Daily Archives: July 6, 2023

Austrias Raiffeisen Bank is hoping the war in Ukraine will end soon to avoid a costly exit from Russia, Reuters reported Thursday, citing multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The news outlet said Austrian officials are resisting pressure from the European Central Bank (ECB) for Raiffeisen to spin off its Russian subsidiary by September.

Vienna privately thinks restoring long-standing relations with Russia while publicly supporting Kyiv during Moscows 16-month invasion will still be possible.

According to Reuters, Raiffeisen is delaying the spinoff by waiting for the ECB, its shareholders, and the Russian government to approve the move.

Austrian officials have also complained that Raiffeisen is being unfairly singled out, Reuters reported, citing a finance ministry spokesperson who said other European banks remain active in Russia.

A bank cannot leave a country like that overnight, the spokesperson was quoted as saying.

Austrian officials have recently urged the ECBs president and a top U.S. Treasury sanctions official not to pressure Raiffeisen, Reuters said.

Raiffeisen has submitted data on Russian transactions to the U.S. Treasury Departments Office of Foreign Assets Control for a review of any sanctions breaches, three sources were cited as saying.

Moscow has reportedly signaled it wants Raiffeisen to stay because it is among the few remaining Western lenders that enable international payments.

Raiffeisen, with up to 4 billion euros ($4.5 billion) of capital in Russia, has around 4 million Russian account holders, 2,600 corporate customers and 10,000 employees.

In June, Raiffeisens Russian subsidiary imposed a 50% commission fee on incoming U.S. dollar transfers and suspended euro transfers to non-Raiffeisen banks in Russia and several other countries.

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Raiffeisen Bank Hopes War Ends 'Soon' to Avoid Costly Russia Exit Reuters - The Moscow Times

Marat Gabidullin served as a mercenary in the Wagner Group for three years. (Courtesy of Marat Gabidullin)

In the weeks following a failed mutiny that saw mercenary soldiers marching toward Moscow in an armed rebellion, Wagner Group paramilitary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has been banished from the Kremlins inner circle.

Last month, Prigozhin led his soldiers toward the Russian capital on a so-called march for justice to remove what he called Russias incompetent and corrupt senior military leadership. Hours later, just 125 miles from Moscow, Prigozhin turned back, stating, Russian blood will be spilled on one side.

It is a mystery to some as to why Priogzhin described by his former assistant and ex-Wagner soldier Marat Gabidullin as brutal and creative went to such measures to denounce Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, as well as Gen. Valery Gerasimov and Gen. Sergei Surovikin.

Russian President Vladimir Putin called the insurrection a betrayal, and went so far as to accuse Prigozhin of treason. It was then reported that Prigozhin had been removed as Wagners leader and exiled to Belarus.

On Thursday, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko claimed Prigozhin was not, in fact, in Belarus, and was actually still in Russia. The Kremlin did not deny this, but rather said it was "not following" Prigozhin's movements.

Prigozhin resurfaced on Monday, defending his mutiny in a voice message on the Telegram messaging app: I want you to understand that our march for justice was aimed at fighting traitors and mobilizing our society.

While speculation continues to swirl in the aftermath of the insurrection, Yahoo News spoke to Gabidullin, who now lives in France, via a translator on life with the Wagner outfit. Answers have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

I believe Prigozhin decided for himself that it was a convenient moment to call on Putin to think more rationally and make a choice between Prigozhin and Shoigu. Shoigu is an incompetent minister of defense who constantly interferes in managing the armed forces despite his lack of competence in military matters. The whims of Shoigu also impeded the smooth collaboration between the Russian military and Wagner.

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Shoigu and Prigozhin are two antagonists, enemies who hate each other on a personal level. Prigozhin believed that he had enough achievements to make Putin listen to him, but he miscalculated. It happens to him sometimes. He is a very intelligent person, but sometimes his ego takes over. Putin doesnt need a good minister of defense; he needs someone who supports his power and firmly opposes Shoigu. By doing so, Prigozhin is aiming for power in general. When Prigozhin realized this, he ordered a return to the base camps. Various intermediaries and peacekeepers likeLukashenko are just distractions, justifications for not arresting Prigozhin. Prigozhin won't repeat such actions.

I left because I realized that the direction in which Wagner was going wasnt aligned with my own understanding of the purpose of such an organization. War for the sake of war is not my life philosophy. Wagner was deteriorating from a group of mercenaries into a group of combat slaves.

Wagner's fighters and commanders are only prepared for war. They do not participate in parades and ceremonial processions. The training system for Wagners fighters consists of constant practice of the skills in conditions as close to real war as possible. Wagners fighters are people who have been through several wars. Their skills in weapon handling and survival on the battlefield are honed in actual war.

Prigozhin received access to Russian jails in order to provide Wagner forces with many resources in the advance of Bakhmut in Ukraine. This is a violation of Russian law. However, all prisoners signed contracts voluntarily.

I think its because the West actually doesnt know what Wagner is and, most importantly, doesnt want to understand the essence of this ambiguous phenomenon. For the West, Wagner is an unknown and mysterious myth with a touch of romanticism. It is similar to how many people in the West, and not only, perceive the personality of Che Guevara [the iconic communist figure involved in the Cuban revolution]. Many people wear T-shirts with his image, but they would never want to live in a country governed by such Che Guevaras.

All accusations of war crimes by Wagner fighters are based solely on testimonies that are not supported by independent investigations. Often such testimonies lack any legal force. The accounts of crimes committed by Wagner in Mali are provided by individuals who are hostile toward the military authorities that have taken control of the country, and there is a lack of functioning independent sources of information in Mali.

The journalists accusing Wagner of crimes have never been to Mali themselves. I have always stated that the war against Ukraine is a crime, and Wagner has tarnished its reputation by participating in this war. But I don't believe that Wagner fighters commit crimes against civilians. It would damage Prigozhins image, as he claims himself as a defender of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine, and Donbas is a region where many Russian-speaking people are located. Personally, I think all the excitement around Wagner is a well-funded campaign by interested parties to discredit Wagner and push them out of Africa. The participants in this campaign actually dont care about Ukraine; they are working for the money they receive from sponsors.

Marat Gabidullin is the author of several books about his time with the Wagner mercenary army.

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Ex-Wagner Group soldier on the failed rebellion in Russia, Prigozhin fallout - Yahoo News

A stray remark by President Alexander G. Lukashenko of Belarus neatly encapsulated the imbalance in his relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in recent years. As the cameras rolled, Mr. Putin thanked him in February for traveling to Moscow for a meeting.

Mr. Lukashenko replied: As if I could not agree.

For all his status as an authoritarian leader who has crushed opponents during 29 years in power, Mr. Lukashenko has had to tread carefully with the man who rules the giant country to his east. He even referred in comments to journalists on Thursday to his big brother. He did not name his senior sibling directly, but it was not necessary.

But the brief mutiny in Russia last month led by the mercenary leader Yevgeny V. Prigozhin has also given Mr. Lukashenko at least temporarily an opening to upend the relationship.

In the aftermath, the Belarusian leader has positioned himself as the mediator, stepping into help bring an end to the armed rebellion. He again gloried in the spotlight on Thursday, as the purveyor of information about the whereabouts of Mr. Prigozhin.

In doing so, he may be trying to reclaim some of the leverage he once had with Mr. Putin who, at 70, is two years his senior. For years, Mr. Lukashanko adeptly navigated between Russia and the West, playing both sides to his advantage.

After the Cold War, he professed loyalty to Moscow while maintaining a distance. He even responded favorably on occasion to attempts to draw Belarus closer to western Europes economic sphere.

Then in 2020, he had to call on the Kremlin for help, to shore up his decadeslong rule after he had cracked down on protests over an election widely derided as fraudulent. Since then, Belarus has been almost entirely dependent on Russia.

Russia used Belarus as a launchpad for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, engendering sanctions and cementing its status as an international pariah. This year, in a further measure of a leader willing to defer to Mr. Putin without public complaint, Mr. Lukashenko even consented to having Moscow place nuclear weapons on his soil.

On June 24, as Mr. Prigozhins forces claimed control of the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don and began advancing toward Moscow, Mr. Lukashenko said in a statement that he had spoken to Mr. Putin and to Mr. Prigozhin. Hours later, the Belarusian state news agency released another statement saying that Mr. Prigozhin had agreed to halt his forces advance and take other steps to de-escalate the crisis.

What had looked like a possible coup attempt in Russia appeared to have ended with a diplomatic coup for Mr. Lukashenko.

Mr. Putin later called the Belarusian leader to thank him for his role in the talks, the Belarusian news agency said. Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, said that Mr. Lukashenko had personally offered to broker the deal, under which Mr. Prigozhin was allowed to go to Belarus and his fighters granted amnesty.

Three days after the uprising ended, Mr. Lukashenko said that the Wagner leader had arrived in Belarus. In Mr. Lukashenkos account of his role, published by Belarusian state media, he said that Mr. Putin had raised the possibility of killing Mr. Prigozhin during the Wagner uprising, but that Mr. Lukashenko had argued against it, saying that a bad peace is better than any war.

The Belarusian leader said that he had then called Mr. Prigozhin, warning him that Mr. Putin intended to squash him like a bug. There has been no confirmation of those conversations from the Kremlin or Mr. Prigozhin, who has largely been silent since aborting his revolt.

Still, observers say that the most important factor in Mr. Lukashenkos continued hold on power is that Mr. Putin remains in control in Russia.

The Belarusian leader appeared to acknowledge his reliance on Moscow last week, when he said he was motivated to intervene in the Wagner mutiny because if Russia collapses, we will remain under the rubble we will all die.

Valerie Hopkins and Anatoly Kurmanaev contributed reporting.

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Who Is Aleksandr Lukashenko? - The New York Times

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty

If you thought Russias mercenary mutiny saga couldnt get any weirder, it just did. Photos of rebel mastermind Yevgeny Prigozhin donning a series of outrageous disguises have leaked in the Russian media, reportedly having been discovered during a raid on one of his properties.

The images, circulated by Kremlin-connected Telegram channels and reportedly broadcast on at least one state-run TV channel, appear to be part of an effort to reverse months of propaganda lionizing Prigozhins Wagner Group as patriotic heroes after the mercenaries killed several Russian service members in an uprising that faced absolutely no resistance.

The photos show the Wagner Group founder trying out various identities with the help of fake beards, wigs, and bogus military uniforms, sparking comparisons to the Sacha Baron Cohen film Borat.

In one, Prigozhin is said to be posing as a staffer at Sudans Defense Ministry, in anothera diplomatic aide from Abu Dhabi. The disguises were reportedly used to provide cover for Wagners mercenary work overseas, though its not clear if they were ever very effective.

Other images shared from the raid show a massive sledgehammer reserved for important negotiations and a photo of decapitated heads, according to local St. Petersburg outlet Fontanka.

While state-controlled media appears to have embarked on a campaign to humiliate the traitorous mercenary boss in the eyes of the Russian people, his supposed banishment to Belarus that the Kremlin touted as a response to the mutiny may have have been just for show.

Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko told reporters on Thursday that Prigozhin is not, in fact, in Belarus but back home in St. Petersburg.

Where is he this morning? Maybe he went to Moscow, Lukashenko said.

Exiled Wagner Boss Returns to Russia and Gets His Weapons Back

As far as I am aware this morning, the Wagner fighters are located in their own camps. In their permanent camps, where they were located for recovery after their withdrawal from the front, he said, apparently referring to the groups camps in Ukraines Luhansk region.

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He went on to offer assurances that the one-time Vladimir Putin ally would not be assassinated as payback for the uprising.

He and I talked on the phone yesterday afternoon and we discussed the further actions of Wagner. He told me one thing: We will work for the good of Russia and fulfill our duty to the end. What will happen to him next? Well, in life anything can happen. But if you think that Putin is so malicious and vindictive that hell be taken out tomorrow no, that will not happen.

The Kremlin also claimed Thursday that it has not been paying any attention to Prigozhins movements.

Putins spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters the Kremlin had neither the opportunity nor the desire to track the Wagner boss whereabouts.

Read more at The Daily Beast.

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Photos Leak of Russias Mercenary Boss in Ridiculous Disguises - Yahoo! Voices

U.S. officials tell NPR that the Biden administration plans to send cluster bombs, or munitions, to Ukraine to target dug-in Russian forces. An announcement is expected tomorrow.

The controversial weapons drop dozens of bomblets that human rights groups say endanger civilians.

Ukraine and Russia are already using cluster munitions on the battlefield, but Ukraine is running low on ammunition and has pressed the U.S. to send such weapons.

Officials say the cluster bombs will be effective against Russian forces in strong defensive positions as well as command and control headquarters.

More than 100 countries ban such weapons because unexploded bomblets can be picked up by civilians, causing injury or death. Cluster bombs release a larger number of bomblets over a wide area, and they can continue to pose a deadly risk even long after the fighting has ceased.

The U.S. has a large stockpile of cluster munitions and used them in both the Afghan and Iraq wars.

The rest is here:

U.S. is expected to announce it will send cluster munitions to Ukraine - NPR

Even with sheets of rain falling, the sprawling construction site was buzzing. Yellow and orange excavators slowly danced around a maze of muddy pits, swinging giant fistfuls of dirt as a chorus line of trucks traipsed across the landscape.

This 50-acre plot in Oradea, Romania, close to the border with Hungary, beat out scores of other sites in Europe to become the home of Nokian Tyres new 650 million-euro, or $706 million, factory. Like an industrial-minded Goldilocks, the Finnish tire company had searched for the just-right combination of real estate, transport links, labor supply and pro-business environment.

Yet the make-or-break feature that every host country had to have would not have even appeared on the radar a few years ago: membership in both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Geopolitical risk was the starting point, said Jukka Moisio, the chief executive and president of Nokian. That was not the case before Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Nokian Tyres altered business strategy highlights the transformed global economic playing field that governments and companies are confronting. As the war in Ukraine drags on and tensions rise between the United States and China, critical decisions about offices, supply chains, investments and sales are no longer primarily ruled by concerns about costs.

As the world re-globalizes, assessments of political threats loom much larger than before.

This is a world that has fundamentally changed, said Henry Farrell, a political scientist at Johns Hopkins. We cannot just think in terms of innovation and efficiency. We have to think about security, too.

For Nokian Tyres, which first sold shares on the Helsinki stock exchange in 1995, the new reality struck like a hammer blow. Roughly 80 percent of Nokians passenger car tires were manufactured in Russia. And the country accounted for 20 percent of its sales.

The perils of over-concentration hit home, Mr. Moisio said, when your company loses billions.

Within six weeks of the wars start, it became clear that the company had no choice but to exit Russia and ramp up production elsewhere. Rubber had been added to the European Unions rapidly expanding package of sanctions. Public sentiment in Finland soured. The share price plunged. In January 2022, the share price was over 34; today its 8.25.

We were very exposed, Mr. Moisio said, sipping coffee in a sunny conference room at the companys low-key Helsinki office. The Russian operation had high returns, but it also had high risks, a fact that, over time, had faded from view.

Diversifying may not be as efficient or cheap, he said, but its far more secure.

C-suite executives are relearning that the market often fails to accurately measure risk. A January survey of 1,200 global chief executives by the consulting firm EY found that 97 percent had altered their strategic investment plans because of new geopolitical tensions. More than a third said they were relocating operations.

China, which has become an increasingly fraught home for foreign businesses and investment, is among the places that firms are leaving. Roughly one in four companies planned to move operations out of the country, a survey conducted last year by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China found.

Businesses are suddenly finding themselves stranded in the no-mans land of warring empires, Mr. Farrell and his co-author, Abraham Newman, argue in a new book.

Mr. Moisios tenure at Nokian has coincided with the triple crown of crises. He started in May 2020, a few months after the Covid-19 pandemic essentially shut down global commerce. Like other companies, Nokian hunkered down, cutting production and capital spending. Its lack of outstanding debt helped it ride out the storm.

And when the economy bounced back, Nokian scrambled to restart production and restock raw materials amid a huge breakdown of the supply chain and transportation. The war posed an existential threat to Nokians operations.

Adding production lines to existing facilities is often the fastest and cheapest way to increase output. Still, Nokian decided not to expand its operation in Russia.

Production there was already concentrated, Mr. Moisio said, but more important, the persistent supply chain bottlenecks underscored the added risks and costs of transporting materials over long distances.

Going forward, instead of locating 80 percent of production in one spot, often far from the market, 80 percent of production would be local or regional.

It turned upside down, Mr. Moisio said.

Tires for the Nordic market would be produced in Finland. Tires for American customers would be manufactured in the United States. And in the future, Europe would be serviced by a European factory.

Diversification had, to some extent, already been incorporated into the companys strategic plan. It opened a plant in Dayton, Tenn., in 2019, in addition to the original factory that operated in Nokia, the Finnish town that gave the tire maker its name.

At the end of 2021, the company opened new production lines at both of those plants.

When it came time to build the next factory, executives figured it would be in Eastern Europe, close to its largest European markets in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and France, as well as Poland and the Czech Republic.

That moment came much sooner than anyone expected.

In June 2022, less than four months after the invasion of Ukraine, Nokian executives asked the board to approve an exit from Russia and the construction of a new plant.

Negotiations to leave Russia commenced, as did a high-speed search for a new location. Aided by the consulting firm Deloitte, the site assessment process, which included dozens of candidates across Europe, was completed in four months, said Adrian Kaczmarczyk, senior vice president of supply operations. By comparison, in 2015 Deloitte took nine months to recommend a site in a single country, the United States.

The aim was to start commercial production by early 2025.

Serbia had a flourishing automotive sector, but was eliminated from the get-go because it was in neither the European Union nor NATO. Turkey was a member of NATO but not the European Union. And Hungary was labeled high risk because of its illiberal prime minister, Viktor Orban, and close relationship with Russia.

At each successive round, a long list of other considerations kicked in. Where were the closest highway, harbor and rail lines? Was there a sufficient pool of qualified employees? Was land available? Could permitting and construction time be fast-tracked? How pro-business were the authorities?

Nokian would have looked to reduce a new factorys carbon footprint in any event, Mr. Moisio, the chief executive, said. But the decision to commit to a 100 percent emissions-free plant probably would not have happened in the absence of war. After all, cheap gas from Russia was what helped lure Nokian there in the first place. Now, the disappearance of that supply accelerated the companys thinking about ending dependence on fossil fuels.

Disruption allowed us to think differently, Mr. Moisio said.

As the winnowing progressed, a complex matrix of small and large considerations came into play. Was there good health care and an international school where foreign managers could send their children? What was the likelihood of natural disasters?

Countries and cities fell out for various reasons. Slovenia and the Czech Republic were considered low-to-medium-risk countries, but Mr. Kaczmarczyk said they couldnt find appropriate plots of land.

Slovakia fell into the same bucket and already had a large automotive industry. Bratislava, though, made clear it had no interest in attracting more heavy industry, only information technology, Mr. Kaczmarczyk said.

At the end, six candidates made Deloittes final cut: two sites in Romania, two in Poland, and one each in Portugal and Spain.

The messy mix of new and old considerations that businesses have to contemplate were evident in the list of finalists. Geopolitics, as the Nokian Tyres chief executive said, had been a starting point, but it was not necessarily the end point.

Spain has virtually no geopolitical risk. And the site in El Rebollar had a large talent pool, but Deloitte ruled it out because of high wage costs and heavy labor regulations. Portugal, another country with no security risk, was rejected because of worries about the power supply and the speed of the permitting process.

Poland, along with Hungary and Serbia, had been labeled high risk despite its staunch anti-Russia stance. It has an antidemocratic government and has repeatedly clashed with the European Commission over the primacy of European legislation and the independence of Polands courts.

Yet low labor costs, the presence of other multinational employers and a quick permitting process outweighed the worries enough to elevate the sites in Gorzow and Konin to second and third place.

Oradea, the top recommendation, ultimately offered a better balance among the companys competing priorities. The cost of labor in Romania, like Poland, was among the lowest in Europe. And its risk rating, though labeled relatively high, was lower than Polands.

There were other pluses as well in Oradea. Construction could start immediately; utilities were already in place; a new solar power plant was in the works. The amount of development grants from the European Union for companies investing in Romania was larger than in Poland. And local officials were enthusiastic.

Mihai Jurca, Oradeas city manager, detailed the areas appeal during a tour of the turreted confection of Art Nouveau buildings in the renovated city center.

It was a flourishing cultural and commercial city, a junction point between East and West, in the early 20th century, under the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Mr. Jurca said.

Today the city, an affluent economic hub of 220,000 with a university, has solicited businesses and European Union funds, while constructing industrial parks that house domestic and international companies like Plexus, a British electronics manufacturer, and Eberspaecher, a German automotive supplier.

Nokian is not looking to replicate the kind of megafactory in Romania that it ran in Russia or anywhere else, for that matter. The idea of concentrating production is old-fashioned, Mr. Moisio said.

For him, the company emerged from crisis mode on March 16, the day $258 million from the sale of its Russian operation landed in Nokians bank account. Although only a fraction of the total value, the amount helped finance the construction and closed out the companys involvement with Russia.

Now uncertainty is the norm, Mr. Moisio said, and business leaders need to constantly be asking: What can we do? Whats our Plan B?

Continue reading here:

The Russia-Ukraine War Changed This Finland Company Forever - The New York Times

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy believes that there has already been a split in Russian society, the chain of command that Putin has been building for many years has crumbled, and the Russian dictator has weakened, so it is time for the world to put more pressure on him.

Source: Zelenskyy in an interview with CNN

Quote from Zelenskyy: "Putin does not control the situation in the regions. He does not control the security situation. We all understand that his entire army is on the territory of Ukraine, almost all of it. And that's why the Wagner Group went so easily (during the 24 June rebellion ed.), because who can stop them?

He doesn't control regional politics, he doesn't control the people who are there. That is, the entire vertical that he had, it crumbled."

Details: Zelenskyy also commented on an interesting study, which Ukrainian intelligence says was conducted by the Kremlin; the survey showed that in Russia, during the Wagner Group rebellion, half of the people supported Prigozhin and half supported Putin.

Quote from Zelenskyy: "18 or 19 regions of Russia specifically supported Prigozhin's actions, and 21 specifically supported Putin. And a certain number of regions did not know whom to support. Half of the people in Russia are wavering. And very much so.

All the stories that he controls everything are merely stories. That is, it's a different Putin I'm not talking about a different person this is a different person in terms of power: an old man; a man who is not in his prime; a man who does not control processes."

Details: Zelenskyy believes that right now, when Putin is so weak and when he has made his main mistake, attacking Ukraine, the world needs to put pressure on him.

The president also predicts that the Russian dictator will now be busy trying to somehow bring the society together.

According to him, this is particularly evidenced by his trips to remote regions.

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"Where does Putin leave his bunker? He went to Dagestan. If you look at the analytics, he went to Dagestan, where Putin has the least support a lot of people died there, whom he sent to die in the war and Prigozhin has the most support there. He just goes to Dagestan as a political monster, where they shoot a theatrical video, where he is supposedly cheered by a certain number of people. It's a one-man theatre," Zelenskyy concluded.

Background:

Earlier, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the rebellion of Wagner Group mercenaries showed the weakness of Russia, and Ukraine should take advantage of this.

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Russia is split, chain of command crumbles Zelenskyy - Yahoo News

Tensions between U.S. and Russian forces in the skies over Syria appear to have been further ratcheted up, with a hostile encounter between a Su-35S Flanker-E fighter and a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 Reaper drone.

In the latest such incident over Syria, the Russian jet dumped parachute flares in the path of the unmanned aerial vehicle, apparently the first time this has happened. The Pentagon has accused the Russians of reckless behavior. While this kind of activity is not necessarily new in the Middle East, the latest uptick led to the deployment of U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor stealth fighters to the region last month. Meanwhile, similar incidents have also taken place over the Black Sea, one of which resulted in the loss of an MQ-9 Reaper, and elsewhere as well.

The Air Force has said that three Su-35s and three MQ-9s were involved in the incident. A video released by the Pentagon shows a series of clips, filmed from the MQ-9s, in which one or more Russian Su-35s are seen closing in on the Reapers, followed by several parachute flares drifting into the drones flight paths.

In a statement yesterday, July 5, Lt. Gen. Alex Grynkewich, head of U.S. Air Forces Central (AFCENT), provided the following details of the incident:

Earlier today at approximately 10:40 A.M., Russian military aircraft engaged in unsafe and unprofessional behavior while interacting with U.S. aircraft in Syria, Grynkewich said.

While three U.S. MQ-9 drones were conducting a mission against ISIS [Islamic State of Iraq and Syria] targets, three Russian fighter jets began harassing the drones. Against established norms and protocols, the Russian jets dropped multiple parachute flares in front of the drones, forcing our aircraft to conduct evasive maneuvers.

While intercepting fighters dropping flares in the paths of U.S. and allied aircraft is not unheard of, these have traditionally involved infrared decoys launched from their standard countermeasures systems.

The description of parachute flares and the accompanying photos indicate that a different type of store was involved.

Russian parachute flares like the M6 are typically carried for air defense training missions, being dropped from external pylons as targets for engagement by air-to-air or air-to-surface missiles. These stores, looking much like small bombs, can be fitted with infrared flares or radar reflectors, for training with either heat-seeking or radar-guided missile types.

While there is no guarantee that dropping these flares would result in contact with a drone, the use of these flares is more evidence pointing to a significant change in tactics in which U.S. drones are viewed by Russia as legitimate targets with the potential to be destroyed. At the same time, their longer burn time (compared to standard infrared decoys) and slower rate of descent make them potentially a bigger hazard for relatively unmaneuverable Reapers with low situational awareness.

The fact that these stores are now being carried by Russian fighters in Syria suggests they are intended for the specific purpose of interfering with U.S. and allied air activities. Indeed, the load-out would seem to be tailored for drone-harassment sorties.

As well as dropping parachute flares, the Air Force added that One Russian pilot positioned their aircraft in front of an MQ-9 and engaged afterburner, thereby reducing the operators ability to safely operate the aircraft.

These events represent another example of unprofessional and unsafe actions by Russian air forces operating in Syria, which threaten the safety of both U.S. and Russian forces, Grynkewich added. We urge Russian forces in Syria to cease this reckless behavior and adhere to the standards of behavior expected of a professional air force so we can resume our focus on the enduring defeat of ISIS.

In a separate statement, Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, head of U.S. Central Command, claimed that Russias violation of ongoing efforts to clear the airspace over Syria increases the risk of escalation or miscalculation.

Exactly where this latest encounter took place has not been disclosed, although MQ-9 missions over Syria are regular, with these drones being used to support the fight against the militants of the so-called Islamic State that still operate in the country, as well as directly targeting higher-level terrorists.

Based on open-source geolocation, the incident appears to have taken place over the village of Sousianin (alternatively Sosyan or Susiyan) in northern Aleppo Governorate, northwestern Syria.

The standoff between Russian and U.S. airpower over Syria had previously led to an incident in which a Russian-operated Pantsir-S1 (SA-22 Greyhound) ground-based air defense system fired on an MQ-9 flying over the eastern part of the country, but failed to shoot it down. The extent of damage to the drone remains unknown.

That incident occurred in November 2022, but details only emerged in April this year, after Pentagon documents were leaked online by Airman 1st Class Jack Douglas Teixeira of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

The War Zone was the first to get on-the-record confirmation of this incident, which you can read more about here.

The revelation of the Pantsir-S1 incident came as senior U.S. commanders had increasingly been discussing what they described as an uptick in aggressive Russian behavior in Syria and elsewhere in the world.

In April, AFCENT released two declassified videos that it says show other examples of risky encounters with Russian aircraft over Syria. In both cases, the clips also show heavily armed Russian Su-35s, filmed by U.S. combat jets in the region.

That same month, AFCENT stated that armed Russian fighter aircraft had directly flown over U.S.-led coalition forces in Syria at least 26 times between March 1 to April 19. The command also said that there had been 63 violations since March of deconfliction protocols between U.S. and Russian forces.

While formal deconfliction arrangements between the U.S. and Russian militaries in Syria were introduced in 2019, the Kremlins forces have been repeatedly accused of violating their terms.

Part of the U.S. military response to these incidents has been the deployment to the Middle East of F-22s from the 94th Fighter Squadron, headquartered at Joint Base LangleyEustis in Virginia. These jets can provide escort missions for drones if required. You can read more about that development in our report here.

The presence of F-22s in the region does also raise questions about the response to the latest MQ-9 incident. The Raptors were expressly deployed in response to these kinds of scenarios and there is, so far, no mention of them or any other aircraft even heading to the area after the Su-35s appeared. Looking for additional information on this, we have reached out to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), which then directed us to AFCENT, who we have we have also contacted for more.

Around the same time the F-22s were arriving at an airbase in Jordan, Lt. Gen. Grynkewich, speaking during Defense Ones Tech Summit, observed that the increasingly close relations between Russia and Iran had also contributed to a changing dynamic over Syria.

That dynamic, I think, has resulted in collusion, if you will, between the Russians and the Iranians, both of whom want to see us out of Syria, Grynkewich said. Theyre [also] colluding with the Syrian regime and trying to push us out of Syria as quick as they can.

Not just Syria, but also the strategic Black Sea region has seen tense encounters between Russian and U.S. military aircraft. In March this year, for example, a Russian Su-27 Flanker-B fighter collided with a U.S. MQ-9 over the Black Sea resulting in the drone crashing. The Pentagon described the intercept as reckless and unprofessional and it also included the Flanker making multiple passes very close to the drone and dumping fuel on it, as you can read more about here.

Two Russian Su-27s conducts an unsafe and unprofessional intercept with a U.S. Air Force MQ-9 over the Black Sea on March 14, 2023:

Also over the Black Sea, in an incident last September, a dramatic encounter between a U.K. Royal Air ForceRC-135W Rivet Jointelectronic surveillance aircraft and a RussianSu-27fighter saw the latter launch a missile. Whether deliberate or not, that missile appears to have malfunctioned, preventing what could have been a very serious international incident.

All these incidents also need to be seen in the context of deteriorating relations between the United States and Russia ever since the Kremlin launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. As Russias relations with the United States and many other Western countries have taken a turn for the worse, its not a surprise that spillover effects are being felt elsewhere in Europe and other parts of the rest of the world, including in Syria.

Taken together, the level of harassment that U.S. drones are facing from the Russian military is concerning. After all, dropping multiple parachute flares (even as opposed to infrared decoys) presents a very real risk of taking down a drone flying in close proximity. Moscow surely sees the damage or destruction of a drone as a lower-risk outcome, bearing in mind there is no danger of killing foreign military personnel. Supporting the idea of the lower stakes involved is the fact that previous incidents involving the loss of U.S. drones, both over the Black Sea and over the Gulf of Oman did not lead to any kind of direct retaliation.

At the same time, the potential for escalation remains, and increasingly belligerent actions by Russian pilots and air defense personnel, whatever their nature, bring risks of their own, even if through a simple error or misunderstanding.

The French have just said their Rafales also had a unsafe encounter with Russian Su-35s along the border with Iraq. The tweet states:

"On 06/07, 2 Rafales on a protection mission on the Iraqi-Syrian border reacted to a non-professional interaction on the part of an SU-35. The pilots maneuvered in order to control the risk of accident before continuing their patrol."

See the original post here:

Russia Now Using Parachute Flares In Attempts To Down U.S. MQ-9 Reapers - The War Zone

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant seen after the Dnipro Rivers water levels were affected by the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam.Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

Russia and Ukraine accused each other on Wednesday of plotting to sabotage the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in southern Ukraine and the leader of the U.N.s nuclear watchdog called for greater access for inspections amid rising tensions over one of the wars main flash points, even as analysts said the immediate risk of serious harm to the facility appeared low.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, citing the countrys intelligence service, said that Russian troops who seized the plant in March of last year had placed objects that look like explosives on the roof of several of its power units, possibly with the intent of simulating an attack and blaming it on Ukraine.

In an apparent response to Mr. Zelenskys concerns, the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said on Wednesday that its inspectors at the site had not seen any indications of mines or explosions, but that the agency had requested additional access to parts of the plant to confirm that finding.

With military tension and activities increasing in the region where this major nuclear power plant is located, our experts must be able to verify the facts on the ground, the agencys director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said in a statement.

Ukrainian officials have been increasingly ratcheting up warnings of nuclear sabotage.

The only source of danger to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is Russia and no one else, Mr. Zelensky said in a nightly speech, adding that he had spoken by telephone with President Emmanuel Macron of France about his concerns. Hanna Malyar, a Ukrainian deputy defense minister, accused Russia on Wednesday of escalating the situation at the plant.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said that Ukraine planned to sabotage the plant and that Russia had taken measures to counteract the threat. He described the situation as quite tense. He cited no evidence for the claim and provided no details.

The nuclear plant, the largest in Europe and the first to be occupied by foreign troops, has been the focus of global concern since early in the war. Mr. Grossi has repeatedly issued warnings of the chances of disaster, including one last month over an extremely fragile security situation, amid shelling around the plant and other security issues.

Ukrainian authorities conducted drills last week to test their emergency response, though some residents in the city of Nikopol, just a few miles from the plant, said they had no plans to leave, in part because they have nowhere else to go.

Biden administration officials have said that they did not believe a threat was imminent but that they were watching very, very closely.

The Ukrainian and Russian warnings have intensified in recent weeks after the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam downstream of the plant last month.

Moscow blamed Ukraine for the blast at the dam, but a New York Times analysis found that evidence suggested that Russia had blown up the dam itself. The dams destruction killed dozens, partly drained the reservoir next to the power plant and flooded the Dnipro River basin.

Unfortunately, there was no timely and large-scale response to the terrorist attack on the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant and this may incite the Kremlin to commit new evil, Mr. Zelensky said.

Russia, which has illegally annexed the Zaporizhzhia region, has tried to impose management control on the plant, which it now considers state property, using its state nuclear company.

The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, noted the heightened rhetoric at the plant, which it said could be part of preparations for a Russian false flag attack of some kind, but also added that provocative Russian statements were likely part of an information operation meant to accuse Ukraine of irresponsibility at the plant and distract Ukrainian forces from the counteroffensive.

Russia remains unlikely to generate a radiological incident at the ZNPP at this time, it said in a report, adding that the plants reactors were constructed to withstand considerable damage.

Anatoly Kurmanaev contributed reporting.

See original here:

Explosions in Lviv in Western Ukraine Injure at Least 4 - The New York Times

The Pentagon is moving to block Chinese and Russian organizations from obtaining U.S. technology secrets through academia, according to a Department of Defense memo made public on June 30.

The memo, signed by Heidi Shyu, undersecretary of defense for research and engineering, lists more than 80 Chinese and Russian academic, scientific, engineering, or cultural institutions that have engaged in problematic activity geared at improperly gaining access to classified U.S. research or influencing teaching staff or students. The memo is a response to the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, which sought a Pentagon response to foreign intelligence exploitation of U.S. academic institutions.

The memo requires a review of new research contracts and prohibits Pentagon money going to projects that involve one of the blacklisted entities, based on their previous track record in harvesting U.S. technology secrets, or simply having suspect relationships with Chinese and Russian intelligence organizations.

Those on the list have been confirmed as engaging in problematic activity as described in Section 1286 of the Fiscal Year 2019 National Defense Authorization Act, as amended, the Pentagon said. These include practices and behaviors that increase the likelihood that DOD-funded research and development efforts will be misappropriated to the detriment of national or economic security or be subject to violations of research integrity or foreign government interference.

The listing of these foreign entities underscores our commitment to ensuring the responsible use of federal research funding and safeguarding our critical technologies from exploitation or compromise, said Shyu in releasing the memo.

The goal of the memo and policy is three-fold, Shyu said:

Along with the suspect foreign entities list, the Pentagon posted a Policy for Risk-Based Security Reviews of Fundamental Research, which now requires that any basic research funded by the Defense Department go through a review for potential conflicts of interest and conflicts of commitment rising from foreign influence. The policy includes a template for DOD program managers to follow in awarding contracts for research, to help them spot signs of potential foreign influence and appropriately mitigate risk.

The Pentagon encourages academic institutions, industry partners, and the public to review the list and exercise caution when engaging with entities listed, Shyu said.

China and Russia have both engaged in long-term cyber espionage, stealing technology secrets from U.S. companies, and the new effort is aimed at thwarting similar efforts through colleges and universities.

Not all of the targeted institutions are focused solely on direct espionage. One, the Confucius Institutes, awards scholarships to students in a variety of academic fields and offers free Chinese language lessons, along with free trips to China to students with desirable knowledge. The Heritage Foundation described the Confucius Institute as a Trojan Horse, seeking to convince American students and professors that China is a benign actor and a potentially constructive partner in research, when actually, Heritage said, it is part of a soft power campaign to encourage research organizations to share sensitive knowledge with China.

The Confucius Institute has satellite locations on scores of U.S. university campuses, but the new guidelines say that from 2024 forward, no American college or university with a Confucius Institute presence can receive Pentagon research money without a detailed waiver.

Other organizations on the list have lent or granted money to research organizations and universities, in exchange for access to the results of defense-oriented research.

The Government Accountability Office identified the practices of these suspect entities in a 2020 report and urged the Pentagon to put policies in place that would protect U.S. research and researchers from hostile entities posing as scientific benefactors.

Shyu and her recent predecessors have pushed for greater Pentagon-academic partnerships to address technology challenges that could have commercial benefit to the U.S. economy, as well as military-only challenges that could make headway with funding or resources supplied by the DOD. Hypersonics testing capabilities are among those the Pentagon is setting up at academic institutions.

The FBI has reported an uptick in recent years of Chinese and Russian research organizations attempting to recruit agents in the scientific community, or inducing them to sell or share their work, or research to which they have access.

Excerpt from:

Pentagon Aims to Stop China and Russia from Spying on Academia | Air & Space Forces Magazine - Air & Space Forces Magazine