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Daily Archives: December 14, 2023
In Russia’s Kaliningrad, isolation and diminished threat to NATO – Stars and Stripes
Posted: December 14, 2023 at 3:39 am
Fishing village on a sunset background in Kaliningrad, Russia. (iStock)
VILNIUS, Lithuania Train passengers traveling between Moscow and Kaliningrad, Russias militarized exclave, are confronted with the carnage Russia is inflicting on Ukraine every time they pass through this nations capital.
There, on both sides of the track on platform No. 5 of Vilnius central railway station, they are prompted to look at 24 large graphic photos from Russias war against its smaller neighbor.
Today Putin is killing peaceful civilians in Ukraine, the writing on the photos reads. Do you agree with this?
On a recent morning, a few passengers headed to Kaliningrad from Moscow looked out toward the display as the train paused for a 30-minute technical stop. One woman closed the curtains on her window.
From Vilnius, the train will pass through the so-called Suwaki Gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus, a 60-mile-long strip of land along the Lithuania-Poland border that has long inspired fear in the Baltics and among NATOs planners.
Belarus hosted war games near the area in August, offering an alarming reminder to some military strategists of how a revanchist Russia could partner with Belarus to cut off the three Baltic nations once under Moscows rule Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from the rest of NATO.
Train passengers traveling between Moscow and Kaliningrad pass through the central railway station in Vilnius, Lithuania, where they are greeted with a display of graphic photos from Russias war in Ukraine. The photo reads: Today Putin is killing peaceful civilians in Ukraine. Do you agree with this? (Svetlana Shkolnikova/Stars and Stripes)
But for now, the only connection between Russias pliant ally and Russias outpost on the Baltic Sea are train tracks carrying both Russian people and goods through European Union and NATO territory.
Kaliningrad, a former part of Germany that was taken by the Soviet Union as a spoil of World War II, finds itself increasingly isolated amid Russias war in Ukraine as neighboring countries restrict its residents movement, NATO adds members, and the Kremlin focuses its attention on waging war.
Those who live in Kaliningrad have always felt like theyre on an island and now its an even bigger feeling, said Alexei Chabounine, a 53-year-old journalist with the Kaliningrad-based news site Russian West. There is a general feeling of being locked in.
Britains defense ministry reported last month that Russia likely moved strategic air defenses from Kaliningrad to backfill recent losses on the Ukraine front, demonstrating the overstretch the war has caused for Russian capabilities.
Still, Kaliningrad remains a source of power projection for the Kremlin into NATOs northern flank and one of the most militarized places in Russia, home to the Baltic Fleet as well as nuclear-capable Iskander missiles and other powerful armaments.
The Ukraine war has left a mark on Kaliningrad, Chabounine said. About 5,000 of the regions population of 1 million have been mobilized to fight in Ukraine, and estimates by locals put the death toll at around 450 people. Their graves occupy not just military cemeteries, but civilian ones, too.
The exclaves authorities seldom speak about the dead, but they do talk about how Kaliningrad is helping the war effort, Chabounine said. The region is providing quadcopters, camouflage nets and clothes and allocating a significant portion of its 2024 budget to help finance the war. Soldiers who signed contracts with the army will be paid an additional 100,000 rubles, or about $1,111, he said.
(Noga Ami-rav/Stars and Stripes)
When asked if the people of Kaliningrad support the war, Chabounine said he could not answer without violating Russias war-time censorship laws.
People try to avoid the topic of the special military operation, they try to live like before, he said, using the Kremlins approved language for its invasion of Ukraine. People try to hold on and live a regular life.
Russia is pouring money into Kaliningrad to help blunt the impact of Western sanctions, and investment in the exclaves vast military infrastructure continues, Chabounine said. But there is no construction of fortifications or preparations for an expanded war that would bring Russia into conflict with NATO.
Even if Russia attacks the Baltics, there will be nothing left of Kaliningrad. Theres no way to defend it well be blockaded, he said. The authorities say they will defend us, but truth be told, I dont see that happening.
The threat from Kaliningrad has receded with Russia mired in Ukraine and NATO welcoming Finland, and likely Sweden, into its ranks, experts say. Russias goal of turning Kaliningrad into a launching pad to dominate the Baltics has effectively been canceled, according to a November report published by the French Institute of International Relations.
With the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, the Baltic theater is reconfigured so profoundly to Russias disadvantage that no amount of effort could make Fortress Kaliningrad defensible, the report states.
Eerik Purgel, head of the border and migration control service in Estonias northeastern region bordering Russia, said Estonia is thrilled to see brother nation Finland in the military alliance and is eagerly awaiting the accession of Sweden.
The Baltic Sea will become the NATO Sea, he said.
Russia has long been preparing for the eventuality of Kaliningrad getting cut off from the Russian mainland, said Tomas Jermalaviius, head of studies at the Estonia-based International Centre for Defence and Security think tank.
Moscow in recent years has tested Kaliningrads capacity to operate its own power grid and installed a floating gas terminal to lessen Kaliningrads dependence on pipelines that run through Lithuania, he said. The terminal has enough storage space to supply Kaliningrad for a month, according to Chabounine.
Obviously they have a sense that this might become a very isolated part of Russia in a major crisis, Jermalaviius said.
(Noga Ami-rav/Stars and Stripes)
The Kaliningrad exclave, located more than 200 miles from mainland Russia, has always stood a bit apart from the rest of the country, said Sergey Sukhankin, a Kaliningrad native and senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a defense think tank.
It was populated by a mix of people from across the Soviet Union after World War II, and its residents prided themselves on being not entirely Russian and a part of Russias Europe, he said. Cross-border travel, especially to neighboring Poland, became frequent after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
But ties to Europe began to fray with Russias first incursion into Ukraine in 2014. Authorities in Kaliningrad cracked down on German and Lithuanian cultural institutions, seeking to erase traces of the exclaves pre-Soviet past. Last summer, after a transit dispute with Lithuania, a Kaliningrad court shut down the Lithuanian Language Teachers Association, a prominent Lithuanian group in the region.
Today, if you ask the locals, the majority would say that the West poses an existential threat to Kaliningrad, Sukhankin said. How they think is very much in line with the rhetoric that is promoted by the Kremlin.
Not everyone agrees with that characterization. Polish politician Radosaw Sikorski last year advocated for the easing of travel limitations on the residents of Kaliningrad, calling the exclaves residents the most Putin-skeptic in Russia.
Baltic Russians are a hope for their countrys future, he wrote on X, formerly Twitter.
For years, there has been agitation among some fringe elements in Kaliningrad to form an autonomous Baltic Republic and possibly secede from Russia. The Baltic Republican Party was founded explicitly for that purpose in 1993 before being dissolved by Russia in 2003.
One of its members, Rustam Vasiliev, continues to champion the groups cause, even after immigrating from Kaliningrad to the United States nearly a decade ago. He envisions Kaliningrad as a Europe-leaning republic with Knigsberg, the citys former German name, as its capital.
Perhaps fallout from the Ukraine war could set the stage for such a split, he said.
The region is like a heavy suitcase without a handle for the Kremlin, Vasiliev said. It is inconvenient to carry, but the Kremlin is too greedy to drop it and walk away. What will be in the future only God knows.
People gather to watch a festive parade marking the 750th anniversary of Kaliningrad, Russias westernmost city, on July 1, 2005. (Sergey Ponomarev/AP)
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Fears of a NATO Withdrawal Rise as Trump Seeks a Return to Power – Yahoo News
Posted: at 3:39 am
For 74 years, the NATO has been Americas most important military alliance. Presidents of both parties have seen NATO as a force multiplier enhancing the influence of the United States by uniting countries on both sides of the Atlantic in a vow to defend one another.
Donald Trump has made it clear that he sees NATO as a drain on U.S. resources by freeloaders. He has held that view for at least a quarter-century.
In his 2000 book, The America We Deserve, Trump wrote that pulling back from Europe would save this country millions of dollars annually. As president, he repeatedly threatened a U.S. withdrawal from the alliance.
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Yet as he runs to regain the White House, Trump has said precious little about his intentions. His campaign website contains a single cryptic sentence: We have to finish the process we began under my administration of fundamentally reevaluating NATOs purpose and NATOs mission. He and his team refuse to elaborate.
That vague line has generated enormous uncertainty and anxiety among European allies and American supporters of the countrys traditional foreign policy role.
European ambassadors and think tank officials have been making pilgrimages to associates of Trump to inquire about his intentions. At least one ambassador, Finlands Mikko Hautala, has reached out directly to Trump and sought to convince him of his countrys value to NATO as a new member, according to two people familiar with the conversations.
In interviews over the past several months, more than a half-dozen current and former European diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution from Trump should he win said alarm was rising on Embassy Row and among their home governments that Trumps return could mean not just the abandonment of Ukraine but a broader U.S. retreat from the continent and a gutting of the Atlantic alliance.
There is great fear in Europe that a second Trump presidency would result in an actual pullout of the United States from NATO, said James Stavridis, a retired four-star Navy admiral who was NATOs supreme allied commander from 2009 to 2013. That would be an enormous strategic and historic failure on the part of our nation.
Formed after World War II to keep the peace in Europe and act as a bulwark against the Soviet Union, NATO evolved into an instrument through which the U.S. works with allies on military issues around the world. Its original purpose the heart of which is the collective-defense provision, known as Article V, that states that an armed attack on any member shall be considered an attack against them all lives on, especially for newer members like Poland and the Baltic States that were once dominated by the Soviet Union and continue to fear Russia.
The interviews with current and former diplomats revealed that European officials were mostly out of ideas for how to deal with Trump other than returning to a previous playbook of flattery and transactional tributes.
Smaller countries that are more vulnerable to Russian attacks are expected to try to buy their way into Trumps good graces by increasing their orders of U.S. weapons or as Poland did during his term by performing grand acts of adulation, including offering to name a military base Fort Trump in return for his placing a permanent presence there.
At this point in the campaign, Trump is focused on the criminal cases against him and on defeating his Republican primary rivals, and he rarely talks about the alliance, even in private.
As he maintains a broad lead in his campaign to become the Republican nominee, the implications for Americas oldest and most critical military alliance are not clearly advertised plans from Trump, but a turmoil of widely held suspicions charged with unknowability.
Ukraine
Amid those swirling doubts, one thing is likely: The first area where Trumps potential return to the White House in 2025 could provoke a foreign policy crisis is for Ukraine and the alliance of Western democracies that have been supporting its defense against Russias invasion.
Helping Ukraine stave off the attempted Russian conquest has become a defining NATO effort. Ukraine is not a NATO member but has remained an independent country because of NATO support.
Camille Grand, who was NATOs assistant secretary-general for defense investment early in the war, said that how Trump handled Ukraine would be the first big test case that Europeans would use to assess how reliable an ally or not he might be in a second term.
Will he throw Zelenskyy under the bus in the first three months of his term? Grand, now at the European Council on Foreign Relations, asked, referring to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump has repeatedly declared that he would somehow settle the war in 24 hours. He has not said how, but he has coupled that claim with suggestions that he could have prevented the war by making a deal in which Ukraine simply ceded to Russia its eastern lands that President Vladimir Putin has illegally seized.
Zelenskyy has said Ukraine would never agree to cede any of its lands to Russia as part of a peace deal. But Trump would have tremendous leverage over Ukraines government. The United States has supplied huge quantities of vital weapons, ammunition and intelligence to Ukraine. European countries have pledged the most economic assistance to Ukraine but could not make up the shortfall if America stopped sending military aid.
Some of Trumps congressional allies, who have followed his lead in preaching an America First mantra, already oppose sending further military assistance to Ukraine. And in a broader sign of waning support, Senate Republicans last week blocked an emergency spending bill to further fund the war in Ukraine after demanding unrelated immigration policy concessions from Democrats as a condition of passing it.
But even if Congress appropriates further aid, Trump could withhold delivery of it as he did in 2019 when trying to coerce Zelenskyy into announcing a criminal investigation into Joe Biden, the abuse-of-power scandal that led to Trumps first impeachment.
Against that backdrop, Russias battlefield strategy for now appears to be biding its time; it is carrying out attacks when it sees opportunities to tie up Ukrainian forces but is not making paradigm-shifting moves or negotiating, officials said. That stasis raises the possibility that Putin has calculated he could be in a much better position after the U.S. 2024 election.
Everybody Owes Us Money
Trump likes to brag that he privately told leaders of NATO countries that if Russia attacked them and they had not paid the money they owed to NATO and to the United States, he would not defend them. He claimed at a rally in October that after he had declared that everybody owes us money and was delinquent, he made that threat at a meeting, and hundreds of billions of dollars came flowing in.
That story is garbled at best.
There was a spending-related dispute, but it was over Europeans meeting their spending commitments to their own militaries, not money they somehow owed to NATO or to the United States. They did increase military spending during the Trump administration although by nowhere near the amounts Trump has claimed. And their spending rose significantly more in 2023, in response to Russias invasion of Ukraine.
But Trumps exuberance for retelling his story, coupled with his past displeasure with NATO, is giving fresh alarm to NATO supporters.
Pressed by The New York Times to explain what he means by fundamentally reevaluating NATOs mission and purpose, Trump provided a rambling statement that contained no clear answer but expressed skepticism about alliances.
It is the obligation of every U.S. president to ensure that Americas alliances serve to protect the American people, and do not recklessly endanger American blood and treasure, Trumps statement read.
Some Trump supporters who are pro-NATO have argued that Trump is bluffing. They said he was merely looking to put more pressure on the Europeans to spend more on their own defense.
Hes not going to do that, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. and a Trump supporter, said of the prospect of Trumps withdrawing from NATO. But what he will do is, he will make people pay more, and I think that will be welcome news to a lot of folks.
Robert OBrien, who served as Trumps final national security adviser, echoed that view.
President Trump withdrawing from NATO is an issue that some people in D.C. discuss, but I dont believe its a real thing, OBrien said. He understands the military value of the alliance to America, but he just feels correctly, I might add like were getting played by the Germans and other nations that refuse to pay their fair share for their own defense.
But John Bolton, a conservative hawk who served as national security adviser from 2018 to 2019, wrote in his memoir that Trump had to be repeatedly talked out of withdrawing from NATO. In an interview, Bolton said there is no doubt in my mind that in a second term, Trump would withdraw the United States from NATO.
As a legal matter, whether Trump could unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO is likely to be contested.
The Constitution requires Senate consent to ratify a treaty but omits procedures to annul one. This has led to debate about whether presidents can do so on their own or need lawmakers authorization. There are only a few court precedents regarding the issue, none definitive.
Decisions to revoke treaties by President Jimmy Carter in 1978 and by President George W. Bush in 2001 led members of Congress to file lawsuits that were rejected by courts, partly on the grounds that the disputes were a political question for the elected branches to work out. While the legal precedents are not perfectly clear, both of those presidents effectively won: The treaties are widely understood to be void. Still, any attempt to withdraw from NATO would likely invite a broader challenge.
In reaction to Trumps threats, some lawmakers led by Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. put a provision in the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which Congress is likely to vote on this month. It says the president shall not withdraw the United States from NATO without congressional approval. But whether the Constitution permits such a tying of a presidents hands is also contestable.
And European diplomats say that even if Trump were to nominally keep the United States in NATO, they fear that he could so undermine trust in the U.S. reliability to live up to the collective-defense provision that its value as a deterrent to Russia would be lost.
A Transactional Attitude
The uncertainty stemming from Trumps maximalist and yet vague rhetoric is bound up in his past displays of consistent skepticism about NATO and of unusual solicitude to Russia.
As a candidate in 2016, Trump rattled NATO allies by saying that if Russia attacked the Baltic States, he would decide whether to come to their aid only after reviewing whether they had fulfilled their obligations to us. He also repeatedly praised Putin and said he would consider recognizing Russias illegal annexation of Crimea.
As president in July 2018, Trump not only nearly withdrew from NATO at an alliance summit but also denounced the European Union as a foe because of what they do to us in trade. He then attended a summit with Putin, after which he expressed skepticism about the idea that the United States should go to war to defend a tiny NATO ally, Montenegro.
With no prior experience in the military or government, Trump brought a transactional, mercantilist attitude to interactions with allies. He tended to base his views of foreign nations on his personal relationships with their leaders and on trade imbalances.
Trump particularly disliked Angela Merkel, the former German chancellor, and often complained that German automakers were flooding America with their products. His defenders say his anger was in some ways justified: Germany hadnt been meeting its military spending commitments, and over his objections, Merkel pushed ahead with a natural gas pipeline to Russia. Germany only suspended that project two days before Russia invaded Ukraine.
Trumps allies also point out that he approved sending anti-tank weapons to Ukraine, which President Barack Obama had not done after Russia seized Crimea in 2014.
Still, in 2020, Trump decided to withdraw one-third of the 36,000 U.S. troops stationed in Germany. Some were to come home, as he preferred, with others redeployed elsewhere in Europe. But the following year, as Russia built up troops on Ukraines border, Biden canceled the decision and added troops in Germany as a show of support for NATO.
A Supportive Movement
If he returns to power, Trump will be backed by a conservative movement that has become more skeptical of allies and of U.S. involvement abroad.
Anti-interventionist foreign policy institutes are more organized and better funded than they were during Trumps time in office. Those groups include the Center for Renewing America, a Trump-aligned think tank that published a paper titled Pivoting the U.S. Away From Europe to a Dormant NATO, which provides a rationale for minimizing Americas role in NATO.
On Nov. 1, the Heritage Foundation a traditionally hawkish conservative think tank that has lately refashioned itself in a Trumpist mold on matters including opposition to aid to Ukraine hosted a delegation from the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The Europeans exchanged views with ardent nationalists, including Michael Anton, a National Security Council official in the Trump administration; Dan Caldwell, who managed foreign policy at the Center for Renewing America; and national security aides to Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, and other Trump-aligned senators.
According to two people who attended, Anton told the Europeans he could imagine Trump setting an ultimatum: If NATO members did not sufficiently increase their military spending by a deadline, he would withdraw the United States from the alliance.
As the meeting broke up, Eckart von Klaeden, a former German politician who is now a Mercedes-Benz Group executive, implored Anton to ask Trump to please talk to Americas European allies as he formulated his foreign policy.
That seems like wishful thinking.
In his statement to the Times, Trump invoked his slogan America First a phrase once popularized by American isolationists opposed to getting involved in World War II.
My highest priority, Trump said in the statement, has always been, and will remain, to America first the defense of our own country, our own borders, our own values, and our own people, including their jobs and well-being.
c.2023 The New York Times Company
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Fears of a NATO Withdrawal Rise as Trump Seeks a Return to Power - Yahoo News
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France is beefing up its support at NATO’s eastern flank – The Economist
Posted: at 3:39 am
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Our correspondent joins the French air force on a mission in the Baltics, seeing increasing support for NATO just as the country draws down in Africa. Drones have by now become a standard feature of warfare, but in Gaza the demands are differentand Israel has much expertise to draw upon (09:36). And artificial intelligence predicts the structures of 2m brand-new materials (16:38). Runtime: 22 min
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France is beefing up its support at NATO's eastern flank - The Economist
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NATO impressed by Israel’s genocide tech – The Electronic Intifada
Posted: at 3:39 am
NATOs Rob Bauer (left) visited representatives of the Gaza division in Israels military shortly before the current war was declared. (Via Twitter)
A few people are profiting handsomely from the genocidal war against Gaza.
Elbit Systems, a leading Israeli weapons maker, has reported a considerable increased demand for its products since the war was declared.
About 15 percent of Elbits workforce in Israel has been called up by the military.
Even with reduced staff, the firm is ready to exploit the opportunities afforded by mass slaughter. Not only is it anticipating fresh orders from Israels defense ministry, it is endeavoring to keep international clients satisfied.
Within the past three weeks, Elbit has announced new deals with Canada and Romania.
Both of those countries belong to NATO.
Israel, on the other hand, is nominally outside the alliance. Yet Israels cooperation with NATO is flourishing.
Back in January, Elbit clinched a contract with the NATO Support and Procurement Agency. Under it, Elbit supplies warplane equipment and runs a service center at the agencys headquarters in Luxembourg.
Through a 2018 deal, the agency acts as a conduit through which Israel can sell weapons to NATO members. The arrangement has proven beneficial for Israel, Haim Regev, the states ambassador to the European Union and NATO indicated earlier this year.
Regev accompanied Mircea Geoana, NATOs deputy secretary general, on a trip to Israel in September.
The launch appears to have been postponed amid the Gaza genocide.
I contacted NATO, asking whether the launch would take place once the situation was regarded as calmer. The alliances spokesperson did not answer my question.
Rob Bauer, the Dutch admiral chairing NATOs military committee, also visited Israel in September.
Bauer declared himself impressed by the capabilities of the Gaza division in Israels army. He expressed particular interest in how artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics were being applied in monitoring what he called border crossings.
A NATO representative was, in effect, praising Israel for blockading a civilian population with the aid of advanced technology.
Read a few months later, the message looks even more sinister.
The website +972 Magazine has revealed that Israel is using AI to choose targets in its current war against Gaza.
It is improbable that the AI system serving that deadly purpose is entirely separate from the one that impressed Bauer in the recent past. Not surprisingly, NATO would not answer a question I asked about whether Israel is keeping it updated on the use of AI in the current war.
While meeting Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, during September, NATOs Mircea Geoana stressed a strong interest in building upon the exceptional technological sophistication of your great nation.
Israel is now carrying out a genocide with the aid of its exceptional technology. We can expect that it will be congratulated for doing so by NATOs ever-so-sophisticated elite.
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Ukraine will get the US aid it needs, former Nato envoy predicts – The National
Posted: at 3:39 am
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will ultimately get the US funds his country desperately needs to continue to fight Russia's invasion, a former US ambassador to Nato has predicted.
Mr Zelenskyy left Washington empty-handed this week after Republicans made additional Ukraine funding contingent on President Joe Biden's administration toughening its immigration stance on the US-Mexico border.
Still, Kurt Volker, who served as US special representative for Ukraine negotiations from 2017 to 2019 and as George W Bush's Nato ambassador from 2008 to 2009, told The National that there is enough bipartisan consensus on Capitol Hill to approve billions more dollars for Kyiv in the new year.
It is so much in the US interest to support this aid to Ukraine, Mr Volker said. There's a very substantial majority in both chambers [of Congress] that gets it. I'm very optimistic that it will pass, but probably not until they reconvene in January.
The US Congress has approved more than $110 billion for Ukraine since Russia's February 2022 invasion, but no new funds since Republicans took control of the House from Democrats in January. The new funding package under consideration includes another $61 billion for Ukraine as well as money for Israel and border security.
Mr Volker, who is a distinguished fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis, added that the Biden administration had initially been too intransigent in its approach to Ukraine funding, insisting on portraying the issue as a battle for Ukraine's and the West's survival instead of sitting down sooner to seek compromise with Republicans on border security, which remains a top concern among conservative voters.
How can [Republican politicians] go home and tell their voters they voted to give all this money to Ukraine and Israel, but did not do anything about our own security at home? he said.
The White House told Congress this month that the government will run out of Ukraine military assistance at the end of the year.
Ukrainian soldiers from the 60th Battalion of Territorial Defense
This week marks 100 days of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which began in the early hours of Sunday, June 4. Getty Images
Republicans have sounded a pessimistic tone when it comes to Ukraine's chances of beating Russia, pointing to the slow progress of this year's counter-offensive, and have argued that the US should not be allocating more money for a lost cause.
But Mr Volker said Russia's capability to stay in the fight has been overstated, with Moscow forced to rely on old North Korean munitions and drones from Iran while conscripts are dying in huge numbers.
And crucially, Russia has dedicated about 45 per cent of its budget to the military effort, many times more than what the West is spending on the conflict.
That is a huge and unsustainable level of spending, but they're doing it now as a short-term measure because they think if they do, they can outlast the West, Mr Volker said.
The US has far deeper pockets and support for Ukraine so far represents a fraction of the Pentagon's $840 billion budget.
Newly declassified US intelligence shows that Russia seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Moscow the advantage, Adrienne Watson, White House National Security Council spokeswoman, told reporters this week.
Mr Volker said Ukraine had eliminated half of the Russian military so far and estimated that 100,000 Russian troops have been killed since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with another 300,000 wounded. He said Ukraine's losses had been smaller.
The diplomat added that the US has many more tools at its disposal to help Ukraine, including by running freedom of navigation and demining operations in the Black Sea. The US should also stop limiting the range of the Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) it has provided Ukraine, something Mr Volker sees as hampering Kyiv's capabilities.
The US has been careful to avoid sending weapons that Russia could argue is a direct threat to its homeland.
Mr Volker also said the US needs to take more of a leadership role in pushing for Ukraine to join Nato.
The alliance worries such a move would be overly provocative to Russia and could even trigger a broader war with the West were Nato's Article 5 mutual defence clause to be invoked but Mr Volker argued this rationale is a fallacy that only encourages Russian President Vladimir Putin to keep fighting.
Updated: December 14, 2023, 6:19 AM
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‘Ukraine will become a member of NATO when all allies agree, and conditions are met’ Biden – Yahoo News
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Ukraine will become a member of NATO, Joe Biden assured at a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House on Dec.12.
Read also: Biden set to host Zelenskyy at White House amidst aid crisis
I'm very proud about how strong and unified NATO has become and now it's even larger, said Biden.
NATO will be in Ukraine's future, no question about that. But we as we said in Vilnius, Ukraine will become a member of NATO when all allies agree, and conditions are met. Right now, we have to make sure that Ukraine wins the war, he said.
G7 leaders outlined a long-term commitment to supporting Ukraine's defense needs in Vilnius, said Biden.
Read also: Biden, Zelenskyy to discuss Ukraine aid crisis in White House talks
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NATO’s Strategy Of Constructive Anarchism Fuels Endless Wars OpEd – Eurasia Review
Posted: at 3:39 am
The ongoing war in Gaza reveals the futility of trying to solve a crisis without addressing its root causes. The US approach to crisis resolution has relied on harsh military and coercive methods to deal with various security-strategic and political challenges. The American international order has a simple rule: any change and transformation that creates a new game, a new plan and a new international order must be achieved by an all-out war. However, recent events such as the withdrawal from Afghanistan, NATOs expansion in the east and Russias provocation of war in Ukraine, the attempts to trigger a war with China over Taiwan and the naval blockade of this rival country, the unresolved wars and crises in different regions, and the latest Israeli aggression on Gaza, all indicate a grand strategy: NATOs constructive anarchism.
NATOs constructive anarchism strategy has several aspects. The first one is the undermining of international organizations that were supposed to provide multilateral solutions and security guarantees. For example, the United Nations Security Council has lost its ability to build a global consensus on a common threat to global peace and stability and has become a venue for rivals to veto each others plans to end wars and ensure security. This signifies the end of the collective security system, where no security phenomenon, war, or peace is seen as a common interest of all, and there is no single interpretation of any crisis that aims to resolve it. In this situation, if an international order is defined as a written or unwritten agreement among its parties to protect it and accept its common norms and values, we can confidently say that we are in a period of disorder and pervasive anarchism. In this period, we face not one order, but multiple overlapping and competing orders, and instead of multilateralism at the global level, we see intersecting coalitions and alliances that cannot reach a single agreement.
The second aspect is that in this situation, the US is not interested in resolving issues through international organizations and rules. Instead, Washington tries to align their NATO allies and use their combined military force to fight and maintain the current order. In other words, in a strategy based on constructive anarchism, the goal of the US military campaign is not to create a new order but to preserve the existing one. In this case, NATOs constructive anarchism aims to eliminate three competitors: ideologically asymmetric groups that oppose the status quo; Russia, which is weakened by the war in Ukraine and could be fully dominated after Putins fall; and China, which is the main rival of this order.
Meanwhile, the occupation of the Palestinian lands and the disregard for the two-state solution have led to the Gaza war. This is an unsolvable crisis that aims to weaken the Islamic-Arab countries, destroy the Palestinian resistance groups, and eliminate the Israeli problem in the Islamic world. On the other hand, on the Ukrainian front, the strategy of constructive anarchism has successfully dragged Russia into a costly war of attrition, and the Americans claim that the goal of the war is to end Russias military power. Russia, which is NATOs buffer zone with China, and its fall could pave the way for NATOs global strategy, which is seen by Western strategists as the downfall of China. Meanwhile, the Chinese are well aware of the completion of the puzzle that outlines their demise. In this scenario, peace is not a priority.
The escalation of these wars shows that the Americans and their allies do not benefit from peace and their desired order cannot be achieved peacefully. Therefore, they are implementing a new strategy to eliminate their opponents rather than contain and control them. In this strategy, NATOs constructive anarchism tries to revive the previous order based on fear and violence with a new form ofthe chaos and the tools of war.
The deployment of NATO fleets following the Americans in the Mediterranean and the Middle East and the opening of a new front in the Middle East along with Europe has made war the norm of the current situation, a war which, according to the White Houses usual practice, is synonymous with American peace. This is where we do not have a single and inclusive global peace, but a fragmented and contested peace among the Americans, Russians, and Chinese, which is vetoed and collapsed every time in a meeting. A peace that does not bring order, but is replaced by war. The wars that are creating a NATO out of disorder.
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NATO agrees 2024 Budgets, demonstrating Allied Solidarity – Sarajevo Times
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Allies agreed NATOs civil and military budgets for 2024 at a meeting of the North Atlantic Council on Wednesday (13 December 2023). The civil budget is set at 438.1 million, and the military budget is set at 2.03 billion, representing a 18.2% and 12% increase respectively over 2023.
NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoan highlighted that increasing and broadening the use of NATO common funding allows Allies to more effectively address shared security challenges. Common funding demonstrates Allied solidarity and collective will. In turbulent times, we need this more than ever, he said.
At the Madrid Summit in 2022, Allies agreed to invest more together in NATO, in response to rising global competition and threats to Euro-Atlantic security caused by Russias war of aggression against Ukraine. At the Vilnius Summit in 2023, NATO leaders took further steps to strengthen NATOs deterrence and defence and committed to ensuring that these decisions are adequately resourced. They reaffirmed their enduring commitment to a strong transatlantic bond, unity and cohesion at a critical time for global peace and security.
NATOs civil budget provides funds for personnel, operating costs, and programme expenditures of NATOs Headquarters and its international staff. The military budget covers the operating costs of NATO Command Structure headquarters, missions, and operations around the world. NATOs third principal common funded element is the NATO Security Investment Programme (NSIP), which covers major construction, and command and control system investments. The 2024 ceiling for the NSIP is 1.3 billion, representing a 30% increase over 2023.
Common-funded budgets strengthen NATO, providing major capabilities, enabling deterrence, defence and interoperability, and supporting consultation and decision-making at the highest levels. NATO is committed to providing security in a way that is effective, transparent, and financially responsible.
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NATO agrees 2024 Budgets, demonstrating Allied Solidarity - Sarajevo Times
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NATO Raises Concerns Over Proposed Menthol Ban With Federal Officials – CSNews Online
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WASHINGTON, D.C. After indicating that it will not publish final rules to ban menthol cigarettes and characterizing flavors in cigars until at least March 2024, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) continues to face opposition from a variety of sources. This time, the pushback is coming from the National Association of Tobacco Outlets (NATO).
Last week, NATO met with representatives from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Executive Office of the President, the FDA and the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to advocate that the final rulings not be published.
In its meeting with federal officials, NATO argued publication of the rulings would:
It also argued that licensed and regulated retailers, like NATO's members, sell tobacco products responsibly and are in compliance with all laws and regulations, which already prevents youth access to menthol cigarettes and flavored cigars.
In October more than a year after theFDA first announcedits intention to ban menthol the group submitted a final product standardthat would prohibit the use of menthol in cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco and heated tobacco products to the OMB for final review. This is step eight of the nine-step federal rulemaking process.During the review process, OMB evaluates whether to clear the rule for final publication or send it back to FDA for further review.
During the review process, the Administration and federal agencies evaluate the rules and meet with interested stakeholders to consider policy arguments around the cost and benefits of the rules, among other topics.According to OMB's Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs website dashboard, OMB has taken or scheduled more than 50 meetings through Jan. 11, 2024, with tobacco retailers, manufacturers, wholesalers, trade associations, policy groups, tobacco control organizations and other stakeholders.
[Read more:Small Operator Trade Groups Rally Against Proposed Menthol Ban]
The FDA's Center for Tobacco Products has stated that finalizing these rules remains a top priority for the agency.If these rules are finalized, they will likely not be effective for at least one year following publication.This effective date could be further delayed if the rules are challenged in court by the industry, NATO reported.
The FDA previously targeted August 2023 for publication of the final rules.
NATO is a national trade association organized to enhance the common business interests of all tobacco retailers, and to monitor and assist members in responding to tobacco-related legislation on the local, state and federal levels.
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NATO Raises Concerns Over Proposed Menthol Ban With Federal Officials - CSNews Online
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NATO scouts for defense startups with help of three Boston women – The Boston Globe
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In the US, several initiatives have been launched to help the armed services connect and contract with startups working on promising technologies. But, Murray explained, If only the US does this, are the other allies going to be left behind? Can we level up the rest of NATO?
In laying the groundwork for the new NATO programs, Murray said, NATO officials visited organizations around the world that were set up to support startups, including MassChallenge, a startup competition based in Boston, MITs The Engine venture capital fund and startup incubator, and an Air Force backed startup accelerator program, AFWERX, which operated in Boston for several years. They also spoke with investors at IQT, a venture capital fund affiliated with the CIA, which has a Waltham office.
NATO, headquartered in Brussels, likes acronyms. So, its startup scouting and funding activities have introduced two new ones: DIANA, the Defense Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, and NIF, the NATO Innovation Fund. Both will hunt for startups developing so-called dual use technologies those that may have applications in both business and the world of government and military entities.
The DIANA accelerator posts challenges to attract startups with a specific focus; among the initial challenges was one focused on energy resilience, which includes ways to supply power that would not be disrupted by natural disasters or cyber attacks. (About 1,300 startups applied for the first round this year, Murray said.)
The startups chosen for the accelerator each receive a grant of 100,000 Euros about $108,000 access to testing centers located in NATO member countries, and six months of mentorship and training as they develop their products. Some of that activity will take place at five accelerator programs in NATO countries. One of those is MassChallenge.
MassChallenge CEO Cait Brumme said the NATO startup founders will be able to choose which of the five sites they feel will be most helpful. The program will run from January through June of next year, after which the startups will be eligible for a second round of grant funding. (Participating entrepreneurs dont have to give up any equity in their company in either of the first two rounds.)
MassChallenge worked with MIT and Starburst, an aerospace-focused accelerator program, to develop a curriculum for the startups that will be used at all five of the sites, Brumme said. The curriculum focuses on topics such as understanding what dual-use is, how you work within the NATO context, and how you navigate Department of Defense entities, she said.
Another Bostonian, Bernadette Johnson, spent 2023 in London helping DIANA sort through the 1,300 applications and choose the 44 winners. Johnson is a longtime executive at MITs Lincoln Laboratory in Lexington, which develops technology for national security.
The NATO Innovation Fund is set up separately from DIANA, although it may in the future invest in startups that participate in the accelerator program. Murray, a dual citizen of the US and United Kingdom, serves as vice chair of that fund.
Its first pool of capital, one billion Euros, came from 23 NATO member countries not including the US. The three biggest contributors were the UK, Germany, and Italy.
While any startup based in a NATO country is eligible for the Diana program, the NIF will only invest in startups located in the 23 countries that put money into the fund.
The US did not contribute to the first NIF fund fund, but may invest in subsequent funds, said Murray, the associate dean at MIT. The NIF will invest in the early years of a startups life what is called seed or Series A investing and will look for investment opportunities not just in well-established ecosystems like London and Amsterdam.
The NIF is an effort to take the traditional VC model and adapt it to this extremely important mission and purpose supporting defense, security, and the resilience agenda in todays very complex geopolitical world, Murray said.
Among the NIF investors is Patrick Schneider-Sikorsky, who is based in London. In terms of areas where NIF is hunting for potential investments, he said, one major trend that we see is the use of drones in recent conflicts, and more specifically, in Russias war against Ukraine. The fund is also interested in approaches to defend against biological threats and cryptography that will be able to keep data secure once powerful quantum computers are deployed to break codes.
The fund hasnt yet made its first investment, Schneider-Sikorsky said, but that should happen imminently.
NATO was created in 1949 to counter the threat to European democracies from the Soviet Union. As the organization approaches its 75th birthday next year, NIF and Diana are two experiments in sourcing technology and supporting startups that will be worth watching.
Scott Kirsner can be reached at kirsner@pobox.com. Follow him @ScottKirsner.
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