Daily Archives: December 25, 2023

When Vladimir Putin canceled his traditional end-of-year marathon press conference last winter, it was widely interpreted as proof that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was going badly wrong. This December the flagship event was back, and so was the swagger. Putin oozed confidence throughout his carefully choreographed question-and-answer session, which lasted for more than four hours. In addition to claiming large parts of Ukraine as historically Russian territory and insisting Ukrainians are actually Russians (one people), the Kremlin dictator also made clear that he is in no mood to negotiate. There will be peace when we have achieved all our goals, he declared. Victory will be ours.

As the New Year holiday season draws near, this same upbeat message of impending victory is on display in public spaces across Russia, and is becoming increasingly prominent throughout the countrys Kremlin-controlled media ecosystem. Its difficult to overstate the level of outward confidence currently being displayed on Russian state TV, commented Russian media watcher Francis Scarr of BBC Monitoring on December 20.

The growing sense of triumphalism inside Russia is all the more striking as it is largely unconnected to any developments on the battlefields of Ukraine. Indeed, Putins invading army has barely advanced at all during 2023, and has spent much of the past year on the defensive. Nevertheless, there is no mistaking the change in mood among the Russian elite compared to the gloomy outlook of late 2022. This renewed faith in ultimate Russian victory owes much more to Western weakness than to the Kremlins own military might.

Since the early stages of this years summer campaigning season, international coverage of the war has focused almost exclusively on Ukraines failing counteroffensive. This has obscured the fact that Russias own attempted offensives have proven equally underwhelming. Despite mobilizing more than 300,000 additional troops in late 2022, Moscow has been unable to achieve any major military breakthroughs over the past twelve months. Instead, the front lines of the war have remained largely static, with Russian commanders paying a terrible price in men and equipment for comparatively modest gains that have often been measured in meters rather than kilometers.

The absence of international media interest in Russias lack of progress speaks volumes about the countrys diminished status as a military superpower. On the eve of the full-scale invasion, many experts believed Ukraine would be no match for Putins army and predicted the country would fall in a matter of days. Less than two years later, Russias multiple failed offensives and catastrophic losses are now increasingly taken for granted. Rarely in modern history has a countrys military reputation taken so severe a battering in such a short space of time.

While the Russian army has little to cheer, the situation at sea is arguably even worse. The Russian Black Sea Fleets shortcomings first became apparent in the early months of the war with the sinking of fleet flagship The Moskva and the retreat from Snake Island. However, these setbacks were to prove relatively minor compared to the fleets dramatically deteriorating fortunes during 2023. Despite not having a navy of its own, Ukraine has used a combination of drones, missiles, and commando raids over the past year to break the blockade of the countrys Black Sea ports and force Russia to withdraw the bulk of its warships from occupied Crimea. The most humiliating blow in this innovative Ukrainian campaign came in September, when the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol was partially destroyed by a Ukrainian airstrike.

With 2023 offering very little in terms of genuine Russian military success stories, why is the Kremlin suddenly so bullish about the future prospects of the invasion? This optimism is in large part due to a weakening of Western resolve that has become increasingly evident during the second half of the year. The failure of Ukraines counteroffensive has played a key role in this process, leading to widespread war weariness and increased talk of Ukraine fatigue. With no end in sight to the conflict, a major new American support package has become hostage to domestic US politics, while EU leaders were recently unable to secure unanimous support for a landmark multi-year aid initiative.

Western weakness is playing directly into Putins hands. Ever since the failure of its initial blitzkrieg attack in spring 2022, Russias strategy has been to outlast the West while gradually overwhelming Ukraine. Putin is openly preparing his country for an extended confrontation with the Western world, and has shifted the Russian economy to a war footing. This long-term approach appears to be working. Many in Russia are now convinced the West is preparing to abandon Ukraine and are openly relishing the prospect of what would be an historic victory.

As the world prepares to enter 2024, the stakes in Ukraine could hardly be higher. If Western indecision and disunity allows Putin to achieve his goal of extinguishing Ukrainian statehood, the implications for international security would be disastrous. A resurgent Russia would almost certainly go further, either by targeting low-hanging fruit such as Moldova and Kazakhstan, or by testing NATO itself. Even in a best case scenario, the countries of the democratic world would soon find themselves forced to drastically increase defense budgets to levels that would dwarf the current cost of arming Ukraine. Meanwhile, other authoritarian regimes would seek to replicate Russias success. The whole world would be plunged into a new era of instability.

If Western leaders wish to prevent the collapse of the international security system, they must recognize the necessity of defeating Putin and finally give Ukraine the tools it needs to secure victory. There is nothing inevitable about the current stalemate; on the contrary, it is a direct result of the failure to arm Ukraine adequately in 2023. With sufficient weapons, Ukraine has already shown it is capable of beating Russia on the battlefield. However, without continued Western support, Ukrainian resistance will likely end in tragedy.

Fateful months lie ahead. The collective West has more than enough economic, industrial, and military resources at its disposal to surpass anything Russia could hope to muster, but Western leaders have yet to demonstrate the necessary political will to win. Unless this is urgently rectified, 2024 may go down in history as a decisive year not only for Ukraine but for the entire Western world.

Peter Dickinson is editor of the Atlantic Councils UkraineAlert service.

The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff, or its supporters.

Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin awards Sergeant Yevgeny Supakov with the Hero of Russia Gold Star medal following an expanded meeting of the Defence Ministry Board at the National Defence Control Centre in Moscow, Russia December 19, 2023. (Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Kremlin via REUTERS)

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Putin scents historic victory amid growing signs of Western weakness - Atlantic Council

Russian President Vladimir Putin may be open to a cease-fire in his war with Ukraine, so long as the country could still declare victory, a new report by the New York Times found.

Putin, still confident in his forces, said that Russia’s goals have not changed. In his annual year-end press conference last week, Putin warned that there would be no peace solutionin Ukraine until Russia achieves its overarching goals, the “denazification” and demilitarization of Ukraine.

Putin’s message might be different now, as he has reportedly signaled he is ready to make a deal. Since September, Putin has signaled that he is open to a pause in fighting along the current lines, which is much shorter than his intention to dominate Ukraine, according to the Times who cited two former senior Russian officials.  

According to the United Nations, more than 10,000 civilians have been killed and 18,500 have been injured since the start of the war nearly two years ago.

According to American officials, Putin also put out feelers for a ceasefire in the fall of 2022 after he was not happy with how much territory Russia had captured.

“Mr. Putin’s repeated interest in a cease-fire is an example of how opportunism and improvisation have defined his approach to the war behind closed doors,” the Times wrote.

The Times said they conducted dozens of interviews with Russians who have known Putin for years that shine a light on his maneuvering to avoid risks and keep his options open in the war that’s lasted longer than he thought it would.

The officials that spoke with the Times said Putin sees several reasons that make now a good moment to make a deal, particularly since the war seems stuck in a stalemate, Ukraine’s offensive has been disappointing and the onset of the Israel-Hamas war.

According to the Kremlin’s analysis, public support for the war is broad but not deep, which means most people would accept whatever Putin would deem as a victory.

Some Western officials are skeptical that Putin would only rearm and rebuild during a cease-fire.

There is no guarantee that Ukraine’s leaders would accept a deal, though the country has been struggling to finance its military amid delays in funding from both Europe and the United States.

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Putin could be open to a pause in fighting amid Russia-Ukraine war: Report - The Hill

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been sending signals through intermediaries since at least September that he is ready to agree to a ceasefire in the war of aggression against Ukraine, which would include freezing hostilities on the current contact line.

Source: The New York Times, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The newspaper claims to have learnt this information from two former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin, as well as US and international officials.

US officials believe Putin had already made attempts to negotiate a ceasefire a year earlier, in the autumn of 2022. His previously unknown intentions emerged after Ukraine defeated the Russian forces in the northeast. At the time, Putin indicated his satisfaction with the territories that Russia had captured and was ready for a truce, the newspaper's sources noted.

However, Putin is now deploying fiery public rhetoric that Russia's goals in the war have not changed while privately indicating his desire to "declare victory and move on."

Western officials have been receiving new signals since at least September that Putin appears to be interested in a ceasefire. The messages come through several channels, including foreign governments with ties to both the United States and Russia.

"They [the Russians] say, We are ready to have negotiations on a cease-fire They want to stay where they are on the battlefield," said one senior international official who met with Russian officials this autumn.

However, some US officials suggest that this may be a typical misleading attempt by the Kremlin and that it does not reflect Putin's genuine willingness to compromise. Former Russian officials add that Putin may well change his mind again if Russian troops gain momentum.

"He really is willing to stop at the current positions Hes not willing to retreat one meter," said one former senior Russian official, echoing a message he believes the Kremlin is tacitly sending.

Current and former officials say Putin is considering a confluence of factors that create a favourable moment for a deal: a stalemated battlefield, the aftermath of Ukraine's failed offensive, weak support for Kyiv in the West, and the distraction from the Russo-Ukrainian war due to the situation in the Gaza Strip.

Publicly, Putin has maintained his aggressive stance, claiming that he is confronting the West, which is seeking to destroy the "millennia-old Russian civilisation".

However, US officials see a shift in Putin's stance, noting that he is no longer demanding the resignation of the Zelenskyy government. They claimed that the ceasefire Putin is proposing would preserve a sovereign Ukraine with Kyiv as its capital but leave Russia in control of nearly 20% of the Ukrainian territory it has managed to occupy.

The US sources added that while Putin has signalled that he is open to such a deal, he is waiting for a more concrete proposal.

One of many likely stumbling blocks is Putin's determination to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. Nevertheless, one former Russian official noted that disagreements over this issue would not be a reason for Putin not to negotiate, as the Alliance is not expected to accept Ukraine into its ranks in the foreseeable future.

However, senior US officials expressed their doubts that any prominent Ukrainian politician could agree to a deal that would cede that much Ukrainian territory to Russia.

The ceasefire is viewed with scepticism by many in the West, who believe Putin is rearming for a future attack.

Background:

At a press conference on 14 December, Putin declared that the war against Ukraine will end when he achieves all his goals - "denazification, demilitarisation and neutral status for Ukraine".

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg believes that Russia will not be able to achieve its goals in Ukraine despite its enormous efforts.

Earlier, the French and UK foreign ministers vowed to support Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion "as long as it takes", with the important thing being that President Vladimir Putin must lose.

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Putin sends signals of willingness to freeze war New York Times - Yahoo News

The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent in any way the editorial position of Euronews.

Putin's regime is an existential threat to European civilization. If Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not stop, just as Hitler did not stop when he captured the Sudetenland. Putin will go further and wont rest until he destroys the Western world, Leonid Gozman writes.

Hopes for Kyiv's relatively quick victory have not materialised and the war between Russia and Ukraine has dragged onthough this is certainly not the fault of the Ukrainians.

The war is becoming polarising and demands for negotiations and compromise are increasingly frequent.

Those hoping for a compromise with Vladimir Putin do not fully understand the nature of his regime or him as a person.

Compromise with Putin is impossible, and any peace agreement will not lead to peace, but rather to a temporary ceasefire that Putin will use to build up his forces for a new attack.

Putin started this war not to resolve a specific issue there were no unsolvable contradictions between Russia and Ukraine but to destroy Ukraine as a subject of politics, language, and culture.

He repeatedly stated that there was never such a thing as Ukraine to begin with, that it was invented by Vladimir Lenin, that Russians and Ukrainians are one people, and that the Ukrainian language does not exist.

He believes it. In Putins mind, destroying Ukraine is not at all aggression, but a return to a normal order.

That is why Ukrainians cant agree with Putin or as Golda Meir said, You cannot negotiate peace with someone who has come to kill you.

Since it would be politically inviable to openly declare the destruction of Ukraine as the goal of the invasion, the Russian authorities constantly changed their war aims.

They first aimed to ensure the right to speak Russian in Donbas which no one encroached on then destroy biological laboratories designed to make Russian women infertile, allegedly created in Ukraine with the help of the United States.

After came denazification and finally, in Dmitry Medvedevs words, the fight against Satan.

It is true: today, Russian propaganda does not talk about the goals of the war at all. For Russia, war is no longer the means, but a natural state.

The war with Ukraine is only one of three that Putins regime wages. The second one, no less important, is the war for the revival of the Empire.

While the Kremlin has been preparing for it for a long time, it entered the active phase in 2008, when Russia captured 20% of Georgias territory.

Putin, of course, does not seek to occupy all the countries formerly part of the Russian Empire, but he does demand special rights and control over their foreign policy.

Russia takes every opportunity to destabilise its neighbours, from utilising the Russian diaspora to bribing politicians and organsing coups.

Putin will never give up his rights to the Empire. He believes that any territory where Russian soldiers shed blood should be part of Russia or its sphere of influence, and people living there should be eternally grateful to Russia.

The lack of gratitude angers and makes Putin even more aggressive.

However, the main war for Putin is the one with the West, where Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and threats to Poland are just episodes.

According to the Russian leadership, the West (or Anglo-Saxons) has always humiliated Russia, seeking to conquer or slow down Russias development.

The motive of humiliation or lack of respect is fundamentally important to Putin. And, even when Russia did not yet exist, this was not so much of an inter-country struggle but a spiritual confrontation between the worlds good, embodied by Russia and the Russians, and evil, that is the West.

Now, just as before, so the story goes, the West hates Russia, seeking to undermine its unity and destroy the country as a whole, and is ready to risk a global war for this.

The idea of a global confrontation with European civilization did not emerge immediately after Putin became president.

Putin began as a Westerniser and perceived integration of Russia into the First World as his mission.

That did not work out, but Putin also did not strive to join the modern West, but rather the West of the Yalta Conference times, when the great powers could divide the planet among themselves.

And since returning to the past turned out to be unattainable, Putin, while remaining in G8, began to pursue an anti-Western policy, hoping to lead the worlds anti-American sentiment.

But that did not work out either: neither China, Turkey, nor Iran accepted him as the leader. That was the time when the wars began: Putin decided to gain global respect and recognition with military force.

Putin needs this war for both domestic and psychological reasons.

His reign has been plagued by failures: the demographic situation is worsening, the technological gap is increasing, the quality of life is falling, and it is not possible to solve any of Russias most pressing problems.

Contrary to popular belief, there is no support for his policies or him personally.

People are indifferent; they have come to terms with Putin and his actions and do not feel any enthusiasm about it.

The defeats at the front or what is declared as victories do not provoke a public reaction, and neither did Putins ICC arrest warrant or the drone attack on the Kremlin.

The war with no end allows Putin to suppress discontent we were attacked, the enemy is on the doorstep and not think about the failures, instead plunging into the world of illusions completely, where he has been in recent years.

For Putin, peace is impossible. The task of maintaining control over Russia and preserving self-respect is solved only in conditions of war.

Peace will make the population realise the meaninglessness of their sacrifices and, most importantly, give elites an opportunity to express, in one form or another, their dissatisfaction with Putins policies, catastrophic both for them and the country but beneficial to Putin and his entourage.

The dissatisfaction of the elites has been accumulating for years.Therefore, no matter what the costs are, Putin will continue the war, using any negotiations as a respite.

This is exactly what Adolf Hitler would have done if, at the end of the war, the anti-Hitler coalition had agreed to a peace agreement with him.

He could no longer help but fight; a stable peace meant the end of his power. It is the same for Putin.

He does not need peace, but only a truce. And peace on Earth, as in 1945, can only be achieved if the regime of Vladimir Putin is destroyed.

Therefore, the supply of Western weapons and financial assistance to Ukraine is not charity, but self-defence.

The Putin system is an existential threat to European civilization. If Russia wins in Ukraine, it will not stop, just as Hitler did not stop when he captured the Sudetenland.

Putin will go further and wont rest until he destroys the Western world.

Leonid Gozman, Ph.D. is a Russian liberal politician, psychologist and political scientist, and a professor at Lomonosov Moscow State University in Moscow until 2020. Now in exile,Gozman was declared a "foreign agent" in 2022, then arrested and spent a month in prison for opposing the war in Ukraine.

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Russia's three wars have made peace with Putin impossible - Euronews

Vladimir Putin’s unwavering faith in the supremacy of autocracy is not baseless: Two years into his Ukraine war, having lost more than 200,000 Russian soldiers in a quagmire that would be disastrous for any democratic leader, Putin sees the collective West receding from its once strong support of Ukraine. Rather than having buckled to the world’s initial, emotional outrage to his full-scale invasion, Putin has taken a page from the Playbook of America’s Enemies: Give it time, and the West will fold.  

Putin is now signaling that he has devised further, post-Ukraine plans for global destruction. We should not lose time in ending the Putin regime before it is too late. 

Failing to take Ukraine in 2014, Putin relaunched his efforts in 2022, and last week foreshadowed that “Odessa [Ukraine] is a Russian city.” Taking Odessa would be the last stop before the Russian train of terror dives deeper into Europe, into Moldova, a mere 31 miles away. Moldova, like Ukraine, is not a member of NATO: The poorest country in Europe, with a military of less than 7,000 men, would quickly be overrun by Russian troops.  

We should not dismiss as hyperbolic Putin’s promise of “problems for Finland” for having joined NATO and the ire he feels toward the Baltic states, which have been energetic cheerleaders for Ukraine: Putin has already decided they need not exist. 

The Baltic States’s military strategy, should the Russian Bear arrive, is to essentially break into partisan units, holding off Russia for a few weeks until NATO arrives. NATO’s Article 5 dictates that countries must assist the attacked member-nation. However, a reinvigorated, NATO-skeptic President Trump, if reelected, could use America’s vote to veto the use of Article 5. 

Putin may not start-off with the full-scale invasion of another European country, as Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said: Moscow has plenty of strings to pull in the Balkan tinderbox.  

The autocracies of the world are rejoicing at the debacle of America toying with support for Ukraine, giving the wrong signal to other bad actors: China’s lust for Taiwan is well-known; Venezuela is headed toward the conquest of Guyana; Iran is backing terrorists who attack foreign vessels and wage war in Israel. The U.S. flicks its wrist to slow the attackers but does not leave a bruise. The global tyrannies look to Moscow and see that the protagonist of the dictatorial narrative, Putin, was right all along: Just be patient, persevere, exhaust the West, then do as you please.  

Russia, like its most intimate allies, is under crushing sanctions — something that Moscow has in common with illegal non-state actor allies such as drug cartels or Islamic terrorists. Putin, championing de-dollarization and the abandonment of the West’s financial mechanisms, hopes to provide a parallel means to do business for those who oppose the international rules-based-order. The very global system that the West built over hundreds of years is being fundamentally challenged by rogues that see how easily distracted the West has become. 

The good news? The global cabal of autocracies, narcos and terrorists has only one ringmaster: Russia’s Putin. If Putin, the lynchpin, is removed, the global network will be disordered. 

The West should strongly back those seeking to build a Putin-less world, starting with Russia’s democratic opposition. Facing troubles on the home front, Putin will not waste time in re-evaluating his priorities to prevent his own downfall. To suppress internal chaos, Putin would need to import Russian troops, now engaged abroad, across Russia so he could prevent counterrevolutions or the break-up of the Federation. Given a choice of entertaining fantasies of expanding Russia, or serving their self-interest, such as avoiding being toppled, Russian leaders are predictable.  

A “hardline” leader seizing the Kremlin post-Putin is improbable: Usurpers who come to power, without a plausible narrative justifying their claim to power, need to gain legitimacy, part of which comes from possessing the world’s largest nuclear stockpile while fighting-off challengers vying for the keys of the Kremlin, which would require Russia’s troops to be in Moscow.  

It’s time to force Russia to focus on its domestic situation, rather than steering Europe toward new catastrophes. More broadly, to stop the advance of dictatorships abroad, we must remove the keystone regime that is holding together and propelling their global expansion. 

Jason Smart, Ph.D., is a political adviser and special correspondent for Kyiv Post. 

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Its not too late to defeat Vladimir Putin but we must act now - The Hill

Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has called for more active support for Ukraine, given that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not set to stop his full-scale aggression in the near future.

Source: Borrell in an interview with The Guardian; European Pravda

Details: Borrell stressed that the existence of the European Union is at stake in Ukraine, so it is necessary to pay attention to the danger that comes from a powerful state and threatens European democracy.

Quote: "Putin has decided to continue the war until the final victory.

[Russias] success is dependent on bringing to the battlefield as many people as they can.

And if we dont change course rapidly, if we dont mobilise all our capacities, it will let Putin win the war in Ukraine."

More details: Borrell explained that the Russian president cannot be satisfied with a "piece of Ukraine" and allow the rest of the territory to belong to the European Union. In addition, Putin expects the US presidential election to create a more favourable scenario for him.

"So we must prepare for a conflict of high intensity for a long time," he said.

Borrell reiterated that Putin had miscalculated the strength of his army, the strength of the Ukrainian resistance and the Western world's reaction to his actions.

"Russia has never been able to become a nation. It was always an empire with the tsar, with the Soviets, and now with Putin. It is a constant of Russia, and its political identity, and as a result a threat to his neighbours and particularly to us," Borrell added.

Background: A few days ago, Borrell had already drawn attention to the danger of a Russian victory against Ukraine for the European Union project.

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Putin decides to fight till final victory EU chief diplomat - Yahoo News

Claims of signals from Russian President Vladimir Putin that he is interested in a ceasefire are more aimed at delaying and preventing further Western military aid for Ukraine.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: According to military analysts, Putin is not seriously interested in ending the war in any other way than a complete Russian victory.

The ISW has observed similar efforts by the Kremlin to mislead Western politicians into forcing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia in the winter of 2022-2023.

This was done to effectively redirect Western attention to hypothetical negotiations instead of providing Ukraine with sufficient weapons before its spring-summer counteroffensive.

The Kremlin is likely to use covert channels to achieve this effect amid debates over further military assistance to Ukraine.

Background:Russian President Vladimir Putin has been sending signals through intermediaries since at least September that he was ready to agree to a ceasefire in the war of aggression against Ukraine, which would include freezing hostilities on the current contact line.

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Putin's signals of readiness to stop war are being sent to prevent military aid ISW - Yahoo News

Were really pleased that youve read X Times of Israel articles in the past month.

Thats why we started the Times of Israel eleven years ago - to provide discerning readers like you with must-read coverage of Israel and the Jewish world.

So now we have a request. Unlike other news outlets, we havent put up a paywall. But as the journalism we do is costly, we invite readers for whom The Times of Israel has become important to help support our work by joining The Times of Israel Community.

For as little as $6 a month you can help support our quality journalism while enjoying The Times of Israel AD-FREE, as well as accessing exclusive content available only to Times of Israel Community members.

Thank you, David Horovitz, Founding Editor of The Times of Israel

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Putin tells Abbas he'll continue sending aid to Gaza, urges end to war - The Times of Israel

The New York Times has reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is signaling to the West that he would be willing to freeze the war in Ukraine along the current frontline and is waiting for a more concrete proposal.

Additionally, Putin had allegedly tested the waters for a ceasefire agreement back in fall 2022 after Ukraine routed the Russian army in the northeastern part of the country. At that time, Putin indicated that he was satisfied with the territory Russia had captured and was ready for a ceasefire, the NYT writes.

However, many politicians and experts have reacted skeptically to such statements, arguing that the Russian leader is trying to mislead the West.

Euromaidan Press analyzed what these information leaks actually mean.

The New York Timesreported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is signaling to Western nations through intermediaries. Despite his public commitment to Ukraines ongoing war, Putin is open to freezing the fighting along the current front line. The information comes from two former high-ranking Kremlin officials and unnamed American and international sources who received messages from Putins emissaries.

They say, We are ready to have negotiations on a ceasefire,'saidone senior international official who met with top Russian officials this fall. They want to stay where they are on the battlefield.

A key condition for Putin is the ability to declare victory, but he can already do so. Putins propaganda could easily spin the current status quo as a win, touting the land corridor to Crimea, an army that withstood Ukraines Western-backed counteroffensive, and Russias claimed annexation of four Ukrainian regions glossing over the fact that Russia does not fully control them.

At the same time, claims on the unoccupied parts of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts, the overthrow of the Zelenskyy administration, and even guarantees against Ukraines NATO membership none of these are dealbreakers for Putin.

The ideal timing would be before Russias presidential election in March. Putin is sure to secure another six-year term, but he cares about the election as a marker of his domestic support.

On the night of 25-26 October 2023, Putin also met with Russian marginal politician Grigory Yavlinsky, a sign of Putins openness to discussing a ceasefire, as per the NYT. Yavlinsky argued for the advantages of a truce and even volunteered as a negotiator during a 90-minute conversation with Putin.

The fact that he agreed to talk to me for so long speaks for itself,saidYavlinsky, born in Western Ukraine.

However, Putins attitude could shift if he believes the Russian military can still gain ground.

Additionally, Moscow aims to involve Washington in the negotiation process, but the US has never negotiated for Ukraine and is reluctant to do so now. It also remains uncertain whether Ukraines leadership will accept freezing the war if it means ceding 20% of the countrys territory.

Following the article in the NYT, Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, during a visit to Italian troops in Poland, stated that its time to actively pursue a political solution to end the war triggered by Russias invasion of Ukraine.

The war has been going on for almost two years now, and I think that, alongside and in parallel with military engagement and support for Ukraine, it is important to take paths that lead to a political solution,Crosettosaid.

Crosetto noted that while military actions have safeguarded Ukraine and fortified its borders, some objectives require diplomatic and political means for achievement.

The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the NYT article in its daily briefing. According to the analysts, Putin may demand a temporary ceasefire as it would provide Russia with time to prepare for a new aggression against Ukraine.

ISW highlights that in December 2023, Putin publicly stated that his goals in Ukraine, including denazification, demilitarization, and the imposition of a neutral status, remain unchanged.

Putins public rhetoric is at odds with Putins reported private desire to declare victory and move on. Neither the NYT nor its sources offered any reason to believe Putins backchannel communications would be more reflective of his goals than his public speeches,notedISW analytics.

Analysts argue that Putins signals to the West dont suggest a genuine interest in ending the war. Instead, they seem focused on impeding additional military aid from the West to Ukraine amidst ongoing debates in Western countries.

Many in the West are skeptical of a ceasefire because they say Putin would rearm for a future assault. EUs top diplomat, Josep Borrelll, stated that he sees no indication Vladimir Putin would accept any agreement allowing Ukraine to retain sovereignty over eastern areas.

Putin cannot be satisfied with a limited territorial victory. He will not give up the war, especially not before the American election. Putin has decided to continue the war until the final victory,Borrelll asserted.

Borrell described the war as a decisive moment for the European project and stressed the need for swift and unified EU action to aid Ukraine. This is required, he argues, to thwart Putins ambitions of total victory.

Borrelll attributed Russias grievances to its historical legacy.

Russia has never been able to become a nation. It was always an empire with the tsar, with the Soviets, and now with Putin. It is a constant of Russia, and its political identity, and as a result a threat to his neighbors and particularly to us,noted Borrelll.

Echoing Josep Borrelll, President Edgars Rinkevics of Latvia argued that Putin was committed to war because he dreams of re-establishing the empire.

They never honored any agreements,and they have violated them immediately when they saw it was convenient,Rinkevicssaidof the Russians.

Disagreeing with the NYT article is Alexander Vindman, former Director for European Affairs for the US National Security Council and a Kyiv native. He believes that behind it are individuals attempting to maintain an unofficial channel of negotiations with Moscow.

Not sure whats more offensive: the cowardice of former policymakers too scared to be on record so hiding behind preserving a back-channel, while having the ego to think they can deliver a peace deal or the useful idiots peddling the snake-oil of Putins peace,Vindmanwroteon Threads.

In his view, the NYT article reflects a profound misunderstanding of Russias war in Ukraine and an ignorance of Putin.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also said he saw no sign that Russia wanted to negotiate.

We just see brazen willingness to kill,hesaid.

New statements about the need for negotiations and Putins willingness to engage in them come amid a stalemate on the frontlines in Ukraine, where the war has turned into a positional one. Against the backdrop of the Wests hesitancy to provide military assistance, calls for a transition to a defensive strategy are being voiced in Kyiv.

However, there is still some news from the front: this week, the Ukrainian army sensationally shot down three Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers in a single day. While the exact circumstances remain unknown, it is speculated that the American Patriot air defense system was involved. The loss of three bombers at once has already led Russia to reduce the number of airstrikes on Ukrainian territory,accordingto Yurii Ihnat, the spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force.

Additionally, the Netherlandsannouncedpreparations to transfer 18 F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW)suggested that Ukraine will likely receive the initial batch of F-16s before the close of 2023.Accordingto one of Russias most famous milbloggers, Rybar, a squadron of F-16s is already in Ukraine. One way or another, Kyiv is about to significantly strengthen its position on the frontline, at least regarding air support for ground troops.

The Russian army, for its part, also remains stagnant. However, the Kremlin has no intention of stopping. To make a tangible change, Moscow needs additional resources and time. The question is whether the respite Russia wants is measured in years or months.

In any case, Putins willingness to agree to a ceasefire without insisting on Kyiv abandoning NATO aspirations stems from the need to accumulate strength. The Kremlins likely goal is to conquer Ukraine before it formally joins the Alliance, as despite applying over a year ago, Kyiv still has yet to receive a formal invitation. Thwarting Putins plans requires a united Western stance, and the decision on further assistance to Ukraine in January-February 2024 will reveal whether Western countries are prepared to provide such support.

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Putin wants to freeze war in Ukraine, claims NYT. Should we believe it? - Euromaidan Press

Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin shows no willingness to participate in Ukraine negotiations, the new German ambassador to Russia, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, told news agency Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland in his first interview since assuming his post, published Dec. 22.

"Putin has just confirmed his military goals," he said, noting a diffuse yearning for peace among the Russian population.

Read also: Putin wants combat lasers, AI robots for Russian military

There are no signs that Putin will change his position after the presidential elections in March 2024. The regime feels stable and comfortable, and there is no evidence to confirm rumors of the dictator's "poor health."

Lambsdorff supports the strengthening of EU sanctions against Russia as an effective measure, but warns not to expect immediate results.

Read also: Russia's arm production and stockpiles not in best shape Military Intelligence

"Sanctions are not a light switch... You cannot impose sanctions and immediately change the behavior of the sanctioned party, he explained.

Sanctions are there to show the price for certain behavior. And this is happening visibly."

Russia has no intention of abandoning its objectives in Ukraine, Putin told the Russian Defense Ministry on Dec. 19. In response, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu noted that "all the tasks set by the Russian Armed Forces for 2023 have been completed" and announced plans to expand the countrys armed forces to 1.5 million personnel.

Russia is formulating a new medium-term war plan, aiming to extend combat operations in Ukraine for another 36 months and capture major cities, according to a Dec. 14 report by the German newspaper BILD, which cites intelligence sources.

BILD writes that Russia's strategic goals by the end of 2024 include the complete occupation of Ukraines Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and parts of Kharkiv Oblast, extending to the Oskil River. Russian forces then plan to conquer significant areas of the Zaporizhzhya, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts by the end of 2026, including the strategic cities of Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhya, the report says.

Read also: Putin parrots worn propaganda tropes at first public call-in marathon since 2021

At the same time, Ukraines Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) head, Kyrylo Budanov, said that Russia does not currently intend to wage war in 2025.

On Dec. 19, HUR spokesman Andriy Yusov said that Russia has ramped up production of missiles and drones beyond pre-invasion levels. Nevertheless, Yusov noted, these volumes will not permit Moscow to amass a significant stockpile of long-range weapons.

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Putin shows no willingness to negotiate, says German ambassador to Russia - Yahoo News