Daily Archives: July 17, 2023

This photo released by Ostorozhno Novosti on Monday, July 17, 2023, reportedly shows damaged parts of an automobile link of the Crimean Bridge connecting Russian mainland and Crimean peninsula over the Kerch Strait not far from Kerch, Crimea. AP hide caption

This photo released by Ostorozhno Novosti on Monday, July 17, 2023, reportedly shows damaged parts of an automobile link of the Crimean Bridge connecting Russian mainland and Crimean peninsula over the Kerch Strait not far from Kerch, Crimea.

MOSCOW At least two people reportedly died and another was injured early on Monday after what Russian authorities said was a Ukrainian attack on a key bridge linking the Russian mainland to the annexed peninsula of Crimea.

Russian media reported two explosions hit what is called the Kerch Bridge that connects southern Russia to annexed Crimea. Russian officials called the incident a "terrorist attack" that was staged by Ukrainian special forces involving two sea drones. There was no claim of responsibility from the Ukrainian side, but a spokesperson for the Ukrainian military's Southern Command said the explosions could be a staged provocation by Russia to undermine a grain export deal that expires Monday.

Witness video online did appear to show a section of road partially collapsed, although a parallel railway track appears undamaged. Local authorities have also identified the victims; they say a teenage girl was left orphaned after her parents' car was apparently hit from the impact of whatever caused the damage.

Russia has made it clear where they think the responsibility lies: Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused Ukraine of carrying out a terrorist attack with help, she said, from U.S. and British intelligence.

It was the second significant strike on the bridge since last October, when a truck bomb damaged two sections of the bridge. The bridge is a key supply line for Russian forces operating in southern Ukraine. It's also an important symbol of Moscow's control of Crimea, the territory Russia illegally annexed from Ukraine in 2014. Russian President Vladimir Putin personally drove the first vehicle over the bridge when it opened in 2018 to much fanfare.

For all those reasons Ukraine has said the bridge is a legitimate military target.

Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's security services, has repeatedly called the bridge redundant. Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar recently listed a previous attack on the bridge last fall on Ukraine's list of military successes.

NPR's Joanna Kakissis contributed reporting from Kyiv, Ukraine.

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Explosions disrupt traffic on a key bridge from Crimea to Russia's mainland - NPR

A Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopter flies during military drills in Dnipropetrovsk region, on June 7, 2023.Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters

A Ukrainian air force crew told The Sunday Times that women flash them when they fly overhead.

One woman even proposed marriage by holding up a sign as they flew over a town, a pilot said.

The Ukrainian air force is trying to keep morale high as it faces a strong Russian counterpart.

A Ukrainian helicopter crew told The Sunday Times that women in the country flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale in fighting Russia.

In a recent feature, the show of support was described by a Ukrainian pilot, identified only by his rank of major and his first name Maksym.

He said his crew saves the GPS locations of places where it happens, lighthearted moment in their dangerous and often demoralizing missions against a far superior Russian air force.

One woman even proposed marriage to them by holding up a sign, he said.

Maksym and his fellow airmen have been flying a Soviet-designed Mil Mi-8 helicopter on daily missions to Bakhmut, an eastern city in Ukraine, which has become a flashpoint in the war.

On their way to their missions they try to keep conversation light and positive, Maksym said, and like to interact with civilians on the ground. They recently threw a bottle of cognac wrapped in a towel to an elderly man they spotted in the war-torn landscape, he said.

These kind of interactions as more viable because the helicopters fly very low to avoid Russian air-defense, often just 15 feet above ground, the Times report said.

The Ukrainian air force is struggling against a far better-armed Russia, Maksym said. The disparity is especially strong between the air forces, which Maksym characterized by saying: "The Russians understand we can do nothing to them in the air."

Ukraine has limited ammunition and no aircraft that counters Russia's newest models in the sky, he said. Half of his unit has already been killed, he added.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told The Wall Street Journal last month that Russian air superiority would exact a heavy toll on Ukrainian soldiers if Western powers did not provide them with reinforcements.

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Ukrainian helicopter crew say women flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale fighting Russia - Yahoo News

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Russia halts traffic over Crimea bridge after Ukrainian attack - Financial Times

An attack before dawn Monday damaged a bridge linking Russia to Moscow-annexed Crimea that is a key supply route for Kremlin forces in the war with Ukraine, forcing the spans temporary closure for a second time in less than a year. Two people were killed and their daughter was injured.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered increased security at the 19-kilometer (12-mile) Kerch Bridge, repeating a call he made in October 2022 when the span was severely damaged by an explosion that Moscow also blamed on Kyiv.

He also promised there will be a response from Russia, of course.

What happened is another terrorist act of the Kyiv regime, Putin said at a televised meeting with officials. It is a crime that is pointless from the military point of view, it bears no significance because the Crimean bridge hasnt been used for military means in a long time, and it is brutal, because blameless civilians were injured and killed."

Vehicle traffic on the bridge came to a standstill on Monday, while rail traffic also was halted for about six hours.

Satellite images taken Monday morning by Maxar Technologies showed serious damage to both eastbound and westbound lanes of the bridge across the Kerch Strait on the part nearest to the Russian mainland, with at least one section collapsed. The railroad bridge that runs parallel to the highway appeared undamaged.

The strike was carried out by two Ukrainian maritime drones, Russias National Anti-Terrorist Committee said.

Ukrainian officials were coy about taking responsibility, as they have been in past strikes. But in what appeared to be a tacit acknowledgment, Ukrainian Security Service spokesman Artem Degtyarenko said in a statement that his agency would reveal details of how the bang was organized after Kyiv has won the war.

The October attack on the bridge came when a truck bomb blew up two of its sections and required months of repair. Moscow decried that assault as an act of terrorism and retaliated by bombarding Ukraines civilian infrastructure, targeting the countrys power grid over the winter.

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In Monday's blast, the Ukrainian news portal RBK-Ukraina cited a security services source as saying it was carried out by what it called floating drones. A deputy prime minister, Mykhailo Fedorov, later said on the Telegram messaging service that today, the Crimea bridge was torn apart by sea drones, but it was not clear if he was making an official confirmation or referring to earlier reports.

Hours after the attack, video from Russian authorities showed crews picking up debris from the deck of the bridge, a section of which appeared to be sloping to one side, and a damaged black sedan with its passenger door open.

Putin ordered authorities to thoroughly investigate what happened, to come up with concrete proposals to enhance security of this strategically important transport object, and to provide all possible support to people who ended up in a difficult position due to the halted traffic on the bridge.

The Kerch Bridge is a conspicuous symbol of Moscows claims on Crimea and an essential land link to the peninsula, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014. The $3.6 billion bridge is the longest in Europe and is crucial for Russias military operations in southern Ukraine in the nearly 17-month-old war.

Russia has expanded its military forces in Crimea since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Occasional sabotage and other attacks against the Russian military and other facilities on the peninsula have occurred since, with the Kremlin blaming Ukraine.

Those attacks and acts of sabotage haven't discouraged Russians from spending their holidays in Crimea, and as car traffic on the bridge came to a halt, long lines formed at a ferry crossing the Kerch Strait, Russian media reported.

Traffic jams also clogged a highway in the Russian-held part of the Kherson region after Moscow-appointed authorities in Crimea redirected motorists to take the land route to Russia, through the partially occupied regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, according to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. Drivers heading to Crimea were also stuck in a three-kilometer jam between Russian cities of Rostov-on-Don and Taganrog, RIA Novosti reported.

The bridge attack comes as Ukrainian forces are pressing a counteroffensive in several sections of the front line. It also happened hours before Russia announced, as expected, that it is halting a deal brokered by the United Nations and Turkey that allows the export of Ukrainian grain during the war.

Russian media identified the dead as Alexei and Natalia Kulik, who were traveling to Crimea for a summer vacation. The 40-year-old Kulik was a truck driver and his 36-year-old wife was a municipal education worker. Their 14-year-old daughter suffered chest and brain injuries.

Kyiv didnt initially acknowledge responsibility for Octobers bridge attack either, but Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar acknowledged earlier this month that Ukraine struck it to derail Russian logistics.

Russian authorities said the attack didn't affect the bridge's piers but damaged two road links, one beyond repair. The damage still appeared less serious than in October's attack; Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said authorities would gradually resume traffic on one side of the bridge after midnight Monday (2100 GMT Monday).

Andriy Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraines military intelligence department, declined to comment but said: The peninsula is used by the Russians as a large logistical hub for moving forces and assets deep into the territory of Ukraine. Of course, any logistical problems are additional complications for the occupiers.

The Security Service of Ukraine posted a redacted version of a popular lullaby, tweaked to say that the bridge went to sleep again.

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Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

Associated Press writer Michael Biesecker contributed from Washington.

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Key Russian bridge to Crimea is struck again, with Moscow blaming Kyiv for attack that killed 2 - Yahoo News

The bridge connecting Crimea and Russia carries heavy significance for Moscow, both logistically and psychologically, as a key artery for military and civilian supplies and as an assertion of Kremlin control of the peninsula it illegally annexed in 2014.

An attack on the bridge before dawn Monday, killing a couple and seriously injuring their daughter, left a span of the roadway hanging perilously. The damage initially appeared to be less severe than what was caused by an assault in October, but it highlighted the bridges vulnerability.

Russia blamed Ukraine for both attacks. A spokesman for the Ukrainian Security Service on Monday did not directly acknowledge responsibility but said the service would reveal details about organizing the blast once Ukraine achieves victory in the war.

A CRITICAL CONNECTION

The Crimean Peninsula extends south from Ukraines mainland, with road connections on two isthmuses, one of which is less than 2 kilometers (1 mile) wide, and by a bridge from a narrow spit. Those links to Ukraine go into territory occupied by Russian forces that come under attack from the Ukrainian military.

The bridge, which connects Crimeas eastern extremity with Russias Krasnodar region, provides the only fixed link that steers clear of the disputed territory.

The 19-kilometer (12-mile) bridge over the Kerch Strait that links the Black and Azov seas carries road and rail traffic on separate sections and is vital to sustaining Russias military operations in southern Ukraine.

A SYMBOLIC STRUCTURE

The bridge is the longest in Europe and a subject of considerable pride in Russia. Construction began in 2016, about two years after Russia's annexation, and was completed in little more than two years. The pace of construction was impressive but led some critics to question whether it was hastily designed and built.

The bridge was constructed despite strong objections from Ukraine and is the most visible and constant reminder of Russias claim over Crimea.

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President Vladimir Putin drove across the bridge at its formal opening. Putin is also closely connected to construction tycoon Arkady Rotenberg, whose company got the $3.5 billion contract for the bridge.

CONSEQUENCES OF THE ATTACK

Rail traffic on the bridge reportedly was restored within a few hours Monday but it was unclear when full road service could be restored. Ferries were being organized to try to ease the burden, but it was not immediately clear whether the vessels could accommodate demand. Crimeas beaches and mountains are popular with summer tourists.

Russian authorities advised people who wanted to leave Crimea quickly to go via Russian-controlled territory in Ukraine. That would add up to 600 kilometers (350 miles) to their journey and likely raise their anxiety about going through insecure areas.

Russian officials denounced Mondays attack but did not immediately specify retaliatory measures, although Russia has responded with cruise missiles and drone barrages to other Ukrainian attacks.

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Follow APs coverage of the war in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/hub/russia-ukraine

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The bridge to Crimea is crucial to Russia's war effort in Ukraine and to asserting Moscow's control - Yahoo News

WASHINGTON On a warm June night, Benjamin Wittes was seated at a card table across the street from the Russian Embassy in Washington, kicking off his light show.

Assembled around him was a sprawl of wires and equipment, including a laptop and two powerful light projectors. One of them was beaming a giant blue and yellow Ukrainian flag onto the embassys white facade.

That was just the beginning. Weve got a little essay were going to project, line by line, in three languages, said Mr. Wittes, a prominent national security law expert. Its about stolen children. By the end of the night, he was beaming a Ukrainian-language profanity about President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia onto the towering embassy structure.

Mr. Wittes and his friends have been lighting up the embassy once every few weeks since the war in Ukraine began last year. It is clearly getting under the Russians skin. On this night, the Russians were trying to blot out his projections with ones of their own, including two giant white Zs a nationalist Russian symbol of the war effort.

Once, last spring, a Russian spotlight chased a Ukrainian flag across the embassy facade in a slapstick cat-and-mouse game that has since been watched millions of times online. In April, a burly man in jeans and a Baltimore Orioles T-shirt emerged from the embassy and silently obstructed Mr. Wittess projectors with an open umbrella in each hand.

They get into spotlight wars with us, Mr. Wittes said. Its really quite juvenile.

It is also the strange new normal around Russias main diplomatic outpost in the United States, a scene of near-constant protests, spy games and general weirdness as the most hostile relations in decades between the United States and Russia play out in the heart of Washington. Thousands of miles from the front in Ukraine, the embassy compound has become a battle zone of its own.

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Russia's Embassy in Washington is enmeshed in a different kind of war. - The New York Times

Bulk carrier ARGO I is docked at the grain terminal of the port of Odesa on April 10. Bo Amstrup/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Ima hide caption

Bulk carrier ARGO I is docked at the grain terminal of the port of Odesa on April 10.

The U.N.-backed deal that has allowed Ukraine to export grain and other food items during the ongoing invasion by Russia is set to expire Monday with no announced plans for renewal.

Known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, the agreement reached last July allowed for international shipments of corn, wheat, barley and other food products from three designated ports in Ukraine, which has been nicknamed the "breadbasket of Europe."

Experts say the deal while imperfect has helped stave off a worsening of global hunger and prevented a surge in food prices worldwide. U.N. Secretary-General Antnio Guterres called the deal "a beacon of hope" when it was signed last summer.

Now its future is unclear. Russian President Vladimir Putin says a part of the agreement that would have eased similar exports from his country has not been satisfied.

According to the Kremlin, Putin said in a call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Saturday that Russia still faced obstacles exporting food and fertilizer, contrary to obligations in the deal that were supposed to lift such barriers.

But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the deal, said Friday that he believes Putin will renew the agreement.

Erdogan told reporters that he had spoken to the Russian president by phone and that he and Putin were "on the same page" when it came to extending the deal, Deutsche Welle reported.

In the nearly one year since the deal has been in place, ships have made 1,003 voyages from the three Ukrainian ports carrying a total of 32.8 million tons of grain and other food products, the United Nations announced on Saturday.

Forty-five countries received grain shipments from Ukraine under the initiative. Asia saw 46% of the imports, while 40% went to Western Europe, 12% went to Africa and 1% went to Eastern Europe.

A ship that left the port of Odesa early Sunday morning was the last one to depart Ukraine in the waning hours of the current agreement, Reuters reported.

The deal also allowed for the export of fertilizer from Ukraine, though none had been shipped, the U.N. said.

In May, the parties agreed to extend the deal for another two months, though Russia also complained at the time that sanctions and other restrictions hampered the country's trade abilities.

NPR's Peter Kenyon contributed reporting.

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A deal that lets Ukraine export grain during its war with Russia is about to expire - NPR

Chinese naval vessels set sail this weekend to participate in joint maneuvers with the Russian military, Chinese defense authorities said Sunday.

Ties between Moscow and Beijing have grown closer since Russia invaded Ukraine last year, a move China has not condemned.

The two have ramped up defense contacts, including joint military drills in recent months.

The latest air-and-sea exercises will take place in the Sea of Japan and are aimed at "safeguarding strategic maritime routes," the Chinese defense ministry had said Saturday.

The Chinese military has sent five warships, including a guided-missile destroyer, it added in the statement published Sunday, without specifying when the drills will take place.

China and Russia carried out a joint air patrol over the Seas of Japan and East China last month, and the flights prompted South Korea to deploy fighter jets as a precaution.

It was the sixth such China-Russia patrol in the area since 2019.

China's Defense Minister Li Shangfu this month advocated boosting naval cooperation with Russia.

Beijing has emerged as Moscow's most important ally since the Ukraine war began.

China says it is a neutral party in the conflict but its refusal to condemn the invasion has led to accusations from Ukraine's allies that it is favoring Russia.

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China and Russia to Hold Joint Naval Drills - The Moscow Times

The Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly has today (17 July) announced 14 new sanctions in response to Russias attempts to destroy Ukrainian national identity, including 11 against those involved in the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

Todays announcement comes ahead of the Foreign Secretarys speech at the UN Security Council (UNSC), where he will highlight the far-reaching implications of Russias war, call on Russia to renew the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and outline the need for a just, lasting peace in Ukraine.

Among the designations announced today are Russian officials Ksenia Mishonova, Commissioner for Childrens Rights in the Moscow Region, and Sergey Kravtsov, Minister of Education of Russia.

These individuals have played an insidious role in Russias calculated programme of deportation, designed to erase Ukrainian cultural and national identity. Over 19,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Russia or temporarily Russian controlled territory by Russian authorities.

Many deported children are relocated to a network of re-education camps in illegally annexed Crimea and mainland Russia, where they are exposed to Russia-centric academic, cultural, patriotic, and military education.

This latest package of designations follows the UKs sanctioning of Russian Childrens Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova in June 2022 for her alleged involvement in the forced transfer and adoption of Ukrainian children.

Also sanctioned today are 2 Russian propagandists responsible for spreading abhorrent propaganda designed to incite violence and hatred towards Ukraine and its people, including Anton Krasovsky, a former Russia Today presenter, who claimed live on air that Ukrainian children should be drowned and burned.

Olga Lyubimova, the Russian Culture Minister, is additionally targeted for using her position to support the Russian states damaging anti-Ukrainian policies.

Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly, said:

In his chilling programme of forced child deportation, and the hate-filled propaganda spewed by his lackeys, we see Putins true intention to wipe Ukraine from the map.

Todays sanctions hold those who prop up Putins regime to account, including those who would see Ukraine destroyed, its national identity dissolved, and its future erased.

The UK and international partners have implemented the most severe package of sanctions ever imposed on a major economy.

Over 1,600 individuals and entities have been sanctioned since the start of the invasion, including 29 banks with global assets worth 1 trillion, over 130 oligarchs with a combined net worth of over 145 billion, and over 20 billion worth of UK-Russia trade.

Later today, in New York, the Foreign Secretary will use his speech during a UK-chaired session of the UNSC to call for a just, lasting peace in Ukraine and highlight Russias barbaricforced deportation of Ukrainian children.

He is expected to say:

Ukraine wants peace. We want peace. The whole world wants peace.

Peace will bring home Ukraines lost children and feed the hungry of the world.

The devastating effects of Putins aggression can be felt in every corner of the globe. Vital grain supplies from Ukraine will be cut off and millions will face exacerbated food insecurity if Russia does not agree to a renewal of the Black Sea Grain Initiative today.

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UK announces new sanctions in response to Russia's forced ... - GOV.UK

In Russia, last years exodus of Western companies and Russian entrepreneurs is creating opportunities to entrench the regime, as a wartime redistribution of assets belonging to those who left the country promises to enrich what remains of the middle class and bind it to the state.

In any discussion over the future of Russias economy, the issues raised are always the same: Western sanctions, growing war spending, and the redirection of trade flows to Asia. Left unaddressed, however, are two additional trends: increasing nationalization and a new wave of privatization. Seemingly mutually exclusive, these developments could prove entirely compatibleand may well transform Russias social structure and further entrench the countrys political system.

A great many assets have changed hands since Russias invasion of Ukraine. Many were left behind by Western companies that pulled out of the country, chief among them retailers and food and drink chains (like McDonalds, IKEA, and Starbucks), automakers (such as Ford and Mercedes), and retail banks (including Home Credit and Socit Gnrale).

Exiting Russia has become more difficult with time. In August 2022, President Vladimir Putin issued a decree banning foreign investors from unfriendly countries (as determined by the Russian government) from selling or transferring their stakes in strategic companies operating in Russias financial and energy sectors, from which only he may grant exemptions. Later, in December, the government introduced a rule forcing foreign companies leaving Russia to dispose of their assets at a discount of no less than 50 percent of market value.

In March 2023, those requirements were expanded to include a compensation payment to the state, while in April, Putin authorized the expropriation of foreign-owned assets in response to the seizure and freezing of Russian assets abroad. The first firms to fall victim to the latter measure were the local subsidiaries of Finlands Fortum and Germanys Uniper, both energy companies, which may not have been formally nationalized but are unlikely to ever be reclaimed by their former parents.

The holdings of foreign companies aside, state assets have remained attractive. The former Accounts Chamber head Alexei Kudrin, when making the case for large-scale privatization, pointed out that the state sector generated more than half of Russias GDP in 2019. In the oil and gas sector, nearly 75 percent of revenues came from state companies.

Still another source of assets for redistribution have been those Russian entrepreneurs who liquidated their assetsincluding parts of the internet services giant Yandex, the telecom company Vimpelcom, and online bank Tinkoffand moved abroad, voluntarily or not.

As a result, there is an unprecedented turnover of heavily discounted assets in Russia today, from those belonging to the state to those relinquished or otherwise lost by foreign companies and Russian businesspeople. Now the authorities must decide what to do with them all.

One of the options is privatization, a strategy close to the heart of state bank VTB CEO Andrei Kostin, whose bank acquired the rival Otkritie group last December in one of the largest deals in Russian banking historywithout an auction or much concern for antitrust restrictions.

Kostins privatization drive is wide-ranging, targeting everything from Russian Railways to the Transneft oil pipeline company to the Rostec defense conglomerate and even cognac makers. Thanks to its status as Russias second biggest bank, not even record losses in 2022 will prevent VTB from taking part in the carving up of assets at bargain prices.

Kostin is joined in backing privatization by the governments financial and economic bloc, led by central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, and Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov. Their preference, however, is for limited rather than mass privatization.

Kostins argument in favor of privatizationthat it must be introduced to generate interest among investors and stem the outflow of capitalis telling. According to the central bank, the volume of transfers to foreign banks tripled in 2022, suggesting that most people who wished to get their money out of Russia did so then.

At the same time, nearly 30 percent of the total amount deposited in Russian banks came from those with more than 10 million rubles in savings. This group of people, representing just 0.1 percent of depositors (probably about 20,000 people), evidently cannot or do not wish to move their money abroad.

The same can be said of several other tens of thousands of Russians working in government, particularly at security and supervisory agencies. Their wealth can no longer be transferred abroad, and they largely lack the knowledge and experience to invest in Asia, making their funds a dead weight gathering dust in anticipation of better times and a new round of redistribution.

What can the authorities do? The answer is clear: acquire the abandoned assets at the maximum discount, then redistribute them in such a way as befits their industry. Financial firms, natural resources, and other energy companies will be absorbed by state banks and companies in a kind of quasi-nationalization or pseudo-privatization that Russia has perfected over time.

Nonstrategic assets, such as in retail, will be redistributed among the nouveau riche and the upper middle class: generally, the generations aged 3555 and university-educated, whose wealth has come from either state-adjacent projects such as roadbuilding, or senior positions at state companies and private firms with Western investors. According to Forbes, a significant part of Western assets have already been awarded to the old oligarchs, the former CEOs of Western companies Russian subsidiaries, and entrepreneurs from the provinces. Also in the mix are Asianespecially Chinesecompanies, which can count on their governments support.

Public servants, including representatives of the security state, may also get in on the action, having enriched themselves through petty corruption, though they will be sure to involve themselves strictly through proxies.

All this may combine to shore up Putins regime. Russias social structure had started to resemble an hourglass as the middle class contracted and emigrated. Now that same middle class may also be able to benefit from the countrys current direction, turning a structure that looked like it might break in half at any minute into a far more stable trapezoid shape.

The regimes economic foundation will now consist of the states expanded asset base in natural resources, energy, and heavy industry. Meanwhile, at the top of the new social hierarchy will be the trusted lieutenants of the president and their heirs, along with select officials holding significant stakes in state-adjacent companies or directorships. The more the state brings under its control, the more such people there will be.

The middle layer of Russias social structure will be shaped by the redistribution of assets among those well-off Russians forced to focus on the domestic market by international sanctions. In return for their loyalty, they will receive high-quality assets at a significant discount, which may turn them into a pillar of the regime and a source of patriotic optimism and even radicalism. There could even be a peoples privatization, in which the wealthy are awarded minority stakes in state companies.

Much will depend on the avoidance of catastrophe on the Ukrainian front, the continued apathy of the public sector, and the success of Russias pivot to Asia. Yet the effect could be to extend the regimes lifespanand it may well even enable a transition of power down the road.

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Russia Looks to Economic Redistribution to Shore Up the Regime - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace