Daily Archives: July 1, 2024

Near the border of northeastern Ukraine, some of Russia's lethal Su-34 fighter jets sit in the open.

The bombers have been used to pound Ukraine with regular barrages of glide bombs.

But Ukraine must seek US approval to strike the exposed jets.

Near the border with northeastern Ukraine, some of Russia's deadly Su-34 fighter bombers lie exposed on the tarmac of a military airfield as they await orders to carry out their next attack.

Voronezh Malshevo airbase is a launching point for jets operated by the Russian Air Force's 47th Guards Bomber Aviation Regiment.

The 47th has regularly taken part in attacks on the Kharkiv region while also frequently carrying out strikes on Ukrainian forces and civilians using highly destructive glide bombs.

Satellite images of Voronezh Malshevo airbase show what appears to be a group of Su-34s, along with other planes and helicopters, lined up on the runway seemingly there for the taking.

At just 100 miles from the Ukrainian border, the base is easily within range of Ukraine's US-manufactured Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS), a 300 km (186 miles) surface-to-surface artillery weapon system.

However, the United States prohibits Ukraine from striking recognized Russian territory with the ATACMS. Kyiv is only permitted to strike targets within sovereign territory, including occupied territory. Ukraine this month struck Sevastopol in occupied Crimea with ATACMS missiles, killing at least four people and injuring over 150 others. Moscow blamed the United States for the attack and vowed to retaliate.

It will likely be a major frustration for Kyiv, which has embarked on a dedicated campaign to hamper the Russian Air Force and take out the Su-34s.

Ukraine has often been forced to rely on equipment like drones to carry out these strikes, which can be thwarted using electronic systems.

Earlier this month, Ukrainian forces launched at least 70 drones at a military airbase in Russia's Rostov region, almost 200 miles from the Ukrainian border.

In that attack, a satellite image of an airfield close to Morozovsk also showed what appeared to be multiple Su-34 fighter bombers once again lined up in the open.

A Russian Telegram channel claimed one source in the Russian General Staff said: "Most of the drones were shot down, a few failed. We have six dead, including two military pilots. And more than ten wounded."

The extent of the damage to aircraft caused by the attack was not yet known.

Russia has ramped up its use of powerful glide bombs as its war in Ukraine has progressed.

The cheap munitions are produced by attaching wings and satellite navigation systems to old Soviet-era bombs.

Russian jets like the Su-34 are then able to release them from safer distances, making it hard for Ukraine to counter such attacks.

New video footage shared on Russian Telegram channels last week appeared to capture the first combat use of Russia's huge 6,600-pound glide bomb.

The colossal FAB-3000 bomb was dropped by a Su-34 jet, Forbes reported.

"The fact that Russian forces have figured out how to launch FAB-3000s is a significant development and will increase the destructive potential of Russia's ongoing glide bomb attacks against Ukrainian forces and infrastructure," the Institute for the Study of War wrote in an update on the conflict.

Read the original article on Business Insider

Read the original post:

Deadly Russian Su-34 bombers are sitting ducks for Ukraine's ATACMS. But it can't attack without US approval. - Yahoo! Voices

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024

Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

June 29, 2024, 6pm ET

Click here to see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISWs 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISWs archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30pm ET on June 29. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 30 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Two prominent Russian officials appear to be spearheading divergent paths for addressing religious extremism in Russia as ethnic and religious tension in Russia continues to rise.Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin commented on the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan and claimed on June 29 that Islamic terrorists were "able to carry their banner of Islamic terror" into Russia and that the State Duma must respond to the threat of Islamic terrorists in Russia.[1]Bastrykin's indictment of Islamists prompted backlash from Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov, who urged Bastrykin and other Russian officials to choose their words carefully and avoid characterizing all Muslims as terrorists.[2]Kadyrov warned that such statements threaten the unity and stability of Russia's socio-political situation. Russian milbloggers and lower-level Russian officials have previously participated in similar debates, and it is significant that Kadyrov was willing to openly criticize another high-level Kremlin official on this issue.[3]Bastrykin has previously positioned himself as a prominent figure in Russia's ultranationalist movement and is placing himself at odds with Kadyrov, who often presents himself as a representative of Russia's Muslim minority.[4]Putin previously attempted to quell concerns within the Russian information space about the threat posed by migrant and Muslim communities following the Crocus City Hall attack on March 22 by simultaneously calling for unspecified changes to Russia's migration policy and denouncing Islamophobia and xenophobia.[5]Putin may weigh in on Bastrykin's and Kadyrov's debate in the coming days in hopes of similarly quelling concern among Russians and a possible future conflict between Bastrykin and Kadyrov.

Russian ultranationalists continue to express growing doubt in Russian authorities' ability to prevent another terrorist attack and to address ethnic and religious tensions within Russia following the June 23 terrorist attacks in the Republic of Dagestan.Russian ultranationalists widely circulated a story alleging that extremists harassed a Russian doctor in Dagestan who refused to see a patient who would not remove her niqab (a long garment worn by some Muslim women to cover their entire body and face, excluding their eyes) and claimed that extremist actors orchestrated the event to incite further ethnic and religious tensions within Dagestan.[6]Russian ultranationalists also claimed that Dagestani officials know the identities of extremist thought leaders but have allowed radical Salafi-Jihadists to control entire spheres of public life within the republic.[7]These claims led to renewed discussions about banning niqab in Russia, which prompted Bastrykin to voice indirect support for banning the style of dress.[8]Select Western and Muslim-majority countries have imposed various statutes banning religious dress and garments that cover one's face, although the Russian ultranationalist discussion focusing on niqab is strange given the scarcity of Muslims wearing niqab in Russia. The Russian ultranationalist preoccupation with the niqab appears to be a talking point for ultranationalists to express their perception of an extremist threat emanating from Russia's Muslim-minority communities and to criticize Russian authorities for not doing enough to prevent what ultranationalists consider to be inevitable future terrorist attacks.[9]Russian ultranationalists will likely continue to express their fears about further terrorist attacks in ways that further inflame ethnic and religious tension, and ISW continues to assess that Russian ultranationalist rhetoric is partially alienating minority and Muslim-majority communities and generating animosities that Salafi-Jihadi groups can exploit in recruitment efforts.[10]

Ten Ukrainian civilians whom Russian and Belarusian authorities arrested and held in captivity or prison, including individuals detained before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, returned to Ukraine.Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on June 29 that 10 Ukrainian civilians returned to Ukraine from Russian and Belarusian captivity as part of the 53rd prisoner-of-war (POW) exchange that Ukrainian officials initially announced on June 25.[11]Ukrainian officials stated that among the returned civilians were First Deputy Head of the Crimean Tatar Majlis Nariman Dzhelyal, whom Russian authorities arrested in 2021; two Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church priests, whom Russian authorities arrested in occupied Berdyansk in 2022; five Ukrainian citizens, whom Belarusian authorities arrested in Belarus; and two Ukrainian civilians, whom Russian authorities detained in occupied Donetsk Oblast in 2017.[12]Zelensky stated that the Vatican mediated the return of the 10 Ukrainian civilians.[13]Ukrainian and Russian officials have not commented on whether Russia received civilians or POWs in exchange for these 10 Ukrainian civilians.

Key Takeaways:

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Kharkiv Oblast(Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Fighting continued north and northeast of Kharkiv City on June 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) and Hlyboke (north of Kharkiv City) on June 28 and 29.[14]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are conducting TOS-1A thermobaric artillery strikes in the Lyptsi direction (north of Kharkiv City) and that Russian forces destroyed an unspecified crossing over the Vovcha River in Vovchansk.[15]Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn stated that some Russian soldiers operating in the Vovchansk direction, particularly soldiers of the 153rd Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army [GTA], Moscow Military District [MMD]), are refusing to fight.[16]Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade are reportedly operating within the Vovchansk Aggregate Plant.[17]Ukrainian officials recently reported on June 16 and 23 that Russian forces attempted to withdraw elements of the 83rd VDV Brigade that became combat-ineffective after suffering high losses in the Kharkiv direction.[18]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 Luhansk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces recently marginally advanced southeast of Kupyansk, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kreminna amid continued fighting along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 28 and 29. Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced along a railway line south of Ivanivka (southeast of Kupyansk).[19]Additional geolocated footage published on June 28 and 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Terny (west of Kreminna) and within a forest area southwest of Kreminna.[20]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced roughly one kilometer in depth southeast of Synkivka (northeast of Kupyansk) and seized positions north of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[21]Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from forested areas east of Myasozharivka (west of Svatove) and advanced to the administrative borders of the settlement.[22]Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced near Nevske (southwest of Svatove).[23]A Ukrainian serviceman operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces are using drones to drop chemical munitions, incendiary substances, gases, and poisonous substances on Ukrainian positions in this direction.[24]Russian forces continued assaults southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Kruhlyakivka; southwest of Svatove near Makiivka and Hrekivka; west of Kreminna near Torske; and southwest of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area on June 28 and 29.[25]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in the Siversk direction on June 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian claimed that elements of the Russian 51st Airborne (VDV) Regiment (106th Airborne Division) recently seized Rozdolivka (south of Siversk) and that Russian forces are advancing toward Pereizne (south of Siversk and north of Rozdolivka), although ISW has not observed visual evidence of these claims.[26]Russian forces continued attacks south of Siversk near Spirne and Vyimka on June 29.[27]Elements of the Russian 137th Airborne Regiment (106th VDV Division) are also reportedly operating near Pereizne.[28]

Russian forces recently advanced near Chasiv Yar amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on June 29. Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Russian forces marginally advanced within the Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar).[29]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced in the forest area south of Kalynivka (north of Chasiv Yar).[30]Fighting continued near Chasiv Yar, Kalynivka, and Klishchiivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar) on June 29.[31]Elements of the Russian 98th VDV Division reportedly continue operating near Chasiv Yar.[32]

Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Toretsk direction amid continued Russian ground attacks in the area on June 29. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced up to the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal east of Druzhba (east of Toretsk).[33]The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Shumy (southeast of Toretsk) as of June 29, although Russian and Ukrainian sources began claiming that Russian forces seized the settlement on June 22.[34]Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced east of Pivnichne and Zalizne (both southeast of Toretsk) and advanced up to 2.3 kilometers deep and 1.65 kilometers wide on the outskirts of Pivdenne (southeast of Toretsk).[35]Russian forces continued ground attacks near Toretsk, east of Toretsk near Pivnichne, and southeast of Toretsk near Pivdenne and Niu York.[36]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Avdiivka on June 29, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. Some Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Sokil (northwest of Avdiivka) and advanced to the western outskirts of Yevhenivka (northwest of Avdiivka).[37]Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the outskirts of Sokil.[38]Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces advanced north of Umanske (west of Avdiivka).[39]A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces are using high-speed motorcycles in the Pokrovsk direction (Avdiivka direction) in unsuccessful attempts to bypass Ukrainian defenses.[40]Fighting continued northwest of Avdiivka near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Novoselivka Persha, and Sokil and west of Avdiivka near Yasnobrodivka and Karlivka on June 29.[41]

Russian forces recently advanced west and southwest of Donetsk City amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on June 29. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced within southwestern Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City).[42]Additional geolocated footage published on June 29 showing Ukrainian forces repelling a roughly platoon-sized Russian mechanized assault indicates that Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City).[43]A Ukrainian brigade spokesperson stated on June 28 that Ukrainian forces recently repelled a roughly reinforced company-sized Russian mechanized assault in an unspecified area in the Kurakhove direction (west and southwest of Donetsk City).[44]The brigade spokesperson stated that Russian forces used nine tanks and nine armored vehicles in the assault and that Ukrainian forces destroyed one tank and damaged four others, including some T-90 tanks. Russian sources claimed that Russian forces advanced in eastern Maksymilyanivka (west of Donetsk City).[45]Fighting continued west of Donetsk City within Krasnohorivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Pobieda, Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane on June 29.[46]Elements of the Russian 238th Artillery Brigade (8th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue operating near Maksymilyanivka.[47]

Positional engagements continued in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine on June 29.[48]Elements of the Russian 14th Spetsnaz Brigade (subordinate to the Russian General Staff's Main Intelligence Directorate [GRU]) are reportedly operating in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[49]

Russian Supporting Effort Southern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Positional engagements continued in western Zaporzhia Oblast on June 29. Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Robotyne, Verbove (east of Robotyne), Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne) and Novodanylivka (north of Robotyne) on June 29.[50]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces occupied strongholds near Robotyne.[51]A Russian source claimed that Russian forces are struggling to detect and suppress Ukrainian first-person view (FPV) drones as Ukrainian forces have changed the drones' frequencies.[52]Elements of the Russian 42nd Motorized Rifle Division (58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Robotyne.[53]

Geolocated footage published on June 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian diesel train with FPV drones near Tokmak.[54]

Positional engagements continued in the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky, on June 29.[55]A Russian milblogger claimed that there are small arms battles in the island zone near the Antonivsky railway and road bridges (north of Poyma and Oleshky, respectively).[56]The milblogger claimed that Russian military authorities claimed that Russian forces took complete control of the entire island zone, but Russian frontline soldiers refuted these reports. Elements of the Russian 80th Arctic Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District [LMD]) and the 52nd Airborne (VDV) Artillery Brigade are reportedly operating in the Kherson direction.[57]

Russian officials and milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted an unspecified missile strike against occupied Sevastopol, Crimea on June 29 and that missile fragments fell on private homes.[58]

Russian Air, Missile, and 10ampaign(Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted a limited number of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of June 28 to 29. Ukrainian Air Force Commander Lieutenant General Mykola Oleshchuk reported that Russian forces launched 10 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and that Ukrainian forces shot down all 10 drones over Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Vinnytsia oblasts.[59]The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) posted footage on June 28 purporting to show Russian forces striking a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Velykodolynske, Odesa Oblast with an unspecified type of Iskander missile.[60]

Ukrainian energy enterprises continue to report that previous Russian strikes have significantly constrained Ukraine's energy grid. The CEO of private Ukrainian energy enterprise DTEK, Ildar Saleev, stated on June 29 that previous Russian strikes have taken 90 percent of DTEK's energy generation capacity offline and that DTEK will repair damaged thermal power plants (TPPs) over the course of years.[61]The CEO of Ukrainian private energy enterprise YASNO, Serhii Kovalenko, stated on June 29 that Ukraine will likely face a 30 percent electricity deficit in Winter 2024-2025 and that scheduled emergency power outages could last for weeks in the winter.[62]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Some new Russian military personnel are reportedly receiving insufficient training before deploying to Ukraine. A Russian milblogger claimed that new Russian personnel receive roughly 14 days of training on average before deploying to the frontline.[63]The milblogger noted that new Russian personnel receives four to five days of real training and that the 14 days encompass the time between signing a military contract and arriving at the front in Ukraine.[64]A former Storm-Z instructor agreed with the milblogger's assessment and bemoaned problems with general training.[65]The milblogger also noted that an average Ukrainian soldier appears to receive much more training than the average Russian soldier.[66]The Russian military is currently committing all Russian forces, regardless of their formal designations, to more or less similar operations along the front and continues to mainly leverage mass in infantry and occasional mechanized assaults to make creeping advances instead of relying on highly trained units.[67]This decision has likely lowered training requirements for most new Russian personnel set to fight in Ukraine, although 14 days is still insufficient for generating even limited combat effective personnel. While many new Russian personnel may receive inadequate training, Russian forces likely provide Russian personnel with further training following deployment to Ukraine and are likely attempting to offer better training for select elements.

Russian Technological Adaptations(Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Nothing significant to report.

Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)

ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

ISW is not publishing coverage of activities in Russian-occupied areas today.

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) responded to the US State Department's 2023 International Religious Freedom report on Russia on June 28 and denied the veracity of the report as part of ongoing Russian informational efforts to present Russia as a unified multireligious and multiethnic country.[68]The State Department's 2023 report on religious freedom in Russia and Ukraine details Russian authorities' repression of religious minorities in Russia and occupied Ukraine, which is consistent with ISW's reporting on the issue.[69]

Significant activity in Belarus(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

The Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation reported on June 28 that Belarusian and Russian propagandists are falsely presenting Ukraine as a threat to Belarus.[70]Russian milbloggers claimed on June 29 that Russia must be prepared to defend Belarus against Ukrainian aggression and that Russia could preemptively destroy Kyiv City with glide bombs or other unspecified weapons in order to protect Belarus.[71]Russian forces would have to operate Russian aircraft at the international border or within Ukrainian airspace in order to strike Kyiv City with glide bombs. Belarusian military officials claimed that there have been no provocations along the Ukraine-Belarus border since an alleged drone strike into Belarus by all-Russian pro-Ukrainian forces on June 26 and presented Belarusian forces as well-prepared to address any possible threat from Ukraine.[72]The Belarusian State Border Committee claimed on June 28 that Belarusian forces shot down an alleged drone from the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) near the Ukraine-Belarus border in Gomel Oblast on June 26.[73]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1]https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/29/06/2024/667fd4c59a794736547a8cd3

[2]https://t.me/RKadyrov_95/4879

[3]https://isw.pub/UkrWar06272024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar061624;https://isw.pub/UkrWar040924;https://isw.pub/UkrWar032324;https://isw.pub/UkrWar040424

[4]https://isw.pub/UkrWar041024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar062824;https://isw.pub/UkrWar06272024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar032424;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

[5]https://isw.pub/UkrWar040424;https://isw.pub/UkrWar040224;https://isw.pub/UkrWar032824

[6] https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921

[7]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ;https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919;https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921

[8]https://t.me/dva_majors/46381 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71474 ; https://www.rbc dot ru/politics/29/06/2024/667fd4c59a794736547a8cd3 ; https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921

[9]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71440 ; https://t.me/sashakots/47591 ; https://t.me/epoddubny/20264 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17919 ; https://t.me/MedvedevVesti/17921 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

[10]https://isw.pub/UkrWar032324; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024

[11]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-26-2024;https://www.facebook.com/watch/zelenskyy.official/?ref=embed_video;https://t.me/Koord_shtab/6777; https://www.president.gov dot ua/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-uchasnikiv-nacionalnogo-mo-91873 ; https://suspilne dot media/779707-pid-cas-obminu-polonenimi-z-rf-v-ukrainu-vdalosa-povernuti-dvoh-svasennikiv-zelenskij/ ;https://suspilnedot media/779749-zelenskij-zustrivsa-iz-dzelalom-akogo-rosiani-utrimuvali-u-poloni-z-2021-roku/; https://gur dot gov.ua/content/zavershyvsia-53-i-obmin---z-rosiiskoi-nevoli-vyzvoleni-politychni-brantsi-kremlia-ta-nezakonno-zasudzheni-ukraintsi.html

[12]https://t.me/astrapress/58537;https://t.me/Koord_shtab/6777;https://www.presidentdot gov.ua/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-uchasnikiv-nacionalnogo-mo-91873;https://www.kyivpostdot com/post/35058

[13]https://t.me/Koord_shtab/6777;https://www.president.govdot ua/news/zvernennya-prezidenta-ukrayini-do-uchasnikiv-nacionalnogo-mo-91873

[14]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02XWNFBEPPKsbYa2D7SM3AXkz2ARUvgPjUDDRmMNWjkJZqtuPauFe2tLrKh6ABn7u4l;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0vr8stiyppwMeTLKJSDdo1PLDgHBfvQTKMNDocxqeMpWkkBnqZtXpCokiZs4xWVNul;https://t.me/wargonzo/20774;https://t.me/dva_majors/46364;https://t.me/rybar/61374

[15]https://t.me/dva_majors/46364;https://t.me/rybar/61374;https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71458

[16]https://www.youtube.com/live/hf29n-2E9nk?si=4hQrY7wxbkaDZvHJ;https://armyinform.comdot ua/2024/06/29/poblyzu-vovchanska-rosijski-shturmovyky-vidmovlyayutsya-vykonuvaty-zavdannya/

[17]https://t.me/khornegroup/2203;https://x.com/666_mancer/status/1806753591777984919;https://armyinform.comdot ua/2024/06/29/smertelna-pastka-dlya-rusni-u-vovchansku-dron-z-protytankovoyu-minoyu-strim-iz-pryfrontovogo-mista/

[18]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024

[19]https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5931;https://t.me/ssternenko/30439;https://x.com/blinzka/status/1807006730468925935;https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1806958507989561813

[20]https://t.me/creamy_caprice/5927;https://t.me/BARS011/12120;https://t.me/ombr_63/722;https://x.com/foosint/status/1806762335891013682;https://x.com/foosint/status/1806762339368067098

[21]https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/12271

[22]https://t.me/rybar/61367

[23]https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71446;https://t.me/z_arhiv/27158;https://t.me/boris_rozhin/128350?single

[24]https://armyinform.com dot ua/2024/06/29/na-lymanskomu-napryamku-rosiyany-aktyvno-zastosovuyut-otrujni-gazy/

[25]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PzjBAnkQ4HgYwtYHKKSHzLxN6bEQnGzAQAGkxvo7P1qpEcEhLFcF9WvgyogpCVbQl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02XWNFBEPPKsbYa2D7SM3AXkz2ARUvgPjUDDRmMNWjkJZqtuPauFe2tLrKh6ABn7u4l;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl;https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0vr8stiyppwMeTLKJSDdo1PLDgHBfvQTKMNDocxqeMpWkkBnqZtXpCokiZs4xWVNul ;https://t.me/dva_majors/46364;https://t.me/rybar/61374;https://t.me/RVvoenkor/71446;https://t.me/motopatriot/24371

[26]https://t.me/rybar/61379;https://t.me/motopatriot/24359

[27]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02Q74ZNYXKuMLwxP97qMLw21iCao3vvj7YZE6jCqg4PyG8buN154e6qv3VhTPUzCKhl

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 29, 2024 - Institute for the Study of War

Slowly but steadily this summer, Russian troops are forging through Ukraine's outgunned and undermanned defenses in a relentless onslaught, prompting the West to push for new weapons and strategies to shore up Kyiv.

That, in turn, has brought new threats by President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against the West either directly or indirectly.

The moves by the West to blunt the offensive and the potential Kremlin response could lead to a dangerous escalation as the war drags through its third year one that further raises the peril of a direct confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Russias probing offensive

Russia took advantage of its edge in firepower amid delays in U.S. aid to scale up attacks in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front. Relatively small units are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak spots, potentially setting the stage for a more ambitious push.

Russia's offensive near Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, that began in May and worried Kyivs Western allies has apparently lost momentum after the Ukrainian army bolstered its forces in the area by redeploying troops from other sectors.

Meanwhile, Russia has made incremental but steady advances in the Donetsk region, including around the strategic hilltop town of Chasiv Yar, a gateway to parts of Donetsk still under Ukrainian control. Analysts say the fall of Chasiv Yar would threaten the key military hubs of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Putin declared that Moscow wasnt seeking quick gains and would stick to the current strategy of advancing slowly.

Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said that by stretching Ukrainian forces along a wide front, Russia is overcoming the limitations of its military that lacks the size and training for a major offensive.

The breadth of the strikes has forced Ukraine to spread out its artillery, "expending munitions to break up successive Russian attacks, he said in an analysis. Russias aim is not to achieve a grand breakthrough but rather to convince Ukraine that it can keep up an inexorable advance, kilometer by kilometer, along the front.

Michael Kofman of the Carnegie Endowment said Russia's apparent goal is to maintain pressure and try to stretch out Ukraine's forces. He noted that even though Ukraine managed to stabilize the front line, it had to use reserves intended to be deployed elsewhere.

It will take more and more time to actually regenerate Ukraines combat strength because of that, he said in a recent podcast.

Moscow also has stepped up airstrikes on Ukraines energy facilities and other vital infrastructure with waves of missiles and drones. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the country had lost about 80% of its thermal power and one-third of its hydroelectric power in the strikes.

This will be a growing problem when we talk about the future Ukraines economic viability, Kofman said.

Watling said the shortage of air defenses is giving Ukraine a difficult choice between concentrating them to safeguard critical infrastructure, or protecting troops on the front.

The persistence of Russias long-range strike campaign means that not only is the front being stretched laterally, but it is also being extended in its depth, he said.

The West responds, the Kremlin counters

Washington and some NATO allies have responded to the offensive by allowing Kyiv to use Western weapons for limited strikes inside Russia. The U.S. has allowed Ukraine to use American weapons against military targets in Russia near Kharkiv and elsewhere near the border, but, to Kyiv's dismay, Washington so far hasnt given permission for strikes deeper in Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron and some other Western officials argue that Kyiv has the right to use their equipment to attack military assets anywhere in Russia. There also has been talk by Macron and the leaders of NATO's Baltic members but not the U.S. of deploying troops to Ukraine.

Putin warns that this would be a major escalation, and he threatened to retaliate by providing weapons to Western adversaries elsewhere in the world.

He reinforced that argument by signing a mutual defense pact with North Korea in June and holding the door open for arms supplies to Pyongyang.

He declared that just as the West says Ukraine can decide how to use Western weapons, Moscow could provide arms to North Korea and similarly say that we supply something to somebody but have no control over what happens afterward an apparent hint at Pyongyangs role as arms trader.

Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy head of Russias Security Council, noted Moscow could arm anyone who considers the U.S. and its allies their enemies, regardless of their political beliefs and international recognition.

Another threat of escalation followed a Ukrainian attack with U.S.-made ATACMS missiles that killed four and injured over 150 in Sevastopol on the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. Russia's Defense Ministry warned it could take unspecified measures against U.S. drones over the Black Sea that provide intelligence to Ukraine.

The nuclear threat and Putin's long game

Putin said it was wrong for NATO to assume that Russia won't use its nuclear arsenal, reaffirming it will use all means if its sovereignty and territorial integrity are threatened.

He also warned that Moscow was pondering possible changes to its doctrine that specifies when it resorts to nuclear weapons.

Underscoring that, Russia held military drills with battlefield nuclear weapons involving Belarus. Last year, Moscow deployed some of those weapons to Belarus to try to discourage Western military support for Ukraine.

A military defeat in Ukraine, Putin said, would deal a deadly blow to Russian statehood, and he vowed to press his goals to the end.

He declared that for Russia to halt the fighting, Ukraine must withdraw its troops from the four regions that Moscow annexed in 2022, an idea Kyiv and its allies dismissed. He also said Ukraine must abandon its bid to join NATO.

Hawkish Russian commentators criticized Putin for failing to respond forcefully to NATO ramping up support for Kyiv and allowing the West to continuously push back Russias red lines. Some argued that if the damage grows from Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia with longer-range Western missiles, Moscow should hit NATO assets.

Vasily Kashin, a Moscow-based defense analyst, noted that while Ukraine already had used Western weapons to inflict limited damage, Putin will have to do something if there are cruise missile strikes deep inside Russian territory resulting in significant casualties.

Russia could respond by targeting Western drones or U.S. spy satellites, or also strike some NATO countries assets in overseas territories to minimize triggering an all-out conflict with the alliance, Kashin said.

Other Russian commentators argued, however, that such action fraught with triggering a direct conflict with NATO isnt in Moscows interests.

Moscow-based security analyst Sergei Poletaev said the Kremlin aims to steadily drain Ukrainian resources to force Kyiv into accepting a peace deal on Russia's terms.

While nothing spectacular is happening on the front line, he said, "constant dropping wears away a stone.

Moscows military advantage allows it to maintain pressure along the entire front line and make new advances while waiting for Ukraine to break down, he said in a commentary

Lacking the resources for a major offensive, the Kremlin has opted for slow advances, aiming to keep pressure on Ukraine while warding off the West from direct involvement in hostilities, Poletaev said.

We must walk the razor's edge between our victory and a nuclear war, he said.

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Russia presses its offensive in Ukraine and issues new threats as the West tries to blunt the push - Yahoo! Voices

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) Russian attacks across eastern Ukraine killed at least 11 people Saturday, while rescuers in the city of Dnipro dug through rubble after a Russian strike ripped through a nine-story residential building, leaving one dead, officials said.

The attacks came as Russia continues to stretch out Ukrainian forces in several areas along the 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front. Moscow has stepped up airstrikes in a bid to drain Ukraines resources, often targeting energy facilities and other vital infrastructure.

The shelling of the front-line village of Niu-York in the Donetsk region also wounded five people, Gov. Vadym Filashkin said. He said that Russian forces had shelled populated areas 13 times over the past 24 hours.

A further seven people were killed Saturday afternoon in Russian shelling on the town of Vilniansk, including two children, Gov. Ivan Fedorov said. Ten other people were wounded, while infrastructure was also damaged, he wrote on social media.

Meanwhile, in Dnipro, at least one person died and 12 were wounded, including a 7-month-old girl, after a Russian strike destroyed the top four floors of the apartment building on Friday evening, regional head Serhii Lysak said. Rescuers confirmed that several residents remained missing.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the Dnipro attack was a reminder to Ukraines allies that the country needed more air defense systems. The Ukrainian air force said Saturday that it had downed 10 Russian drones overnight.

This is why we constantly remind all of our partners: only a sufficient amount of high-quality air defense systems, only a sufficient amount of determination from the world at large can stop Russian terror, he said.

Russian officials also reported Ukrainian attacks, with a drone strike killing five people in Russias Kursk region, local officials said Saturday.

A Ukrainian drone strike killed at least five people in Russias Kursk region, local officials said Saturday. Two children were among the victims of the attack in the village of Gorodishche on the Russian-Ukrainian border, Gov. Alexey Smirnov said on social media.

In its morning statement, the Russian Defense Ministry said that six Ukrainian drones had been shot down overnight over the countrys Tver, Bryansk and Belgorod regions, as well as over the Crimean Peninsula, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014. It didn't give information on the reported strike in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian government also responded Saturday to a statement from the Belarusian military saying it had increased its forces along Ukraines northern border in response to what it described as security threats.

The announcement came after Belarus border agency claimed its troops downed a Ukrainian drone that had flown across the border to gather intelligence.

Kyiv denied the accusations, which it described as Russian propaganda.

The Russians task is simple to draw more of our forces (to the Belarusian border), Ukraines Center for Countering Disinformation said in a statement. Any information about our activity in the border area is a lie.

Belarus authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, has close ties with Russia and allowed Moscow to use his countrys territory to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

___

Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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12 killed in Russian attacks on Ukraine. Rescue work continues at destroyed apartment building - Yahoo! Voices

(Reuters) -Russian forces attacked Ukraine's two largest cities on Sunday, with missile fragments falling on a suburban Kyiv apartment building and a guided bomb killing one person in Kharkiv.

More than 28 months into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Russian forces maintain regular attacks on Ukrainian cities as well as on energy infrastructure.

Attacks on Kyiv are less frequent than other cities, although the capital endured a series of assaults in March. Kharkiv has come under regular attack, but military analysts say the frequency has dipped since the United States authorised Ukrainian use of its weapons on certain Russian targets.

In Kyiv's Obolon suburb, the local military administration said falling fragments from a Russian missile started a fire and damaged balconies on a 14-storey apartment building on Sunday.

Emergency services, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said five female residents were treated for stress, and Mayor Vitali Klitschko said 10 residents had been evacuated.

Emergency services posted a picture online showing at least four blackened balconies.

The head of the military administration of Kyiv region said missile fragments had also fallen outside the capital, causing injuries and damage, though no details were provided.

Russian forces were prevented from advancing on Kyiv in the early weeks of the February 2022 invasion and were redeployed along the 1,000-km (600-mile) front line in the east.

In Kharkiv, which never fell into Russian hands in the early stages of the war, a guided bomb started a fire and killed a delivery service driver outside a depot on Sunday.

Regional Governor Oleh Synehubov said nine people were injured, including an 8-month-old infant. Pictures posted online showed the depot and trucks outside it badly damaged.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in a post on Telegram, said Russia had used more than 800 guided bombs on Ukrainian targets in the past week. He issued a fresh plea in his nightly video address for better weapons systems.

"The sooner the world helps us deal with the Russian combat aircraft launching these bombs, the sooner we can strike - justifiably strike Russian military infrastructure...and the closer we will be to peace," he said.

(Reporting by Ron Popeski and Bogdan Kochubey; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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Russia attacks Ukraine's two largest cities, Kyiv and Kharkiv - Yahoo! Voices

DONETSK REGION, Ukraine (AP) Drone footage from Ukraines military released Sunday has shown what appears to be bodies in a civilian area in the embattled eastern town of Toretsk, which has come under heavy Russian bombardment in recent days.

The attacks in the war-torn Donetsk region have prompted a scaled-up evacuation effort by Ukrainian rescue services. Local officials said that powerful Russian glide bombs have also been used in the town, the latest eastern front flash point as Russian attacks continue to put stretched Ukrainian front-line units on the defensive.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday that Russia had dropped more than 800 glide bombs in Ukraine in the past week alone.

Ukraine needs the necessary means to destroy the carriers of these bombs, including Russian combat aircraft, wherever they are. This step is essential, he wrote in an online post.

Glide bombs are heavy Soviet-era bombs fitted with precision guidance systems and launched from aircraft flying out of range of air defenses. The bombs weigh more than a ton and blast targets to smithereens, leaving a huge crater.

Police rescuers in Toretsk helped older residents out of their homes, carrying one woman out of her bed and onto a stretcher.

Its a terrible situation, because for three days we could not evacuate, Oksana Zharko, 48, told The Associated Press while leaving the town in a police van with family members and a cat in a plastic carrier box.

Yesterday there was an attack and our house was destroyed very strong, there are no walls left. Everyone is stressed, emotional, in tears. Its very scary.

Russian attacks in recent weeks have focused on the town of Chasiv Yar farther north, as Ukrainian commanders in the area say their resources remain stretched, thanks largely to a monthslong gap in military assistance from the United States.

Ukraine is still struggling to stabilize parts of its front line after desperately needed military assistance was approved by the United States in April.

Zelenskyy called on countries assisting Ukraine to further relax restrictions on using Western weapons to strike military targets inside Russia.

Clear decisions are needed to help protect our people, he said. Long-range strikes and modern air defense are the foundation for stopping the daily Russian terror. I thank all our partners who understand this.

Hours after Zelenskyy spoke, Ukrainian officials said Russian glide bombs had struck near a postal warehouse in Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city in the northeast, killing an employee and injuring nine people including an 8-month-old baby.

According to a statement by Nova Poshta, the private postal and courier company that operates the site, the strike set at least seven delivery trucks ablaze, while damaging at least three others and the warehouse itself. One driver died as a result.

As many as nine people remained trapped under burning wreckage, and rescue teams were combing the site on Sunday evening, regional Gov. Oleh Syniehubov said on Telegram.

Less than a day earlier, Russian missiles slammed into a town in southern Ukraine, killing seven civilians, including children, and wounding dozens, local authorities reported.

Ukrainian officials published photos of bodies stretched out under picnic blankets in a park in Vilniansk, and deep craters in the blackened earth next to the charred, twisted remains of a building.

At least 38 people were wounded in Saturday evening's attack, authorities said, and declared a day of mourning on Sunday. Vilniansk is in the Zaporizhzhia region, less than 30 kilometers (20 miles) from the local capital and north of the front lines, as Russian forces continue to occupy part of the province.

Russia-appointed officials in Donetsk, which is partially occupied and illegally annexed by Moscow, said that Ukrainian shelling on Sunday wounded a 4-year-old boy and a 15-year-old girl. According to Russias Emergencies Ministry, four of its staff also came under shelling Sunday as they attempted to put out a fire in the Kremlin-occupied local capital, also called Donetsk.

The Russian Defense Ministry on Sunday reported its forces overnight shot down three dozen Ukrainian drones over six regions in Russias southwest. It later said that a total of 72 were downed on Saturday and during the night.

Debris from one drone fell on a village in the Kursk region, blowing out windows and damaging roofs and fences, according to a Telegram post by regional Gov. Aleksey Smirnov.

___

Associated Press writer Joanna Kozlowska in London contributed to this report.

___

Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine at https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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Zelenskyy appeals to West to relax targeting limits for Ukraine as glide bombs hammer front line - Yahoo! Voices

UNITED NATIONS (AP) The head of a research organization that has been tracing weapons used in attacks in Ukraine since 2018 told the United Nations Security Council on Friday it has irrefutably established that ballistic missile remnants found in Ukraine came from North Korea.

The United States and its Western allies clashed with Russia and North Korea at the meeting, saying both countries violated a U.N. embargo on arms exports from the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea, the countrys official name. Russia dismissed the baseless accusations, and the DPRK dismissed the meeting as an extremely brazen act to discuss someones alleged 'weapon transfers.

Jonah Leff, executive director of Conflict Armament Research, gave the council a detailed analysis of the remnants of the missile that struck Ukraines second-largest city, Kharkiv, on Jan. 2.

He said the organization documented the missiles rocket motor, its tail section and almost 300 components manufactured by 26 companies from eight countries and territories, and it determined the missile was either a KN-23 or KN-24 manufactured in 2023 in the DPRK.

The organization reached its conclusion based on the missiles unique characteristics its diameter, distinct jet vane actuators that direct the missiles thrust and trajectory, the pattern around the igniter, the presence of Korean characters on some rocket components, and other marks and components dating back to 2023, he said.

Following the initial documentation, our teams inspected three additional identical DPRK missiles that struck Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia earlier this year, Leff said. They also observed additional conventional weapons, including an artillery rocket produced in 1977, that had been seized on the front lines and had not been observed on the battlefield previously in Ukraine that were manufactured by the DPRK, and might have been part of a recent larger consignment of rockets.

The council discussed illegal arms transfers from North Korea at the request of France, Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom and the United States.

The meeting followed Russias March 28 veto that ended the monitoring of sanctions against North Korea over its expanding nuclear program by a U.N. panel of experts. The U.S. and its European and Asian allies accused Moscow of seeking to avoid scrutiny as it allegedly violates sanctions to buy weapons from Pyongyang for its war in Ukraine.

U.N. disarmament chief Izumi Nakamitsu told the council Friday that before its mandate expired, the panel of experts was reviewing a report from Ukraine on missile debris it recovered following information about short-range ballistic missiles manufactured in the DPRK and used by Russian armed forces in Ukraine.

While the mandate of the experts, which had been extended since 2009 with Russias support, was terminated, Nakamitsu said it is important to note that the Security Council committee responsible for monitoring the implementation of sanctions against the DPRK continues its work and will oversee the implementation of the sanctions regime.

U.S. deputy ambassador Robert Wood called Leffs presentation with its many technical details quite compelling, and told the council that while Russia may have ended the panels monitoring with Chinas tacit support, the briefing showed that Moscow and Beijing cannot prevent the public from learning about the unlawful arms transfers occurring between the DPRK and Russia.

He said the independent findings by Leffs research organization corroborate open-source reports and analyses. And he said that, in addition to the dozens of missiles Russia has transferred from the DPRK, it has also unlawfully transferred over 11,000 containers of munitions.

As a permanent member of the Security Council, Russia has a responsibility to uphold and strengthen international peace and security, Wood said. Yet, Russia is launching ballistic missiles, which it unlawfully procured from the DPRK, against the Ukrainian people.

Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia accused the meeting's Western sponsors of attempting to use the Security Council to trot out an anti-Russian and anti-North Korean narrative and to disseminate baseless accusations in order to detract attention from their own destructive actions which foment escalation in the region.

He called the claims that Russia is using DPRK missiles in Ukraine absolutely false, questioning the professionalism and expertise of those who examined the wreckage in Ukraine.

Nebenzia accused the United States of constantly stepping up the militarization of the Asia-Pacific region and said Washingtons policy of extended deterrence on Russias eastern border poses a real threat not just for the DPRK but also for our country.

He said the purpose of the June 19 strategic partnership agreement signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is to play a stabilizing role in northeast Asia amidst an unprecedented escalation of tensions. As for Article 4 of the agreement, providing for the delivery of mutual military assistance if either country is subject to an armed attack, he said this should not arouse national security-related concerns for countries that dont plan to attack the DPRK.

North Korean Ambassador Kim Song called the United States the worlds biggest arms exporter, and accused the Western countries that called the council meeting of being the main culprits of disturbing global peace. They have caused tragic bloodshed by extensive shipment of weapons " and have cast a cloud of war in every corner of the world.

Song detailed U.S. arms shipments to South Korea and Japan and accused the U.S. and its followers of trying to obstruct the development of DPRK-Russia relations. He defended those relations as completely of a peace-loving and defensive nature.

China's deputy U.N. ambassador, Geng Shuang, warned that peace and security in all of northeast Asia will be affected if there is more chaos on the Korean peninsula.

He called on all parties to be rational and pragmatic and work together to cool down the situation.

China will play a constructive role to realize long-term peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, Geng said, and he called on the United States to end its pressure campaign against the DPRK and the myth of deterrence, and demonstrate its sincerity in holding an unconditional dialogue through concrete action.

U.S. envoy Wood retorted: If, indeed, China is so concerned about the security situation on the Korean peninsula, then it needs to use its influence with the DPRK to persuade it from undermining regional and global security.

It should also use its influence that it has with Russia through its new 'No Limits partnership to end this increasingly dangerous military cooperation between DPRK and Russia, he said.

Excerpt from:

Research expert tells UN it has 'irrefutably' established missile debris in Ukraine is North Korean - Yahoo! Voices

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on his country's Western supporters to give the Ukrainian military a free hand to strike back at Russia, given the increasing number of Russian airstrikes on his country.

"The sooner the world helps us to deal with the Russian warplanes dropping these bombs, the sooner we can attack the Russian military infrastructure, the Russian military airfields, the closer we are to peace," Zelensky said in his regular evening video address on Sunday.

The Ukrainian military has long been demanding permission from the West to attack Russian bases and airbases far behind the front line with heavy weapons.

Until now, Ukraine has only been allowed to use the weapons and ammunition supplied by the West near the front and in the border area with Russia.

For attacks in the Russian hinterland, Ukraine has had to rely on domestically produced drones, which are not as effective as more advanced foreign-supplied missiles or cruise missiles.

Zelensky calls for more air defence

Earlier, Zelensky has complained about ongoing Russian bombing and once again appealed to the West for more help with air defence.

In the past week alone, Russia has dropped 800 glide bombs over Ukraine, Zelensky announced in Kiev on Sunday. He also published a video of the heavy destruction and fires in the Kherson, Dnipro, Odessa and Zaporizhzhya regions, among others.

"Ukraine needs more air defence systems. We need strong help from our partners," said Zelensky.

Ukraine also needs the means to shoot down the Russian fighter bombers, he said.

On Saturday, seven people were killed in an attack on the city of Vilniansk in the Zaporizhzhya region. According to official figures from Sunday, more than 40 people were injured. Lower figures had initially been reported the previous day.

On Sunday, at least one person was killed in a Russian airstrike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv on Sunday and a further eight people, including an eight-month-old baby, were seriously injured in the attack, according to Mayor Oleh Terekhov.

The glide bomb exploded in the middle of the city centre. The military administrator of Kharkiv, Oleh Synjehubov, specified that a post office had been hit in the attack.

The West is supporting Ukraine in its defence campaign against the Russian invasion, which has been going on for more than two years. The country has repeatedly requested more US Patriot air-defence systems to better protect its cities from Russian airstrikes.

Incident on Ukraine's border with Hungary

On Ukraine's western border with Hungary, a border guard fatally shot one man and injured another after they tried to attack with a machete on Saturday evening, according to a report from the news website Ukrainska Pravda, citing border guards and authorities.

The incident took place in the western Ukrainian region of Chernivtsi. Authorities did not immediately disclose details about the suspected attackers or any information around what may have led to the attack.

There have been clashes along the border due to efforts by guards to enforce rules forbidding men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country outside of exceptional circumstances.

In a separate incident, 17 men travelling in a minibus were apprehended along the border with Hungary while allegedly trying to leave Ukraine illegally, the border guards announced

The men came from different regions of Ukraine and were trying to flee to Hungary. Authorities said an initial investigation revealed that the men were supposed to pay between $3,000 and $12,000 to leave the country.

Russian occupiers seize Ukrainian property

The occupying forces in the Russian-annexed Luhansk region in eastern Ukraine are preparing to transfer residential property to military personnel, the Centre of National Resistance in Kiev said on Sunday.

Flats would not only be handed over to Moscow's occupying forces but also to migrants from Central Asia, the centre said.

The internationally unrecognized leadership in Luhansk is preparing corresponding laws. Many Ukrainians have fled the occupied territories and left their property behind.

Immigrants from Central Asia are mainly used as cheap labour by Russia - not least for the reconstruction of towns and villages destroyed by the war.

According to a statement from the centre, the occupying forces are confiscating homes abandoned during the war and transferring them to homeless people.

Civilians are also being forcibly relocated from areas close to the front. Russian soldiers would then be housed in the civilian buildings, it said.

Russian state employees in Luhansk are being given flats abandoned by Ukrainians in order to carry out administrative tasks in the occupied territory, the centre said. Such flats and houses are offered for sale at low prices.

"The Kremlin is promoting such resettlements because it wants to completely Russify the occupied territories," the statement said.

The occupiers rejected recognizing the documents on residential property issued in accordance with Ukrainian law. Instead, they demanded that ownership be formalized in accordance with Russian laws. Homeowners would thus be forced to first apply for a Russian passport and then go through Russian legal procedures.

The centre emphasized that the Russian approach was illegal and recommended that Ukrainian citizens keep original documents or certified copies of certificates of ownership. The Ukrainian leadership has repeatedly announced its intention to recapture the annexed territories.

Ukrainian citizens have also been expropriated on the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Many homes, including one belonging to the family of President Volodymyr Zelensky, were seized by the Russian state.

See the original post:

Zelensky urges supporters to give Ukraine free hand to strike Russia - Yahoo! Voices

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2024

Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan

June 28, 2024, 8pm ET

Clickhereto see ISWs interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Clickhereto see ISWs 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Clickhereto access ISWs archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:30pm ET on June 28. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the June 29 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin directed on June 28 the production and deployment of nuclear-capable short- and intermediate-range missiles following the American withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty in 2019, likely as part of the Kremlin's ongoing reflexive control campaign to influence Western decision making in Russia's favor.[1]Putin attended a Russian Security Council meeting in which he claimed that Russia had vowed to uphold the INF's provisions against producing or deploying intermediate-range ground-based missiles until the United States violated these provisions and that Russia must now also produce and deploy such systems.[2]The United States suspended participation in the INF on February 1, 2019, and withdrew from the treaty on August 2, 2019, due to Russian violations of the treaty with its development, testing, and deployment of intermediate-range 9M729 (SSC-8) missiles, and Russia suspended its participation in the INF in response on February 2, 2019.[3]Putin specifically cited two 2024 US bilateral military exercises; one with the Philippines in Northern Luzon, Philippines on April 11 and a second with Denmark near Bornholm Island, Denmark on May 3-5. Both of these bilateral US exercises involved a Typhon Medium Range Capability (MRC) launcher, which US readouts specified can launch SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles.[4]The SM-6 missiles have a maximum range of 370 kilometers, while the Tomahawks have a maximum range of about 2,500 kilometers.[5]US officials did not specify which missiles, if any, may have been involved in either exercise.

Putin is more likely using these exercises as a scapegoat for his broader reflexive control campaign aimed at discouraging Western military assistance to Ukraine. These US and partner exercises involved launchers capable of launching missiles that could pose variable threats to Russia from the exercise locations. Bornholm Island is roughly 300 kilometers from the westernmost shore of Kaliningrad Oblast and roughly 1,400 kilometers from Moscow. The US Sixth Fleet specified that the Bornholm Island exercise involved transporting the Typhon launcher from land to shore as part of convoy protection rehearsals, suggesting that these exercises likely involved shorter-range weapons.[6]The Russian border area closest to the Philippines the area southwest of Vladivostok is roughly 2,800 kilometers from Northern Luzon, out of range of the Tomahawk missiles. Putin's June 27 condemnation follows the People's Republic of China (PRC) delayed condemnation of the US exercise in Northern Luzon on May 30. Putin likely invoked the Philippines exercise in part to posture favorably to the PRC, North Korea, and Vietnam as he attempts to create a coalition of states in support of a new "Eurasian security architecture."[7]The Kremlin has invoked the fear of a nuclear confrontation between Russia and the West throughout its full-scale invasion to push the West to self-deter from providing Ukraine the weapons it needs to sustain its defense against Russian forces, and the Kremlin notably employs this effort during key moments in Western political discussions about further military assistance to Ukraine.[8]

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck an oil depot in Russia on June 28 and reportedly struck a microelectronics plant and a military unit on the night of June 27 to 28.Tambov Oblast Governor Maksim Yegorov claimed that a drone struck an oil depot in Michurinsky Raion and started a fire on the morning of June 28.[9]Russian opposition outletAstrastated that the drone hit the Transnefteprodukt "Nikolskoe" linear production and dispatch station in Novonikolskoe.[10]Astraalso reported that Ukrainian forces struck an unspecified military unit in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast and the "Kremniy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk City - one of the largest microelectronics manufacturers in Russia that makes components for military equipment - on the night of June 27 to 28.[11]Bryansk Oblast Governor Alexander Bogomaz claimed that Russian forces suppressed a Ukrainian drone with electronic warfare (EW) over Bryansk City and that drone debris damaged an administrative building.[12]The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed 12 drones over Bryansk Oblast but did not mention any drone strikes against Tambov Oblast.[13]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces Center for Strategic Communications (StratCom) reported on June 28 that Ukrainian forces have damaged or destroyed more than 30 Russian military aircraft in the first six months of 2024, although ISW cannot confirm this report fully.Ukrainian StratCom stated that Ukrainian forces destroyed or damaged nine Su-25 aircraft, one Su-57 aircraft, two MiG-31 aircraft, roughly 13 Su-34 aircraft, two Su-35 aircraft, two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft, one Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft, and one Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in the first six months of 2024.[14]Ukrainian StratCom stated that most of the strikes against the Russian aircraft occurred in occupied Ukraine except for a handful of strikes over the Sea of Azov and within Russia.[15]Ukrainian StratCom did not specify what portion of these Ukrainian strikes were air defense interceptions of Russian aircraft in flight and what percentage were strikes against Russian aircraft at airfields. Russian officials acknowledged that Ukrainian forces downed an A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in February 2024 after Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down another A-50 aircraft and Il-22M11 airborne command post aircraft in January 2024.[16]Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian strikes damaged at least one Russian Su-57 in June 2024, and footage indicates that Ukrainian forces downed a Russian Tu-22M3 strategic bomber in mid-April.[17]Satellite imagery indicates that Ukrainian forces destroyed two MiG-31 aircraft in occupied Crimea in an ATACMS strike in May 2024.[18]Ukrainian officials reported the downing of numerous Su-34 aircraft in February and March 2024, although ISW cannot verify these reports or Ukrainian StratCom's figures concerning Su-34, Su-35, and Su-25 aircraft.[19]The downing of Russian aircraft, especially critical aircraft like the A-50 and Il-22, has previously temporarily constrained Russian aviation activities over occupied Ukraine, but Ukrainian forces have yet to be able to significantly attempt to contest the air domain.[20]Ukrainian officials have routinely highlighted a need for additional air defense assets and advanced fighter aircraft in order to significantly contest the air domain and pursue air parity with Russian forces.[21]Russian forces have exploited continued constraints on Ukraine's air defense umbrella to field Russian tactical aircraft regularly along the frontline that conduct widespread glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian positions in support of ongoing Russian offensive operations.[22]

Many Russian elites have reportedly shifted from criticizing Russia's war effort in Ukraine to supporting it because they assess that Russia is prevailing.Russian opposition journalist and founder of Russian opposition television channelTV RainMikhail Zygar reported in a June 28Foreign Affairsarticle that many Russian elites who were opposed to the war in 2022 started to support the war in 2023 because they "believe Russia is prevailing [in the war]" given Russia's slow but steady battlefield gains, a persisting Ukrainian munitions disadvantage, and perceived "waning" Western security assistance to Ukraine.[23]One unspecified Russian oligarch who previously criticized the war reportedly told Zygar that Russia must win the war otherwise "they won't allow us to live... and Russia would collapse." Zygar reported that Russian elites have even started speculating about war outcomes that would constitute a Russian victory. ISW cannot independently verify any of Zygar's reports. Zygar's statements are consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian elites came to heel behind Russian President Vladimir Putin in support of the war following intensified crackdowns against the Russian elite after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Zygar's report that Russian elites are now assessing that Russia can prevail on the battlefield and are even discussing a Russian victory indicates that elites may also be supporting Putin's stated theory of victory, which posits that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent operationally significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, and eventually win a war of attrition.[24]

Russian officials called for harsher punishments in Russia's criminal system, likely in response to the recent terrorist attacks in Dagestan.Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin stated at the International Youth Legal Forum in St. Petersburg on June 28 that Russia should consider lifting the moratorium on the death penalty for certain, unspecified cases.[25]Head of the Russian Constitutional Court Valery Zorkin stated on June 26 that the Constitutional Court considers the return of the death penalty to be inadmissible within the framework of the current constitution, but Bastrykin suggested on June 28 that a presidential decree may be able to lift the moratorium without changing the constitution.[26]Bastrykin claimed that the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack demonstrates the need for the return to the death penalty and complained that a defendant could receive the death penalty for the murder of at least two to three people during the Soviet Union, but the terrorists that conducted the Crocus City Hall attack that killed over 100 people will receive a maximum sentence of life imprisonment.[27]Russian Justice Minister Konstantin Chuychenko stated on June 28 that the Ministry of Justice recently prepared a bill that would designate forced labor as the main punishment for more than 65 crimes.[28]Chuychenko claimed that forced labor is a "more humane" form of punishment than imprisonment and reduces recidivism.[29]Bastrykin claimed on June 27 that migrant crime is spreading in Russia and called for stricter migration policies, prompting widescale xenophobic support for Bastrykin's statements from Russia's ultranationalist milbloggers.[30]Other Russian officials called for the return of the death penalty in the days following the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack, and Bastrykin is likely renewing these appeals in response to the June 23 terrorist attacks in Dagestan.

Russia may be creating a shadow fleet to transport Russian liquified natural gas (LNG) and circumvent Western sanctions.Bloombergreported on June 27 that there is evidence that Russia is creating a shadow fleet to transport Russian LNG in similar ways to how Russia created a shadow fleet to avoid the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil.[31]Bloombergreported that a little-known company in Dubai has acquired at least eight vessels in the past three months and that Russia has reportedly already granted four of these vessels permission to traverse Russian Arctic waters in Summer 2024. At least three of the eight vessels reportedly list their insurers as "unknown," a common tactic tankers carrying Russian crude oil have used to skirt the G7 price cap.Bloombergnoted that it cannot independently connect these vessels to major Russian entities directly. The latest EU sanctions package from June 24 forbids EU entities from providing reloading services of Russian LNG in EU territory for transshipment operations to third countries.[32]

Key Takeaways:

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 Kharkiv Oblast(Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City)

Ukrainian forces recently recaptured positions in northern Kharkiv Oblast amid continued fighting in the area on June 28. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced within central Vovchansk (northeast of Kharkiv City) along Heoriv Chornobylya Street.[33]A Ukrainian drone battalion commander operating in the Kharkiv direction reported on June 28 that the situation in northern Kharkiv Oblast has stabilized and that Russian forces have not made any significant progress since roughly June 12.[34]The drone battalion commander stated that Russian forces are using both "Storm" assault units staffed with poorly trained personnel and regular Russian units in the Kharkiv direction. The drone battalion commander also reported that Russian forces are quickly replenishing their losses in the area despite suffering heavy losses. Fighting continued near and within Vovchansk on June 28.[35]Elements of the Russian engineering "Phoenix" Battalion are reportedly attempting to remotely mine areas in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[36]

A Ukrainian source claimed on June 26 that Russian forces may have lost almost the entire 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade in the Kharkiv direction due to significant losses and personnel refusing to fight, although ISW has not observed any evidence of this claim and assesses it to be exaggerated.[37]Ukrainian officials recently reported on June 16 and 23 that Russian forces attempted to withdraw elements of the 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade that became combat-ineffective after suffering high losses in the Kharkiv direction.[38]ISW observed reports on June 11 that elements of the Russian 83rd VDV Brigade were operating near Chasiv Yar.[39]Elements of the Russian 83rd VDV Brigade in the Kharkiv direction likely suffered significant losses that rendered them combat-ineffective, but the brigade is unlikely to have been completely destroyed, particularly since it remains unclear how large a portion of the 83rd VDV Brigade the Russians transferred from the Chasiv Yar area to the Vovchansk direction.

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 Luhansk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Kreminna and east of Terny (west of Kreminna).[40]Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on June 28 that Ukrainian forces advanced about 1.5 kilometers near Terny and Yampolivka (both west of Kreminna) while Russian forces were focused on offensive operations in the direction of Borova (west of Svatove).[41] Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 31st and 37th motorized rifle regiments and 19th Tank Regiment (all of 67th Motorized Rifle Division, 25th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Central Military District [CMD]), the 164th Motorized Rifle Brigade (25th CAA), and the 488th and 238th motorized rifle regiments (both of the 144th Motorized Rifle Division, 20th CAA, Moscow Military District [MMD]) were likely regrouping in preparation for resumed offensive operations near Terny and Yampolivka when Ukrainian forces counterattacked and regained lost positions.

Russian forces reportedly advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 28, but there were no confirmed Russian advances in this area. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Stepova Novoselivka (southeast of Kupyansk) and in the Serebryanske forest area (southwest of Kreminna), but ISW has not observed confirmation of these claims.[42]Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast of Kupyansk near Synkivka; east of Kupyansk near Petropavlivka; southeast of Kupyansk near Stepova Novoselivka, Stelmakhivka, and Pishchane; northwest of Svatove near Kruhlyakivka; west of Svatove near Andriivka; southwest of Svatove near Nevske, Makiivka, and Kopanky; northwest of Kreminna near Hrekivka; west of Kreminna near Torske and Terny; and southwest of Kreminna near the Serebryanske forest area on June 27 and 28.[43]Elements of the Chechen "Shrama" detachment of the 204th "Akhmat" Spetsnaz Regiment are reportedly operating near Kreminna.[44]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 Donetsk Oblast(Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russias proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces conducted intensified offensive operations in the Siversk direction on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Rozdolivka (south of Siversk) as of June 28, following Russian milblogger claims on June 27 that Russian forces seized the settlement.[45]A Russian milblogger claimed on June 28 that elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division seized Rozdolivka on June 26, although other milbloggers claimed that fighting continued within the settlement on June 27 and 28.[46]ISW has not yet observed confirmation that Russian forces seized Rozdolivka, however. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted notably intensified offensive operations in the Siversk direction on June 28.[47]Russian forces attacked northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka; east of Siversk near Verkhnokamyanske; southeast of Siversk near Spirne, Ivano-Darivka, and Vyimka; and south of Siversk near Rozdolivka on June 27 and 28.[48]

Russian forces recently advanced in easternmost Chasiv Yar, indicating that Russian forces continue to operate within the town. Geolocated footage published on June 28 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced westward to the concrete plant in Kanal Microraion (easternmost Chasiv Yar).[49]Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn made multiple statements on June 27 that Ukrainian forces either pushed all Russian forces from Kanal Microraion or pushed most Russian forces from Kanal Microraion but that limited, isolated Russian groups remain in the microraion.[50]Voloshyn's statements and continued geolocated footage of Russian forces operating further within Kanal Microraion suggest that small Russian infantry groups can enter and advance within the microraion but likely struggle to establish enduring positions. ISW has not yet observed visual evidence of Ukrainian forces regaining positions in eastern Kanal Microraion or other indicators that Ukrainian forces have managed to push Russian forces completely out of easternmost Chasiv Yar. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces established a foothold within central Kalynivka (north of Chasiv Yar) as of June 27.[51]Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, Novyi and Kanal microraions (eastern Chasiv Yar), Ivanivske (east of Chasiv Yar), and Klishchiivka (southeast of Chasiv Yar) on June 27 and 28.[52]Elements of the Russian 98th VDV Division's 217th and 331st VDV regiments, the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade (14th Army Corps, Leningrad Military District [LMD]), the 102nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division, 8th Combined Arms [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]), and the "Hispaniola" Volunteer Brigade (Russian Volunteer Corps) are reportedly operating near eastern Chasiv Yar.[53]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on June 28 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces established a foothold on the outskirts of Niu York (south of Toretsk) and made gains near Zalizne and Pivdenne (both southeast of Toretsk) on June 28.[54]A Russian milblogger claimed on June 27 that Russian forces are 1.5 kilometers from Toretsk, although ISW currently assesses that Russian forces are over three kilometers from the town.[55]Russian forces also continued assaults near Toretsk and east of Toretsk near Druzhba and Pivnichne on June 27 and 28.[56]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Avdiivka on June 28 but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces advanced near the pond on the northwestern outskirts of Novooleksandrivka (northwest of Avdiivka) and are pushing Ukrainian forces towards Vozdvyzhenka (northwest of Avdiivka).[57]Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces made marginal gains within and near Sokil (northwest of Avdiivka) and near Yasnobrodivka (west of Avdiivka).[58]Russian forces continued offensive operations northwest of Avdiivka near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Prohres, Yevhenivka, and Novoselivka Persha; west of Avdiivka near Umanske and Yasnobrodivka; and southwest of Avdiivka near Karlivka on June 27 and 28.[59]Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that elements of the Russian 239th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, 41st CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are operating near Yasnobrodivka, that elements of the 15th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD) are operating near Novoselivka Persha, and that Russian forces are reinforcing elements of the 30th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd CAA, CMD) and the 35th Motorized Rifle Brigade (41st CAA, CMD) in the direction of Vozdvyzhenka and Prohres.[60]

Russian forces continued offensive operations west and southwest of Donetsk City on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in the area. A Russian milblogger claimed on June 27 that Russian forces advanced up to 550 meters deep and 150 meters wide within Krasnohorivka (west of Donetsk City).[61]Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 700 meters deep south of Kostyantynivka (southwest of Donetsk City) and are within three kilometers of the O0532 (Kostyantynivka-Vuhledar) highway.[62]Russian forces continued offensive operations west of Donetsk City near Krasnohorivka and Heorhiivka and southwest of Donetsk City near Paraskoviivka, Kostyantynivka, and Vodyane on June 27 and 28.[63]Elements of the Russian 110th Motorized Rifle Brigade (1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps [DNR AC]) are reportedly operating in the Kurakhove direction (west and southwest of Donetsk City).[64]

Russian forces did not conduct ground attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on June 28.

Russian Supporting Effort Southern Axis(Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne) on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.[65]A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced at least one kilometer near Zahirne (northeast of Robotyne and southwest of Hulyaipole), but ISW has not observed visual confirmation of this claim.[66]

International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi stated on June 27 that strikes from unspecified actors destroyed an external radiation monitoring station roughly 16 kilometers from the occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).[67]Grossi noted that this particular monitoring station is not essential to the ZNPP's function and therefore does not directly impact safety at the ZNPP but that the strike is part of the continued erosion of safety measures of the ZNPP.

Fighting continued in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky and the Antonivsky roadway bridge (north of Oleshky), on June 28, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline.[68]A Russian milblogger amplified a claim that Russian forces effectively control Krynky but that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in basements that Russian forces cannot clear.[69]Elements of the Russian 126th Coastal Defense Brigade (22nd Army Corps [AC], Black Sea Fleet [BSF]; reportedly integrated into the 18th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue fighting on the east bank of the Dnipro River.[70]

Russian and occupation authorities are intensifying civilian warning and protection systems in occupied Sevastopol following an incident in which a partially-intercepted Ukrainian missile injured more than 150 beachgoers, which prompted widespread criticism of Russian occupation authorities. Sevastopol occupation head Mikhail Razvozhaev announced that the Sevastopol occupation government decided to adopt a new "Ballistika" warning system indicating that civilians need to shelter within two to three minutes and establish at least 600 new temporary shelters on beaches in which civilians can take refuge during strikes.[71]Russian state news outlet TASS reported that Russian authorities are also increasing fines to 300,000 rubles (about $3,500) for preventing civilians from entering private property during an air raid.[72]Russian ultranationalist milblogger and Kremlin Human Rights Committee member Alexander "Sasha" Kots praised the new measures.[73]Russian authorities continue to irresponsibly promote occupied Crimea as a tourist destination during wartime, and these new measures enable the Kremlin's contradictory objectives of attempting to maintain a veneer of stability and normalcy in occupied Crimea while also continuing its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and occupation of Crimea. Razvozhaev discouraged civilians from visiting Sevastopol's northern beaches until Russian authorities can construct shelters but explicitly stated that authorities are not closing Sevastopol's beaches - an irresponsible decision in wartime in an area being actively used to support military operations.[74]

Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign(Russian Objective: Target Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure in the rear and on the frontline)

Russian forces conducted limited missile strikes against Ukraine during the day on June 28. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces struck Odesa City with a ballistic missile, likely an Iskander-M armed with cluster munitions.[75]Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhii Lysak reported that Russian forces conducted an unspecified missile strike against Dnipro City.[76]

Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast Military Administration Head Svitlana Onyshchuk reported on June 28 that previous Russian missile strikes have damaged the Burshtyn Thermal Power Plant (BTPP) so severely that Ukraine cannot repair it.[77]Onyshchuk reported that Russian forces have launched over 12 missiles against the BTPP, and Ukrainian outletSuspilne Ivano-Frankivskreported that Russian forces have conducted strikes against the energy infrastructure in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast at least five times between March 22 and June 1.[78]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts(Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian opposition outletVazhnye Istoriiused Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) data to estimate that over 71,000 Russian men died in the war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.[79]Vazhnye Istoriiused Rosstat data to compare the pre-war ratio of male and female mortality rates to calculate what the male mortality rate would likely have been in 2022 and 2023 had there been no war in Ukraine.Vazhnye Istoriicalculated the difference between Rosstat's mortality data and the estimate for a normal expected mortality rate to estimate the minimum possible war deaths. Russian opposition outletMeduzasimilarly used Rosstat data to compare the pre-war ratio of male and female mortality rates to calculate an estimate for male mortality in 2022 and 2023 had there been no war in Ukraine.[80]Meduzathen compared the difference in male mortality rates to estimate that a minimum of 64,000 Russian men died in the war in Ukraine in 2022 and 2023.

Satellite imagery reportedly indicates that Russian forces have lost a significant number of tanks and armored vehicles in the war in Ukraine. German news outletSuddeutsche Zeitung(SZ) used artificial intelligence (AI) to examine satellite imagery taken between 2021 and 2024 of 87 Russian military sites, including 16 that store tanks and armored vehicles, and found that several tank and armored vehicle storage sites are empty.[81]SZ's AI analysis found that one base housed 857 tanks in April 2021, housed 431 in October 2022, and is nearly empty as of June 2024. International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) research analyst Michael Gjerstad told SZ that Russia has roughly 3,200 tanks in stock but that the majority of them are in bad condition. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) published a report on June 26 stating that Russia plans to produce 1,500 tanks and 3,000 other armored fighting vehicles in 2024, but RUSI noted that 85 percent of these vehicles are refurbished from storage instead of new production.[82]

Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Tharaka Balasuriya met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko and Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin on June 27 to resolve problems regarding the Russian military's recruitment of Sri Lankan nationals.[83]The Sri Lankan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) reported the officials discussed compensation to Sri Lankan nationals killed and wounded while serving in the Russian military, the possibility of Sri Lankan citizens terminating Russian military contracts early, and the establishment of a joint working committee to address concerns of Sri Lankans who are currently serving in the Russian military. Balasuriya stated that Russia and Sri Lanka agreed that Russia would stop recruiting Sri Lankan citizens into the Russian military after a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on June 11.[84]

Select Russian milbloggers credited themselves with influencing Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov's decision to provide Russian military personnel with social benefits. Two Russian milbloggers who attended the June 10 meeting between Belousov and a select group of Russian milbloggers claimed that following the meeting Belousov ordered the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to resolve problems with providing social support to veterans of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republic (DNR/LNR) formations who served prior to Russia's illegal annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts in 2022.[85]ISW assessed that Belousov likely met with select Russian milbloggers who have had the Kremlin's favor for some time to ensure their loyalty to a new MoD under Belousov.[86]These milbloggers' claims may also be an attempt to portray Belousov as a receptive leader.

Russian Technological Adaptations(Russian objective: Introduce technological innovations to optimize systems for use in Ukraine)

Russian officials continue to posture themselves as rallying the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) to innovate weapons and equipment for Russian forces in Ukraine. Russian First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov led a discussion at the "ERA" military innovation forum on June 28 in which he heavily emphasized the importance of developing innovative man-portable weapons, close combat arms, and airfield-based drones.[87]Manturov emphasized that the battlefield situation is dynamic and that Russian DIB enterprises must finalize new products "not even in months but in days." Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and heads of military command-and-control bodies and DIB enterprises also attended Manturov's discussion.[88]Yevkurov emphasized that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), the Russian government, the DIB, and the state-led "Popular Front" social movement are all collaborating to ensure Russia's technological lead in weapons production, especially in drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems.

Ukrainian Defense Industrial Efforts(Ukrainian objective: Develop its defense industrial base to become more self-sufficient in cooperation with US, European, and international partners)

ISW is not publishing coverage of Ukrainian defense industrial efforts today.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas(Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Russian and occupation officials continue efforts to integrate occupied areas of Ukraine into Russian legal, social, and informational structures. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated on June 28 that Russia must elevate the standard of living in occupied areas of Ukraine to meet Russian federal standards and solve social issues.[89]Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Eldar Gaifutdinov on June 27 to discuss further developing communications, television, and radio broadcasting infrastructure within occupied Kherson Oblast to help the "informational front" in the "hybrid war with the West."[90]

Russian authorities continue to Russify and militarize Ukrainian children in occupied areas in a broader effort to eradicate Ukrainian national identity and culture. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky claimed on June 27 that occupation authorities sent 70 Ukrainian schoolchildren to participate in the Russian state "Movement of the First's" "Zarnitsa 2.0" military-patriotic game that teaches basic military and sports skills and aims to instill a "love for the [Russian] Fatherland" in these Ukrainian children.[91]Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated on June 26 that Russian authorities have forced more than 16,500 Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine to join military-ideological organizations including Yunarmiya and "Movement of the First."[92]Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov stated that occupation authorities send Ukrainian children to Moscow through vacation schemes to give speeches supporting Russia's war in Ukraine and visit Russian military facilities.[93]

Russian Information Operations and Narratives

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to baselessly blame the United States for a recent Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol, Crimea and issue threats that aim to push the United States to self-deter against continued support for Ukraine. The Russian MoD suggested that the United States continues to aid strikes against occupied Crimea and framed this as risking direct confrontation between NATO and Russia.[94]Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov instructed the Russian General Staff to propose measures to promptly respond to Western "provocations." The Russian MoD claimed on June 23 that the United States was responsible for a Ukrainian strike on occupied Sevastopol since the United States allegedly helped Ukrainian forces with target designation.[95]The Russian MoD, however, notably acknowledged that a Russian air defense interceptor caused the missile to deviate from its flight path and detonate over civilians.[96]

Significant activity in Belarus(Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

Belarusian forces reportedly deployed a multiple rocket launch system (MLRS) battalion to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on June 28 that Belarusian forces deployed a Polonez MLRS battalion to the border in response to the "difficult situation" near the border and as part of a surprise readiness check.[97]The Belarusian State Border Committee claimed on June 28 that Belarusian forces shot down an alleged drone from the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) near the Ukrainian-Belarusian border in Gomel Oblast on June 26.[98]

Russian and Belarusian officials and enterprises discussed bilateral economic cooperation at the Forum of Regions of Belarus and Russia in Belarus on June 28. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated at the forum that Russia and Belarus are trying to introduce new technologies into economic activities and are developing "knowledge-intensive industries" and agriculture.[99]Russian Ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov claimed that Russian and Belarusian enterprises and representatives will sign over 100 contracts during the forum and that over 80 Russian federal subjects are involved in trade and economic cooperation with Belarus.[100]The Russian Federation Council claimed that Belarusian and Russian parliamentarians discussed bilateral cooperation in the fields of agro-industrial and light industry.[101]

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

[1]http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/74437

[2]http://kremlin dot ru/events/president/news/74437

[3]https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/article/article/1924779/us-withdraws-from-intermediate-range-nuclear-forces-treaty/;https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_166100.htm#:~:text=It%20eliminated%20a%20whole%20category,significant%20risk%20to%20Alliance%20security.;https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty; https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ssc-8-novator-9m729/

[4]https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/Article/3768263/us-naval-forces-europe-and-us-sixth-fleet-conduct-containerized-missile-launche/;https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-demonstrates-ability-to-close-baltic-sea/;https://www.usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-News/Article-Display/Article/3740807/us-armys-mid-range-capability-makes-its-first-deployment-in-the-philippines-for/#:~:text=NORTHERN%20LUZON%2C%20Philippines%20%E2%80%93%20In%20a,part%20of%20Exercise%20Salaknib%2024.;https://www.usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-News/Article-Display/Article/3728554/us-philippine-armies-enhance-interoperability-and-defense-capabilities-during-s/

[5]https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/sm-6/; https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/tomahawk/

[6]https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/News-Display/Article/3768263/us-naval-forces-europe-and-us-sixth-fleet-conduct-containerized-missile-launche/

[7]https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2024;https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-18-2024; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-19-2024

[8]https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/May%2021%2C%202024%2C%20Russian%20Offensive%20Campaign%20Assessment%20PDF.pdf;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-31-2024;

[9]https://t.me/egorovmb/3837

[10]https://t.me/astrapress/58498

[11]https://t.me/astrapress/58501

[12]https://t.me/avbogomaz/7282

[13]https://t.me/mod_russia/40387;

[14]https://t.me/AFUStratCom/24809

[15]https://t.me/AFUStratCom/24809

[16]https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324;https://isw.pub/UkrWar011524;https://isw.pub/UkrWar061824; https://isw.pub/UkrWar011624

[17];https://isw.pub/UkrWar041924;https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-9-2024

[18]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-15-2024; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-16-2024

[19]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024;https://isw.pub/UkrWar030224;https://isw.pub/UkrWar022924; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022724

[20]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-3-2024; https://isw.pub/UkrWar022324

[21]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-6-2024;https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-12-2024

[22]https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/special-report-russian-strikes-more-effective-ukraine-exhausts-defenses

[23]https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-russian-elites-made-peace-war

[24]https://isw.pub/UkrWar060724

[25]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231469 ;https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968474

[26]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21204111;https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231469 ;https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968474

[27]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231469 ;https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968474

[28]https://tassdot ru/obschestvo/21231213

[29]https://www.interfaxdot ru/russia/968472

[30]https://isw.pub/UkrWar06272024

[31]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/after-oil-russia-may-now-be-building-a-shadow-fleet-for-gas

[32]https://isw.pub/UkrWar062424

[33]https://x.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1806590947246961001; https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/1806612936032456898; https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1806633109812621721; https://x.com/Danspiun/status/1806633109812621721

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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 28, 2024 - Institute for the Study of War

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The Parliamentary Assembly of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has adopted a resolution recognizing Russia's actions in Ukraine as genocide against its people, a member of Kyiv's delegation said on June 30.

In a post on Telegram, Pavlo Frolov said the document also "defines the decolonization of the Russian Federation as a necessary prerequisite for establishing a lasting peace."

The OSCE has 57 members including Ukraine and Russia. The Parliamentary Assembly is the body tasked with "facilitating inter-parliamentary dialogue."

Its resolutions are not legally-binding.

According to Frolov, the latest resolution calls on participating members to "make efforts for the de-occupation of Crimea and all occupied territories of Ukraine" and create a special tribunal to "hold the Russian Federation accountable for crimes committed during the aggressive war against Ukraine."

It also calls for "an international and national investigation into mass atrocities, murders, torture, and rape by the Russian army."

The genocidal intent of Russia's aggression toward Ukraine has manifested in war crimes and indiscriminate violence directed at Ukrainian civilians, but also in the denial and distortion of history, attempts to erase Ukrainian culture, and the abduction and deportation of Ukrainian children.

Since the outbreak of Russia's full-scale war, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly and the parliaments of nine countries, including Ukraine, have recognized acts committed by Russian invading forces as genocide.

Several top Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, former Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, Valery Gerasimov, have been issued arrest warrants from the International Criminal Court (ICC) for their roles in alleged crimes committed against Ukraine.

Danylo Mokryk: Say the word genocide

In the spring of 2022, right after Russias atrocities in Bucha were exposed, several Western leaders uttered the term genocide. U.S. President Joe Biden, former U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, former Colombian President Ivan Duque, and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did so in short suc

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OSCE Parliamentary Assembly adopts resolution recognizing Russian genocide of Ukrainian people - Kyiv Independent