Daily Archives: June 13, 2024

Im not easily flabbergasted, but the other day my flabber got good and gasted. I was riding my beach bike, the one with the 2-by-3-foot American flag flying off the back. I fly it because I (a) love my country and (b) love my spine, and the flapping flag means fewer cars flatten me.

So Im pedaling along the street and the Stars and Stripes are whipping behind me, and I hear a honk. Thats when a guy on the passenger side of a white 4x4 Ram truck leans out and yells, Yeah! Go Trump!

Go Trump? Me? He cant be yelling that at me. I look around for somebody in a MAGA hat or a T-shirt with Trumps mug shot, but theres nobody. And thats when it hits me.

This guy thinks Im a Trumper.

Why else would I be flying an American flag?

Then, a week later, it happens again, only in reverse. I'm riding when a woman leans out of her green Subaru and hollers, F--- Trump! and flips me off. Shed seen the flag and figured the same thing as the guy in the truck.

This lady thinks Im a Trumper.

Which brings me to a question for Friday Flag Day: When did the American flag become another Trump property?

And if the former president doesnt quite own it, he has definitely co-opted it. Nowadays, if you see a jacked-high pickup with four American flags, you either honk proudly or move three lanes away. Theres a house on my block with a giant Trump flag hanging from the roof. Do you ever see a Biden flag? Me neither, not once. Online, you can find dozens of American flags for sale with Donald Trumps name or face on them. Good luck finding one with Bidens.

Presidential candidates have always been glad to wrap themselves in the flag, of course. But with Trump, it has never looked more like a Hollywood prop. Trump doesnt care about the flag any more than he cares about being a Republican. What he cares about is how he looks holding it.

I was with Trump one time, 20 years ago, when he kept mis-introducing me as the guy who runs Sports Illustrated or this guy owns SI! I just worked at the place. When I asked him why he was lying to people, he said, Sounds better.

Trump loves the flag, like the Bible, because it looks better. The American flags flying at his properties are about the size of a Dennys. He actually cuddled up to a flag at a conservative conference in 2020 and mouthed, I love you, baby.

Hes yuuuuge on the flag, but puny on what it stands for.

Serve your country in the military? Uh no.

Obey the law? No, no, 34 times no.

Free speech? Big no. Trump says that if reelected he would retaliate against media criminally or civilly.

But what really makes me eat bees is that Trumpers arent just kidnapping the flag theyre abusing it, too. MAGAs are flying the flag upside-down. Like the one that flew over the Alitos house. That used to be a seafaring sign that a ship is in distress. Now its a sign that the brain is.

In video of the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021, an Arkansas trucker picked up an American flag on a pole and beat a cop with it. Bash the Blue.

Theres also a Jan. 6 video showing the invaders yanking down the Star-Spangled Banner and putting up a Trump one. And Colin Kaepernick taking a knee was treasonous?

For a lot of Americans, the flag has become a symbol of Trump misogyny, Trump bigotry and Trump wannabe president for life. Which means, for Democrats like me, flying an American flag on your house is akin to bringing your neighbors anthrax brownies. Flying a flag puts you in the pickup truck with an Oath Keeper. You can see why. During the 2020 election, a phalanx of trucks flying American flags and Trump flags tried to run a Biden campaign bus off the road.

The Stars and Stripes were here 169 years before Trump was born, and theyll be here long after hes gone. I say its time to take the flag back. And so does the Biden campaign, judging by the Democratic National Committees recent ad for him its just called Flag.

The American flag belongs to 336 million of us, not just the 46.9 percent of the electorate that went for Trump last time around. More than 81 million Americans voted for Biden in 2020. The more of us flying the flag from our porches and cars and, yeah, bikes, the less it seems as though Trump helped Betsy Ross sew it.

Go Trump? Great idea. Go, Trump, as far away as possible. But leave the flag.

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Opinion | The American flag isnt another Trump property. Time to reclaim it. - The Washington Post

Former President Donald Trump visited Capitol Hill on Thursday to meet with House and Senate Republicans. Brandon Bell/Getty Images hide caption

Former President Donald Trump held two separate meetings Thursday with GOP lawmakers in Washington. Trump used the events, each held blocks from the U.S. Capitol, to push for GOP members to unify behind him ahead of this year's presidential election.

Trump ended his visit with Senate Republicans with a brief press availability where he listed goals for a GOP-led government and described the current state of the country in bleak and dysfunctional terms.

"We have great unity, we have great common sense," he said. "A lot of very smart people in this room."

Trump did not take any questions.

The former president began the day with a closed-door meeting with House Republicans where he pledged to support members so they can win big in November, praised Speaker Mike Johnson and discussed a wide range of issues including inflation and abortion.

The meeting, which took place near the U.S. Capitol, was his first visit back since he left office and since hiscriminal convictions in the New York hush money trial. Trump is meeting with Senate Republicans this afternoon.

It is also the first time Trump has visited Capitol Hill since the January 6th riot at the Capitol. Trump was not present that day as his supporters stormed the building and he has not visited the Capitol building in the years that followed including President Bidens inauguration, which Trump skipped.

President Trump brought an extraordinary amount of energy, and excitement and enthusiasm this morning, Johnson said while flanked by other House leaders after their more than hour-long meeting.

The afternoon session with the Senate was also an opportunity for Trump to address skeptics within the party. In recent months, more Senate Republicans, including those initially resistant to weigh in, have said theyre supporting Trumps re-election run. Others, like Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., have refused to back him or continue to avoid discussing their support for the former president.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who was one of seven Senate Republicans to vote to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, said she wouldn't attending the meeting because of a longstanding conflict.

The meetings mark a high-stakes affair for Trump and Republicans heading into the contentious final months of the campaign. While many Congressional Republicans are firmly behind Trump, there remains a divide among some as the former president faces multiple legal battles.

Several members leaving the meeting highlighted Trump asking Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to be nice to Johnson. Greene responded with a hand motion that signaled, maybe.

President Trump was very much himself no teleprompter, no notecards, said Greene, who led the failed effort to oust Johnson last month. He joked with everybody.

Greene said there were no discussions about Trumps potential pick for vice president, and that Trump told members he feels a lot of states are in play with plans to spend money in New Jersey, New York, Minnesota and Virginia.

He did say theres a few of you in the room that might not be happy with me because Im supporting your opponent, but I will be doing tele-town halls for many of you, helping you get across the line, doing whatever it takes to win the House and win it big, she added.

Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C. said Trump was casting a wide net.

Theres no state hes not going in, he said.

That includes includes races where he isnt backing the incumbent.

The former president endorsed GOP Virginia Rep. Bob Goods primary challenger, John Maguire, ahead of next weeks Republican primary. Good attended the meeting, but declined to discuss it with NPR on his way out.

Members said Trump did most of the talking in the meeting. Rep Ben Cline, R-Va., noted well over an hour into the session, it wasnt a discussion, Trumps just been talking, but he added Trump took some questions.

Trump also took a swipe at those House GOP lawmakers who voted to impeach him in 2021, noting there werent many left in Congress.

Later, several members said he appeared to signal support of California Rep. David Valadao, who voted to impeach, but without naming him.

He also took a jab at Taylor Swift, noting he signed a bill during his administration to help songwriters, and that he was surprised Swift wasnt supporting him.

South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace said Trump devoted a significant portion of his remarks to speaking about abortion.

Ensuring that women know that we care and that were pro-woman and pro-life is a really important message for us going into November, Mace said. He talked about exceptions for rape, incest and life of the mother.

Mace, one of Trumps former enemies, now has his endorsement, and was congratulated on her recent primary win.

Rep. Marc Molinaro, running for reelection in a competitive district in New York, told reporters on the abortion discussion, his point was obviously to speak from your heart. And I've embraced this in my own district for the people I represent, just we've got to be respectful of the very difficult choices women have to make.

Norman said the message from Trump on abortion was let the states decide. He told lawmakers hes not going to get into the details on specific restrictions and they shouldn't either, but if they weigh in on specific restrictions in terms of 8, 10, 12 week ban, use your heart.

Multiple Republicans told NPR that Trump talked about ramping up pressure on China, and touted his own policy as president imposing tariffs on China.

One House Republican who has not yet endorsed Trump, Rep. Dave Schweikert, R-Ariz., said about the discussion, I was actually pleased it was mostly on economy, on inflation. He told reporters he planned to endorse Trump after the GOP convention.

GOP lawmakers said Trump didnt weigh in on a specific tax strategy, or the speakers proposal to push through an aggressive package early in 2025 using expedited budget rules, but urged them to vote to cut taxes.

He talked about tax-free tips, which is a great opportunity for middle class workers, people who basically make a living on tips to not pay taxes on those things, a good thing, a popular thing with the middle class, Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., said.

For their part, congressional Democrats said today marked a reminder of a dark moment in the countrys history, pointing to Trumps role in the Jan. 6 attack.

On January 6th, Donald Trump lit a match to democracy with an insurrection on Capitol Hill, and, today, he's arrived at the scene of the crime and continues to throw fuel on the flame, said California Democratic Rep. Zoe Lofgren, who served on the former Jan. 6 committee.

NPRs Franco Ordoez contributed to this report.

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Trump met with GOP lawmakers in Washington to rally support, push for unity - NPR

WASHINGTON Three and a half years ago, President Donald Trump incited a violent riot at the Capitol in a bid to overturn Joe Bidens election victory and remain in power, a special House committee concluded after a lengthy investigation.

On Thursday, Trump made his first visit to Capitol Hill since before the Jan. 6 attack as Republicans gave a heros welcome to their partys presumptive 2024 nominee.

Less than five months before Trump's rematch with Biden, the closed-door meetings with House and Senate Republicans represented a rare moment of unity for a party that has been engaged in a civil war since Jan. 6.

In the Senate meeting, Trump made peace with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who had blamed Trump for the deadly Capitol riot. The two men had not spoken since December 2020. McConnell said he and Trump shook hands several times Thursday, calling it a good meeting and an entirely positive session."

It was a pep rally for President Trump, Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., a Trump loyalist, said as he left the House gathering.

With Trump and Biden locked in a competitive race and control of Congress is up for grabs this fall, many in the GOP expressed optimism about sweeping the 2024 elections and acting swiftly on Trumps agenda.

Trump delivered a message about "unity," saying Republicans need to come together to defeat Democrats in November, one source in his meeting with House Republicans room said. He offered to do tele-townhalls for members facing tough races and stressed that Republicans should not attack each other.

At one point, two sources said, Trump implored his close ally, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., to get along with Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., whom she attempted to oust from power.

"Marjorie, are you being nice to Mike?" Trump asked, the sources said, eliciting laughter from House Republicans.

One source who observed Greene's reaction said she made a sort of hand gesture, which Greene herself confirmed afterward.

During his talk, the former president jumped from topic to topic, touching on everything from border security and China "They are ripping us off" to railing against trans athletes in women's sports.

Minutes after the Supreme Court rejected a challenge to the abortion pill mifepristone, Trump told House Republicans that in the post-Roe environment, the party needs to talk about abortion correctly, multiple sources said.

He acknowledged that the issue of abortion rights had cost Republicans and that its too important to ignore, while adding it's now back in the hands of the people and the states his stated preference. He also voiced support for abortion policy that includes exceptions like in cases rape, incest, and life of the mother.

Were the party of common sense on this and other key issues, Trump told the lawmakers. He did not directly reference mifepristone or the Supreme Court ruling.

Members in the room had mixed reactions to his abortion riff, the sources said.

Trump also took a shot at Milwaukee, the host city of the Republican National Convention where Trump will formally accept the GOP presidential nomination. It's planned for July 15 through 18, though Trump may not attend in person.

The former president called Milwaukee horrible and overrun by crime, a source said, adding that no one in the room disagreed with him.

As Trump arrived for his first meeting at the Capitol Hill Club Thursday morning, a handful of protesters held signs reading things like Failed Coup and Democracy forever, Trump never. The Democratic National Committee, meanwhile, has set up a mobile billboard that will attempt to follow Trump between meetings while airing footage from the Jan. 6 attack.

Thursday's Senate meeting marked the first time since the Capitol riot that Trump was in the same room with McConnell, with the former president's campaign having accused the Senate GOP leader of "killing the Republican Party through weakness and cowardice" and attacking McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, with racist attacks.

At the time, McConnell slammed Trump as being practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of Jan. 6. He has since endorsed Trump for president and announced that he will step down as Senate GOP leader after this year.

I said three years ago right after the Capitol was attacked that I would support our nominee, regardless of who it was including him. Ive said earlier this year I support him. Hes earned the nomination by the voters all across the country, McConnell told reporters Tuesday, without using Trumps name.

Senators described the handshakes between Trump and McConnell as a unifying moment. "To me, that was some type of reconciliation," said Sen. Mike Braun, R-Ind. "There was a lot of unity in that room."

During the meeting, Senate GOP Conference Chair John Barrasso, R-Wyo., brought out a birthday cake to mark Trump's 78th birthday on Friday. Candles on the cake read "45" a nod to the fact that Trump served as the 45th president but Barrasso added another set of candles on the cake that read "47" as Trump seeks to return to the White House as the 47th president.

Senators sang "Happy Birthday," and Trump made a wish before blowing out the candles.

The Senate discussion was heavily focused on energy and economic policy, including threatening tariffs on China if they buy oil from Iran. And he spoke about a new policy proposal he raised at a Las Vegas rally over the weekend: getting rid of taxes on tips.

Trump joked to senators that he's become very popular among the caddies at Mar-a-Lago after proposing tax exemptions for tips, according to Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D.

"The little guy who makes his money on tips. Making that no longer taxable is something that really resonates with a lot of people," Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D., told NBC News.

Between meetings with House and Senate Republicans, Trump sat down with CEOs with the Business Roundtable, a lobbying group that says it represents more than 200 major companies, as Washington and key industries prepare for the reality that Trump might be president again.

Several top contenders vying to be Trump's running mate also had a chance to catch his attention Thursday. They included GOP Sens. JD Vance of Ohio, Marco Rubio of Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina. Trump mentioned the trio by name but not in a way that revealed his thinking of the VP decision, a source said.

Some Trump critics in the party did skip out on the Senate meeting, including Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and Susan Collins of Maine. Both voted to convict Trump after he was impeached in connection with Jan. 6.

Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, another vocal Trump critic who voted for conviction, had planned to catch a flight rather than attend the meeting. But on Wednesday, he said his flight to Florida had been canceled and therefore would join the event.

During his visit, Trump is not expected to set foot in the Capitol complex itself, which his supporters overran in 2021. He huddled in the morning with House Republicans at the Capitol Hill Club, a private Republican club which is just steps from the Capitol office buildings. In the afternoon, he will meet with GOP senators at the National Republican Senatorial Committee headquarters after he addresses the Business Roundtable.

Sen. Todd Young, R-Ind., who has not endorsed Trump for president, declined to say whether he will attend.

No Trump questions, Young said, adding that it is a personal rule until I decide to make it no longer a rule.

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Republicans host 'pep rally' with Trump in his first visit to Capitol Hill since Jan. 6 attack - NBC News

WHEN DONALD TRUMP left office in January 2021 his political career seemed over. It was not just Democrats who thought so. We are very, very close to being able to ignore Trump most nights, wrote Tucker Carlson privately when he was still the host of Fox Newss most popular evening show. I truly cant wait. Mr Carlson did not get his wish. Our statistical forecast, which we launch this week, gives Mr Trump a two-in-three chance of winning in November. This is the same model, plus some refinements, that made Joe Biden a strong favourite to become president in 2020. Tested on election data from previous elections (with no knowledge of the outcome), the model gave Barack Obama about the same chance of winning in 2012 at this point in the race as it gives Mr Trump now. Like most pundits, it thought Hillary Clinton likelier to win in 2016a reminder that models, though they offer a rigorous way to think about the world, are not crystal balls.

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A second Trump term: from unthinkable to probable - The Economist

Donald Trump returned to Washington on Thursday to rally congressional Republicans behind his candidacy and remind lawmakers what they could achieve if voters return the White House and Senate to Republican hands and expand the slender House GOP majority.

In the morning, Trump met with House Republicans at the Capitol Hill Club, which is steps away from the U.S. Capitol. He is scheduled to meet with Senate Republicans shortly after noon.

According to sources in the room for the House GOP meeting who spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss the gathering Trump delivered bullish remarks on the presidential race, Republicans messaging on abortion, lowering costs, his distaste for the Justice Department and his foreign agenda amid ongoing wars.

The former president who has repeatedly attacked the Justice Department and baselessly accused it of being weaponized against him called the DOJ dirty, no-good bastards during the gathering, according to two people in the room who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private discussions. House Republicans have previously pledged to aggressively go after the weaponization of government following Trumps conviction in Manhattan criminal court and voted to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt of Congress on Wednesday.

House Republicans across the ideological spectrum filed out of the hour-long gathering describing Trump as cheerfully boastful and confident in the meeting, injecting the enthusiasm members had hoped he would bring to unite a historically fractious conference.

Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, said Trump spoke about opening the Keystone Pipeline again and getting inflation down, cutting taxes.

He hit everything, he said after the meeting. Thats the most energized Ive ever seen him.

Ahead of the gathering, many Republicans said they hoped Trump would offer clarity on his policy agenda ahead of the November election. As they left the meeting, a majority of them said Trump delivered.

The guy articulates what the average American feels, said Rep. Marcus J. Molinaro, who represents a New York swing district.

Trumps first visit to Capitol Hill since leaving the White House comes two weeks after he became the first former president in U.S. history to be convicted of a crime for falsifying business records in his New York hush money case.

It is also his first visit to Capitol Hill since the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection in which a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol complex to stop the certification of Joe Bidens 2020 victory. Though Trump was not at the Capitol that day and weeks later skipped Bidens inauguration his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results are at the heart of some of the federal charges against him.

Congressional Republicans expected warm reception for the former president is the latest example of them tying their fate to Trump once again, even though some lawmakers are privately unenthusiastic about the prospect of Trumps return to Washington. Not all House Republicans attended the gathering.

House Republicans welcomed Trump to the meeting with a rendition of the Boehner birthday song a short and snappy jingle that former speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) instituted during his time in office. The lawmakers also gave Trump a bat from the annual Congressional Baseball Game, which was held Wednesday night. Trump turns 78 on Friday.

Trump praised House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for his leadership, briefly name checking Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) for trying to strip the gavel from him last month, an effort that ultimately resulted in a bipartisan vote to keep him as speaker.

Marjorie, be nice to him, Norman recounted Trump saying.

Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.) said Trump who has long falsely claimed that the 2020 election was stolen from him did not talk about potential election fraud but spoke about his poll numbers and insisted that Republicans must work hard to ensure they win in November.

According to the people in the room, Trump said Republicans need to do a better job messaging on abortion than they did in 2022 the year the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, an event that spurred a string of electoral wins and state referendums favoring Democrats. President Biden and his campaign have long warned that, if Trump is elected, abortion rights will be further stifled.

Molinaro said Trump specifically mentioned Republicans need to be very careful about showing respect for women and the choices that they have to make.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (Fla.)told reporters that the former president held a very serious discussion about how Republicans are going to talk about abortion in the upcoming election.

President Trump reiterated his perspective that this is a state issue. He thought that gave members who have different views on this issue in our conference, an ability to really localize it rather than having to talk about it in the broadest of national terms, he said.

On the presidential race, according to those in the room, Trump said his candidacy expands the map of battleground states to include New Mexico, New Jersey, Virginia and Minnesota all states considered favorable to Democrats in past election cycles.

Trump also said tariffs on imports from foreign nations would be a central part of his agenda if given a second term, noting his plans to use them as a national security tool. He also complained about the high cost of oil and claimed he was tougher on Russia and Nordstream 2 sanctions than President Biden. He also vowed to issue stricter tariffs on China and Venezuelan oil.

A handful of moderate Republicans representing swing districts skipped the gathering to attend committee hearings instead.

Trump at one point gleefully pointed out that a majority of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach him after the Jan. 6 insurrection retired or lost their reelection bids. Reps. David G. Valadao (Calif.) and Dan Newhouse (Wash.) are the only two House Republicans who voted to impeach who are still in office.

During the meeting, Trump made clear he recalled that he never loved a congressman from California for their impeachment vote, which Republicans understood to be a swipe against Valadao. Valadao did not attend the meeting, but Newhouse was present.

Of the 16 House Republicans who represent districts Biden won in 2020, five Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Pa.), Young Kim (Calif.), David Schweikert (Ariz.), Michelle Steel (Calif.) and Valadao do not appear to have publicly endorsed Trump.

Schweikert attended the meeting, but repeatedly skipped the opportunity to endorse Trump, saying he has kept to the tradition of endorsing the GOP nominee for after the convention is held in July. He said he was actually pleased that Trump mainly spoke about issues like the economy and inflation and did not spend much time discussing his criminal investigations.

At one point in the meeting, Trump also complained that pop star Taylor Swift endorsed President Biden in the 2024 election, a falsehood that gained traction in far-right circles earlier this year. Swift has not endorsed either candidate.

The Biden campaign has latched onto Trumps first return to the Capitol since the insurrection, releasing a campaign ad running Thursday across battleground states reminding voters of the violence that day.

Today, the instigator of an insurrection is returning to the scene of the crime. January 6th was a crime against the Capitol, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the former House speaker, said in a statement on behalf of the Biden campaign. With his pledges to be a dictator on day one and seek revenge against his political opponents, Donald Trump comes to Capitol Hill today with the same mission of dismantling our democracy.

After rallying House Republicans, Trump will meet Senate Republicans on their turf. In a meeting invitation obtained by The Washington Post, Senate Republicans were told to expect to hear directly from President Trump about his plans for the summer and to also share our ideas for a strategic governing agenda for 2025.

A majority of Senate Republicans are expected to meet with Trump at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.). McConnells attendance will mark the first time he and Trump have spoken since shortly after the 2020 election. McConnell broke with Trump over his refusal to accept the 2020 election results then and over the Jan. 6 riot, for which McConnell called Trump practically and morally responsible. But he did not vote to convict Trump after the impeachment trial.

Of the four GOP senators still in office who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, only Sen. Bill Cassidy (La.) said he is likely to attend the meeting Thursday. Sen. Mitt Romney (Utah) said he is not attending, while Sens. Susan Collins (Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (Alaska) said they had scheduling conflicts.

Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said he doubted the meeting would get too in the weeds on policy, but instead focus more on politics, messaging and rallying together ahead of the election.

Its the first time weve all been together with him since he was president, certainly the first time a large group of us have been with him since the conviction, and I would expect hed receive a lot of unifying messages, he said. I would expect it will be a very encouraging day for him.

correction

An earlier version of this story incorrectly said Trump was the first U.S. president convicted of a federal crime. He was convicted of state crimes. This story has been updated.

Theodoric Meyer contributed to this report.

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Trump slams Justice Department in meeting with congressional Republicans - The Washington Post

The 2024 presidential election starts out in our forecast as a toss-up. While former President Donald Trump has a lead in most key swing states, they are close enough that a small amount of movement or the polls being a little too favorable to Republicans could result in President Joe Bidens reelection. Right now, Biden is favored to win in XXX out of 1,000 simulations of how the election could go, while Trump wins in XXX of our simulations. In XXX simulations, no candidate wins a majority of Electoral College votes, which would throw the election to the House of Representatives.

Our forecast launches just a week and a half after Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in connection to a scheme to pay hush money to a porn star during the 2016 election. Since May 30, he has lost ground in the polls, with his national margin in 538s polling average falling from +1.7 to +1.0 as of Monday at 1 p.m. Eastern. Our forecast today thinks there is more room for Biden to improve, with economic and political fundamentals indicators pulling his predicted margin in the national popular vote up from -1.0 to +2.3 points. But he still lags in the key swing states, with his margin at just 1 point in Pennsylvania, the likeliest state to tip the Electoral College to either candidate, well within our uncertainty interval. And with five months left until Election Day, there is still a lot of room for the polls to change, as indicated by the 3-in-10 chance of either Trump or Biden winning a landslide of more than 350 electoral votes come Nov. 5.

538s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign fundamentals, such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. Its not meant to call a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win. Check out our methodology to learn exactly how we calculate these probabilities.

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Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? - FiveThirtyEight

Donald J. Trump flew into Washington last summer in a state of misery. He was there for his criminal arraignment, and he told associates afterward that the city was disgusting. He could feel Washingtons hostility, aides said.

On Thursday, three and a half years after a throng of his supporters whipped up by his false claims of a stolen election attacked the Capitol, Mr. Trump returned to the nations capital under much different circumstances to flex his dominance over a political and business establishment that has been forced to come to terms with him.

The former president is now the Republicans presumptive presidential nominee against President Biden, after vanquishing several primary rivals, raising hundreds of millions of dollars in recent months and rallying a wide range of Republicans behind him in denouncing his recent criminal conviction in Manhattan as evidence of a weaponized justice system.

Mr. Trumps meetings with lawmakers including Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader who denounced him on the Senate floor weeks after the violent attack on the Capitol by the pro-Trump mob on Jan. 6, 2021 were the starkest examples of how an establishment that still hates him has accepted his potential return to office. After years of hoping that someone else could step up to lead its party, that establishment is gradually submitting to the reality of the 2024 campaign.

Theres high anticipation here and great excitement, Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Wednesday before Mr. Trumps visit, which was his first appearance on Capitol Hill since the Jan. 6 attack.

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Trump Returns to Washington With Renewed Grip on the G.O.P. - The New York Times

In 2016, J.D. Vances best-selling memoir, Hillbilly Elegy, made him one of Americas leading interpreters of Trumpism, offering a personal narrative of populisms origins in working-class disarray.

In 2024, as a first-term United States senator from Ohio, Vance is arguably Americas leading Trumpist: a staunch ally of Donald Trump, a leading critic of the establishment consensus (or what remains of it) in both foreign and domestic politics, a potential vice-presidential candidate and a likely populist agenda-setter for a second Trump term.

The Vance of eight years ago was read with appreciation and gratitude by Trump opponents looking for a window into populism. The Vance of today is despised and feared by many of the same kind of people. His transformation is one of the most striking political stories of the Trump era, and one thats likely to influence Republican politics even after Trump is gone.

I've known Vance since before he assumed either of these identities. For this conversation, I spoke to him about how he sees his own evolution, his relationship to the American elite and to Trump himself, his views on populist economics and Americas support for Ukraine. He also offered a combative (and, to my mind, fundamentally unsupported and unpersuasive) defense of Trumps conduct after the 2020 election. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

J.D., the first time I realized that your book, Hillbilly Elegy, was going to be a phenomenon was August of 2016. I was in Rockland, Maine, in a cozy little tourist bookstore. I tried to buy the book for my wife, and they said, Oh, we had four or five copies and they all sold out in the last week.

Looking back, almost certainly most of the people who bought the book in that little bookstore were educated liberals baffled by the Donald Trump phenomenon, who liked your book not just for its literary merits, but also because they felt like here was a guy who was sympathetic to people voting for Trump, but who was also at that time vehemently opposed to him.

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Opinion | J.D. Vance on Where Hed Take the Republican Party - The New York Times

We want to try something a little different this week and delve into a single motion filed in Donald Trumps classified documents case in Florida. We thought it might be useful to explore how it informs the larger legal and political strategies Trump has used trin all of the criminal matters he is facing.

The motion, filed on Monday night, makes a weighty accusation.

It claims that prosecutors working for the special counsel, Jack Smith, who brought the indictment, failed to properly preserve the evidence at the heart of the case: the 45 boxes of documents the F.B.I. seized two years ago during a search of Mar-a-Lago, Trumps private club and residence in Florida.

Trumps lawyers also made a big request of Judge Aileen Cannon, who is handling the case. They asked her to dismiss the charges altogether or, barring that, to do something that would have the same effect: toss out the evidence found during the Mar-a-Lago search, including the trove of 32 classified documents that Trump has been charged with removing from the White House.

In the broadest sense, the motion takes aim not at the strength of the charges Trump is facing, but rather at the integrity of the underlying inquiry.

Its an effort to knock out the foundations of the case and, as such, is part of a barrage of similar motions that his lawyers have launched against the investigation and the investigators.

Trump has for decades conflated legal problems with public relations fights. And that approach is one his entire legal apparatus appears to have embraced since he was first indicted in New York in March 2023.

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How One Move Illustrates Trump's Tactics - The New York Times

When former President Donald J. Trump was convicted in his New York criminal trial, it took Gov. JB Pritzker of Illinois about 19 minutes to fire off a statement calling him a felon, a racist, a homophobe and a grifter.

Only one other Democratic governor issued a statement that night about Mr. Trumps conviction, and the Biden campaigns response which came one minute after Mr. Pritzkers focused on what Mr. Trump would do as president rather than on the verdict.

Since then, as the Democratic Party and the Biden campaign have wrestled with how to wield the conviction to their advantage, Mr. Pritzker has emerged as the chief amplifier of Mr. Trumps felon status.

Unlike other top surrogates who have followed Mr. Bidens lead and kept the focus on Mr. Trumps policies rather than his conviction, Mr. Pritzker has blazed his own trail of Trump insults to great cheers from fellow Democrats who are hungry to attack.

I cant mince words when it comes to talking about who Donald Trump is, Mr. Pritzker said in an interview on Wednesday. Its important, I think, for people to really refocus on the idea that: Do they really want a president who is a felon who faces jail time?

Mr. Pritzkers aggressive approach comes with a warning for his fellow Democrats. In a fiery keynote speech last weekend at the Wisconsin Democratic Partys convention in Milwaukee, he compared the party to the proverbial frog that does not realize the pot of slowly boiling water it sits in will soon be deadly.

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JB Pritzker, the Democrat Who Isnt Afraid to Call Trump a Felon - The New York Times