Daily Archives: April 6, 2024

Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian political and military officials could have a special tribunal set up by the EU and Ukraine.

The EU Justice Commissioner Didier Reynders says there are "two main options are being considered: an international court based on a multilateral agreement or a simplified solution based on a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and the Council of Europe".

In addition, a special transfer mechanism will be created, to transfer cases from Ukrainian courts to this new court. The Netherlands expressed its readiness to host the court, in addition to the International Centre for the Prosecution of the Crime of Aggression against Ukraine (ICPA), which is already operational.

Reynders believes that the establishment of the tribunal is the last step: "The next step is a matter of political will. It will only start at the beginning of next year, and by the end of the year it could be a reality."

Russia using the tactic of "repeated attacks".

Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure continue in Ukraine. On Friday, several missiles hit residential areas in the southeast.

At least four people are reported dead and 20 wounded, including children, and journalists arrived on the scene. Russian forces are believed to have again employed the tactic of "repeated strikes", when a new missile hit the site of a previous attack just as rescue equipment was arriving and starting work.

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EU and Ukraine explore special tribunal for Putin and war officials - Euronews

The conspiracy theories hit my phone before I even knew what they were about.

"Its a false flag."

"Its a covert U.S. op."

It was the night of March 22 and I was pulling into Kyiv on the long trip from the Polish border. The connection was patchy. I had to scroll back through the sound and fury of social media to find out what was happening: shooters in an upmarket Moscow mall were slaughtering civilians. Dozens were already dead. The former Russian President, Medvedev, was already blaming Ukraine.

Though ISIS quickly took all responsibility in the coming days, and though the Americans had publicly warned the Russians an attack was coming, Russian propaganda has only increased claims that Ukraine and the West were responsible. There has even been a video on Russian news showing the head of the Ukrainian national security council claiming Ukraine would be arranging more such fun in Russia. The video was an AI deep fake. The Ukrainians I met thought the propaganda predictableof course Putin would push these conspiracy theories and use the atrocity to further attack Ukraine. In the next days the attacks on Ukrainian civilians and energy systems were particularly bad. Russia used the terror attack to fuel more terror.

But I wondered how people inside Russia would react. Would they be persuaded by the Kremlin propaganda? Could one, and was it worth, communicate the truth to them? After all the terrorist attack is a moment of potential vulnerability for Putin: the supposed strongman who promises to keep his people safe, who does so much to insulate Moscow elites from the consequences of war, has allowed a massive terror attacks to take place in an elite Moscow shopping mall.

Two weeks since the atrocity some polls show a majority of Russians say they agree with the government line that Ukraine and the West were behind the attack. But polls can be difficult in a dictatorship. Other studiesby the same researchershave shown that many Russians will often go along with whatever Putin tells them, saying that the government is right, solely because it is the government and it has power.

Read More: Putin's Myths About Ukraine, Debunked

When I lived in Russia in the 2000s, I was always struck how people could hold different versions of truth at the same time, revealing them depending on how private the conversation was (or how much had been drunk). In the 2000s there were several such terrorist atrocities. In private Russians would often speculate that the Kremlin itself was behind themand Putin certainly used these moments as an excuse to introduce harsher rule and wars. Some even speculated that the Kremlin itself put out the conspiracy that it was behind terrorist attacksits better for Putin to seem murderous but all powerful, than so weak he can allow terrorists to murder easily around Moscow. In a political system as murky as Russias, such multi-layers of conspiracies flourish. But that also means that its easy for the Kremlin to push conspiracy theories, including the latest one.

If what you say you think is less about the truth and more about signifying your loyalty, then perhaps a better way to explore the relationship between propaganda and the Russian people is not polling, but looking at the dynamic between propaganda and behaviour, both physical and discursive (what people do and how people talk).

In a new report for Filter Labs that I have been advising on, data scientists fused Russian economic, social, and online discursive data. They found there were vulnerabilities to the Kremlins propaganda.

Take the issue of inflation. Inflation is rising hard in Russia. Costs for cars, for example, have gone up 15% since 2022. While Russian propaganda pushes out stories saying about great salary levels, online discourse shows that people feel their salaries are insufficient. Because of the lack of belief in the future of the currency, people are taking out a high amount of debt, thinking it can be paid back cheaply later: household debt has been increasing 17% in 2023. Government propaganda encourages people to save and not take on more debt; however, peoples behaviours shows that they dont buy this.

Even when government campaigns are successful, they struggle for momentum. For example, Russian propaganda has been pushing stories about how wonderful the Russian medical care is- despite problems with quality medicine since the start of the war. Such propaganda campaigns work for a few weeks, but then the conversation around this topic on social media becomes negative, and the Kremlin tries to drive it up again. Likewise with mobilisation: the Kremlin pushes campaigns promoting recruiting soldiers, the sentiment online to the policy goes up for a few weeks, before going negative again.

This pattern shows how important it is to the Kremlin to control behaviour and the tenor of discourseand how it struggles to keep control. Perhaps this is the best way to approach public opinion in Russia. Rather than about belief it should be measured in the extent to which the Kremlin can get people to agree to parrot the official narratives. Indeed the less they believe the lies yet repeat them, the more in control the Kremlin is. This need for control goes deep for Kremlin elites: they worry about losing it in the way the Soviet leadership did in the late 1980s.

That was always the threat the Alexey Navalny posed to the Kremlin. There was little surprising about his videos about Kremlin corruptioneveryone assumes officials are corrupt. What was powerful was the way he dared to say the unsayable. So powerful the Kremlin had to kill him.

With Navalny gone who else can deliver such campaigns that question the Kremlins grip? Is it time for the West to try them instead? Such campaigns are not about persuading Russianstruth in and of itself plays little role in this system. Its about showing the Kremlin it has less control than it hopes over the information space.

We should view information the same way we see military production, sanctions or drone strikes. When Ukrainian drones hit Russian oil refineries, they are signaling that Russia doesnt have control over its main sources of profit. If Ukraines allies were to show that we have the resolve to outproduce and sanction Russia effectively, Moscow would start to change its calculations around the risks its war involves.

If we show that the Kremlin cant keep its grip on what people say and do in Russia, they will also start to think about whether the risk is worth it. Sadly, with the exception of Ukraines strikes on Russian oil refineries, we are currently unable or unwilling to do any of the above. The Kremlin is outproducing us militarily; sanctions are weakly enforced; the Kremlins hold over the information space does unchallenged. Putin will calculate accordingly.

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Do Russians Believe Putin's Propaganda? | TIME - TIME

For the past 14 years, a panel of United Nations experts has regularly reported on North Koreas expanding nuclear and missile programs and its efforts to defy U.N. Security Council sanctions. Their latest report, on March 7, offers 615 pages on North Koreas activities, including 58 suspected cyberattacks on cryptocurrency-related companies between 2017 and 2023, netting about $3 billion to fund development of weapons of mass destruction. But now these eyes and ears have been removed.

In a U.N. Security Council vote on March 28, Russia vetoed an extension of the panels work, which it had previously supported. China abstained, and 13 other members voted for it. As a result, the panel that monitored the sanctions against North Korea is to expire at the end of this month, and the rest of the world will know even less than it does now about North Koreas quest.

This was a gift from Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, undermining sanctions that the United Nations has imposed in recent years. More than that, it suggests yet another setback again, perpetrated by Russia to the post-Cold War struggle to curtail the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

Mr. Putin is paying back North Korea for sending an estimated 10,000 containers of weapons and ammunition to Russia for use in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, filling three major storage depots near the front lines of the war, amounting to more than 3 million rounds. South Koreas defense minister has said North Koreas weapons factories are working around-the-clock to manufacture artillery shells for Russia. North Korean ballistic missiles have been fired by Russia at Ukrainian cities. The Financial Times, examining satellite photographs, reported that Russian vessels are delivering oil to North Korea in defiance of the sanctions, including at least five tankers in March, the first since the United Nations imposed a strict cap on oil transfers in 2017. Mr. Putins foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, visited Pyongyang March 25 through 27 in a bid to deepen cooperation, his agency announced. A visit by Mr. Putin is expected this year.

Six U.S. presidents have tried to restrain North Koreas nuclear and missile program, largely without success. After the failed Hanoi summit with President Donald Trump in 2019, Mr. Kim appears to have given up any hope of normalization with the United States, accelerating the pace of his armament effort while deepening ties with Moscow.

Russia has thrown him a lifeline. But what if he wants more than just oil and a helpful veto at the United Nations? There is a worrisome possibility that he could seek assistance with nuclear weapons and missile technology from Russia. The director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, warned Congress recently that Russias needs could undermine long-held nonproliferation norms. Siegfried Hecker, the former director of Los Alamos National Laboratory, has argued that Mr. Putin is breaking down the global nuclear order that existed for more than 70 years, including the concerted efforts (which Russia once supported) to control the spread of nuclear weapons. He has pointed out that North Korea might seek from Russia nuclear weapons test results. The Soviet Union conducted 715 nuclear tests, and North Korea has carried out only six. Even more unsettling, North Korea might ask Russia for information about missile or warhead designs or most worrisome fissile material for fueling warheads.

China is North Koreas major trading partner, and although it voted for some U.N. Security Council sanctions, its banks have been complicit in violating them. Pressing China hard to restrain North Korea seems unlikely to succeed now, given all the other tensions between the United States and China. It is not yet certain how China will view Russias new coziness with Mr. Kim. But it is certain that Mr. Kims boisterous demonstration of his missiles will continue to unsettle U.S. allies Japan and South Korea. On Tuesday, Mr. Kim attended the launch of a new intermediate-range ballistic missile purportedly with a hypersonic glide vehicle. He has also announced that North Korea will switch to solid-fuel missiles, which are faster to launch.

The loss of the monitoring panel can be repaired, perhaps by establishing a new one supported by the Group of Seven. But the larger challenge is to come up with a new and effective strategy to deal with North Korea. U.S. policy has wavered between drift, incentives, Mr. Trumps failed summitry and back to drift. As always in the atomic age, the danger is of disastrous miscalculation and misperception in a confrontation. Containing the danger is now even harder, as Mr. Putin with a permanent Security Council seat transforms Russia from a global actor that exercised at least a basic level of responsibility on some issues into a rogue state that makes common cause with the worlds worst regimes.

The rest is here:

Opinion | Putins Russia throws a lifeline to North Korea - The Washington Post

More than two weeks before terrorists staged a bloody attack in the suburbs of Moscow, the U.S. government told Russian officials that Crocus City Hall, a popular concert venue, was a potential target, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter.

The high degree of specificity conveyed in the warning underscores Washingtons confidence that the Islamic State was preparing an attack that threatened large numbers of civilians, and it directly contradicts Moscows claims that the U.S. warnings were too general to help preempt the assault.

The U.S. identification of the Crocus concert hall as a potential target a fact that has not been previously reported raises new questions about why Russian authorities failed to take stronger measures to protect the venue, where gunmen killed more than 140 people and set fire to the building. A branch of the Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the attack, the deadliest in Russia in 20 years. U.S. officials have publicly said the group, known as Islamic State-Khorasan, or ISIS-K, bears sole responsibility, but Russian President Vladimir Putin has tried to pin the blame on Ukraine.

The attack has further dented the image of strength and security that the Russian leader seeks to convey and exposed fundamental weaknesses in the nations security apparatus, which has been consumed by more than two years of war in Ukraine. Domestically, Putins operatives appear more concerned with silencing political dissent and opposition to the president than rooting out terrorist plots, according to analysts and observers of Russian politics.

The Russian leader himself publicly dismissed U.S. warnings just three days before the March 22 attack, calling them outright blackmail and attempts to intimidate and destabilize our society.

The U.S. officials familiar with the information that Washington shared with Moscow spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations and intelligence. A spokesperson for the National Security Council declined to comment for this report. Previously, the NSC has acknowledged that the United States conveyed information about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow but did not say that Crocus City Hall was named as a possible target.

A Kremlin spokesperson did not respond to questions from The Washington Post about the Crocus City Hall warning. But on Tuesday, Sergei Naryshkin, the head of Russias Foreign Intelligence Service, told reporters in Moscow that the information the United States shared was too general and did not allow us to fully identify those who committed this terrible crime, according to the state-run Interfax news agency.

Naryshkin said that in response to the U.S. intelligence, Russia took appropriate measures to prevent an attack. But video from the scene of the slaughter shows the gunmen facing no significant resistance. Russian media has reported that specialized police units did not arrive until more than an hour after the shooting started, and then waited more than 30 minutes before entering the building, by which point the assailants had already escaped.

While Washington routinely shares information about possible terrorist attacks with foreign countries, under a policy known as the duty to warn, it is unusual to give information about specific targets to an adversary, officials and experts said. Doing so risks revealing how the United States obtained the intelligence, potentially putting clandestine surveillance activities or human sources at risk.

But the information that pointed to an attack on the concert hall also signaled a potential danger for Americans in Russia. On March 7, the U.S. Embassy publicly announced that it was monitoring reports that extremists have imminent plans to target large gatherings in Moscow, to include concerts, and advised U.S. citizens to avoid large gatherings over the next 48 hours.

The United States shared its information with Russia the day before that public warning, according to people familiar with the matter. Naryshkin said U.S. intelligence agencies gave the information to the FSB, Russias state security service.

Under the duty to warn policy, the United States has also recently shared terrorism information with another adversary Iran. In January, U.S. officials warned that the Islamic State was planning to carry out attacks in the country, according to U.S. officials, who said the intelligence was specific enough that it might have helped Iranian authorities disrupt twin suicide bombings that killed at least 95 people in the city of Kerman. The Islamic State, which views Irans majority Shiite Muslim population as apostates, attacked a gathering of thousands of mourners as they commemorated the fourth anniversary of the death of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a U.S. drone strike in Iraq in 2020.

The Wall Street Journal first reported the U.S. warning to Iran.

Despite the lack of effective security at Crocus City Hall, there are indications that the Russian government, at least initially, took seriously Washingtons warning which included information about Islamic State plans to attack a synagogue, according to one U.S. official. The day after Moscow received that information, the FSB announced that it had prevented an Islamic State attack on a synagogue in Moscow.

Islam Khalilov, 15, who said he was working in the concert halls coat check on the night of the attack, said that Crocus staff had been told about the possibility of a terrorist attack, not long after the March 7 public warning. We were warned there could be terrorist attacks and we were instructed in what to do and where to take people, Khalilov said in an interview with Dmitry Yegorov, a well-known Russian sports journalist, that was posted on YouTube. Khalilov said there had been stricter security checks at the venue, including with trained dogs.

Why security wasnt increased and sustained after the initial warning remains unclear. Its possible that Russian security services, seeing no attack materialize in the days soon after March 7, assumed the U.S. information was incorrect and let their guard down, some of the U.S. officials speculated.

Putin publicly ridiculed terrorism warnings from what he deemed a number of official Western structures during a meeting with top FSB officials on March 19. You are well aware of them, so I will not go into details at this point, Putin said, according to an official Kremlin transcript.

Putin emphasized that the FSBs most important job was in Ukraine, as part of what he euphemistically called Russias special military operation. Putin equated Ukrainian forces with terrorists and suggested that they posed a direct threat to Russia. The neo-Nazi Kyiv regime has also switched to terrorist tactics, Putin said, including attempts to recruit perpetrators of subversive and terrorist attacks targeting critical infrastructure and public spaces in Russia.

After Russian authorities apprehended suspects in the Crocus City Hall attack, Putin and other senior leaders claimed that Kyiv had hired the operatives and made plans for them to escape to Ukraine, allegations that U.S. and Ukrainian officials have rejected.

Russia has gratefully accepted assistance from the United States in the past. Twice during the administration of President Donald Trump, Putin thanked the Americans for sharing information that helped disrupt terrorist attacks in St. Petersburg, in 2017 and 2019.

Catherine Belton in London contributed to this report.

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U.S. told Russia that Crocus City Hall was possible target of attack - The Washington Post

Al Letson: From the Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX, this is Reveal. Im Al Letson. Cellphone calls from Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine. The calls reveal soldiers anger, fear, and frustration over the war and expose possible war crimes. They were intercepted by Ukrainian authorities and obtained by Associated Press investigative reporter, Erika Kinetz. We heard some of them on Reveal last year. Since then, Erika got more, including calls showing soldiers desperation as the war grinds on. Erika Kinetz: Whats interesting about these intercepts is the number of people who spoke openly about wanting out of the war. One of the men said he felt forgotten. Their lives are worth nothing to Moscow and they dont know what theyre dying for anymore. Al Letson: For some Russian soldiers, theres a way out of the war, an underground network run by fellow Russians to help soldiers escape both the battlefield and also harsh treatment from the Russian military. But even far away from the war zone, it can be hard to find a safe haven. For this episode, were partnering once again with the Associated Press. With support from the Pulitzer Center, we go inside a secretive operation to undermine President Vladimir Putins war machine and save lives. And a note before we start, this weeks show contains descriptions of graphic violence and may not be appropriate for all listeners. Heres Erika Kinetz. Erika Kinetz: This past January, Ivan Chuvilyaev got an encrypted message. Ivan lives in exile in Spain. Hes a Russian anti-war activist and this message was from a man who said he was a soldier in the Russian army. Hed spent nearly six months on the frontlines in Ukraine and was fed up. Ivan messaged back, Lets talk. Ivan Chuvilyaev: I asked him to be calm and not to be afraid of me. I told him, Well, all right. Tell me the whole story, how it happened, how it started, how it finished. Erika Kinetz: The man told Ivan he was born in a former Soviet Republic in Central Asia. And that before the war, he was living in Russia as a migrant worker. Ivan Chuvilyaev: Hes older than any soldier in the army could be. Hes more than 50 years old. Erika Kinetz: He said that after Putin ordered the full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022, he started seeing signs plastered everywhere around St. Petersburg on buses and billboards. Ivan Chuvilyaev: The major thing in these billboards is that they are promising fast and big money to anybody who will sign the contract with Russian Minister of Defense. Erika Kinetz: At this point, the man knew little about the war other than the propaganda in the Russian media. And he was struggling to support his son who was studying in a prestigious university so he thought this could be an easy way to make a lot more money than he could as a manual laborer. Ivan Chuvilyaev: Most of people, I would say, who signed the contract for the last year primarily, they signed it because they needed money. Erika Kinetz: Once he got to Ukraine, he realized hed been misled. It was not a way to make easy money. It was a slaughterhouse. Ivan Chuvilyaev: The most common word they use when theyre talking about their experiences, they were [inaudible 00:03:46] up because they were told one thing and they faced simply another thing. Erika Kinetz: The man on the phone with Ivan was on leave in Russia from frontline duty and he wanted out. He did not want to go back to Ukraine. Ivan Chuvilyaev: Of course, everyone asks, Why did you go there? Why did you sign the contract? But unfortunately, Russian officials are quite talented in tricking and in lying. Erika Kinetz: Ivans job is to help Russian soldiers and other men facing military service escape. Ideally, to get to other countries. The name of his group is Get Lost and its co-founder is Grigory Sverdlin. Grigory Sverdli: There is a lot of desperation. People do not see how this can end. People decide to desert facing 15 years in jail, by the way. Erika Kinetz: Grigory was a prominent homeless advocate in St. Petersburg who became a harsh critic of Vladimir Putins war in Ukraine. Facing possible arrest, he fled Russia to the Republic of Georgia where he launched Get Lost in September 2022. Its literal name in Russian is Idite Lesom, or go through the forest. But as Grigory explains, that phrase has different meanings depending on your audience. Grigory Sverdli: First meaning is, Get lost. Go [inaudible 00:05:12] yourself. Thats message to Russian authorities, obviously. And the second meaning is, Hide in the forest, and thats the message we are sending to all of the people who do not want to go to Russian army or want to desert from Russian army. Erika Kinetz: Get Lost operates a channel on the popular messaging app, Telegram. Thats how most people contact them, including that soldier who is trying to pay for his sons college. In his calls with the man, Ivan encouraged him to leave Russia as quickly as possible and return to his home country. But in the chaos of war, things can sideways quickly and soldiers can just disappear. Ivan Chuvilyaev: And he told me, Well, I will think about it. I will make my decision and go back to you, and he didnt. Erika Kinetz: This was the last time Ivan heard from the man. Get Lost says it supported more than 22,000 Russians who want to avoid going to war. More and more, the group is being asked to help active-duty soldiers who want to get out. I wanted to get a fuller picture of how this underground railroad works. How do groups like Get Lost help Russian soldiers defect from the front lines of the war and what does life look like for them once theyre out? So I traveled to Kazakhstan. Thats where I met an officer well call Yevgeny. Ivan Chuvilyaev: Yevgeny was one of our The very first clients who were professional military. He was an officer and he was one of the first guys who we helped to leave the frontline. As I remember, he entered military academy when he was a young boy, a teenager. Erika Kinetz: Yevgeny is a decorated war hero who has been celebrated on Russian state TV. He agreed to speak on condition of anonymity, fearing deportation and persecution of himself and his family back in Russia. By the time we meet up, its been about eight months since he deserted. I arrive at his apartment in the capital, Astana, together with a translator and video journalist. Its around 10:00 AM and hes just getting up. Its nice to meet you. Thank you for taking the time. The place stinks of cats and there are four guys sharing the apartment with only three chairs among them to sit on, three spoons to eat with. Everything feels temporary. Yevgeny sits in his bedroom next to a pile of coats on the floor that was serving as another guys bed and tells us about his time in Ukraine. He led an intelligence and reconnaissance platoon of around 15 men that was part of the invasion force. The deeper they got into Ukraine, the uglier things got. He says he didnt want to kill anyone but he also wanted to live. In Ukraine, Yevgeny saw things he cant forget, things he knows are wrong. He says Ukrainian prisoners of war were executed early on because the Russian military couldnt get them back to Russia and didnt want to build detention centers. Translator: Special people were chosen for this because a lot of others refused. People with a special, so to speak, psyche were appointed executioners. Erika Kinetz: By April 2022, Ukrainians were mounting a fierce resistance and the Russian army was pulling back from the outskirts of Kiev. In their hasty retreat, Yevgenys unit ran into an ambush. He says around 70 people from his brigade died that day. Yevgeny showed us a video the Ukrainian military released of the encounter. Theres no audio and the footage looks like a video game. Graphics of Russian and Ukrainian flags bobbed above the tanks. You can follow the battle. Then, it cuts to a magnified image of a Russian tank pluming smoke, two dead guys curled on the ground beside it. In the comments someones written, Very cool. The best sight in my life is to see how the Russians die, writes another. Whats it like for you watching that video? I mean, you were in that column and you know people who were dying in that fight. Whats it like watching that? Translator: Well, actually, I only watched it once and I did not want to watch it again. I dont want to look at my friends who were killed For what? Its painful. Many of my friends have died and these were really good guys who did not want to fight but there was no way out for them. Erika Kinetz: We spent more than five hours talking with Yevgeny. At one point, he rummages through a box filled with a few important things he brought with him when he fled. He cant find his medals of honor but he does find the certificates for military commendations. And then, he suddenly shoves everything back in the box. He seems ashamed. Yevgeny doesnt like to talk about seeing his friends die and he doesnt like to talk about the people he and his men killed either. When I press him, he tells a story of an encounter along the road to Kiev when his unit got stuck in a field outside of village. They stopped to repair their vehicles and he says two men approached who appeared to be armed. He ordered his sergeant to fire. Translator: People often ask me, Did you kill him? But who really knows? He shot. One man lay down. But did the man just fall over or did he wound him or kill him? Its unclear. Erika Kinetz: In May 2022, Yevgeny and three other soldiers were ordered to retrieve their units last drone which was stuck in a tree in Ukrainian territory. But this, for them, was basically a suicide mission. Theyd already lost one soldier here. Translator: We were sent to get it from the same place where my soldier died. For a month, we could not take his body out. He was just lying there. Erika Kinetz: There was just no way to get that drone and it was the last straw for Yevgeny. Hed already seen a lot of things he didnt agree with, lots of incompetence, lives wasted, and he didnt want to kill people. Yevgeny and the three soldiers came up with what they called Plan B. The sniper would do the shooting. Yevgeny would take the first bullet to his leg, then the comms guy in the thigh, and finally, the sniper himself would take a bullet to his arm. The fourth guy didnt want to get shot but he said hed stand by their story. So they go off into the forest ostensibly to get that drone. But instead of that, they get their tourniquets ready. Just dont miss, Yevgeny tells the sniper, Shoot into the soft part. Translator: First, they shot me. Then, they shot the comms guy in the leg. And then, the sniper looked at us and thought, Screw it. This is scary. He changed his mind after watching what happened to us. Its very painful. Imagine taking a metal bar and having a strong man like a powerlifter hammer it into your leg with all his strength. This is what it feels like. Erika Kinetz: His friends dragged him through the woods and he was evacuated that night. He shows me the scar on his leg. He likes to joke that he gave birth to himself. He says, No life begins without suffering. And as with childbirth, he went through intense pain to get a new life. Yevgeny was shipped back to Russia. He knew hed eventually be ordered back to Ukraine so he went into hiding and contacted the anti-war activists at Get Lost. Heres Ivan Chuvilyaev again. Ivan Chuvilyaev: Yevgeny is extremely brave person and he hates war. He doesnt want it. Erika Kinetz: With Yevgeny hiding in Russia, Ivan and Grigorys team set to work trying to get him out. Ivan Chuvilyaev: The only thing we can do here is providing information, clear, verified information. Grigory Sverdli: We create a route for them. All of the details discussed which documents you will need and what border you should cross. Erika Kinetz: We agreed not to disclose Yevgenys escape route but its one thats been used by other deserters. Yevgeny made it to Kazakhstan in early 2023. Back in Russia, authorities filed a criminal case, his relatives were questioned, and his apartment searched. Yevgeny took a lot of risks to make his dramatic escape but life in exile isnt what he was hoping for. This is common for a lot of deserters who remain in a perilous kind of limbo, living in hiding. Yevgeny doesnt have a regular job. Hes afraid of document checks, doesnt have a SIM card, a bank account, or a lease in his own name. Yevgeny and the other men I spoke with have watched deserters get deported from Kazakhstan back to Russia or seized by Russian forces in Armenia. Just this past February, a high-profile Russian defector, a former helicopter pilot turned up dead in Spain. His body riddled with bullets. Translator: There is no mechanism for Russians who do not want to fight, deserters to get to a safe place. Erika Kinetz: Yevgeny says, Helping Russian soldiers desert is one way for the international community to undermine Putins war in Ukraine. Translator: After all, its much cheaper economically to allow a person into your country, a healthy young man who can work than to supply Ukraine with weapons. Erika Kinetz: Hes applied for asylum in Western Europe and doesnt know what hell do when his savings run out. He would like to go to the United States or maybe use his military training to serve in a UN mission somewhere but its hard for him to draw a path to that place from his grungy apartment. Grigory says defectors like Yevgeny deserve a lot more support. Grigory Sverdli: These people made this very hard decision facing, I will repeat, 15 years in jail. So its a very big risk and these people have proven that they dont want to be a part of this war. Erika Kinetz: Many Russians who oppose Putins war have struggled to find new lives in other countries, including the United States and Europe. We went to Istanbul, Turkey last year to visit a network of safe houses. Activists were sheltering men evading the military and others. Educators, business professionals, artists all escaping Putins Russia. Eva Rapoport: So were in one of the co-living spaces. Since the beginning of the war, it is the second apartment we rented here in Istanbul. Erika Kinetz: Eva Rapoport is with the group Kovcheg, or Ark, which regularly partners with Get Lost. She told us this apartment housed up to 12 people who typically stay a few weeks until they find other accommodations. Many were hoping to build an exile community in Istanbul that would stand up in vocal opposition to Putin and the war. Eva Rapoport: I think its almost an obligation that being outside of Russia, we can exercise our freedom of speech, saying what we think about the events. We should be saying it openly and loudly for all the people in Russia who cannot do that. Erika Kinetz: But a year later, Eva says most of the people who fled to Turkey have had to move on to other countries because they were denied residency permits. She says very few could get visas for countries in the European Union or the United States. Eva Rapoport: There was hope that Istanbul could be some kind of hub for a Russian oppositionary culture, being this strategically located place. But now, this is all going away. Thats something that was not expected but it became our reality. Erika Kinetz: Despite lackluster support from the West and more violence and repression in Russia, Grigory and Ivan say theyre not backing down. Grigory Sverdli: The more successful Get Lost is getting, we get more and more dangers. But dignity is more important than safety and love to my country is definitely more powerful than fear. Erika Kinetz: This past February, Get Lost organized a special day to honor soldiers who make a bold stand. They posted videos like this one from a Russian army deserter. With his face blurred out, hes pleading to his comrades still fighting in Ukraine. He says, Dont be afraid to desert the Russian military because thats the path to a happy life. Ivan says, Get Lost is trying to redefine what it means to be a deserter. Ivan Chuvilyaev: It is quite a simple appeal, Leave the frontline. Be a deserter. Dont wait for anything because all these huge machine is working only on killing people. Just go. Erika Kinetz: From exile, Ivan thinks a lot about how Western countries could be rallying around military defectors. How working with Russians who oppose Putin is in the strategic self-interest of the West. Like during the Cold War when many people escaping from the Soviet Union were welcomed with open arms. Ivan Chuvilyaev: Lots of defectors, even KGB spies, didnt want to serve for criminals and killers and came to European states or to United States and gave up to local authorities. They were heroes. We should remember that. Al Letson: Erika Kinetz is a reporter with the Associated Presss Global Investigations Team. Our story was produced by Masho Lomashvili and Reveals Michael Montgomery. Both Russia and Ukraine have been less than forthright about how many soldiers have been killed in the war and thats brewing discontent among Ukrainians. Solomiia Hera: One may ask, My son died for Ukraine but Ukraine does not want to recognize his death. Al Letson: Thats coming up next. Youre listening to Reveal. From the Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX, this is Reveal. Im Al Letson. This week, were collaborating with the Associated Press for another look at the conflict in Ukraine. Some experts say its becoming a war of attrition but what does that mean in terms of human lives? We just heard about one officers decision to desert the Russian army and flee the country. That story came from AP Investigative reporter, Erika Kinetz, and shes with me now. So I wanted to ask you, what is the scale in terms of desertions in the Russian Army? Erika Kinetz: A number of signs indicate that a growing number of Russian soldiers want to get out of the war. Get Lost, the group that helped Yevgeny escape, has been getting record numbers of requests from people seeking to desert. More than 500 in the first two months of 2024. These days, around 30% of all requests for help are coming from active duty soldiers. A year ago, it was just 3%. Still, I think we should put this in the context of Russias overall troop strength. Russia has around 470,000 troops on the ground in Ukraine according to one leading think tank in London. And so, morale may be falling but Russias still got a lot of troops on the ground. Al Letson: So it sounds like there arent many deserters that are actually making it to the West and thats where a lot of them want to go. I would think that if you create incentives for soldiers to desert, like offering them support, it could be one way to deplete the Russian military. So why arent Western countries stepping up? Erika Kinetz: Its true. A lot of people do want to leave and very few people are getting in. So we got some data on this and found that fewer than 300 Russians got refugee status in the US in fiscal 2022. We cant say how many were soldiers. But we can say that in 2022, the number of asylum requests the US Department of Homeland Security got from Russians, nearly quadrupled to almost 9,000. France and Germany have also seen surges. Asylum requests from Russians were up more than 50% last year in France and more than doubled in Germany. But the deserters we spoke with, like many people in Russia, particularly in the armed forces, have passports that only allow them to travel within a handful of former Soviet states. So its hard for them to even get to places like France and Germany and America to claim asylum. I think also for a lot of people, Russian soldiers who desert just dont draw a lot of sympathy and Western countries havent really made up their minds as to whether theyre potential national security assets or threats. Are these guys spies, are they war criminals, or are they heroes? Al Letson: So you and your team made an effort to document the scale of the carnage of this war. What have you found? Erika Kinetz: I think itll probably take years before we can really get an accurate picture of how many people have died in this war. For now, we can say that Western intelligence estimates put the number of casualties on both sides at more than half a million. That kind of human toll has not been seen in Europe since World War II and the dead are transforming the landscape. You can see the scale of loss from satellite images and from the sky, the graves look the same on both sides of the front. Fields that were once empty are now just quilted with these patchworks of fresh tombstones. President Zelenskyy recently said that at least 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in this war. Thats less than half of what Washington has estimated but its much more forthright than Putin has been about Russian losses. Moscows silence hasnt stopped work being done by Mediazona, the independent Russian media outlet, and BBCs Russian service. Theyve confirmed the deaths of nearly 50,000 Russian soldiers whove been killed since the full-scale invasion. And they say that number probably captures just over half of the true death toll. Al Letson: The scale is just I dont know. Its hard to wrap your head around that number of people dying. Erika Kinetz: It is. Thats why we wanted to see what these cemeteries looked like from space and that is still only a fraction of the total numbers out there. Al Letson: I want to bring someone else into the conversation. Solomiia Hera is a Ukrainian reporter whos worked alongside Erika and helped count those graves in Ukraine. Hey, Solomiia. Solomiia Hera: Hi. Al Letson: So tell me I know that youve seen a lot of graves. What struck you the most? Solomiia Hera: So when I visited cemeteries, what struck me really is amount of rows of graves filled with Ukrainian flags, flowers, and personal belongings of young soldiers. And many of these soldiers were born after 2000. Al Letson: Yeah. So youre looking at all these gravesites for really young people whose lives really hasnt even gotten started. Solomiia Hera: Yeah. Exactly, and this is what is shocking. Al Letson: It sounds like talking publicly about the death toll in Ukraine is something of a taboo. How do ordinary people feel about that? Solomiia Hera: Indeed. It was a decision of Ukrainian government until lately, not to disclose number of casualties. For Ukrainian families, its very important to talk about their dead family members who died for the sake of Ukraine. But for regular Ukrainians, when what they read the news or what they see in cemeteries does not match with numbers provided by government, then the question arises, What for did soldiers die? And one may ask, My son died for Ukraine but Ukraine does not want to recognize his death. And therefore, some Ukrainian families feel its disrespectful towards the dead soldiers not to say the actual count. Al Letson: Erika, when people describe the conflict in Ukraine as a war of attrition, what does that really mean? Erika Kinetz: Yeah. Attrition is a nice word for something thats actually really very ugly. A war of attrition means that who prevails is increasingly shaped by who can tolerate higher losses. And by that measure, Moscow has a clear advantage. So I took a quick look at the demographics and Russia had 3.7 times more men of fighting age than Ukraine did in 2022. Thats according to data from the World Bank. The analysts Ive spoken with say that it will be very hard for Ukraine to outmatch Russias forces which have continued to grow in overall size despite hundreds of thousands of casualties without significant help from Ukraines international partners. Top needs that they flag are artillery ammunition and air defense capability. The failure of the US Congress to approve $60 billion in aid for Ukraine is not helping. Lack of long range artillery means that Ukrainian commanders have to push more people into the range of Russian fire to physically hold the front. Al Letson: Yeah. I mean, this sounds horrible but Vladimir Putin can just throw more bodies at the problem and it doesnt seem that he really cares about that. Erika Kinetz: Yeah. It seems like Putin knows that he can sustain higher losses than Ukraine can. Al Letson: That ties into, I guess, Ukraines belief that they should not tell what the number of dead are. Because if they say the actual number, its really clear that, for a lack of better term, its a dwindling resource, right? Erika Kinetz: Well, I think this has to be put into context. Saying how many people have died can be a real hit to morale so neither Ukraine nor Russia really wants the true number of war dead to be known. Thats the same for pretty much every war. I dont think theres transparency in wartime. And if you think of past wars, sometimes it takes decades for people to get the accurate data. Al Letson: Erika Kinetz is an investigative reporter for the Associated Press and Solomiia Hera is a reporter whos been working with the AP in Ukraine. Thank you both for coming in. Erika Kinetz: Thanks, Al. Solomiia Hera: Thank you. Al Letson: Coming up, Solomiia introduces us to a Ukrainian man who recovers war dead from the battlefield. He has a message for the parents of Russian soldiers. Oleksii Yukov: Why did you raise your children? For a bright future or for death? Al Letson: Thats ahead on Reveal. From the Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX, this is Reveal. Im Al Letson. We just heard about how both Russia and Ukraine are trying to keep a lid on the true death toll. Our next story is about a Ukrainian man whos all too familiar with the human cost of war. He leads a group of volunteer body collectors on an obsessive quest to put the souls of the military dead to rest. Before we start, a word of caution that this story contains descriptions of death that are graphic. Reveals Michael Montgomery takes it from here. Its nighttime and reporters for the Associated Press, including Solomiia Hera, are tearing across the Ukrainian countryside. Theyre chasing a mud-covered SUV with Red Cross emblems on its doors. Solomiia Hera: On the top of the car, there were black bags which we immediately recognized it was Yukov and his buddies. Al Letson: Yukov is Oleksii Yukov. Solomiia Hera: So we started driving after him but he was driving very rigidly and speeding up. It was in the middle of the night. He was certainly in a rush to unload these bodies and probably go back home to rest. Al Letson: From behind, Solomiia can see body bags bouncing on the roof of Yukovs SUV. Inside, there are more bodies. Eventually, Yukov steers off the road and into a clearing. He parks next to a white refrigerated truck marked with a red cross and the number 200. Thats military code for vehicles carrying the dead. Under the glare of headlights, men in flak jackets and helmets carefully lower the heavy bags down from the roof. There are a dozen bodies in all. The bodies are then loaded onto the refrigerated truck which will ferry them to a morgue. Yukov and his team will be back in the field tomorrow. Theyre civilians who comb through battlefields and bombed out buildings to gather the remains of Ukrainian and Russian fighters. They call their volunteer group, [foreign language 00:33:03] or Bridgehead. Their mission is to help the souls of the dead find rest. Its grisly dangerous work. Work that Yukov has become reluctant to talk about with the press because he feels that most reporters only seem interested in the gruesome side of his work. Solomiia assured him thats not the plan. Solomiia Hera: So it took us around six, seven months to set up interviews and we were still not sure if he would arrive to that interview. Al Letson: This is video footage from a camera that Yukov has strapped to his helmet. He and his colleagues are treading cautiously through the blasted ruins of a farmstead. Oleksii Yukov: Well, friends, this is the second day of the search for our dead soldiers here in this area. This is the village of Dovhenke, Kharkiv region, and this is the exact location of the soldier who died. Solomiia Hera: Yukov is very determined to find a missing body if one asks him so. At one time, he was contacted by a family of a missing person and that family knew the place of where the Ukrainian soldier died and they asked Yukov and his team to go on site and try to bring the body back home. Oleksii Yukov: And now, our group is going to the location. We have confirmed that the soldiers body could be in the cellar. Al Letson: Yukov has been texting with the mother of the missing Ukrainian soldier. His name is Oleksandr Hrysuk, Sasha to friends and family. The team works its way past shredded trees, a mangled tractor, empty artillery crates, and heaps of rubble. Any wrong step could trigger an anti-personnel mine or a buried mortar round. In fact, just a few weeks earlier, Yukov tripped a mine here. He lost an eye in the blast. Now, hes back again searching for Sasha. Oleksii Yukov: He was brought by his fellow soldiers to the cellar. The cellar has collapsed and the bodys lying there under the rubble. So we will now excavate and look for the guy. Al Letson: A slab of concrete is blocking the way in so a team member stabs at it with a big iron rod. Oleksii Yukov: We are breaking the slab now. We will haul it out and dig further because there is already some smell. There may be a body in there. Al Letson: Yukov climbs down into the darkness. His headlamp flashes left and right but he cant locate the body. All he can see is rubble and dirt. Just then, a gray tabby kitten comes from nowhere. It jumps on Yukovs shoulder and rubs against his cheek. Oleksii Yukov: A kitten came up to us and hes been hanging around this cellar. What a handsome cat. You came to us, yes, just like the souls who come by and wander next to us. Solomiia Hera: The kitten kept jumping on his shoulder and jumping to the one specific place. And Oleksii thought, Okay. Lets try to dig where the cat jumps. And they take their tools, they dig in, and they find the Ukrainian soldier hes been looking for. So in that way, he felt that the kitten was a soul of that soldiers, a soul who came to point his location. Al Letson: The team has been searching for Sasha for weeks with his mother anxiously awaiting the news. And now, they found what they think are his remains. Yukov sends the family a photo of a silver cross and chain they recovered in the basement. Sashas mother recognizes it instantly. She texts Yukov and thanks him and says his work is priceless. Its an island of gratitude in a sea of sorrow. Oleksii Yukov: I understand that we took away the last hope from her. A mothers hope to have her child come home, home alive. Al Letson: Yukovs phone buzzes all the time. Desperate relatives of fallen Ukrainian soldiers implore him to look for their sons, husbands, and brothers. Military units typically carry away their dead. But in the chaos of combat, its not always possible so theres a seemingly endless supply of work for Yukovs team. Oleksii Yukov: The bodys partially burned. The helmet is on the hat. The left lower leg is partially missing. Al Letson: They document each location and set of remains carefully. The bodies of Ukrainian soldiers are often returned to their families for burial. The bodies of Russian fighters are sometimes traded with the enemy for those of fallen Ukrainians. Yukov reckons his team has collected the remains of 1000 people since 2022. They post videos of their work on social media. Yukov wants to show fellow Ukrainians that their heroes are being cared for. And he also uses the videos to speak directly to Russian audiences in Russian to show them what this war is costing. Oleksii Yukov: What is it all for? Is it because one person has gone mad and decided that he could rule the whole world and destroy everyone who opposes him? Well, this is madness. Al Letson: Oleksii Yukovs dedication to the dead didnt start here. It goes back to his childhood and back to tragedies that devastated this part of Eastern Europe. In the early 1930s, the brutal policies of Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin triggered widespread famine. Around 4 million Ukrainians starved to death. Then came World War II. Ukraine was a vast combat zone, the Red Army against the forces of Nazi Germany. In the desperate fighting, both sides often buried their dead in mass graves if they had time for burials at all. More than half a century later, Yukov rode his bicycle to a nearby forest, the site of a big battle. He was just a kid. The ground around him was strewn with the wreckage of war. Oleksii Yukov: I began to figure out these were Soviet-style boots, not German. And Soviet belts and Soviet bullets. I realized that these were Soviet soldiers. There were hundreds of them. The whole forest was covered with bones. I started to collect them and put them in one place and I wondered, How could they be forgotten? Its someones grandfather, someones grandmother. So I started collecting the bones and this was my first encounter with war. Al Letson: From this time on, Yukov says he felt an intense connection with the dead. He says, as a boy, he used to dream about them at night. He sensed their spirits and felt a duty to help their souls find peace. Solomiia Hera: He said, These are humans and probably families of these dead bodies dont even know where their relatives are. Al Letson: Solomiia says that according to Ukrainian Orthodox tradition, a dead persons soul lingers among the living for 40 days. Solomiia Hera: But for a soul to be free and to be able to be calm, one needs to be buried properly with all the rituals and maybe prayers. So funerals is a very important part of Christian tradition and there is no way a person is not buried. Because then, the soul cannot find peace. Al Letson: Yukov found his life calling, bringing peace to forgotten bones in the forest. Before Russias invasion, he led a group of volunteers exploring the Ukrainian countryside for the unclaimed dead of World War II. Yukov figures hes helped gather the bones of more than 8,000 souls. Yukov is compact and muscular, a martial arts instructor by trade. Hes 38 and lives with his wife and child in the Eastern Ukrainian city of Slovyansk. He has a bushy beard but no mustache which makes him look a bit like an Amish farmer, except for his camouflaged combat helmet and orange-tinted sunglasses. Solomiia Hera: He looks like just a normal guy wearing a military uniform. Hes very calm. Hes very solid. Hes actually very pleasant to talk to. And also, he knows a lot about history. Nothing points me to the fact that for 30 years, hes been gathering the remains of the dead bodies. Al Letson: Another day, another battlefield. This time, Yukov and his team are recovering the remains of a Russian soldier. The body is at the bottom of a staircase in a bombed-out building. Russian forces sometimes booby-trap the bodies of fallen fighters so one of the team members ties a long sturdy strap around the ankle of the corpse. From a safe distance, Yukov counts to three. Then they haul in the strap moving the body just a few feet. Thats all it takes. Once theyve done this, they know its safe to move by hand. Since the beginning of the war, Yukov has only lost one man. A volunteer named Dennis who drove a car over an anti-tank mine. Before the war, Dennis was one of Yukovs kickboxing students. Another of Yukovs students is 27-year-old Artur Simeyko. Artur was 14 when he first met Yukov. Artur Simeyko: Getting to know him changed everything. Hes become a father, a friend, a brother to me. Hes taught me so many things. And now during the war, Im still learning from him. He became my spiritual teacher. Al Letson: Before Russias invasion, Artur helped Yukov search for the dead in the old World War II battlefields. When this new war came, Artur was ready again. Artur Simeyko: Everything I know comes from Oleksii about how to treat the dead. I learned about what happens if you treat the dead badly. You will get it back fast. When the war with Russia started, I was very calm towards the bodies of Russian soldiers. One should respect death. Al Letson: Being calm and respectful toward the remains of Russian soldiers is something that Solomiia says can challenge widespread perceptions in Ukraine. Solomiia Hera: War breeds collective hatred. So for many Ukrainians, it can be hard to see a dead Russian soldier as a human being. Al Letson: But Yukov teaches that once Russian soldiers have fallen, they belong to the world of the dead and they deserve a measure of dignity and honor. Solomiia Hera: There is a lot to learn from Yukovs philosophy of respecting the dead. He says, Please respect also the bodies of Russian soldiers. Al Letson: Late one night, Yukov and his team unload the bodies theyve collected from a combat zone near Bakhmut. He searches the pockets for identifying information. The bodies are in bad shape. But on one soldier, Yukov finds a neck chain with a dog tag. Oleksii Yukov: Heres an identifying sign. Its an ID badge and an Orthodox cross. The badge is made of aluminum. Its in poor condition so its hard to see. Ill try to clean it up a little. This is a Russian serviceman. How long have you been lying there? Three months maybe? Al Letson: Yukov takes detailed notes, making sure any possessions he finds on the Russian body stay with it. Solomiia Hera: It is also important for him to bring not only the body but the personal belongings of the body to their family. Because for families, its also something where very sacred and important. For example, if one is religious and they have a cross, its important for the family to have this cross of their son with them after. So hes taking care of every small detail or personal thing. Al Letson: With the APs camera rolling, Yukov grows angry about the scene before him. A line of 11 dead Russian soldiers and the leg of another, probably a Ukrainian soldier. In World War II, many Russians and Ukrainians came together to fight the Nazis. Oleksii Yukov: And now, since 2014, were collecting bodies again and we see the horrors of war again. War has one face which you see here. Its stupidity and death. And no matter what they call it, a special military operation or whatever, it doesnt change the essence. War has one face: death and stupidity and horror. And we dont need this war. Why did they come to us with this war? Al Letson: Yukov looks down at the men laid out on the night grass. Suddenly, he switches from speaking in Ukrainian to Russian. He has a message for the parents of dead Russian soldiers. Oleksii Yukov: I will tell them in Russian. Why did you raise your children? For a bright future or for death? Youre crazy. You carried this child in your womb. Do you remember how happy you were with every first step of his? How happy you were with every new word that your child said? And now, your Russian boys are lying here in Ukrainian soil. Why did you let them come here? You knew what this was all about, that they were going to kill. Al Letson: Its late. Yukov and his exhausted team prepare the bodies for transport to a morgue. The Russian soldiers will likely be bartered for the remains of Ukrainian soldiers. And as always, Yukov and his colleagues treat the enemy with respect. We are not fighting the dead, he says, Our weapon is humanity and a shovel. Thanks to reporter Solomiia Hera. That story was produced by Steven Smith. We have links to the Associated Presss amazing coverage of the war in Ukraine. Find them at our website at revealnews.org. Our lead producer for this weeks show is Michael Montgomery. Brett Myers edited the show. We had help from Hannah Levintova and Anna Chukur. Special thanks to AP editors Jeannie Ohm, Mary Rajkumar and Ron Nixon and reporter Volodymyr Yurchuk. Our show was supported by the Pulitzer Center. Nikki Frick is our fact checker. Victoria Baranetsky is our general counsel. Our production managers are Steven Rascon and Zulema Cobb. Score and sound designed by the dynamic duo, Jay Breezy, Mr. Jim Briggs and Fernando, my man, yo, Arruda. Our interim executive producers are Brett Myers and Taki Telonidis. Our theme music is by Camerado Lightning. Support for Reveal is provided by the Reva and David Logan Foundation, the Ford Foundation, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the Jonathan Logan Family Foundation, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the Park Foundation, and the Hellman Foundation. Reveal is a co-production of the Center for Investigative Reporting and PRX. Im Al Letson. And remember, there is always more to the story.

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Escaping Putin's War Machine - Reveal - Reveal from The Center for Investigative Reporting

He saw the northeastern city of Kharkiv, Ukraines second largest, as the most likely target for the main thrust of an assault. Kharkiv has come in for an especially ferocious battering and and large-scale Russian attacks have wrecked its power plants.

We know that Putin is preparing a new wave of mobilization and we reckon new counter-offensive operations by the Russians could start at the end of the May or the beginning of June. Of course, we have to be ready for this, Yermak said. We still critically need additional air-defense systems because without them it is impossible to for us to defend our cities, he added.

Yermak said more Patriot surface-to-air missiles are also needed to defend the front lines, where the Russians are causing massive damage, and some fear tilting the military balance, with aerial guided bombs.

The 1.5-ton bombs are a conversion of an old Soviet-era weapon and are delivered by fighter jets some 70 kilometers from the target then directed by a guidance system, using pop-out wings to glide toward its target. They were were used in the recent Russian offensive in the Donetsk region and played havoc with defenses at Avdiivka, a town in eastern Ukraine that fell to Russia last month.

But once again, the problem for us is of the time, says Yermak. I'd like to emphasize that it's a critical moment now. It's very important the package is approved this month, he added.

Asked about whether Ukraine will heed American pleas to avoid striking Russian oil facilities, Yermak avoided commenting directly. Zelenskyy last week said in an interview with the Washington Post that targeting Russian energy infrastructure is a legitimate military strategy.

Yermak expanded on that, saying that there has to be payback for what the Russians are doing to us. We must ruin their critical infrastructure as the only language they understand is force.

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Ukraine tells Trump to emulate Reagan as Putin readies major spring offensive - POLITICO Europe

Ukrainian drones, ducking Russian air defenses, yesterday hit three air bases Russia uses to bomb Ukraine. The drones reportedly hit half of 29 Sukhoi warplanes parked at Morozovsk base.

Pushing the bill up to hundreds of millions of dollars, Ukraine said its drones also destroyed three Tu-95MS bombers at Engels-2 base,and two Su-25 warjets at a third base. In response, Russia said only that its air defense downed a total of 53 Ukrainian drones approaching the three bases.

Over the last two years, Ukraine has used drones and rockets to sink one third of Russias warships in the Black Sea. Now, Ukraine is turning its drone power on land targets air bases, refineries and military factories deep inside Russia. That reach was demonstrated Tuesday when Ukrainian drones flew a record 800 miles east into Russia. They hit Russias third-largest oil refinery and a factory making Iranian-designed Shahed drones.

This weeks raids may be a taste of whats to come this year for Russias air force and air defenses. Ukrainian officials say this year they will produce thousands of long range drones and 1 million short range drones. Yesterday, German newspaper Bild reported that 10 Ukrainian factories will soon start producing Falcon-300 drones with ranges of 1,500 miles.

That is longer than a flight from Toronto to Miami. It would put within range 80 Russian military bases, including Olenya, an Arctic air base that launches Tu-95 MS strategic bombers against Ukraine. A Ukrainian source told Bild, Europes best selling newspaper: Missiles are a thing of the past drones are the future. Bild summarized the impact: Ein Schock fr Putin.

Last month, the crippling of Russias Black Sea fleet prompted President Putin to purge the high command of Russias Navy. Similarly, Russias air defense forces show scant sign of adapting fast enough to Ukraines drone war against land sites. In the last two months, Ukrainian drones have hit 15 Russian refineries, knocking offline about 15 percent of the nations refining capacity.

Last month, gasoline exports dropped in half. This month, diesel production is to drop by 20 percent. Yesterday, world oil prices topped $90 a barrel for the first time since October. Complicating repairs, Russias 40 largest refineries were rebuilt since the collapse of communism in 1991 with western technology. Due to war sanctions, this technology is now off limits to Russian companies.

The scale of recent attacks and the ineptitude of Russian air defenses were quite surprising, energy analyst Sergey Vakulenko wrote yesterday for the Carnegie Endowments Politika blog. The latest wave of attacks signifies a major shift in modern warfare. Navigational equipment, including solid-state inertial systems that are impervious to jamming and signal spoofing, is now affordable and abundant. He concludes: In a war of attrition, the odds are with the drones.

Two months ago, President Zelensky announced the formation of a separate branch of the military devoted to drones. Over the last two years, the number of Ukrainian drone factories has risen to 300, from a dozen before the war.

It is clear that drones in this war will be one of the decisive words for victory, and it must be a Ukrainian word, Ukrainian drones, a Ukrainian victory, Mr Zelensky said Monday night in his daily address to the nation. We need more drones and more effective Ukrainian drones.

Ukraines move toward long-range, locally produced drones comes after America and other donor nations asked Ukraine to not use their rockets against targets inside Russia. Giorgi Revishvili wrote Wednesday in the Atlantic Councils Ukraine blog: Drones are significantly cheaper to produce in large quantities than long-range missiles and require less infrastructure.

Ukrainian officials brush off protests that they should not bring the war into Russia. They say that Russia over the last two years has fired 4,630 Iranian-made Shahed drones at them. Ukraines prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, told Estonian Public Broadcasting last week: Russia continues its energy terror and just in the last weeks they destroyed more than six gigawatts of facilities in our energy [sector] in hydro energy, in coal power energy.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said Tuesday: Ukrainian strikes are a necessary component of Ukraines campaign to use asymmetric means to degrade industries that supply and support the Russian military.

Faced with waves of incoming drones, Russian authorities limit their public statements to citing numbers of drones shot down. They release little or no information on the impacts of the drones that get through. However, with columns of black smoke rising over refineries, air bases and military factories, it is clear to inhabitants of Western Russia that Ukraine is running roughshod over Mr. Putins red lines.

The attacks chip away at Mr. Putins image as the nations great protector. After this weeks attacks on Tatarstan, Governor Rustam Minnikhanov told companies they were on their own to defend themselves. Head of the republic for 14 years, he warned: Do not wait for the response of the air defense; it has other missions. We must find our own solution, every company, every municipality and every town.

Last nights failure of Russias air defense is reminiscent of the May 1987 flight of West German teenager Mathias Rust. Ducking Soviet air defenses, he flew his rented Cessna to Moscow from Finland, landing on a bridge in front of the Kremlin and taxiing to a stop on Red Square. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev used this humiliating stunt as a pretext to carry out the biggest purge of the Soviet military in 50 years. Four years later, the Soviet Union collapsed.

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'Ein Schock fr Putin': Ukraine Bombs Three Russian Air Bases, Then Vows To Send Its Drones Further Into Russia - The New York Sun