue to report that previous Russian strikes have significantly constrained Ukraine's energy grid. The CEO of private Ukrainian energy enterprise DTEK, Ildar Saleev, stated on June 29 that previous Russian strikes have taken 90 percent of DTEK's energy generation capacity offline and that DTEK will repair damaged thermal power plants (TPPs) over the course of years.[61]The CEO of Ukrainian private energy enterprise YASNO, Serhii Kovalenko, stated on June 29 that Ukraine will likely face a 30 percent electricity deficit in Winter 2024-2025 and that scheduled emergency power outages could last for weeks in the winter.[62]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Some new Russian military personnel are reportedly receiving insufficient training before deploying to Ukraine. A Russian milblogger claimed that new Russian personnel receive roughly 14 days of training on average before deploying to the frontline.[63]The milblogger noted that new Russian personnel receives four to five days of real training and that the 14 days encompass the time between signing a military contract and arriving at the front in Ukraine.[64]A former Storm-Z instructor agreed with the milblogger's assessment and bemoaned problems with general training.[65]The milblogger also noted that an average Ukrainian soldier appears to receive much more training than the average Russian soldier.[66]The Russian military is currently committing all Russian forces, regardless of their formal designations, to more or less similar operations along the front and continues to mainly leverage mass in infantry and occasional mechanized assaults to make creeping advances instead of relying on highly trained units.[67]This decision has likely lowered training requirements for most new Russian personnel set to fight in Ukraine, although 14 days is still insufficient for generating even limited combat effective personnel. While many new Russian personnel may receive inadequate training, Russian forces likely provide Russian personnel with further training following deployment to Ukraine and are likely attempting to offer better training for select elements.

Russian Technological Adaptations(Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Nothing significant to report.

Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)

ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) responded to the US State Department's 2023 International Religious Freedom report on Russia on June 28 and denied the veracity of the report as part of ongoing Russian informational efforts to present Russia as a unified multireligious and multiethnic country.[68]The State Department's 2023 report on religious freedom in Russia and Ukraine details Russian authorities' repression of religious minorities in Russia and occupied Ukraine, which is consistent with ISW's reporting on the issue.[69]

Significant activity in Belarus(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported on June 28 that Belarusian and Russian propagandists are falsely presenting Ukraine as a threat to Belarus.[70]Russian milbloggers claimed on June 29 that Russia must be prepared to defend Belarus against Ukrainian aggression and that Russia could preemptively destroy Kyiv City with glide bombs or other unspecified weapons in order to protect Belarus.[71]Russian forces would have to operate Russian aircraft at the international border or within Ukrainian airspace in order to strike Kyiv City with glide bombs. Belarusian military officials claimed that there have been no provocations along the Ukraine-Belarus border since an alleged drone strike into Belarus by all-Russian pro-Ukrainian forces on June 26 and presented Belarusian forces as well-prepared to address any possible threat from Ukraine.[72]The Belarusian State Border Committee claimed on June 28 that Belarusian forces shot down an alleged drone from the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) near the Ukraine-Belarus border in Gomel Oblast on June 26.[73]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1]https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/29/06/2024/667fd4c59a794736547a8cd3

[2]https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4879

[3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar06272024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar061624;https://isw.pub/UkrWar040924;https://isw.pub/UkrWar032324;https://isw.pub/UkrWar040424

[4]https://isw.pub/UkrWar041024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar062824;https://isw.pub/UkrWar06272024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar032424;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

[5]https://isw.pub/UkrWar040424;https://isw.pub/UkrWar040224;https://isw.pub/UkrWar032824

[6] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921

[7]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ;https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919;https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921

[8]https://t.me/dva_majors/46381 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71474 ; https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/29/06/2024/667fd4c59a794736547a8cd3 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921

[9]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

[10]https://isw.pub/UkrWar032324; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

[11]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024;https://www.facebook.com/watch/zelenskyy.official/?ref=embed_video;https://t.me/Koord_shtab/6777; https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-uchasnikiv-nacionalnogo-mo-91873 ; https://suspilne dot media/779707-pid-cas-obminu-polonenimi-z-rf-v-ukrainu-vdalosa-povernuti-dvoh-svasennikiv-zelenskij/ ;https://suspilnedot media/779749-zelenskij-zustrivsa-iz-dzelalom-akogo-rosiani-utrimuvali-u-poloni-z-2021-roku/; https://gur dot gov.ua/content/zavershyvsia-53-i-obmin---z-rosiiskoi-nevoli-vyzvoleni-politychni-brantsi-kremlia-ta-nezakonno-zasudzheni-ukraintsi.html

[12]https://t.me/astrapress/58537;https://t.me/Koord_shtab/6777;https://www.presidentdot gov.ua/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-uchasnikiv-nacionalnogo-mo-91873;https://www.kyivpostdot com/post/35058

[13]https://t.me/Koord_shtab/6777;https://www.president.govdot ua/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-uchasnikiv-nacionalnogo-mo-91873

[14]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02XWNFBEPPKsbYa2D7SM3AXkz2ARUvgPjUDDRmMNWjkJZqtuPauFe2tLrKh6ABn7u4l;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0vr8stiyppwMeTLKJSDdo1PLDgHBfvQTKMNDocxqeMpWkkBnqZtXpCokiZs4xWVNul;https://t.me/wargonzo/20774;https://t.me/dva_majors/46364;https://t.me/rybar/61374

[15]https://t.me/dva_majors/46364;https://t.me/rybar/61374;https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71458

[16]https://www.youtube.com/live/hf29n-2E9nk?si=4hQrY7wxbkaDZvHJ;https://armyinform.comdot ua/2024/06/29/poblyzu-vovchanska-rosijski-shturmovyky-vidmovlyayutsya-vykonuvaty-zavdannya/

[17]https://t.me/khornegroup/2203;https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1806753591777984919;https://armyinform.comdot ua/2024/06/29/smertelna-pastka-dlya-rusni-u-vovchansku-dron-z-protytankovoyu-minoyu-strim-iz-pryfrontovogo-mista/

[18]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024

[19]https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5931;https://t.me/ssternenko/30439;https://x.com/blinzka/status/1807006730468925935;https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1806958507989561813

[20]https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5927;https://t.me/BARS011/12120;https://t.me/ombr_63/722;https://x.com/foosint/status/1806762335891013682;https://x.com/foosint/status/1806762339368067098

[21]https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/12271

[22]https://t.me/rybar/61367

[23]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71446;https://t.me/z_arhiv/27158;https://t.me/boris_rozhin/128350?single

[24]https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/06/29/na-lymanskomu-napryamku-rosiyany-aktyvno-zastosovuyut-otrujni-gazy/

[25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02XWNFBEPPKsbYa2D7SM3AXkz2ARUvgPjUDDRmMNWjkJZqtuPauFe2tLrKh6ABn7u4l;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0vr8stiyppwMeTLKJSDdo1PLDgHBfvQTKMNDocxqeMpWkkBnqZtXpCokiZs4xWVNul ;https://t.me/dva_majors/46364;https://t.me/rybar/61374;https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71446;https://t.me/motopatriot/24371

[26]https://t.me/rybar/61379;https://t.me/motopatriot/24359

[27]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl

[28]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71432

[29]https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5930; https://t.me/igorgrouppp/32

[30]https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/12274;https://t.me/z_arhiv/27156;https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/37226

[31]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl ; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl ;https://t.me/wargonzo/20774;https://t.me/dva_majors/46364

[32]https://t.me/boris_rozhin/128314

[33]https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5924; https://t.me/rubpak28/242; https://t.me/z_arhiv/27153; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/128350; https://t.me/motopatriot/24376

[34]https://t.me/mod_russia/40434 ;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-23-2024

[35]https://t.me/z_arhiv/27153;https://t.me/boris_rozhin/128350;https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71446

[36]https://t.me/rybar/61395; https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl

[37]https://t.me/z_arhiv/27155;https://t.me/motopatriot/24374;https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71470

[38]https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18243 ;https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18248; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/57282

[39]https://t.me/z_arhiv/27155

[40]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2024/06/28/na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-vorog-perejshov-do-taktyky-motoczykly-v-odyn-kinecz/

[41]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl ;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02XWNFBEPPKsbYa2D7SM3AXkz2ARUvgPjUDDRmMNWjkJZqtuPauFe2tLrKh6ABn7u4l;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl;https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/57282;https://t.me/motopatriot/24370

[42]https://t.me/rybar/61363; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5925; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/596

[43]https://x.com/moklasen/status/1806990315384963473 ; https://x.com/moklasen/status/1806990839874253144; https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/606; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5929; https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=707250541494256

[44]https://armyinform.comdot ua/2024/06/28/na-kurahivskomu-napryamku-vorog-namagayetsya-atakuvaty-bronovanymy-kulakamy/

[45]https://t.me/rybar/61363

[46]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl ;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl;https://t.me/NgP_raZVedka/18243;https://t.me/rybar/61363;https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/12262;https://t.me/wargonzo/20774

See the original post here:

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024 - Institute for the Study of War

Slowly but steadily this summer, Russian troops are forging through Ukraine's outgunned and undermanned defenses in a relentless onslaught, prompting the West to push for new weapons and strategies to shore up Kyiv.

That, in turn, has brought new threats by President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against the West either directly or indirectly.

The moves by the West to blunt the offensive and the potential Kremlin response could lead to a dangerous escalation as the war drags through its third year one that further raises the peril of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Russias probing offensive

Russia took advantage of its edge in firepower amid delays in U.S. aid to scale up attacks in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front. Relatively small units are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak spots, potentially setting the stage for a more ambitious push.

Russia's offensive near Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, that began in May and worried Kyivs Western allies has apparently lost momentum after the Ukrainian army bolstered its forces in the area by redeploying troops from other sectors.

Meanwhile, Russia has made incremental but steady advances in the Donetsk region, including around the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar, a gateway to parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Analysts say the fall of Chasiv Yar would threaten the key military hubs of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Putin declared that Moscow wasnt seeking quick gains and would stick to the current strategy of advancing slowly.

Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that by stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its military that lacks the size and training for a major offensive.

The breadth of the strikes has forced Ukraine to spread out its artillery, "expending munitions to break up successive Russian attacks, he said in an analysis. Russias aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometer by kilometer, along the front.

Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment said Russia's apparent goal is to maintain pressure and try to stretch out Ukraine's forces. He noted that even though Ukraine managed to stabilize the front line, it had to use reserves intended to be deployed elsewhere.

It will take more and more time to actually regenerate Ukraines combat strength because of that, he said in a recent podcast.

Moscow also has stepped up airstrikes on Ukraines energy facilities and other vital infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country had lost about 80% of its thermal power and one-third of its hydroelectric power in the strikes.

This will be a growing problem when we talk about the future Ukraines economic viability, Kofman said.

Watling said the shortage of air defenses is giving Ukraine a difficult choice between concentrating them to safeguard critical infrastructure, or protecting troops on the front.

The persistence of Russias long-range strike campaign means that not only is the front being stretched laterally, but it is also being extended in its depth, he said.

The West responds, the Kremlin counters

Washington and some NATO allies have responded to the offensive by allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons for limited strikes inside Russia. The U.S. has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv and elsewhere near the border, but, to Kyiv's dismay, Washington so far hasnt given permission for strikes deeper in Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron and some other Western officials argue that Kyiv has the right to use their equipment to attack military assets anywhere in Russia. There also has been talk by Macron and the leaders of NATO's Baltic members but not the U.S. of deploying troops to Ukraine.

Putin warns that this would be a major escalation, and he threatened to retaliate by providing weapons to Western adversaries elsewhere in the world.

He reinforced that argument by signing a mutual defense pact with North Korea in June and holding the door open for arms supplies to Pyongyang.

He declared that just as the West says Ukraine can decide how to use Western weapons, Moscow could provide arms to North Korea and similarly say that we supply something to somebody but have no control over what happens afterward an apparent hint at Pyongyangs role as arms trader.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russias Security Council, noted Moscow could arm anyone who considers the U.S. and its allies their enemies, regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.

Another threat of escalation followed a Ukrainian attack with U.S.-made ATACMS missiles that killed four and injured over 150 in Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Russia's Defense Ministry warned it could take unspecified measures against U.S. drones over the Black Sea that provide intelligence to Ukraine.

The nuclear threat and Putin's long game

Putin said it was wrong for NATO to assume that Russia won't use its nuclear arsenal, reaffirming it will use all means if its sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened.

He also warned that Moscow was pondering possible changes to its doctrine that specifies when it resorts to nuclear weapons.

Underscoring that, Russia held military drills with battlefield nuclear weapons involving Belarus. Last year, Moscow deployed some of those weapons to Belarus to try to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.

A military defeat in Ukraine, Putin said, would deal a deadly blow to Russian statehood, and he vowed to press his goals to the end.

He declared that for Russia to halt the fighting, Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the four regions that Moscow annexed in 2022, an idea Kyiv and its allies dismissed. He also said Ukraine must abandon its bid to join NATO.

Hawkish Russian commentators criticized Putin for failing to respond forcefully to NATO ramping up support for Kyiv and allowing the West to continuously push back Russias red lines. Some argued that if the damage grows from Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia with longer-range Western missiles, Moscow should hit NATO assets.

Vasily Kashin, a Moscow-based defense analyst, noted that while Ukraine already had used Western weapons to inflict limited damage, Putin will have to do something if there are cruise missile strikes deep inside Russian territory resulting in significant casualties.

Russia could respond by targeting Western drones or U.S. spy satellites, or also strike some NATO countries assets in overseas territories to minimize triggering an all-out conflict with the alliance, Kashin said.

Other Russian commentators argued, however, that such action fraught with triggering a direct conflict with NATO isnt in Moscows interests.

Moscow-based security analyst Sergei Poletaev said the Kremlin aims to steadily drain Ukrainian resources to force Kyiv into accepting a peace deal on Russia's terms.

While nothing spectacular is happening on the front line, he said, "constant dropping wears away a stone.

Moscows military advantage allows it to maintain pressure along the entire front line and make new advances while waiting for Ukraine to break down, he said in a commentary

Lacking the resources for a major offensive, the Kremlin has opted for slow advances, aiming to keep pressure on Ukraine while warding off the West from direct involvement in hostilities, Poletaev said.

We must walk the razor's edge between our victory and a nuclear war, he said.

Go here to read the rest:

Russia presses its offensive in Ukraine and issues new threats as the West tries to blunt the push - Yahoo! Voices

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Russian attacks across eastern Ukraine killed at least 11 people Saturday, while rescuers in the city of Dnipro dug through rubble after a Russian strike ripped through a nine-story residential building, leaving one dead, officials said.

The attacks came as Russia continues to stretch out Ukrainian forces in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front. Moscow has stepped up airstrikes in a bid to drain Ukraines resources, often targeting energy facilities and other vital infrastructure.

The shelling of the front-line village of Niu-York in the Donetsk region also wounded five people, Gov. Vadym Filashkin said. He said that Russian forces had shelled populated areas 13 times over the past 24 hours.

A further seven people were killed Saturday afternoon in Russian shelling on the town of Vilniansk, including two children, Gov. Ivan Fedorov said. Ten other people were wounded, while infrastructure was also damaged, he wrote on social media.

Meanwhile, in Dnipro, at least one person died and 12 were wounded, including a 7-month-old girl, after a Russian strike destroyed the top four floors of the apartment building on Friday evening, regional head Serhii Lysak said. Rescuers confirmed that several residents remained missing.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Dnipro attack was a reminder to Ukraines allies that the country needed more air defense systems. The Ukrainian air force said Saturday that it had downed 10 Russian drones overnight.

This is why we constantly remind all of our partners: only a sufficient amount of high-quality air defense systems, only a sufficient amount of determination from the world at large can stop Russian terror, he said.

Russian officials also reported Ukrainian attacks, with a drone strike killing five people in Russias Kursk region, local officials said Saturday.

A Ukrainian drone strike killed at least five people in Russias Kursk region, local officials said Saturday. Two children were among the victims of the attack in the village of Gorodishche on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Gov. Alexey Smirnov said on social media.

In its morning statement, the Russian Defense Ministry said that six Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight over the countrys Tver, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, as well as over the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. It didn't give information on the reported strike in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian government also responded Saturday to a statement from the Belarusian military saying it had increased its forces along Ukraines northern border in response to what it described as security threats.

The announcement came after Belarus border agency claimed its troops downed a Ukrainian drone that had flown across the border to gather intelligence.

Kyiv denied the accusations, which it described as Russian propaganda.

The Russians task is simple to draw more of our forces (to the Belarusian border), Ukraines Center for Countering Disinformation said in a statement. Any information about our activity in the border area is a lie.

Belarus authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has close ties with Russia and allowed Moscow to use his countrys territory to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

___

Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Link:

12 killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine. Rescue work continues at destroyed apartment building - Yahoo! Voices

(Reuters) -Russian forces attacked Ukraine's two largest cities on Sunday, with missile fragments falling on a suburban Kyiv apartment building and a guided bomb killing one person in Kharkiv.

More than 28 months into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces maintain regular attacks on Ukrainian cities as well as on energy infrastructure.

Attacks on Kyiv are less frequent than other cities, although the capital endured a series of assaults in March. Kharkiv has come under regular attack, but military analysts say the frequency has dipped since the United States authorised Ukrainian use of its weapons on certain Russian targets.

In Kyiv's Obolon suburb, the local military administration said falling fragments from a Russian missile started a fire and damaged balconies on a 14-storey apartment building on Sunday.

Emergency services, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said five female residents were treated for stress, and Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 10 residents had been evacuated.

Emergency services posted a picture online showing at least four blackened balconies.

The head of the military administration of Kyiv region said missile fragments had also fallen outside the capital, causing injuries and damage, though no details were provided.

Russian forces were prevented from advancing on Kyiv in the early weeks of the February 2022 invasion and were redeployed along the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line in the east.

In Kharkiv, which never fell into Russian hands in the early stages of the war, a guided bomb started a fire and killed a delivery service driver outside a depot on Sunday.

Regional Governor Oleh Synehubov said nine people were injured, including an 8-month-old infant. Pictures posted online showed the depot and trucks outside it badly damaged.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a post on Telegram, said Russia had used more than 800 guided bombs on Ukrainian targets in the past week. He issued a fresh plea in his nightly video address for better weapons systems.

"The sooner the world helps us deal with the Russian combat aircraft launching these bombs, the sooner we can strike - justifiably strike Russian military infrastructure...and the closer we will be to peace," he said.

(Reporting by Ron Popeski and Bogdan Kochubey; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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Russia attacks Ukraine's two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv - Yahoo! Voices

DONETSK REGION, Ukraine (AP) Drone footage from Ukraines military released Sunday has shown what appears to be bodies in a civilian area in the embattled eastern town of Toretsk, which has come under heavy Russian bombardment in recent days.

The attacks in the war-torn Donetsk region have prompted a scaled-up evacuation effort by Ukrainian rescue services. Local officials said that powerful Russian glide bombs have also been used in the town, the latest eastern front flash point as Russian attacks continue to put stretched Ukrainian front-line units on the defensive.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that Russia had dropped more than 800 glide bombs in Ukraine in the past week alone.

Ukraine needs the necessary means to destroy the carriers of these bombs, including Russian combat aircraft, wherever they are. This step is essential, he wrote in an online post.

Glide bombs are heavy Soviet-era bombs fitted with precision guidance systems and launched from aircraft flying out of range of air defenses. The bombs weigh more than a ton and blast targets to smithereens, leaving a huge crater.

Police rescuers in Toretsk helped older residents out of their homes, carrying one woman out of her bed and onto a stretcher.

Its a terrible situation, because for three days we could not evacuate, Oksana Zharko, 48, told The Associated Press while leaving the town in a police van with family members and a cat in a plastic carrier box.

Yesterday there was an attack and our house was destroyed very strong, there are no walls left. Everyone is stressed, emotional, in tears. Its very scary.

Russian attacks in recent weeks have focused on the town of Chasiv Yar farther north, as Ukrainian commanders in the area say their resources remain stretched, thanks largely to a monthslong gap in military assistance from the United States.

Ukraine is still struggling to stabilize parts of its front line after desperately needed military assistance was approved by the United States in April.

Zelenskyy called on countries assisting Ukraine to further relax restrictions on using Western weapons to strike military targets inside Russia.

Clear decisions are needed to help protect our people, he said. Long-range strikes and modern air defense are the foundation for stopping the daily Russian terror. I thank all our partners who understand this.

Hours after Zelenskyy spoke, Ukrainian officials said Russian glide bombs had struck near a postal warehouse in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city in the northeast, killing an employee and injuring nine people including an 8-month-old baby.

According to a statement by Nova Poshta, the private postal and courier company that operates the site, the strike set at least seven delivery trucks ablaze, while damaging at least three others and the warehouse itself. One driver died as a result.

As many as nine people remained trapped under burning wreckage, and rescue teams were combing the site on Sunday evening, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram.

Less than a day earlier, Russian missiles slammed into a town in southern Ukraine, killing seven civilians, including children, and wounding dozens, local authorities reported.

Ukrainian officials published photos of bodies stretched out under picnic blankets in a park in Vilniansk, and deep craters in the blackened earth next to the charred, twisted remains of a building.

At least 38 people were wounded in Saturday evening's attack, authorities said, and declared a day of mourning on Sunday. Vilniansk is in the Zaporizhzhia region, less than 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the local capital and north of the front lines, as Russian forces continue to occupy part of the province.

Russia-appointed officials in Donetsk, which is partially occupied and illegally annexed by Moscow, said that Ukrainian shelling on Sunday wounded a 4-year-old boy and a 15-year-old girl. According to Russias Emergencies Ministry, four of its staff also came under shelling Sunday as they attempted to put out a fire in the Kremlin-occupied local capital, also called Donetsk.

The Russian Defense Ministry on Sunday reported its forces overnight shot down three dozen Ukrainian drones over six regions in Russias southwest. It later said that a total of 72 were downed on Saturday and during the night.

Debris from one drone fell on a village in the Kursk region, blowing out windows and damaging roofs and fences, according to a Telegram post by regional Gov. Aleksey Smirnov.

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Associated Press writer Joanna Kozlowska in London contributed to this report.

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Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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Zelenskyy appeals to West to relax targeting limits for Ukraine as glide bombs hammer front line - Yahoo! Voices