Daily Archives: February 5, 2024

Obama-era acting Solicitor General Neal Katyal on Sunday expressed his impatience at still waiting for a three-judge D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals panel to rule on Donald Trumps claim which it heard early January that he cant be prosecuted in the D.C. election subversion case because, he argues, he had total immunity for acts committed as POTUS.

If Trump loses his appeal, as is expected, he may take it to the U.S. Supreme Court. The trial could then be pushed to summer or fall, or even postponed until after the election, following which Trump could pardon himself or stop the prosecutions if he becomes the GOP nominee and wins back the White House.

I am officially now at the freakout stage. Ive resisted that for a long time, Katyal told MSNBCs Jen Psaki.

Psaki acknowledged, You dont typically freak out so thats important.

I think were now at the point, to use a different legal phrase, that justice delayed is justice denied, Katyal responded. I cant imagine a more compelling need for speed than the idea that American citizens deserve to know before the election whether a candidate for office is a felon and an insurrectionist. And its even more galling to me because this is an easy case. There is no responsible constitutional scholar who thinks Donald Trump is right, that there is absolute immunity.

This is a real problem, he added.

Former federal prosecutor Andrew Weissmann said he was in violent agreement with Katyal, argued there really is no reason for a delay. He also called Trumps claim to immunity absurd and preposterous.

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Ex-DOJ Official Says He's 'Now At The Freakout Stage' Over 1 Donald Trump Case - Yahoo News

To read more of The Economists data journalism visit ourGraphic detail page.

DONALD TRUMPS fundraising machine continues to take in donations at a fast pace. The former presidents legal troubles rally his supporters to give money, but they also drain his campaign coffers. The Economists analysis of newly released data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) shows that Mr Trump raised more than $75m in the second half of 2023, up from nearly $54m in the first. That brings his haul in 2023 to $129m.

Mr Trump raised much of this money when scandals about him were in the headlines. In the two weeks after his indictment in March on allegations that he concealed hush-money payments to Stormy Daniels, an adult-film actress, the campaign raised $15.4m. When Mr Trump was indicted again in June for allegedly mishandling classified documents he took in another $6.6m in less than a week. In August, after the former president was charged with trying to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia, he raised $9.4m. This included proceeds from the sale of T-shirts, coffee mugs and other merchandise emblazoned with his scowling mugshot.

Mr Trumps campaign and affiliated committees are spending money nearly as quickly as they are taking it in (see charts). Some of this is going towards normal campaign expenses. For example, his joint fundraising committee, the main fundraising vehicle for the election campaign, raised $75m in the second half of 2023 and spent nearly $28m on online advertising, direct mail, text messaging and consulting.

But Mr Trumps legal fees are by far the biggest cost of his campaign network. Early in 2022 such expenses amounted to around $500,000 a month, or less than 10% of total spending. Since then the cost of defending Mr Trump against criminal chargeshe faces 91 felony counts in totaland lawsuits has ballooned to more than $5m per month. The latest FEC filings show that in the final three months of 2023 more than 50 cents of every dollar donated to Mr Trump went towards his defence.

The Republican front-runner is lagging behind his Democratic rival in the money race. The latest filings show that Mr Trumps campaign had roughly $46m in cash at the end of 2023, less than half of the $117m held by President Joe Bidens campaign. In the previous election Mr Bidens cash advantage helped him outspend Mr Trump in swing states. Currently, the president is behind Mr Trump in the polls despite his cash advantage. But as election day draws nearer, money may begin to matter more. At the same time, new trials will get under way, so Mr Trump will be spending more of his funds on legal expenses. Whether his donors can continue to finance both his campaign and his army of lawyers remains to be seen.

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Donald Trump's legal fees are draining his campaign funds - The Economist

Donald Trump said he still has not chosen any one of them (File)

US former president Donald Trump on Sunday stoked rumours about his choice for a running mate in 2024 by mentioning Senator Tim Scott and Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota in response to a question about his preference for the vice president contenders, The Hill reported.

During an interview with Fox News's Maria Bartiromo for "Sunday Morning Futures," Trump said, "Not for a while," when asked when he would announce his choice for vice president.

After Trump said, "There are a lot of good people," Bartiromo questioned whether Trump had still not chosen one of them.

"I haven't, and there's no reason," Trump responded by saying.

He continued, saying he talks to "everyone" and disclosed that he recently spoke with Tim Scott, who withdrew his presidential run last year and then endorsed Trump wholeheartedly.

"I called him and I said, 'You are a much better candidate for me, than you were for yourself," he said. "When I watched Tim, he was fine, he was good, but he was very low-key. I watched him in the last week, defending me, and sticking up for me and fighting for me," reported The Hill.

Subsequently, Trump said Kristi Noem has "been incredible fighting" for him, citing her declaration that she would never challenge him "because [she] can't beat him."

The names of Tim Scott and Kristi Noem have been in circulation lately, along with a few others, according to The Hill.

After winning in New Hampshire and Iowa, Trump has a commanding lead over the last significant opponent of the Republican Party, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)

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Donald Trump Mentions These Names When Asked About Vice Presidential Picks - NDTV

IF AMERICA were to hold its presidential election tomorrow, Donald Trump would be picking out curtains for the Oval Office. The Economists polling average puts him up by 2.3 points over Joe Biden nationwide. And across the six swing states expected to decide the electionArizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsinhe leads by an average of 3.8 points. Betting markets list Mr Trump as a clear favourite. Never in his past two campaigns were his general-election polls this strong. Is it time for the world to brace itself for a second Trump presidency?

The election is still nine months away. Historically, polls taken before the summer of an election year have been poor predictors of results. But no former president has sought to return to office since the advent of modern polling. Opinions about the omnipresent Mr Trump are much firmer than they are about typical challenger candidates, who at this stage of the race are usually still fighting to secure their partys nomination. As a result, even though Mr Trump is not yet the presumptive Republican nominee, current head-to-head polls between him and Mr Biden may be unusually informative.

Stay up to date with our new daily update, The US in brief, and our presidential poll tracker.

Read more of our coverage of the US elections of 2024.

Nationwide surveys over the past month have varied widely, ranging from an eight-percentage-point lead for Mr Trump to a six-point edge for Mr Biden. Polling averages, which blunt the effect of such outliers, suggest that Mr Trump holds a clear lead. But the polls that comprise such averages differ in their methods and degree of rigour. Democrats hunting for a silver lining can take solace in one clear pattern: pollsters with the best records of accuracy show better results for Mr Biden. In contrast, their lower-quality counterparts give Mr Trump the edge.

Public trust in polling has weakened following the industrys high-profile underestimates of Mr Trumps support in 2016 and 2020 (although polling before the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections was accurate). Reliably estimating pollsters accuracymeasured by the size of their historical errors and whether they consistently exaggerate support for a particular partyrequires a large sample of surveys across many elections. FiveThirtyEight, a data-journalism outfit, recently updated its ratings of American pollsters. It assesses them on a combination of their records and their methodological transparency.

Some pollsters are consistently more accurate than the field. But there are lots of ways to judge quality. The Economists general-election polling average weights polls solely by sample size and recency, so that larger and newer polls contribute a greater share to the overall average. Using this methodology, Mr Trump leads Mr Biden in national polls by 2.3 points. That compares with a 0.2-point lead for Mr Biden in an unweighted average that gives polls from six months ago the same weight as those from this past week.

The size of Mr Trumps lead varies widely by the quality of pollster, as assessed by FiveThirtyEight (see chart). This early in the election cycle, the pollsters in its highest tier of quality have conducted polls only sporadically. (One exception is a weekly survey conducted by YouGov, an online pollster, for The Economist.) However, in total, 13 polls have been conducted in 2024 by firms in this group. On average, they show a virtual tie between Mr Trump and Mr Biden.

By contrast, most polls released in January 2024 have come from pollsters middle class: firms with good but not exceptional records. Polls in these (good and decent) tiers show Mr Trump with a 2.4-point and 1.7-point lead respectively. Meanwhile, pollsters with a poor record or no prior published results show Mr Trump with an average margin over Mr Biden of around six points.

National polls reflect the general mood, and correspond to the popular vote. But thanks to the electoral-college system, winning the popular vote is no guarantee of electoral victory. In 2000 and 2016, for example, Republican nominees won the presidency despite losing the popular vote.

Still, in recent decades the electoral college has typically benefited Republican candidates. If Mr Trump were to win the popular vote by a six-point margin, he would almost certainly win at least 358 electoral-college votes, giving him the largest Republican victory since George H.W. Bush took 426 in 1988. This would bring into play even states that Mr Biden won comfortably in 2020, such as Maine, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia.

To survey-watchers who think that all polls are created equal, Mr Trump has opened a modest but growing lead nationwide. But to those who maintain that pollsters historical accuracy predicts future accuracy, Messrs Trump and Biden are in a dead heat.

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Trump's lead over Biden may be smaller than it looks - The Economist

Trumps restraint made it easier for House Republicans to steer the deal to overwhelming bipartisan passage. By contrast, the presidents vocal opposition has essentially put the Senates emerging border deal on life support.

With every day that Trump draws closer to the GOPs presidential nomination, his voice carries more weight within the party. The former president, who holds no elected office, arguably can exert more influence over the Republican agenda than either the partys speaker or Senate GOP leader.

Its a 180-degree turn from three years ago, when Trumps efforts to overturn his loss to President Joe Biden culminated in a violent Capitol riot that ended with seven Republican senators voting to convict him in a second impeachment trial. These days, Republicans are increasingly sensitive to Trumps viewpoints and conscious of his power to upend bills that Joe Biden might be able to tout on the campaign trail.

At a minimum, Trumps ballooning clout could doom two top Biden priorities: Ukraine aid and a bipartisan border deal. Even the tax deal Trump blessed on its way to House passage faces an uncertain future in the Senate, where some Republicans have warned that it could amount to a win for Biden. Republicans are still wondering whether Trump might publicly support the tax bill, according to interviews with several senators this week, with Finance Committee ranking member Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) saying hes only heard rumors.

On the other side of that GOP divide, a sizable number of lawmakers are chafing at the idea that Trump can single-handedly tie their hands.

I just think its unfortunate that we cant, as individual United States senators, take the time and the effort and intellectual honesty to study something on your own and make a decision, said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.). Donald Trump has an opinion too. Thats great, but ours should be our opinion.

I've made the argument on Ukraine that it's very stupid for us to get crosswise with the partys nominees, especially on an issue where he's very directly opposed to Joe Biden, J.D. Vance said. | Andrew Harnik/AP

When the Senate started its bipartisan border negotiations last fall a Republican demand, to be clear it still was not entirely clear Trump would lock up the GOP nomination. More than three months later, as those negotiations come to a close, Trumps collision course with Biden is threatening any deal in Congress that has Bidens imprint on it.

So Trumps attacks have become something of a bat signal now for many Republicans in Congress.

When former President Trump says something, everybody listens, said Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), who hails from a border district. Everybody.

When Trump was president, he frequently dialed up senators and members of Congress to discuss the daily Washington grind of politics and policy. He tanked a 2018 border deal, leaned on senators to support his nominees and developed his own kitchen cabinet of congressional advisers some of whom, like former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and former Sen. David Perdue, are no longer in Congress.

So Trumps leaning on old and new allies as he prepares for a fall slugfest over control of Congress and the White House. In the House, he frequently chats with Speaker Mike Johnson, according to advisers, as well as Reps. Elise Stefanik of New York, Max Miller of Ohio, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Ronny Jackson of Texas.

Over in the Senate, Trump is in regular contact with lawmakers like Sens. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, Steve Daines of Montana, Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee and Tommy Tuberville of Alabama.

President Trump has worked to develop and maintain close relationships with Congressional members and elected officials that fight for the American people. Thats why hes received overwhelming support, Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung said in a statement.

Trump views his relationships on the Hill as critical to his return to power. Over the course of the past year, he has spoken to over 100 members, soliciting endorsements and inviting them to his rallies or dinner at Mar-a-Lago. He has worked closely with Brian Jack, a senior campaign aide and congressional liaison, on cultivating relationships on the Hill.

His efforts have been fairly successful; Trump currently boasts the support of 137 House members and 31 senators. And when Republicans call Trump, it is often to ask for his opinion on whatever is playing out on the Hill as a kind of party elder, according to an adviser.

Still, even some Trump allies disagree. Graham said he speaks with Trump regularly, but he was comfortable differing with the former president and backing more aid to Ukraine, saying: My policy ideas are pretty firm. He was unwilling to comment yet on the border deal until he sees text.

Vance, another close Trump ally, seems to be more en vogue with the former president.

Ive made the argument on Ukraine that its very stupid for us to get crosswise with the partys nominees, especially on an issue where hes very directly opposed to Joe Biden, Vance said. Where I am substantively aligned with President Trump, which is on most things, my strong preference is that the caucus listens to President Trump.

While Vance and other Trump confidants say that he isnt personally lobbying GOP lawmakers to kill the border and Ukraine deal, thats probably because he doesnt need to. As the Republican primary fizzled out and Trump romped in the two early states, the GOP is intuitively reacting to Trumps positions to avoid getting too far out of step with him.

Thom Tillis, one of Congress' most prominent deal-cutters, is urging other Republicans to develop their own opinions about legislation. | Mariam Zuhaib/AP

The effect is most pronounced in the House, where two-year terms and a constant threat to Johnsons job make it politically perilous to diverge from Trump. Plus, House members are more susceptible to primary challenges that could easily spring from Trump-defying votes, like on the Senates border and Ukraine package.

President Trump has had an influence on it. You also have to think about where we are in political cycles, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said. If youve got somebody whos got a filing deadline in March or April or May, thered be no way to prevent an uninformed person from challenging them.

Tillis, one of Congress most prominent deal-cutters, is urging other Republicans to develop their own opinions about legislation. The North Carolina Republican is opposing Smiths tax bill and supporting Sen. James Lankfords (R-Okla.) border deal, which backers argue wont hurt Trump because it comes far too late to save Bidens standing on the issue.

Trump realizes the border is a potent issue for him. What I would tell him is I dont think the issue is going to go away, said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a potential future GOP leader who has endorsed Trump. Even if something were to pass in the next 10 months, I dont think youre gonna see a dramatic change at the border.

So far, that argument has not sunk in. Trump visited Washington this week and attacked the border deal, warning that those who support it are making a terrible mistake. Episodes like that remind Republicans trying to negotiate deals Trump doesnt like and break Congress stubborn unproductive streak that every day becomes more of an uphill battle.

You gotta read it and understand that there are divided chambers and tight margins. And is half a loaf better than no loaf? Thats what we got to look at, said Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.).

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Inside Trump's growing influence over congressional Republicans - POLITICO - POLITICO

Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media at a Washington hotel on Jan. 9, 2024, after attending a hearing before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals at the federal courthouse in Washington. Susan Walsh/AP hide caption

Former President Donald Trump speaks to the media at a Washington hotel on Jan. 9, 2024, after attending a hearing before the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals at the federal courthouse in Washington.

WASHINGTON A federal judge in Washington formally postponed Donald Trump's March trial on charges of plotting to overturn the 2020 election as a key legal appeal from the former president remains unresolved in the courts.

U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan on Friday vacated the March 4 trial date in the case brought by Justice Department special counsel Jack Smith but did not immediately set a new date.

The move opens the door for a separate prosecution in New York, charging Trump in connection with hush money payments to a porn actor, to proceed first. That case has long been seen as arguably the least legally perilous of the four indictments Trump faces, with the alleged misconduct less grave than accusations of mishandling classified documents or plotting to subvert a presidential election.

The postponement in Washington comes as a federal appeals court has yet to resolve a pending appeal from Trump arguing that he is immune from prosecution for actions he took in the White House. It is not clear when the three-judge panel might rule, but a ruling in favor of prosecutors that permits the case to move forward is expected to be appealed by the Trump team, likely resulting in additional delays.

For both sides, timing is of the essence. Trump, who faces four indictments and 91 felony counts, is looking to push his criminal cases back as he enjoys front-runner status in the race for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Smith's team, meanwhile, is hoping to be able to prosecute Trump this year before the November election. If Trump is elected while the case is pending, he could presumably order the Justice Department to drop it and could potentially try to seek a pardon for himself.

The Washington case had been expected to take place first, but it has been delayed for weeks by Trump's appeal on grounds that he is shielded from prosecution a claim that has been vigorously disputed by Smith's team. The appeals court heard arguments on Jan. 9 and appeared skeptical of a Trump lawyer's position. Though the court has said it intended to work quickly, it has not yet issued a ruling.

The judge in the New York case, the first of four indictments filed against Trump last year, has long resisted defense demands that he postpone the March 25 start date in light of the conflicting trial date in Washington, figuring correctly that the former president's legal calendar might change as the trial neared.

Trump is due back in court in Manhattan on Feb. 15 for a pretrial hearing where final details are expected to be ironed out. All signs point to the New York case starting on time. Trump's lawyers and prosecutors have been discussing jury selection procedures with the judge and some witnesses have said they've been told to be ready to testify.

The New York case involves steps Trump allegedly took to hide payments that were made on the Republican's behalf to suppress damaging stories before his 2016 win over Democrat Hillary Clinton, namely logging them as legal expenses. While a guilty verdict would give Trump another historic moniker as the first former president convicted of a crime, potentially complicating his campaign to return to the White House, there's no guarantee of prison time.

Trump critics and rival campaign aides have long bemoaned that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg's indictment was the first, believing that it helped blunt the political impact of more serious charges that followed because voters tuned out or grew confused by the myriad cases.

Bragg has eschewed his case's "hush money" label, opting in recent weeks to describe it as another Trump "election interference" case albeit, this one involving behind-the-scenes maneuvering during Trump's first campaign for the White House in 2016.

Trump, meanwhile, faces dozens of felony charges in Florida accusing him of illegally retaining classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago estate. That case is set for trial on May 20 but could still be postponed. Another case in Georgia, brought by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, accuses him of plotting to overturn that state's 2020 election. No trial date has been set.

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Federal judge postpones Trump's March 4 election interference trial - NPR

Most people dont think Donald Trump will ever face justice. Certainly his supporters dont think sobut even among those who want to see a fair process of real accountability for Trump, there is pessimism, bordering on cynicism. Prosecutors are weak, or co-opted, or lack the courage to pursue justice wherever it leads, they say, and so Trump will get away with everything. Prominent, wealthy figures are untouchable and above the law: this is how many people feel right now.

This narrative is wrong. Donald Trump can absolutely be held accountable. I know, because I did it.

While serving at the New York Attorney Generals office, I helped lead the prosecution of Trump University, Trumps first major legal loss, resulting in a $25 million settlement in 2017 that is still his largest legal payout to date (although it may soon be eclipsed by one or more cases).

Since then, my old colleagues have gone onto victories in the Trump Foundation case in 2019and now, potentially, in their civil fraud suit against the Trump Organization, which could result in Trump paying up to $370 million to New York State, and losing his New York businesses. Prior to Trump University, he did indeed seem invincible. Today it is a very different story.

How did we do it? How were we able to win when no one else could, and indeed, when many prosecutors didnt even bother to try?

The playbook for how to defeat Trump is now well-definedand its being followed by many of the prosecutors who are pursuing his various alleged misdeeds.

There are several key elements: courageous leadership, a stoic refusal to be distracted or daunted by Trumps counterattacks and diversions, dogged and comprehensive investigation, and devotion to savvy communication not only in court filings but with the media and the public.

Courage is the first item on the list for a good reason: its the indispensable ingredient, and without it, failure beckons. Any proper prosecution follows the facts and the law, but one must first have the courage to do so, especially when the facts and the law will lead to a high-profile target who will counterattack savagely. If courage is lacking, an elected prosecutor is especially vulnerable to temptation, and Trump has a long history of donations to prosecutors campaigns right around the time those prosecutors dropped investigations against Trump.

That courage must continue throughout the whole prosecution, even when Trump begins running his own well-worn playbookdelay, divert, and destroy. Hell refuse to comply with subpoenas; hell create delays with additional motions or appeals; hell try to destroy the reputations of the prosecutors, the judges, and even their staff and families. Through it all, brave opponents must stand firm and stick to their arguments and their evidence, avoiding any distractions.

Unshakeable relentlessness is also the order of the day when pursuing evidence. Trump will stonewall, even when faced with court orders and fines, in flagrant dereliction of legal requirements the rest of us have to follow. To overcome this, opponents must fight assertively to force Trump to produce more documents and witnessesbut they must also get creative, subpoenaing Trumps vendors, especially any former vendors the notoriously cheap and vengeful Trump refused to pay.

Finally, when its time for the case to go public, its simply not enough to file a normal case and hope for the best. Pursuing a target like Trump requires truly extraordinary efforts to polish a case to perfectionand to remember who else is in the audience in a high-profile case.

The arguments and evidentiary findings must be directed not only to the court but also to the public and the media. Clear communication is critical. There must be a well-structured narrative, with key points that are accessible and obvious. Trump will try to expand the conflict into the public arena, especially when hes losing in the courtroom, and its crucial to occupy that ground before he does.

This playbook may seem simple, but it requires exceptional discipline and dedication to playing the long game, grinding it out, and eventually wearing Trump downeither winning in court, or winning a settlement. And this is the playbook that many of the current prosecutors and litigants are deploying: these cases have seemed slow, but, out of public view, they have accumulated massive amounts of evidence that they are pushing forward, every day, until the momentum is unstoppable.

Trump has mostly avoided accountability for 50 years now, floating above the law. But if the playbook is followed, those days are likely to end soon.

Tristan Snell is the author of the new book Taking Down Trump: 12 Rules for Prosecuting Donald Trump by Someone Whos Done it Successfully. He is a lawyer and legal commentator on MSNBC and CNN, and he served as Assistant Attorney General for New York State, where he led the investigation and prosecution of Trump University.

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I Prosecuted Donald Trump and Won. Here's How It's Done. - The Daily Beast

In December, when a federal appeals court agreed to hear former President Donald J. Trumps sweeping claims to be immune from charges of plotting overturn the 2020 election, it laid out a lightning-fast briefing schedule, asking the defense and prosecution to file their papers on successive Saturdays during the Christmas and New Years holidays.

A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit also moved with unusual alacrity in setting up a hearing for arguments on the issue, scheduling the proceeding on Jan. 9, just one week after all of the papers were submitted a remarkably short window by the standards of the judicial system.

But after sending up what appeared to be clear signals that they intended to swiftly resolve this phase of the immunity dispute which lies at the heart of both the viability and timing of Mr. Trumps trial on the election subversion charges the appeals court judges have yet to issue a decision.

The implications are already coming into focus. On Friday, the Federal District Court judge overseeing the election case, Tanya S. Chutkan, formally scrapped her plan to start the trial on March 4. She was bowing to the reality that time had run out to get the proceeding going by then, mostly because of the wrangling over Mr. Trumps immunity claim, and said she would set a new date if and when that matter is resolved.

The disconnect between the expectations set up by the panels early moves to expedite the case and the weeks that have now accumulated without a ruling has captured the attention of some legal experts who are closely watching the case.

It has also caught the eye of Mr. Trumps lawyers, who have been watching from the sidelines with something akin to quiet glee. Each day that passes without a ruling bolsters their strategy of seeking to postpone the trial until after the presidential race is decided.

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After Speedy Start, Appeals Court Slows Down on Trump Immunity Decision - The New York Times