Monthly Archives: June 2023

Dmytro Kuleba, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, believes that the rebellion in Russia would have damaged the morale of Russian troops had it lasted two days longer.

Source: Kuleba in an interview with CNN

Quote: "If this mutiny had lasted for 48 hours more, I'm pretty certain we would have felt a demoralising impact on the Russian forces fighting in the south and east of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, Prigozhin gave up too quickly. So there was no time for this demoralising effect to penetrate Russian trenches."

Background:

The Wagner Group mercenaries advanced 780 kilometres deep into Russia and stopped only 200 kilometres from Moscow. Prigozhin stated that he was stopping the so-called "justice march" to avoid bloodshed and that the rebellion was a protest, not an attempt to overthrow the government.

Western media outlets stated that the rebellion in Russia was a "gift" for the Ukrainian offensive and that it was likely to change the course of the war.

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Prigozhin surrendered too quickly, occupiers in Ukraine did not have time to lose heart Ukraine's Foreign Minister - Yahoo News

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in the early stages of planning a trip to Ukraine, Ukrainian Ambassador to Israel Yevgen Kornichuk said on Wednesday.

Kornichuk discussed the matter with the Prime Ministers Office a day earlier and found that they were willing to consider a visit to Kyiv.

Netanyahu is reconsidering issues related to Russia following the attempted coup over the weekend, he said.

The trip is in a very preliminary stage of planning and no date has been set, the ambassador said.

The Prime Ministers Office said that no decision has been made.

I told them that the fastest way for Netanyahu to get to the White House is through Kyiv, Kornichuk said. The invitation is on the table and has been passed on a couple of times and I hope it will be accepted and we will see Mr. Netanyahu in Kyiv.

The ambassadors remark is a reversal of the usual situation in recent decades, in which countries tried to get closer to Washington by strengthening their relationships with Jerusalem. Netanyahu has yet to be invited to the White House, and US President Joe Biden has indicated that the reason is the Israeli governments planned judicial reform.

Best Radio, an Israeli Russian-language station, reported on Wednesday that Netanyahu is considering a stop in Chiinu to meet the president of Moldova en route to Kyiv.

The Foreign Ministry publicly recommended for the first time that Netanyahu meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The head of the Foreign Ministrys Eurasia Division Yuval Fuchs made the remark at a meeting of the Foreign Policy Subcommittee of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday.

The subcommittee convened to discuss Israel's stance on the Ukraine-Russia war after Kornichuk, sharply criticized Israel's inaction in providing military aid to Ukraine.

Subcommittee chairman MK Gideon Sa'ar (National Camp) expressed the need for Israel to take a more visible, active role in aiding Ukraine.

"The issue of the war in Ukraine remains the number one concern for the world, the international community and international public opinion. In the eyes of the Western world, Israel remains on the sidelines of this conflict. There is a need for a renewed assessment of the Israeli policy towards the war in Ukraine," Sa'ar said.

"Prime Minister Netanyahu should travel to Kyiv - it could reduce this rift," he stated, calling for Israel to implement any agreements with Ukraine that have been delayed.

Saar went on to warn against the Russian-Iranian partnership as a threat to Israel.

Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Yuli Edelstein (Likud) concurred, saying that the nonstop developments in the war between Russia and Ukraine have ramifications for the whole world, including us.

Ukraine has become Irans playing field, he added. Iranian weapons flood the region, Iranian technology and Russian cooperation are a clear danger to the security of the State of Israel.

Edelstein said that the whole world is focused on this war and Israel is still deliberating and dragging its feet. It is clear to everyone what is the right and moral thing to do, and every day that we sit on the fence, we are isolating ourselves and giving the Iranians more time to get stronger. This must change immediately.

MK Ze'ev Elkin (National Camp), chairman of the Israel-Ukraine Parliamentary Friendship Association, said that while Israel has been concerned about incurring consequences from Russia if it takes a firm stance favoring Ukraine, there may likewise be consequences for not doing so. He lamented that Israel is falling behind the Western world in this regard.

"The West continues to raise their level of assistance while we remain stuck in the same mind frame of the first day of the war. This is a grave mistake. Israel must urgently wake up and change its policy towards the Russia-Ukraine war," Elkin said.

Elkin, who was born in Kharkiv, has a brother and two nieces who live in the city, as well as other relatives in Ukraine. Edelstein was also born in Ukraine.

In an interview with the Jerusalem Post last week, Netanyahu said that the deconfliction mechanism between Jerusalem and Moscow is critical in allowing Israel to strike Iranian targets, as long as the Russian military has a presence in Syria.

"Our pilots are flying right next to Russian pilots over the skies of Syria," Netanyahu said. "And I think its important that we maintain our freedom of action against Irans attempts to place itself militarily on our northern border."

Days later, the Ukrainian Embassy lambasted Israel for a "near absence of... humanitarian assistance to Ukraine in the first half of this year and that the "relevant statements made by the Israeli prime minister have always aimed at justifying Israels complete inaction in providing Ukraine with defensive assistance [since the start of the war.]"

Jerusalem Post staff contributed to this report.

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Netanyahu considering visit to Ukraine, Kyiv's envoy to Israel says - The Jerusalem Post

June 27, 2023 at 12:19 p.m. EDT

KREMINNA FOREST, Ukraine For five days, the attacking Russians threw everything they had at the Ukrainian brigade defending a patch of forest here on the eastern front mortar, artillery, flamethrowers and tank fire mowing down whatever stood in their way. By the sixth day, bodies littered the smoldering terrain. Only a scorched field and blackened tree stumps remained.

We had to retreat, said an infantryman, who goes by the call sign Master, describing the battle earlier this month. It was very challenging for the infantry to hold the front, because we were being pushed very hard by the Russians, without adequate artillery cover.

Russia is still on the attack on the eastern front of Ukraine. (Video: The Washington Post)

The forest, just west of Kreminna, a Russian-occupied town in Ukraines Luhansk region, is now an epicenter of some of the wars fiercest fighting. But unlike elsewhere on the eastern and southern fronts, where Ukraine has mounted a long-anticipated counteroffensive, the fighting here is being driven by Russia in its latest push to seize the entire eastern Donbas region.

According to Ukrainian soldiers, Moscow has bolstered its eastern forces and intensified its attacks, aiming to recapture towns and cities that Ukraine liberated in the fall.

Master, who was recuperating from the battle in Yampil, a front-line village on the outskirts of the forest in eastern Ukraine, said that as a result of the attack, the Russians had advanced roughly 300 to 400 meters up to a quarter of a mile on the north side of the forest. They are certainly attacking more intensely and advancing in this direction, he said. The Washington Post is not identifying Master or other soldiers because of security concerns.

Unlike in Zaporizhzhia, for instance, where the Russians are dug into heavily fortified defenses and the Ukrainians are trying to advance, in the Kreminna forest, the side that is attacking or defending can vary day to day or even hour by hour.

A Ukrainian platoon commander, who goes by the call-sign Hephaestus, said Russias operations in the east had dramatically increased. Within just one 24-hour stretch this week, he said, there were six attempted attacks on his brigades sector.

They are losing the initiative in the south and near Bakhmut, Hephaestus said. Therefore, they need to give something to Russian society at a political level to show they have some ambition and advantage. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions have always been a priority for Russia.

A British intelligence memo on Sunday reported that Russian forces had made a significant effort to launch an attack on the Serebryanka forest near Kreminna, an adjoining forest to the southeast of the Kreminna wood.

This probably reflects continued Russian senior leadership orders to go on the offensive whenever possible, the memo stated Russia has made some small gains, but Ukrainian forces have prevented a breakthrough.

The Kreminna forest is now one of the most dangerous spots on the front line. Winding toward the forest through the moonscape of what used to be peoples homes, there are few signs of life. A lone soldier on a bicycle. A rusting basketball hoop. People live here, scrawled across the gate of a shrapnel-riddled house. The gargantuan task Ukraine faces in reclaiming its stolen territory is quickly apparent.

On Saturday, Post journalists accompanied the platoon commander Hephaestus as he drove to fallback positions in the forest. A voice crackled on the walkie-talkie. Up ahead, theres a mortar unit be aware, they could fire at any time. The road through the forest is unpredictable and constantly hit by mortar rounds and artillery. Warrens of trenches run through the woods, while armored vehicles and rocket launchers are tucked away in the undergrowth.

The concentration of the enemy is now much higher in the forests of Kreminna than in any other areas of the front, Hephaestus explained. It is connected with the landscape. Thanks to the dense forests, it is easy enough for the enemy to hide a large number of troops and equipment.

Every movement should be gradual, he added. The priority for us is every human life. If we use them unplanned and irrationally, there will be unjustifiably immense sacrifices.

A group of medics stationed at an evacuation point in the forest said the situation varied from week to week but had become more noticeably harder in recent days. In previous weeks, they were rotated every 10 days, but now, they are being rotated every two due to the uptick in fighting.

Two days ago, we were working throughout the night, I lost track of how many calls there were, said a 25-year-old medic known as Priest. He played a recording he had made on his phone of an assault near their position one night that week: a stomach-twisting soundtrack of relentless bombardments that lasted for hours.

Priest estimated that casualties for the Lyman region, which includes the Kreminna forest, has increased by 10 times. In his particular brigade, he said, there had been about 70 casualties in two days.

A web of threats lurk in the woods. The terrain itself a mishmash of thick pine forests, swamps, lakes and hills is difficult and hinders the rapid advance of assault units. Mines, drones and smoke from the near-constant fires that rage from the shelling make the territory even more lethal. Then there are roving reconnaissance groups.

The Kreminna forest, located just west of a Russian-occupied town in Ukraine's Luhansk region, is now an epicenter of some of the war's fiercest fighting. (Video: The Washington Post)

One night last week, Hephaestus carefully led his unit on a mission to find weak spots in enemy lines. As the unit slowly made its way in the dark through the dense woodland, cutting through thickets of nettles and foxgloves, they could smell the burning pines. The Russians were bombing the woods again with flamethrowers, a tactic used to both obscure the view of reconnaissance drones and to smoke out the locations of Ukrainian positions and equipment.

Suddenly, the lead scouts signaled that they had spotted movement up ahead. The unit stopped. Looking through night-vision goggles, they identified the silhouettes of a Russian reconnaissance unit farther up in the woods, roughly 10 meters away. The unit opened fire. A few minutes later, all the Russians lay dead.

This is the forest, said Hephaestus with a shrug, adding that it is common to come face-to-face with enemy units in the woods. Sometimes we are able to catch the enemy by surprise if you stand still, you can hear a crunch, a whisper especially at night when its quiet.

Sometimes the Russians wear Ukrainian uniforms taken from the soldiers they killed or captured, to try to infiltrate Ukrainian lines. They can be a large, elite fighting group or a handful of inexperienced recruits who were sent directly to the front lines.

When a Post reporting team visited an artillery position on the Serebryanka flank on Saturday morning, active hostilities were underway. The percussive booms of shells and whistle of incoming fire cut through the otherwise eerie silence. Five young, exhausted soldiers emerged blinking into the sunlight from their shelter and hurried to their positions, where they prepared to fire several rounds from an L119 howitzer gun.

Their 40-year-old commanding officer, who goes by the call sign Scythian, has been stationed in the area for the past six months and said that the level of shelling from the Russian side had increased in recent weeks. He said the Russians had also amassed armored vehicles and tanks that had not been observed before. That the enemy is building up forces in this area is clear, he said.

An artillery commander of the National Guard, who goes by the call sign Brave, said that the battle lines in the forest were constantly shifting and rarely stable.

The enemy, like us, retreats in places and conducts counteroffensive actions; they break through certain positions and lines. Like us, in some places, they advance and elsewhere they sacrifice some positions, he said.

Brave said that such attacks can happen up to 10 times a day. When there is a tip from reconnaissance units that perhaps an infantry breakthrough is being prepared or a concentration is taking place in the forest, we begin to work, he said.

Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict

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On this part of the eastern front, Russia is still on the attack - The Washington Post

As Russia's invasion enters its 17th month, Ukrainian forces say Moscow is ramping up its use of low-cost suicide drones that are capable of destroying equipment many times their value and not easy to defend against.

The Lancet drone, an angular gray tube with two sets of four wings, has been an increasing threat on Ukraine's frontlines in recent months, according to Ukrainian soldiers.

Videos posted by pro-Russian social media channels over the last month appear to show Lancet drones damaging or destroying Ukraine's valuable Western-donated equipment, such as a Leopard 2 tank and a Caesar self-propelled howitzer.

Ukrainian servicemen from four different artillery crews named Lancets as one of the main threats they faced on the battlefield in conversations with Reuters.

Several soldiers said the frequency of its use had increased in recent months.

"Earlier, in spring, they were not using Lancets as often as they are now," 35-year-old artillery gunner Bohdan, who gave his call sign as Doc, told Reuters near Avdiivka on the Donetsk region frontlines.

Russia's defense ministry has been encouraging an increase of production of the Lancet as a cheap way to hit high-value Western equipment given to Ukraine for its counteroffensive, said Samuel Bendett, Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Bendett said that, according to publicly available Russian sources, a Lancet drone costs approximately 3 million roubles (around $35,000).

In comparison, analysts estimate a single S-300 missile used by Russia to cost at least several hundred thousand dollars. A Leopard 2 tank is worth several million dollars.

Because the Lancet is a single-use device that destroys itself on impact, Bendett said it can only be viable if the cost is kept down to the tens of thousands of dollars per drone.

Ukraine has also developed strong capabilities in drones - also known as UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) - as a cost-effective way to hit Russian targets.

Assault drones can send payloads to hit their target or serve as single-use "loitering munitions" - where they are strapped with explosives and ram the target themselves.

Bendett said there was unhappiness among pro-war Russian commentators about the large amount of Ukrainian videos showing successful UAV strikes, and that the Russian defense sector now wanted to create a competing narrative.

Russia appears to be copying some of Ukraine's earlier tactics, such as luring high-value targets forward into more exposed positions before hitting them with loitering munitions, Bendett said.

Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine's defense minister, acknowledged that Russia's increasing use of Lancets created difficulties.

"Every day we shoot down at least one or two of these Lancets ... but it's not a 100% interception rate unfortunately," he said.

Sak said the Lancet carried a relatively small explosive payload, ranging from 1.5-5 kg.

However, despite being less powerful than an artillery shell or most rockets, the Lancet appears to be able to inflict significant damage.

Lancet drones are flown in real-time by a pilot.

Sak said this distinguishes it from the Iran-made Shahed-136 drone, which Russia has also used extensively to hit Ukrainian targets, because a Shahed flies to a pre-programmed destination and cannot be piloted while in the air.

The newest Lancet model, the Lancet 3, can fly up to 50 km (30 miles), Bendett said, making it better able to strike targets deep behind Ukrainian lines than any other Russian suicide drone besides the Shahed.

Its ability to loiter and then chase down its target makes it a threat to high-value equipment such as tanks, self-propelled artillery and rocket launch systems.

One of the Ukrainian vehicles most at risk is the BM-21 Grad, a large Soviet-era truck-mounted launcher that can fire a barrage of up to 40 rockets over a wide area.

Its firepower makes it a priority target for Lancet drones, and a video shared by pro-war Russian social media channels last week appeared to show a Grad being hit by a Lancet. Reuters could not independently verify the footage.

A crew member of a Grad launcher near Avdiivka, who introduced himself by his call sign Voron, recounted having a close brush with a Lancet which had been sent to attack his launcher in early May.

Having fired on a Russian target, Voron said his Grad was immediately targeted by a Russian S-300 missile, which missed by about 150 meters. However, a Lancet drone then appeared in the sky and chased the Ukrainian rocket system.

"We decided to flee ... After about 50 meters it fell just to my right. It didn't hit us, thank God," the 27-year-old said.

Drones like the Lancet, which fly low and slow, tend to confuse traditional air defense systems, which are built to intercept fast-moving targets with a larger heat signature.

Nets or metal cages can help limit the damage, said Sak, the defense ministry official, but the best defenses are radar-equipped automated anti-drone guns, as well as electronic warfare systems.

Sak said Ukraine needed many more of these systems from its allies.

Without such systems, Ukrainian soldiers are often forced to try to shoot the Lancets down with small arms.

"It's flying at 100 kilometers per hour, so shooting it down with small arms is not an easy challenge," said Sak.

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Cheap Russian drone a menace to Ukrainian troops and equipment - The Jerusalem Post

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that Pope Francis's envoy would hold talks with President Vladimir Putin's adviser in Moscow asRussia"welcomed" the Vatican's peace efforts over Ukraine.

Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi began aRussiavisit on Tuesday in the first such trip since Putin sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022.

High-ranking Catholic clerics are rarely seen in Moscow, which no Pope has ever visited.

Zuppi's trip comes several weeks after he met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv.

"We highly value the efforts and initiatives of the Vatican in looking for a peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "We welcome them."

He said Zuppi was due to hold talks with Putin's foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov.

The Vatican said the purpose of Zuppi's visit was to "encourage gestures of humanity, which can help promote a solution to the current tragic situation and find ways to achieve a just peace."

Zuppi's meeting with Zelensky in early June ended without much progress, but Kyiv said the cleric could help in bringing home Ukrainian prisoners of war and children taken toRussiaduring the offensive.

The 67-year-old Italian cardinal hails from the Sant'Egidio Catholic Community, which specializes in diplomacy and peace efforts.

Pope Francis has been criticized by both Kyiv and Moscow during the conflict.

A Russian Roman Catholic prelate, Nikolay Dubinin, told state media this week that Zuppi "hoped" to meet Patriarch Kirill, but the Russian Orthodox Church did not confirm this.

Kirill is a vehement supporter of Putin's Ukrainian offensive, which he has described in holy terms.

Zuppi was due at a mass in Moscow's main Catholic cathedral on Thursday evening.

Almost a thousand years after a schism broke apart the churches, spiritual relations between the Vatican and Moscow remain icy.

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Kremlin 'Welcomes' Vatican Peace Efforts Over Ukraine - The Moscow Times

The column of Bradley armored vehicles rumbled forward, filled with Ukrainian soldiers, bringing a new and potent American weapon to the wars southern front.

But then one hit a mine. The explosion blew off one of the vehicles bulldozer-like tracks, immobilizing it. The entire Ukrainian column reversed direction, pulling back.

Three weeks into a counteroffensive critical to Ukraines prospects against Russia, its army is encountering an array of vexing challenges that complicate its plans, even as it wields sophisticated new Western-provided weapons. Not least is a vast swath of minefields protecting Russias defensive line, forming a killing field for Ukrainian troops advancing on the open steppe of the south.

Everything is mined, everywhere, said Lt. Ashot Arutiunian, the commander of a drone unit, who watched through a drones video link as the mine exploded under the Bradley and halted the columns advance.

Over the weekend, a mutiny on Russian soil by mercenary forces raised hopes in Ukraine that its army might find the going a bit easier, even though the rebellion quickly died out.

But Ukrainians still face hurdles that differentiate this campaign from their swift push through the Kharkiv region in September and even from the more arduous offensive that recaptured Kherson in November.

The terrain in the southeast is mostly flat, open fields, in contrast to the rolling hills of the Donbas or the heavily forested north, depriving Ukraines troops of cover. The Russians have also been dug in for months in expansive trench lines, making uprooting them more difficult.

In addition, KA-52 Russian attack helicopters have been able to slip past air defenses, slowing Ukrainian movements while damaging or destroying Western-provided tanks and armored fighting vehicles.

And not only are the minefields bigger and more ubiquitous, but Russian troops have proved adept at replenishing some minefields cleared by Western-supplied equipment, a senior United States military official said.

Ukrainian forces in some locations along the front line are pausing to reassess which breaching and clearing tactics and techniques are working best, the official said.

The fierce resistance has taken a toll on Ukraines weaponry. The United States committed 113 Bradley fighting vehicles in March. At least 17 of them more than 15 percent have been damaged or destroyed in the fighting so far, the official said.

These obstacles have turned the early stages of the counteroffensive into a slow and bloody slog, limiting Ukraines forces to about four miles of territory gained in their farthest advance so far. Thats less than half the distance Ukraine needs to cross threatened by mines and relentless Russian artillery bombardment to reach Russias main defensive positions.

They dug in, they mined, they are ready, said Yevhen, a private with a paramilitary police unit who, like some other soldiers, insisted on being identified only his first name and rank. It is difficult, but there is no other option.

Despite the counteroffensives slow progress, Ukrainian officials say the main battles to breach Russian defenses are still ahead, and with the bulk of Ukraines force still kept in reserve, it is early to gauge success or failure, they contend.

Mr. Zelensky, while conceding that progress has been slower than desired, cautioned against what he portrayed as unrealistic expectations of a cinematic blitzkrieg through enemy lines.

Some people believe this is a Hollywood movie and expect results now, Mr. Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC this past week. Whats at stake is peoples lives, he said. We will advance on the battlefield the way we deem best.

In Washington, officials in the Biden administration are publicly urging patience even as they privately fret that the initial progress has been slow. One senior administration official called the results of the first couple of weeks sobering, adding, Theyre behind schedule.

The senior U.S. military official also acknowledged the slower-than-hoped-for pace of operations but added that this was not unexpected given the extensive Russian defenses, and cautioned against drawing any broad conclusions based on the initial operations.

Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential government assessments.

Ukraine is seeking to split Russian-occupied territory in the south into two zones, cutting supply lines to the Crimean Peninsula and creating a springboard for further advances. To do so, it must push south about 60 miles from the former front line, where Ukraine halted Russias advances in March 2022, to the Sea of Azov.

Russias main defenses lie a dozen or so miles behind heavily defended territory. Those are the most difficult to cross.

Ukraines strategy has been to probe, striking at multiple sites to find a weak point in defenses. Russia, which has been preparing for the attack for months, is seeking to slow Ukrainian troops with mines, artillery, attack helicopters and counterattacks before they can find a gap and send troops flowing through it into occupied territory.

Success for Ukraine now hinges on how many tanks, armored vehicles and soldiers it can preserve before reaching the primary defensive line and in a battle to break through. Over the winter, Ukraine and Western allies trained and equipped about 40,000 soldiers for the attack.

How much will they have left available at that point? Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute in Virginia, said in a telephone interview. A lot of what we see so far is inconclusive.

At two of three points of attack, south of the town of Velyka Novosilka and the city of Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine has punched forward bit by bit and reclaimed a total of eight villages. At the third, south of the town of Orikhiv, where the Bradley hit a mine, the assault has appeared to stall in the fields.

Curiously, Ukraine has advanced in the two locations where troops were provided fewer new Western weapons, and stalled where the most sophisticated new weapons American Bradleys and German Leopard 2 tanks were deployed.

Its not clear if that is because Western weaponry was intentionally deployed in areas where there were stiffer Russian defenses.

Local factors, soldiers fighting in this area said, could explain the slower progress where Western weapons were deployed. The nearest villages, useful for finding abandoned houses, basements and root cellars for cover, are farther from the front line than at other sites.

And out in the open fields, the artillery bombardments have been so intensive, said a drone pilot who flies over the area regularly, that the battlefield looks like Swiss cheese.

Even as they temper expectations, Ukrainian officials have insisted the battle is on track. General Valery Zaluzhny, the commander of Ukraines army, published a video this week showing him perusing a large map and saying the fight was going according to plan.

Out in the expanse of farm fields in southern Ukraine, soldiers fighting on the front or assisting in medical evacuations said they understood the strategy of probing attacks, and that some would succeed and others would not. But they said the Russian defenses were formidable and progress is slow.

Lieutenant Yaroslav, a medic who has been evacuating wounded from the fighting, said the wounded described harrowing battles. Given what the guys are saying, its not going as well as they show on TV, he said.

On one axis of attack, Ukraine has advanced more quickly than anticipated. Soldiers fighting south of the city of Zaporizhzhia said they had been ordered to advance with no Western heavy weaponry. After reclaiming the village of Lobkove, the soldiers found they were close enough to the next village, Piatykhatky, to hear its dogs barking. It would not be hard to slip over to reclaim it, a soldier said, and this was done last week.

At a Ukrainian gun line, the artillery officer, a lieutenant named Arseniy, rattled off the types of rounds Ukraine fires: shrapnel for infantry in the open, a detonator with a delay for burrowing into and blowing up bunkers, and shells filled with leaflets explaining how to surrender part of a Ukrainian psychological warfare operation to chip away at Russian morale.

On a recent dawn, after a rainstorm had blown over the night before, the gunners prepared a Soviet-legacy howitzer of a type nicknamed the Carnation. The barrel swiveled. Fire! a soldier yelled. The gun boomed. Leaves fluttered down from nearby trees.

A few minutes later, the artillery team was sent by an intelligence unit an intercept of Russian walkie-talkie communications. Probably two dead, a Russian commander said. The soldiers were in a buoyant mood.

Its our usual working day to destroy as much as possible, Arseniy said.

Of the counteroffensive, which he sees through the ebb and flow of orders to fire the gun, he said, I think it is going to plan, but then added, Even if things go not according to plan, that is also in our plan.

The once sleepy country roads, lined with tall green grass and wildflowers, are now clogged with ambulances leaving the front, their lights flashing. Tracked vehicles rumble along, and pickup trucks spray painted with makeshift camouflage, the main transport for soldiers, bounce over the ruts.

As twilight faded into night, and swallows swooped and screeched over the fields, a Ukrainian drone surveillance unit attached to the 47th Mechanized Brigade went to work.

These first hours of night are prime time for hunting Russian tanks with infrared cameras, as the bulky metal armor, warmed in the sun through the day, all but glows in the dark.

Sunset is our golden time, said the commander, Lt. Arutiunian. The soldiers spot tanks, then call in coordinates to an artillery team.

We are testing their defenses, said Lt. Arutiunian. I would not call it a full-scale attack yet, he said. We are probing.

Andrew E. Kramer reported from Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

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Why Ukraines Counteroffensive Is Off to a Slow, Bloody Start - The New York Times

The leader of the Kremlins shadowy private army, the Wagner Group, rebelled against top military officials over the weekend after a Russian rocket attack killed dozens of his soldiers.

In a dramatic show of force against his own government, Yevgeny Prigozhin led his soldiers toward Moscow on a march for justice to remove what he labeled as Russias incompetent and corrupt senior military leadership.

Russian President Vladimir Putin criticized Prigozhins armed mutiny, accusing him of treason. Hours later Prigozhin, just 125 miles from the capital, announced he was going to turn around. Russian blood will be spilled on one side, we are turning our convoy around and going back to our base camps, according to the plan, he declared in an apparent deal to end the insurrection.

Here are the latest developments.

British security forces told the Telegraph on Monday that Russian intelligence services had threatened harm to the families of Wagner leaders who were participating in the mutiny. This new information could be a potential explanation as to why Prigozhin called off the march to Moscow.

Insights from British intelligence also claim that Putin is now looking to absorb Wagner soldiers into the countrys military and dismiss all top Wagner commanders. The report cited a British intelligence assessment that about 8,500 Wagner fighters were involved in the mutiny, contradicting public reports that the number was closer to 25,000.

Russias defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, was seen for the first time since the weekend insurrection. The appearance is notable, as a key plank of Prigozhins uprising was the removal of Shoigu, the Associated Press reported.

The video, published to the Telegram social media platform, shows the military chief inspecting soldiers in Ukraine clearly meant to suggest that Russia had moved past the Wagner conflict.

Story continues

Following Shoigus public appearance, Prigozhin released a statement where he defended his 24-hour-long uprising. In the 11-minute long audio clip, the Wagner chief claimed the march was due to an injustice that was carried out - referring to Friday's attack on a Wagner camp killing an estimated 30 soldiers.

According to Reuters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Prigozhin is to move to Belarus after its president, Alexander Lukashenko, brokered a deal between Putin and the mercenary chief. Lukashenko had offered to mediate the deal, with Putins approval, as he has known Prigozhin personally for two decades.

Peskov added that Prigozhin would receive amnesty despite orchestrating the armed mutiny and that the soldiers who had taken part would also not face any criminal action.

A well-known Chinese journalist stated that Russia would not be able to return to what it was before the armed mutiny, the Telegraph reported.

Hu Xijin, the former editor in chief of the Chinese-government-affiliated Global Times, had been commentating on Prigozhins insurrection and Russias political situation. In the now-deleted tweet, Hu wrote: [Prigozhins] armed rebellion has made the Russian political situation cross the tipping point. Regardless of his outcome, Russia cannot return to the country it was before the rebellion anymore.

Hus comments were a stark contrast to the Chinese governments neutral stance on Russian politics. In what appeared to be a backtrack, Hu later posted: Prigozhin quickly stopped and the rebellion was stopped without bloodshed, which obviously narrowed the impact on Putins authority, although not to zero.

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Russia-Ukraine war latest: Kremlin reportedly threatened Wagner families as soldiers marched to Moscow - Yahoo News

The Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February last year has led to the biggest war in Europe in many generations. Even before the Wagner Group the 50,000-strong paramilitary force that had been fighting alongside Russian soldiers seized control of military sites in the southwestern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don last week, with the apparent aim of toppling Moscows military command, the incursion into Ukraine looked like a major failure for its instigator, President Vladimir Putin. Within a month of the wars onset, it had already become a [foul]-up of historic proportions, as one veteran Ukraine correspondent recently put it. So it is no wonder that this year brings several new books aiming to summarize the conflict and to mull how it might end.

In considering where the war is going, it is useful to begin by remembering how wrong many Russian observers have been about its course so far. Back when it started, the Russian newspaper Izvestia promised a Ukrainian defeat within five days of the initial attack. Five weeks after the invasion, Putins spokesman claimed that Ukraines military was largely destroyed.

But a war intended to undercut Ukraines leaders and NATO has instead strengthened both. Bulgaria, Romania and the three Baltic states have all voiced strong opposition to Putins acts. Less noticed in the West is how Russias war has also alienated former Soviet nations such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

To be fair, many non-Russian analysts were also wide of the mark. Just before the war, the Scottish American historian Niall Ferguson wrote that Ukraine would receive no significant military support from the West and speculated on the location of Putins victory parade. When the invasion began, the German finance minister, who is also an officer in the German air force reserves, reportedly told the Ukrainian ambassador that the war would be over in a matter of hours. The ambassador wept.

So who seems to have it right now?

The most thought-provoking of the new crop of books about the war in Ukraine is Alexander Etkinds quick and incisive RUSSIA AGAINST MODERNITY (Polity, 166 pp., paperback, $19.95). The book is set in the future and cast as a postwar analysis of why Russia was defeated in Ukraine. Etkind, a professor at the Central European University in Vienna, builds his speculations off the flaws of the society Putin built an antidemocratic, parasitic petrostate that historically relied on fossil fuels like oil and gas for two-thirds of its exports. Their extraction is mainly controlled in Russia by politicians and former security men who value political loyalty far more than managerial competence.

Etkind depicts Putins invasion as a war between generations, noting that Ukraines cabinet is mostly made up of people under the age of 50, while most of Russias cabinet members are older. He suggests that the officials who run Putins Russia know they cannot compete in a post-petroleum world, and so they are threatened by all aspects of modernity, from democracy to climate change to tolerance for homosexuality. Etkind portrays Russias leaders as living fossils living on fossil fuels. He has a point: When was the last time anyone bought a computer chip made in Russia?

The best look at the actual fighting is probably OVERREACH: The Inside Story of Putins War Against Ukraine (Mudlark, 414 pp., paperback, $21.99), by the journalist Owen Matthews. He offers a straightforward, readable overview of the different levels of the conflict, from the battlefront to the stances of the warring governments to the impact on civilians.

Matthews, a Russia correspondent for The Spectator, previously worked in Russia both for The Moscow Times and for Newsweek. His pessimistic discussion of why most Russians supported Putins war, at least until recently, is sobering. The Russian militarys reliance on the mercenaries who made up the Wagner Group was key. Wagner found recruits among thieves and murderers, poor kids from distant provinces and troops from remote ethnic-minority republics, Matthews writes. Keeping casualties to an army of expendables reduced the chances of a popular backlash.

Another journalistic effort, not as good as Matthewss, is Christopher Millers THE WAR CAME TO US: Life and Death in Ukraine (Bloomsbury, 374 pp., $28). Miller, the Ukraine correspondent for The Financial Times, has spent more than a decade reporting from the country. This book felt to me like a reporters notebook cleaner in which the author simply dumps old field notes into a new manuscript. As with many other volumes on the war, Miller doesnt get to the full-scale Russian invasion until more than halfway through his book but once he does, he is particularly good at recounting the chaotic, precarious early days of the war. Some Ukrainian security officials were collaborating with the Russians, Miller reports, and Russian sleeper cells already in Kyiv were activated to carry out assassination and sabotage missions.

THE RUSSO-UKRAINIAN WAR: The Return of History (Norton, 376 pp., $30), by the Ukrainian historian Serhii Plokhy, is somewhat drier, although he is probably right when he notes that one effect of the invasion is already clear: The Ukrainian nation will emerge from this war more united and certain of its identity than at any other point in its modern history.

Samuel Ramanis book PUTINS WAR ON UKRAINE: Russias Campaign for Global Counter-Revolution (Oxford University, 603 pp., $29.95) is a trudge to read, but its encyclopedic descriptions can yield interesting details and some solid tactical analysis. Interestingly, he notes that Putins reliance on the Wagner Group allowed him to create an alternative power vertical that consolidated his personal grip on security policy and shielded Putin from a palace coup when the war did not proceed according to plan.

Ramani, a specialist at Oxford in politics and international relations, argues that the least effective Russian allies in the fighting have been Chechen units. The Chechens weakness, he says, is that they are accustomed to suppressing civilians, not fighting armed opponents on a battlefield. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has survived more than a dozen assassination attempts. Fortunately for him, many of those were reportedly launched by Chechen special forces units assigned the murderous task by Putin, while others were carried out by the Wagner Group.

The question hanging over everything is whether Russia ultimately will lose the war. The official line in Putins government is that Russia will prevail because of objective historical processes, as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov puts it. Ramanis conclusion is almost as murky: Russia cannot win and cannot afford to lose the war.

Matthews, a bit more clearly, argues that the war can end only in a negotiated settlement, which Putin will paint as a victory. He also presumes that even if Putin subsequently falls from power, he will probably be replaced by a hard-right ultranationalist, suggesting that a damaged Putin is better than a toppled Putin.

Plokhy, despite his prediction of Ukrainian national unity, argues that Ukraine will lose some portion of its territory to a Sino-Russian sphere of influence, with the dividing line representing a 21st-century Iron Curtain.

Etkind, who is the most persuasive of the bunch, foresees a far different outcome: Not only will Putin lose, but, as a result, the Russian Federation will fall apart, suggesting that Chechnya and other regions will loosen ties with Moscow or become altogether independent. I suspect he is right. In 2005, Putin famously lamented the collapse of the Soviet Union as the great geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. It would be ironic if his war completes the Soviet dissolution.

But the war in Ukraine has already fooled many observers and participants, so we should be careful about placing too much faith in any prediction.

Thomas E. Ricks, the Book Reviews military history columnist, is the author of eight books, most recently Waging a Good War: A Military History of the Civil Rights Movement, 1954-1968.

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New Books on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine - The New York Times