Daily Archives: June 29, 2024

President Joe Bidens debate performance is raising new questions about whether Democrats have any other options in November if the 81-year-old president is no longer willing or able to campaign.

With Biden having already secured a presumptive nomination, Democrats prospects for a course change are diminishing.

Speaking hoarsely and suffering from what aides said was a cold, Biden spoke Thursday in a halting and sometimes disjointed manner, a performance that is only renewing concerns about his ability to serve four more years. Biden told reporters afterward he will stay in the race.

He did get stronger as the debate went on but by that time, I think the panic had set in, David Axelrod, a former campaign strategist to President Barack Obama, said on CNN. And I think youre going to hear discussions that I dont know will lead to anything but there are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.

Heres how those discussions could play out.

Yes. Most recently, President Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek re-nomination for a second full term in 1968, as Vietnam War protests mounted. In an Oval Office speech, Johnson made the surprise announcement that I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president.

But that was at the end of March extremely late even before the modern nomination calendar became as front-loaded as it is today. Unlike Johnson, Biden has already secured enough delegates for the nomination.

It would be difficult. Biden faced minimal opposition in his partys primaries and has secured 99% of the pledged delegates to the convention. Those delegates will be chosen in large part for their loyalty to the president. Absent extraordinary circumstances and a backup plan its unlikely they would remove him from the ticket.

Any challenger to Biden would have to announce his or her candidacy before the formal vote, publicly challenging the incumbent in a high-stakes attempted party coup.

Soon.

The Democratic National Committee had already planned to move up Bidens nomination via a phoned-in roll call ahead of the convention to satisfy an Aug. 7 ballot deadline in Ohio. The Republican-led Ohio legislature has extended that deadline, but the Democratic Chairman Jaime Harrison has said the party will go forward with the early roll call anyway, making the convention which begins August 19 a mere formality.

The decision to replace him would be made by the members of the DNC. But then the party would face another hurdle: Printed ballots with Bidens name already on them.

Laws vary by state about how a vote for Biden would be counted if hes no longer the nominee, but his votes would likely go to his replacement when the Electoral College meets.

Vice President Kamala Harris is the most logical heir apparent, but it wouldnt be automatic.

Other candidates waiting in the wings who deferred to Biden and continue to publicly support him include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

None of those candidates have polled any better against Trump than Biden does, according to a Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll of seven battleground states.

Modern presidential campaigns are hugely expensive undertakings, and financial considerations would play no small role.

Bidens campaign and party had $212 million cash on hand at the end of May, and that money would be available to Harris should she take over the top of the ticket. Any other candidate would likely have to start from scratch.

Bidens campaign and the Democratic Party have already spent about $346 million trying to re-elect Biden. Picking another candidate could require spending even more money to introduce a new name to voters.

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Democrats have begun to talk about replacing Biden for the 2024 election - Fortune

President Biden's odds of being the Democratic Party's 2024 presidential election candidate slumped by nearly 30 percent in the immediate aftermath of his debate with Donald Trump on Thursday night, according to one betting website.

The price of a share for Biden being the candidate on Predict It fell from 85 cents immediately before the debate to 61 cents when it had concluded, representing a fall of 28.2 percent, though it did later recover somewhat to 72 cents.

During the debate, which took place in Atlanta and was hosted by CNN, Biden appeared to lose his chain of thoughts several times sparking renewed concern over the 81-year-old's health and mental acumen. According to CNN chief national correspondent John King, his performance has sparked "panic" within the Democratic Party, and his odds of winning the 2024 presidential election slumped sharply with a number of leading bookmakers.

The Predict It website is run as a research project by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. It allows people to bet on the outcome of certain events by buying shares, valued at between 1 and 99 cents depending on the probability of them taking place. If an event does then occur the bet maker receives $1 for each share, meaning the higher the initial price, the more likely it is expected to take place by the website.

Predict It offers bets on "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?" Shares for Joe Biden in answer to this question were priced at 85 each before Thursday's debate but then fell to 61 cents after it completed showing the website's decreased confidence that he will be the nominee.

Newsweek contacted Joe Biden's 2024 presidential election campaign for comment by email.

U.K.-based betting company Betfair reduced the odds of Biden winning in November from 13/8 (38.1 percent) to 7/2 (22.2 percent) in the immediate aftermath of Thursday's debate.

During the same period, the odds of Trump achieving victory in November increased from 8/13 (61.9 percent) to 4/7 (63.6 percent) after the debate. The discrepancy between these two figures suggests an increase in bet makers who don't think Biden will be the Democratic presidential nominee come November.

Betfair spokesperson Sam Rosbottom told Newsweek: "Biden's disastrous head-to-head with Trump has seen punters rapidly lose faith that the incumbent president has another five years in him.

"The two men were neck-and-neck back in April; now, despite Trump's varying legal and financial headaches, he has the punters' firm backing to be the next U.S. president."

At one point during Thursday's debate, Biden appeared to lose his point while defending his record on immigration. He said: "I've changed it in a way that now, you're in a situation where there are 40 percent fewer people coming across the border illegally, it's better than when [Trump] left office. And I'm going to continue to move it until we get the total ban on...the total initiative relative to what we're going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers."

In response, Trump replied: "I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence. I don't think he knows what he said either."

A second presidential debate between Biden and Trump is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET on September 10 and is to be hosted by ABC News.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.

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Joe Biden's Chances of Winning Democratic Nomination Fall 30% After Debate - Newsweek

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WASHINGTON President Joe Bidens unsteady performance at Thursdays presidential debate has sparked a wave of anxiety among Texas Democrats, some of whom fear their partys standard bearer could drag down the rest of the ticket and cost Democrats down-ballot seats in November.

Even Bidens allies and supporters in Texas acknowledged the debate was a disaster. The president, who hoped to quell concerns about his acuity and fitness for office, routinely struggled to muster up complete sentences and often wove multiple points together, muddling his message. The performance overshadowed the debates substance, including former President Donald Trumps support for rolling back abortion rights and refusal to disavow the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol issues where Texas Democrats hope to seize the upper hand this fall.

Biden had a very low bar going into the debate and failed to clear even that bar, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julin Castro said on social media. Castro, a former San Antonio mayor, faced Biden in the 2020 Democratic primary. He seemed unprepared, lost, and not strong enough to parry effectively with Trump, who lies constantly.

State Rep. Ron Reynolds, a Missouri City Democrat who will be a delegate at the Democratic National Convention, called for Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden as the nominee. Reynolds, who chairs the Texas Legislative Black Caucus, wrote on social media that he was "VERY disturbed" by the debate and shared a screenshot of an op-ed headline that argued Biden's "mental capacity is an election issue."

Two-thirds of debate viewers polled by CNN after the debate said they thought Trump outperformed Biden, though only a small fraction of those who backed Biden before the debate say they would now consider voting for Trump.

Statewide polls show Biden trailing Trump by a wider margin than at any point in the state four years ago, and Democrats worry that a further slip could torpedo their chances in key races, including U.S. Rep. Colin Allreds challenge to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz and several GOP-controlled state House seats they are targeting. The fate of these largely unknown down-ballot candidates is closely linked to their partys success atop the ticket, where presidential nominees are more visible to everyday voters and have far more money to drive turnout.

I think that if you are a down-ballot candidate in a swing area, that candidate's responsibility for turnout becomes even bigger than it was before yesterday, said Ed Espinoza, a Democratic strategist who previously oversaw the progressive group Progress Texas. You're gonna need an extra push.

Allreds campaign and social media was silent throughout the debate. The Dallas Democrat declined to comment after leaving the U.S. House chamber on Friday, saying he was still processing the debate.

U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, an El Paso Democrat who serves as a national co-chair on Bidens campaign, said it was not the night any of us wanted. Still, she expressed more dismay that reporters were not further challenging Trumps comments about migrants coming from prisons and asylums, which she described as beyond vile. Escobar said she still had confidence that Biden could counter Trumps remarks in the future.

U.S. Rep. Marc Veasey, D-Fort Worth, acknowledged that Biden underperformed, but warned members of his party to be cautious before declaring the presidents reelection effort dead.

I don't think members should say anything that they will regret later before everybody's had a chance to just kind of chill a little bit, he said.

Congressional Republicans, meanwhile, delighted at Bidens debate performance, immediately using it to target Democratic congressional candidates who had endorsed Bidens fitness. The National Republican Congressional Committee didnt hesitate to unearth an old quote by Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen, where he said Biden was healthy, hes sharp, hes a full package.

Vicente Gonzalez has supported Joe Biden every step of the way in his open border and inflationary policies and now as Biden mentally struggles to do the job as president, former U.S. Rep. Mayra Flores, who is challenging Gonzalez for the 34th district, said in a text message. Now is not the time for feeble leadership from Biden or blind yes men like Gonzalez.

Bidens age could be particularly effective among Hispanic voters, who are on average the youngest ethnic group in the country, said Giancarlo Sopo, a Republican media strategist. The only U.S. races targeted by national party groups are in majority Hispanic districts in South Texas.

It just confirmed what all Americans already know: that he is a feeble man not able to perform the duties of his position, said U.S. Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-McAllen, who is facing a competitive challenge from Democrat Michelle Vallejo to keep her seat in the 15th district.

Republicans are hoping to flip two U.S. House district seats this year in South Texas the 34th and the 28th districts and are investing heavily to hold onto the 15th district. National Democrats are also showing early interest in the Senate race in Texas for the first time in decades, identifying the state as their most likely flippable seat in a largely difficult map for Democrats this year.

But Democrats retort that their congressional candidates dont tie themselves closely to Biden anyway. U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar, a Laredo Democrat in the 28th district, and Gonzalez both routinely vote against their party, voting with Republicans on issues ranging from the border to energy regulation. Allred voted for a Republican resolution condemning Bidens handling of the border, though he later reversed course on a similar resolution.

In Harris County, where Republicans have gained recent momentum after losing political control, GOP Chair Cindy Siegel said her party would do everything it can to tie Democrats to Bidens most glaring weaknesses, from inflation to immigration. Siegel also predicted that Trump would help us succeed and win our down-ballot races a striking change in posture from just four years ago, when Biden carried Harris County by 13 points over Trump.

I fully expect that [Trumps] going to do a lot better than he did back in 2020, Siegel said, arguing that national polls showing stronger support for Trump among Black and Hispanic voters would be borne out in Harris Countys diverse pool of voters.

Siegel's counterpart, Harris County Democratic Party Chair Mike Doyle, said the "Democratic brand" remains popular in Texas' largest county and "is only going to grow more compelling as we head into November." Many of Harris County's Democratic law enforcement leaders, judges and other local officials are up for reelection in the fall.

"To those who say that President Biden might drag down these great candidates, I would point to the delivered promises on infrastructure, protecting our interests abroad, and standing up for basic human rights for decades," Doyle said in a statement.

Democratic state lawmakers and legislative candidates stayed largely silent throughout Thursday's debate, mostly resharing other posts that called out Trumps repeated falsehoods and criticized the debate format for letting said falsehoods run unchecked. State Rep. John Bucy of Austin, one of the few Democrats in the Legislature who said anything during the debate, wrote that Trump, in claiming credit for the demise of Roe v. Wade, was directly responsible for Texas extreme abortion ban.

Abortion rights are perhaps the leading issue for Texas Democrats up and down the ballot, including at the Texas Supreme Court, which has upheld the states abortion bans. A political group called Find Out PAC is targeting three GOP justices over the issue, highlighting the court's move to reject a Dallas woman's request to obtain an abortion for a nonviable pregnancy that her doctors said threatened her health and future fertility.

The PACs leader, former Under Secretary of the Air Force Gina Ortiz Jones, expressed optimism in the wake of Bidens poor performance, citing Trumps abortion comments.

"Last night, we saw why Texans should be alarmed, motivated, and optimistic about ousting Texas Supreme Court Justices Jimmy Blacklock, John Devine, and Jane Bland, Jones, a former Texas congressional candidate, said in a statement. Trump brags about eliminating Roe, but these justices are more extreme. Theyve shown that medical exceptions can exist on paper, but not in reality.

Though Texas is a national priority for U.S. House and Senate races this cycle, the Biden campaign has not put much focus into flipping the state. Texas voted for Trump by 5.6 points in 2020, and Biden remains deeply unpopular in the state.

Espinoza, the Democratic strategist, said the lack of national investment and the possibility of an unpopular president dragging down the rest of the ticket is nothing new for Texas Democrats.

Its not like there have been a ton of coattails to ride in years past, he said.

Gonzalez said he expected to overcome GOP attacks by touting his record over four terms in Congress.

The problem with [Republicans] strategy is people in my district know me well, and tie me to $9 Billion dollars in Federal funding Ive delivered, funding that has created jobs and is transforming South Texas infrastructure, healthcare & education, Gonzalez said in a text message. And they tie [Flores] to the fact that she was a 5 month special election fluke that embarrassed South Texans by not offering a single bill or proposal that would improve lives and not delivering a single dollar in resources during her short tenure.

The collective Democratic panic has led to questions about whether Biden should remain at the top of the ticket. On his podcast Friday, Cruz, who characterized Bidens performance as an old man on his front porch screaming get off my front porch, theorized former First Lady Michelle Obama could be tapped in a last minute salve for the Democrats.

The party still hasnt officially named its nominee. If Biden does step down, party delegates would determine their pick at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August.

Biden, who said he had a sore throat during the debate, attempted to assuage concerns at a campaign rally in North Carolina on Friday. Appearing considerably more alert and using a more forceful tone than during the debate, Biden said he would not be running unless he firmly believed himself capable of the job.

A campaign spokesperson for Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-San Antonio, said the North Carolina rally was a "much stronger reflection of the leader Americans have seen over the last three and a half years. The dynamics last night were not favorable, and the president was clearly taken aback by the extent that Trump was willing to lie about his record in front of a national audience."

"I don't walk as easily as I used to. I don't speak as smoothly as I used to. I don't debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth, Biden said to the crowd. "When you get knocked down, you get back up."

Disclosure: Progress Texas has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here.

Just in: Former U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyoming; U.S. Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pennsylvania; and Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt will take the stage at The Texas Tribune Festival, Sept. 57 in downtown Austin. Buy tickets today!

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Down ballot Texas Dems worry Biden debate hurts them, too - The Texas Tribune

People have been talking behind closed doors about President Joe Bidens cognitive decline for the past several years. After the Wall Street Journal published a story earlier this month raising concerns about Bidens health, Democrats slammed the article, deflected the criticism, and characterized it as a hit piece. But after his performance in the first presidential debate on Thursday night, party operatives were no longer able to hide the problem.

Now, as Democrats scramble to assess the damage, the question has turned to how or if the party will address Bidens candidacy crisis at the Democratic National Convention in August.

Theyve just been trying to skate to the general election with as minimal exposure as possible to the public. And now its blown up on them, said Thomas Kennedy, a former delegate to the Democratic National Committee who resigned in January over Bidens support for Israels war on Gaza. The delegates knew, the electeds knew, the donors knew, obviously the staffers know, he said. Everybody knew.

Efforts to raise concerns within the DNC about Bidens health have been definitively shut down for years, Kennedy said. One DNC member who suggested that another candidate should run in 2024 said he was attacked by other members and faced with a vote to remove him from the committee. Thats the sort of pushback that any sort of not just dissent, but any sort of mentioning of this topic has been happening for two years, Kennedy said.

Bidens campaign, for its part, made clear on Friday that he has no intention of backing down. Asked about his debate performance, campaign spokesperson Lauren Hitt emphasized that Biden would not be stepping down and pointed to the campaigns $14 million fundraising haul after the debate and a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday. He just gave a very forceful speech at a rally in NC with a fired up crowd, Hitt wrote to The Intercept. In comments made on Air Force One on Friday afternoon, Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler doubled down: Joe Biden is the nominee, Tyler said.

Current and former delegates told The Intercept there is little chance that the DNC would change course. The convention, the delegates said, would likely follow the same pro forma processes that have sidelined reform efforts and with them, the partys progressive wing. The convention has already moved the vote for the presidential nomination online, weeks before the actual convention is held in person in Chicago.

There are mechanisms to allow for an open convention to nominate another candidate, but the party has avoided that option as a last resort and it would be too late at this point, said Nadia Ahmad, a DNC member in Florida. Biden would have to decide to step aside on his own accord. Or, delegates would have to organize themselves quickly to commit to another candidate. Given that the nomination vote will take place ahead of the convention, Ahmad said that any open nomination process would have to take place online too, which is unlikely.

Theres definitely an appetite for what I would call the combustion factor, Ahmad said. People are willing to burn things down to maybe get them to work. Thats where you see the rise of a third party.

The convention has long stopped serving as a place for democratic decision-making, she added. The Democratic Party is more invested in trying to maintain control than it is in trying to win an election in November.

Another DNC member who requested anonymity to avoid reprisal said the debate only emphasized what progressives have been saying about the DNC in recent cycles. Unless Biden withdraws, the convention is a stage managed coronation.

Kennedy noted that the days of action-packed political conventions are far behind us. These are not the conventions of 1968 or 1972 that we read about, he said. Theyre just highly choreographed top-down affairs where theres not a lot of room for political maneuvering or opposing sides, or anything that strays away from the establishment. And the delegates are carefully chosen and funneled in a way that theyre part of the party machinery and hackery.

Days before the debate, the New York Times published a story about how the president was battling misleading videos showing his age-related deterioration. Very quickly into the debate on Thursday evening, Bidens campaign was battling on another front: how to stop the bleeding as coverage swirled about how the performance would affect his chances at winning the November election. During a routine, post-debate call with surrogates last night, campaign staff acknowledged that the debate was rocky, according to a source who attended. By the next day, the party apparatus was back to normal messaging.

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Can Anything Stop the Democratic National Convention From Being A Biden Coronation? - The Intercept