Monthly Archives: July 2023

Iowas move combined with Democrats efforts to remake their early-state order to begin with South Carolina means the New Hampshire primary will most likely be held on Tuesday, Jan. 23, eight days after the Iowa caucuses.

But for the race for the Republican presidential nomination, that could leave a long gap between Iowa and New Hampshire, at the beginning, and the rest of the contests. The state GOP in South Carolina another of the four traditional, early carve-out states that the Republican National Committee says can host the first nominating contests last month set its primary date for Feb. 24.

Nevada, the fourth state, is almost certain to hold its caucuses sometime in February, but its plans have not been finalized yet.

Following those four states, Michigan is a possibility to slide into the fifth spot with a Feb. 27 primary. Otherwise, more than a dozen states are expected to vote the following week, March 5, on Super Tuesday, including delegate-rich California and Texas.

While theres less attention this cycle on the Democratic nomination, Iowas state Democratic Party had said it intends to hold its caucuses on the same day as the Republicans. Rita Hart, the state Democratic chairwoman, said her party had no input on the Republicans date and would continue to pursue a caucus that allowed more Democrats to participate than the traditional, only-in-person meetings.

No matter what, Iowa Democrats are committed to moving forward with the most inclusive caucus process in Iowas history, Hart said in a statement.

The Democratic National Committee, in picking South Carolina to go first and both Nevada and New Hampshire to follow second, has said Iowa would not be in compliance with its delegate rules if it holds caucuses on Jan. 15, nor would New Hampshires state-run primary if it was held on Jan. 23.

But since the South Carolina state Democratic Party intends to hold its party-run primary on Saturday, Feb. 3, New Hampshires state law says its primary must be held at least seven days prior to any other primary. That is what is likely to trigger the move up to Jan. 23. (Because Iowa holds caucuses and not a primary, New Hampshire can hold its primary after.)

In a statement, Iowa state GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann said the date honors our half-century-old promises to the other carveout states.

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Iowa Republican caucus date set for Jan. 15, 2024 - POLITICO - POLITICO

Questions surrounding Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) presidential campaign strategy are multiplying as he continues to trail former President Trump in the polls nearly a month after his highly anticipated campaign launch.

In a sign of just how concerned some of the governor’s allies are, the spokesperson for the pro-DeSantis PAC Never Back Down recently referred to Trump as the “runaway front-runner” in the primary and said that DeSantis faced an “uphill battle.” 

Meanwhile, DeSantis’s campaign faced backlash this week after sharing a video attacking Trump over his past comments in support of the LGBTQ+ community, leading some Republicans to raise concerns. 

One Republican strategist described the DeSantis PAC spokesperson’s comments as “a very clear-eyed moment.” 

“They realize they’re in a hole,” the strategist told The Hill. “They realize they can potentially win this and they are the only other game in town, but again, they are in a big hole.” 

The spokesperson, Steve Cortes, made his headline-grabbing comments Sunday during a Twitter Spaces conversation.

“Right now, in national polling, we are way behind. I’ll be the first to admit that,” said Cortes, who previously worked as an adviser to Trump. “I believe in being really blunt and really honest. It’s an uphill battle.”

Cortes emphasized that he still believed DeSantis could win, while also pointing out how Trump’s prior experience could be aiding him.

“The former president has debated through two successive presidential cycles, so of course he possesses a lot of experience in that arena,” he said. “But I am convinced that Governor DeSantis will outperform expectations and inform large audiences about his amazing life, political record, and winning agenda for the presidency.”

“Taking on an incumbent or former president in the primary always represents a significant challenge,” Cortes continued. “I gladly embraced that reality in joining the team. All of us on Team DeSantis remain convinced that the governor has a strong path to the nomination, and the best chance of any Republican to defeat Biden in the general election.”

Still, there are reasons for allies of the governor to be worried. Around the same time Cortes’s comments surfaced, the DeSantis campaign’s “war room” sparked outrage and confusion with a video attacking Trump over LGBTQ+ rights, including for comments the former president made in support of the community after the deadly Pulse nightclub shooting in Florida in 2016.

Among those who criticized DeSantis were LGBTQ+ Republicans including Rep. George Santos (N.Y.) and 2024 rivals including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

“They are looking for anything to garner attention so that they can use that to piggyback so they can spread their message,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based GOP strategist, in response to the video. “If Trump isn’t taking up the news oxygen, Hunter and Joe Biden are taking up the news oxygen.” 

Polling shows that after his launch in late May, DeSantis has struggled to gain traction in national and early state-level polling. 

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Trump with 52.4 percent support, while DeSantis trails at 21.5 percent support. And an Echelon Insights poll released Wednesday showed fellow Republican contender Vivek Ramaswamy gaining traction on DeSantis. The poll shows Trump leading the pack at 66 percent, DeSantis at 52 percent and Ramaswamy at 40 percent. In May, Echelon showed Ramaswamy in fourth place behind former Vice President Mike Pence.

“Everyone goes, my God, this Vivek guy is not going to win, but he’s the only guy actually pushing the ideas envelope, and the ideas that he’s pushing is actually reinforcing a lot of what Trump is saying,” O’Connell said. 

But Trump is still DeSantis’s biggest obstacle. 

“I will tell you that Trump is in a much stronger position now than he was in 2016,” O’Connell said. “They recognize that lightning in a bottle is their best chance to win this, so what they need to do is they need to get out there and make sure that everyone knows who Ron is, his biography and what he stands for.” 

And DeSantis and his campaign have been focused on getting boots on the ground in the early caucus and primary states, most recently hitting up New Hampshire for the Fourth of July holiday. 

“The rain may have been heavy, but the enthusiasm was high,” DeSantis spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in an email to reporters summing up the campaign stops. “Hundreds of Granite Staters turned out to show their support for the governor and his forward-looking vision for a better America.”

In a statement to The Hill on Wednesday, DeSantis’s campaign press secretary Bryan Griffin described the primary as “a marathon, not a sprint.” 

“Ron DeSantis has been underestimated in every race he has won, and this time will be no different,” Griffin said. “Donald Trump has to explain to Republican voters why he didn’t do the things he is now promising in his first term as president. Governor Ron DeSantis over-delivered on his promises as governor and has the national vision we need to restore our country, clean out DC, and lead our Great American Comeback.” 

So far, it appears that DeSantis’s bumpy start hasn’t dissuaded donors from lining up behind him. On Thursday, the campaign announced it had raised $20 million in its first six weeks, though that trailed the more than $35 million Trump’s campaign raised for the second quarter.

Of course, there’s also the possibility of further shakeups to the race between now and the Iowa caucuses, including the first Republican presidential primary debate, which is set to take place in August. 

“I kind of view the first debate as the beginning of the campaign, quite honestly,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida-based Republican strategist. “That’s when voters will get to start to view the candidates side by side.” 

But it’s unclear whether Trump will even attend the debate, and whether some of the lower-polling candidates will make the stage. 

“The dynamic changes if Trump’s on stage versus not on stage,” Sayfie said. “It changes if Chris Christie is on stage versus not on stage. We don’t even know those things yet.” 

And if the news cycle — including Trump’s recent indictments — is indicative of what’s to come, there could be more twists and turns going into next year. 

“The important thing, and I think people recognize this in a primary, is to not peak too soon, and there’s historical references,” Sayfie said. “I remember when John McCain had an event in Miami in 2007, and people were begging me to show up at his fundraiser and not even bring a check.” 

“His campaign was literally on life support, and he ended up becoming the Republican nominee,” he added. 

But others have suggested that DeSantis peaked following the midterm elections, when Florida Republicans saw sweeping victories there while Trump-endorsed candidates largely performed poorly in other parts of the country. 

“The mistake they made — and again, it’s a mistake most people running for a new office make — they assume people know more about Ron than they actually do,” O’Connell said. 

Originally posted here:

Republicans sound alarm over DeSantiss sagging campaign - The Hill

William Barr, probably the most notable defector, went from leading an egregiously politicized Justice Department acting essentially as Mr. Trumps personal attorney to denouncing his former bosss criminal and unethical behavior in a string of interviews. Chris Christie, now in a quest for the White House himself, is reprimanding as unfit for office the man he once obsequiously praised as he sought a cabinet appointment.

Clearly, more Republicans who, reluctantly or not, embraced or tolerated Mr. Trumps misdeeds need to finally break their silence with the same fervor they exhibited to support him.

Any effort by members of his own party, however belated, that discredits the former president and short-circuits his hopes of re-election would be an indispensable contribution to the best interests of the majority of Americans.

Roger Hirschberg South Burlington, Vt.

To the Editor:

Finally, someone with stature addresses the elephant in the room. Liz Cheney sacrificed her congressional seat for principle. Why dont the seasoned Republicans who likely will never seek office or an appointed political post again, and have nothing to lose, show some courage?

I think of: Olympia Snowe, Dan Quayle, George W. Bush, George Pataki, John Danforth, Pete Wilson, Elizabeth Dole, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Phil Scott, Christine Todd Whitman, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Chuck Hagel, Nancy Kassebaum, John Ashcroft, Dan Coats, William Cohen, Alfonse DAmato, Jeff Flake, Bill Frist, Alan Simpson, Ted Olson, William Weld and a host of others.

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Opinion | Can the Republican Party Reverse Course? - The New York Times

Photo Illustration by Luis G. Rendon/The Daily Beast/Getty/Reuters

Republicans continue to be divided over whether to support Ukraine, and that, in and of itself, is a problem. According to a survey last month by the Pew Research Center, 44 percent of Republicans now say we are giving too much aid to Ukraine.

The good news is that, as is the case with most issue polling, the numbers seem contingent on 1) how the questions are asked and 2) whether respondents are prompted with information before they are queried.

For example, another survey (conducted around the same time on behalf of the Ronald Reagan Institute) found that the numbers moved significantly when respondents were informed that our spending in Ukraine constitutes just 3 percent of the U.S. militarys budget, that Ukraine remains in control of roughly 83 percent of its territory, and that the war has severely degraded Russias military power and its ability to threaten NATO allies.

Americans Cant Even Agree on What Our Country Is

These conflicting results are partially explained by a Republican Party in the midst of an identity crisis.

As conservative columnist Matthew Continetti concluded, in the absence of energetic and effective leadership, negative partisanship determines voter attitudes. Republicans soured on aid to Ukraine not because they side with Russia, but because they consider the war to be another wasteful Biden project. When Republicans learn the facts behind U.S. involvement, however, their instinctual hawkishness kicks in. What they have lacked is a prominent GOP spokesman for freedom.

All this is to say: Words matter. And leaders matter. As John F. Kennedy said of Winston Churchill, He mobilized the English language and sent it into battle. In a different way, Ronald Reagan marshaled his moral clarity and rhetoric to inspire Americans and dissidents in the Soviet Union to win the Cold War.

Today, however, traditional conservatives like Mike Pence, who try to carry the Reagan banner, are increasingly outgunned by a small but loud minority of Republican politicians who oppose sending aid.

Story continues

Meanwhile, Republican politicians like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis cant make up their minds about where they stand on the issue.

Fortunately, there are emerging efforts to fill this leadership void, including a new group called Ukraine Strong that is headed by former senior GOP campaign officials, spokesmen, and operatives. As their website warns, ...Republican sentiment inertia is being pulled towards retreat and isolationism, making future conflict more likely.

Voices like these are necessary because rank-and-file Republicans are clearly torn over this issue. While Republicans may be somewhat predisposed to support U.S. aid to Ukraine out of sheer muscle memory, the zeitgeistfor now, at leastclearly favors the opposite camp.

Im concerned that the anti-Ukraine trend on the right will enforce Russias belief that if they bide their time, America will eventually cut and run. This commentary is both depressing and surprising.

If you were to transport a Republican from the year 2000 to present day, he or she would be stunned by todays dovish GOP. Ive been paying close attention to politics for decades, and Im still surprised by the state of the GOP.

Russias Mutiny Shows Ukraine Can Win the War

I shouldnt be. While Republicans may vacillate on issues ranging from character to free trade, its not surprising that opposition to Russias invasion is likewise controversial within the GOP. As a Reagan fan in the 1980s, raised on a steady diet of peace through strength conservatism and fueled by Red Dawn-esque pop culture flicks, I am saddened by this drastic turn of events.

The Republican brand was once contingent on being perceived as the party that was willing to stand up to the bad guys. The idea that accomplishing this vital goal might cost too much would have seemed like lefty talk.

After liberals decided that stopping the spread of communism was no longer worth paying any price or bearing any burden, they said things like, We have homeless in America, why are we fighting in X?

Putin Killed Trumps America First Movement

Today, an increasing number of Republicans are making a similar argument, except their implicit message is, We have poor white people in Appalachia. Why are we wasting their resources on Ukraine?

Im old enough to remember when The Reagan Doctrine called for providing overt and covert aid to resistance movements fending off an Evil Empire. Granted, todays imperialistic Russia is not Marxist (although its leader is a former KGB officer), but this foreign policy philosophy was deeply rooted in experience.

We in America have learned bitter lessons from two World Wars: It is better to be here ready to protect the peace, than to take blind shelter across the sea, rushing to respond only after freedom is lost, Reagan said during his famous D-Day speech. Weve learned that isolationism never was and never will be an acceptable response to tyrannical governments with an expansionist intent.

How Did We Get Putin So Wrong?

Have we learned those lessons?

World War II occurred eight decades ago. Unfortunately, many Americans have forgotten the lessons we collectively learned as a country. Some Republicans seem more interested in repeating the mistakes of the 1930s than they are in learning the lessons from the 1940s.

And keep in mind, its not just Russia who is watching and testing our resolve. Other bad actors, like China, are surely paying attention to our every move.

No, we shouldnt go abroad looking for monsters to destroy. But we also shouldnt be naive enough to think that our non-involvement will deter bullies from picking on weaker countries. History suggests appeasement does the exact opposite.

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Reagans Republican Party Wouldnt Think Twice About Aid to Ukraine - Yahoo News

Its the final Fourth of July before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary still more than six months away, yes. But all the same, the Republicans vying for their partys presidential nomination were on the trail, waving to supporters from parades, shaking hands with voters and taking selfies.

But not the front-runner: Donald J. Trump was conspicuously absent on the 247th anniversary of the nations independence.

The former president has upended the traditional expectations of Iowa and New Hampshire voters. For decades they have prided themselves on their discernment of presidential candidates and have demanded to get to know them personally before casting the first ballots in the nation.

Steven Cheung, a spokesman for Mr. Trumps 2024 campaign, objected to the notion that the former president is avoiding retail politics over the Fourth of July holiday, pointing to Mr. Trumps rally in South Carolina on Saturday, which, he said, counted as Independence Day weekend. Mr. Trump also appeared at the Moms for Liberty conference in Philadelphia on Friday, and he even dropped by Pats King of Steaks, a cheese steak palace that has been a mainstay for politicians in Philly for decades.

And this Friday the former president will be in Council Bluffs, Iowa.

But on the actual anniversary of the nations birth?

His campaign will have an overwhelming presence in various parades and patriotic events in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, Mr. Cheung said.

Mr. Trump himself, though, planned to spend the day with his family, Mr. Cheung said.

Im sure people are thankful hes not out, former Representative Will Hurd of Texas, a recent entrant in the Republican primary race, quipped outside a pancake breakfast in Merrimack, N.H. He comes with a lot of baggage.

For early-state Republican voters who hoped for more personal attention on the Fourth, the pickings were plentiful with the exception of Mr. Trump. Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida and several other Republican presidential hopefuls spent Tuesday in New Hampshire, while Mike Pence, the former vice president, was in Iowa.

Mr. Trumps campaign evinces no concern that his absence from the stage will give his rivals any room to make up ground in the Republican primaries. After queries about his July 4 plans, his team released a memo Monday afternoon highlighting his campaigns plans to celebrate the holiday in Iowa and New Hampshire and calling out his dominant position in Republican primary polling.

Republican veterans dont see much of an opening for Mr. Trumps rivals either.

He definitely plays by a different set of rules, said David Kochel, a longtime Republican adviser and strategist in Iowa. Mr. Trump has made some recent adjustments with unscheduled stops at restaurants like Pats and, after his arraignment on the first federal felony charges ever levied on a former president, at Versailles, Miamis beloved Cuban restaurant. He will be appearing with virtually the entire G.O.P. field at the Republican Party of Iowas biggest fund-raiser, the Lincoln Dinner, on July 28.

But, Mr. Kochel said, his celebrity and the fact that he was president gives him more flexibility.

The retail politics tradition in Iowa and New Hampshire may well be overrated, an artifact of a time before super PACs saturated airwaves, social media reached voters phones and celebrity pervaded the zeitgeist, regardless of who was in the diners and pizza joints.

Retail has always been mostly theater, but now its all a performance for the cameras, not about meeting regular people and listening to their concerns, said Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the New Hampshire Republican State Committee.

For someone like Mr. DeSantis, who joined the primary campaign relatively late, appearances like his two July 4 parades do demonstrate that he is putting in the effort and taking New Hampshire seriously, said Mr. Cullen, who is now a Republican consultant in the state.

As for the former president, Can you imagine Trump walking in the Wolfeboro Fourth of July parade? he asked. I dont think so.

Limiting Mr. Trumps public appearances and emphasizing large rallies over glad-handing with a few dozen supporters may help to preserve the former presidents celebrity and mystique among his faithful while projecting confidence. And Republican primary voters already know how they feel about the former president. His fate in the primary contest may depend more on external factors like his indictments in two cases and the trials that may ensue, as well as other inquiries he is facing than on his power of persuasion at an Iowa Pizza Ranch.

Mr. Cheung insisted, even as he outlined a relatively sparse schedule for Mr. Trump,It would be incorrect to write that he will be sparing retail politics.

But the rest of the Republican field, with weaker field operations and later starts, do not have that luxury, said Dave Carney, another New Hampshire Republican consultant and veteran organizer.

For those laboring to break out of the pack, Mr. Trumps absence on July 4 presented a moment to introduce themselves to at least a few voters in person.

Today is about meeting people, right? Mr. Hurd said. Not everybody is doom scrolling on social media or consuming cable news.

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Trump Wont Campaign at a July 4 Parade, but Other Republican ... - The New York Times

More than 20 percent of Republicans surveyed said certain criminal charges against former President Trump have made them more likely to support him in the 2024 election, according to a new Ipsos poll released Thursday.

About 24 percent of polled Republicans say the charges in the classified documents investigation make them more likely to support Trump, while 21 percent said the same with regard to the 34-count indictment related to falsified business records in a Manhattan court case.

Trump was charged with 37 felonies related to alleged mishandling of classified documents at his Florida home. He also faces 34 criminal counts related to falsifying business records in a case in which he allegedly made hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.

The largest proportion of Americans identifying with any party said the cases hurt their opinion of Trump or don’t change their likelihood of supporting him, 41 and 37 percent respectively.

If Trump is found guilty on the charges, about 10 percent of Republicans said they would be more likely to support him.

The findings support polling from last month that found that a majority of Americans, and approximately 80 percent of Republicans, believe that the criminal charges are politically motivated.

The survey also found that most Democrats believe Trump is guilty, while Republicans are split. Most Americans also want Trump’s trial to take place before the 2024 election.

The Ipsos poll has a margin of error of 3.8 points. It was conducted in late June after Trump had been indicted in both cases. Some 1,005 American adults were surveyed, including 374 Republicans, 441 Democrats and 122 independents. 

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Nearly a quarter of Republicans say classified docs charges make them more likely to support Trump: poll - The Hill