Monthly Archives: June 2023

Throughout the 36-hour armed rebellion that shook Russia this weekend, two officials key to waging President Vladimir V. Putins war in Ukraine were glaringly absent: Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu and Gen. Valery V. Gerasimov, the Kremlins top military commander.

But now, as Mr. Putin seeks to project an image of restored stability and control, he has been putting his defense minister on display, even if Mr. Shoigu has not addressed the public or even been heard speaking.

A soundless video of Mr. Shoigu visiting military positions was released on Monday morning in what some Kremlin watchers interpreted as a tacit sign of support for him. Some military bloggers were quick to point out that the video appeared to have been shot on Friday, before the armed rebellion led by Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group.

Mr. Shoigu was also present on Monday as Mr. Putin convened a meeting of his top security chiefs. Footage played on state television showed him sitting around a table with his head bowed and his hands folded.

On Tuesday, as Mr. Putin praised his security forces in a grandly choreographed speech, Mr. Shoigu was again present, wearing his military uniform. Later, Mr. Shoigu held a meeting with his Cuban counterpart at the National Defense Control Center of Russia.

In conditions when the United States has been carrying out an illegal and illegitimate trade and economic blockade of Cuba for many decades, we are ready to help the Island of Freedom, lend a shoulder to our Cuban friends, Mr. Shoigu said, according to the Russian military channel Zvezda TV.

Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov are considered trusted allies of Mr. Putin, but in the past months they have largely stayed out of public view and have made only highly choreographed appearances, while Mr. Prigozhin published videos of himself on the front line amid corpses, with explosions booming in the distance.

Mr. Prigozhin has repeatedly and publicly criticized both men and complained that they have caused some of the Russian militarys problems. Other prominent Russian leaders have also criticized Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov.

In October, after Russias retreat from the Ukrainian city of Lyman, Ramzan Kadyrov, the strongman leader of the southern Russian republic of Chechnya who controls his own paramilitary force wrote on the Telegram messaging app that Russias top military brass had covered for an incompetent general who should now be sent to the front to wash his shame off with blood.

Andrei Guryulov, a hard-line member of Russias Parliament from the ruling United Russia party, disparaged the military leadership around the same time.

The whole problem is not on the ground, but on the Frunzenskaya embankment, where they still do not understand, and do not take ownership of the situation, he said, referring to the location of the Defense Ministry. Until something completely different appears in the General Staff, nothing will change.

Even the staunch Putin ally Aleksandr Dugin, whose daughter was killed last autumn by a car bomb, called Mr. Putin and President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus heroes, but without naming them seemed to cast blame on supporters of Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov for the Wagner rebellion.

Those who made this situation possible, who committed it, and who could not prevent it, and when it all began, were unable to adequately respond, must be said goodbye to abruptly, Mr. Dugin wrote on Telegram on Monday.

Mr. Shoigu, who was a very popular minister of emergency situations before becoming defense minister in 2012, has had a long and friendly relationship with Mr. Putin. Long before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the two were regularly photographed hunting, fishing and picking mushrooms. Ahead of Mr. Putins birthday in 2019, they vacationed together in the vast Russian taiga, taking long hikes. But he has never served in the military, which has been a cause of resentment among his critics.

General Gerasimov is seen as a consummate military man, though some analysts suggested at the time of his appointment that the Kremlin was looking to streamline military decision-making and had appointed him in the hopes of getting a leader willing to carry out decisions coming directly from the top. He has not spoken in public since the revolt.

Mr. Putin may have kept both men in charge as part of his decades-long efforts to place the sprawling Russian military more under his control.

Its a Russian paradox, said Andrei Soldatov, an expert on the Russian security services.

Mr. Putin needs someone quite weak and compromised to represent the military politically, he added, because what he remembers about the recent rise of history in the last 30 years is that even the most disastrous of wars produce popular generals.

Oleg Matsnev contributed reporting.

The rest is here:

Russia-Ukraine War: Putin, Projecting Control, Tries to Contain Fallout From Mutiny - The New York Times

Three weeks in, Ukraine has made little progress toward one of its main lines of attack in southern Ukraine. Russia has a crucial ally: the unforgiving terrain of the south.

Territory reclaimed by

Ukraine since June 4

Wide-open fields leave little room for cover for Ukrainian troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

1 mile from

the front line

Fields surrounded

by tree lines

Trees line the edges of those fields, concealing Russian forces and shielding them from aerial observation.

5 miles from

the front line

Beyond natural obstacles, miles of Russian defenses trenches, tank traps and mines only allow Ukraines troops to make incremental progress at best.

10 miles from

the front line

If Ukraine can get 15 miles from the front line, to the city of Tokmak, urban warfare will pose its own challenges. Tall buildings and narrow sidestreets ensure combat will be at close quarters, and deadly.

Anti-tank trap

surrounding the city

15 miles from

the front line

Tall buildings

provide cover

20 miles from

the front line

Few expected Ukraines counteroffensive to go quickly, but other lines of attack face similar obstacles. Turning the tide will require mastering the terrain.

Three weeks in, Ukraine has made little progress toward one of its main lines of attack in southern Ukraine. Russia has a crucial ally: the unforgiving terrain of the south.

Territory reclaimed by

Ukraine since June 4

Wide-open fields leave little room for cover for Ukrainian troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

1 mile from

the front line

Fields surrounded

by tree lines

Trees line the edges of those fields, concealing Russian forces and shielding them from aerial observation.

5 miles from

the front line

Beyond natural obstacles, miles of Russian defenses trenches, tank traps and mines only allow Ukraines troops to make incremental progress, at best.

10 miles from

the front line

If Ukraine can get 15 miles from the front line, to the city of Tokmak, urban warfare will pose its own challenges. Tall buildings and narrow sidestreets ensure combat will be at close quarters, and deadly.

Anti-tank trap

surrounding the city

15 miles from

the front line

Tall buildings

provide cover

20 miles from

the front line

Few expected Ukraines counteroffensive to go quickly, but other lines of attack face similar obstacles. Turning the tide will require mastering the terrain.

Three weeks in, Ukraine has made little progress toward one of its main lines of attack in southern Ukraine. Russia has a crucial ally: the unforgiving terrain of the south.

Territory reclaimed by

Ukraine since June 4

1 mile from

the front line

Wide-open fields leave little room for cover for Ukrainian troops, tanks and armored vehicles.

Fields surrounded

by tree lines

Trees line the edges of those fields, concealing Russian forces and shielding them from aerial observation.

5 miles from

the front line

Beyond natural obstacles, miles of Russian defenses trenches, tank traps and mines only allow Ukraines troops to make incremental progress, at best.

10 miles from

the front line

Anti-tank trap

surrounding the city

If Ukraine can get 15 miles from the front line, to the city of Tokmak, urban warfare will pose its own challenges. Tall buildings and narrow sidestreets ensure combat will be at close quarters, and deadly.

15 miles from

the front line

Tall buildings

provide cover

20 miles from

the front line

Few expected Ukraines counteroffensive to go quickly, but other lines of attack face similar obstacles. Turning the tide will require mastering the terrain.

The southern offensive could determine the fate of the war, many military analysts believe. Much of Ukraine is rolling steppe and forests, but the south is especially flat, making it more dangerous for advancing troops.

Ukrainian officials have said the counteroffensive is going as planned, even though its clear, through open source accounts, that Ukrainian vehicles including recently supplied western tanks and armored personnel carriers are being damaged and destroyed. Kyivs formations have managed to take several small villages, but Ukrainian casualties are mounting.

The slow pace is most likely the result of several factors. Russian troops have shown competency fighting defensively, and Moscows formations have improved their tactics since earlier in the war.

The short-lived rebellion by the Wagner group on Saturday hasnt had an immediate effect on the front line in southern Ukraine. No Russian soldiers left their positions to come to Russias defense. But the Ukrainian military may be able to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale to try to make some gains, according to analysts.

The terrain is a formidable obstacle in and of itself. Here is how the physical features of southern Ukraine combine to give Russian defenders an advantage.

Russians mine the roads

leading to settlements

to slow the advance

of vehicles and tanks.

De-mining vehicles

and explosives are often

used to clear land mines.

Once in the open field,

the tanks and vehicles

are not only slower, but

also more vulnerable

to attacks.

Russians mine the roads

leading to settlements

to slow the advance

of vehicles and tanks.

De-mining vehicles

and explosives are often

used to clear land mines.

Once in the open field,

the tanks and vehicles

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The Miles of Obstacles Slowing Ukraines Counteroffensive - The New York Times

To some Ukrainian forces, soldiers from theWagner Group were the best-equipped fighters they had seen since Russia invaded last year. To others, it was their training that distinguished them: Ukrainian soldiers recalledbattlefield stories of aggressive tactics or a sniper downinga drone with a single shot.

But after the short-lived mutiny led by thehead of the group, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, it is not clear whether Wagner will still be a fighting force on the battlefield with its fate now in question.

For now, the uncertain status of Wagner is bound to be a relief for Ukrainian soldiers. Though the front lines in Ukraine are likely toremain unchanged in the short term, depending on how events unfold in Russia, the Ukrainian military may be able to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale to try to make some gains, according to independent analysts and American officials.

Still, it is too soon to determine the long-term implications of the feud between Mr. Prigozhin and the Russian military establishment, American officials said. In Bakhmut, Wagner played an outsize role in the campaign to take the eastern city, Moscows one major battlefield victory this year, and solidified an uneasy alliance with the Russian military only to see the partnership break once the city was captured.

The previous relationship between Wagner and the Russian government is likely over, said Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute. Even had this not happened, it was unclear if Wagner would have played the same role in this war as it had in the battle for Bakhmut.

The intense fighting in Bakhmut led to huge numbers of Russians being injured or killed in the first months of this year, American officials said. In taking the city this spring, Wagner forces showed they had learned hard lessons from fighting over the last year, improving their tactics and making it far harder for Ukraine to mount a strong defense.

Wagners contract fighters outpaced Ukrainian defenders by usingsavvy maneuvers on the ground and sending wave after wave of prisoner conscripts into the fight.

But Bakhmut was a Pyrrhic victory for Mr. Prigozhin.

The city was not a prize many in the Russian military thought was particularly important. Its strategic value was further diminished when Ukraines military seized high ground on Bakhmuts periphery, preventing Russia from using the city as a staging ground for attacks that could have led Moscowto take Kramatorsk, the next city it sought to expand its control of eastern Ukraine.

Whats more, the events that unfolded during and after Bakhmuts capture seem to have precipitated the rupture between Mr. Prigozhin and Russias DefenseMinistry.

Mr. Prigozhins forces were able to take the city center onlyafter Russias president, Vladimir V. Putin,ordered the regular army to fortify Wagners troops to guard their flanks from attacks by the Ukrainians.

That influx of Russian troops was key to Wagners victory and reinforced the importance of the army. But Mr. Prigozhin may have learned a different lesson from the support he earned from Mr. Putin.

After seizing Bakhmut, the Russian Defense Ministry took steps to integrate Wagner into the broader military, whichwould have reduced Mr. Prigozhins power. When Russia forced all volunteers fighting in Ukraine to sign contracts with the ministry, it meant that Mr. Prigozhin would have had to put his forces under the control of the military, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

This is one of the reasons Prigozhin went mad, Ms. Stanovaya said, because he realized now he is out of Ukraine.

Mr. Prigozhin became increasingly strident in his criticism of Russian military units after that, and U.S., British and Ukrainian intelligence began developing information that he might make an offensive move with his troops to force a change in the Defense Ministry. That intelligence was proved right on Friday, as Wagner troops moved to take control of a southern Russian city.

Just as quickly, the mutiny was over the next day, ending with the announcement that Mr. Prigozhin would halt his march on Moscow and accept exile to Belarus.

The Kremlin announced that Wagner troops who did not participate in the revolt would be allowed to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry. Those that had joined the convoy would not be prosecuted. The statement suggested that Wagner in its current form would no longer exist.

Thoughpart of Mr. Prigozhins mercenary cadre is likelyto continue under Russian Army control, how many Wagner soldiers would be willing to fight under the ministrys umbrellais an open question.

Ukraine will surely look to take advantage of the chaos caused by Mr. Prigozhin, but there did not seem to be any immediate defensive gaps to exploit, according to American officials and independent analysts.

And Mr. Prigozhins march, at least according to a preliminary analysis, did not cause any Russian units on Friday or Saturday to leave their positions in southern or eastern Ukraine to come to Moscowsdefense, American officials said. While the drama was unfolding, there was no letup in the war: Russian forces fired more than 50 missiles across Ukraine before dawn on Saturday.

Wagner has been an incredibly important tool of Russian foreign policy, particularly in Mali, the Central African Republic, Syria and other countries. While the group willmost likely be transformed under the Defense Ministrys control, it is not certain that the Kremlin will let it fade away as an effective fighting force.

And, Mr. Prigozhin may also have some next move yet to play out.

Read more here:

With Wagner's Future in Doubt, Ukraine Could Capitalize on Chaos - The New York Times

President Biden this week mistakenly referred to Ukraine as Iraq on two occasions, mixing up the names of recent areas of conflict.

Biden was asked Wednesday to what extent Russian President Vladimir Putin has been weakened by the aborted rebellion in Russia. In his response, he switched out Ukraine for the war that started with a U.S.-led coalition invasion into Iraq and ended in 2011.

“It’s hard to tell, but he is clearly losing the war in Iraq, he’s losing the war at home and he has become a bit of a pariah around the world,” the president said at the White House.

“It’s not just NATO, it’s not just the European Union, it’s Japan,” he added.

The White House did not respond to a request for comments on the word swap.

The president is known to make gaffes in off-the-cuff remarks, including in response to questions from reporters. He also has in the past slipped up on words before correcting himself. 

Biden, 80, made the same mistake during a campaign reception in Maryland on Tuesday night, referring to Ukraine as Iraq. 

“If anybody told you — and my staff wasn’t so sure, either — that we’d be able to bring all of Europe together in the onslaught on Iraq and get NATO to be completely united, I think they would have told you it’s not likely. The one thing Putin counted on was being able to split NATO,” Biden said.

He often speaks much more candidly at such events and tends to make news with his unscripted remarks, such as when he called Chinese President Xi Jinping a dictator last week. 

On Tuesday night in Maryland, Biden also briefly flubbed the homeland of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who visited the White House last week.

“You probably saw my new best friend, the prime minister of a little country that’s now the largest in the world, China — I mean, excuse me, India,” he said.

The president’s comments on Putin come after the mercenary Wagner Group and its founder Yevgeny Prigozhi led a rebellion over the weekend that ended through a negotiated deal between Prigozhi and Putin. The Wagner chief has since fled to Belarus.

Putin has publicly been outraged over the rebellion and it’s led to questions over what the negotiated deal means for the future of the war in Russia. 

Updated at 11:59 a.m.

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Biden refers to Ukraine as Iraq when asked about Putin - The Hill

Recast with Kremlin response.

The Kremlin said Wednesday that Russian forces only hit military-linked targets in Ukraine, after a strike on a restaurant in the eastern city of Kramatorsk killed at least 10 people.

The comments come a day after the Ria Pizza restaurant popular with soldiers, journalists and aid workers was destroyed in the city, one of the largest still under Ukrainian control in the east.

"Strikes are only carried out on objects that are in one way or another linked to military infrastructure," said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

"TheRussian Federationdoes not carry out strikes on civilian infrastructure," he added.

Kyiv's National Police said the strike, which came in the evening as the eatery was busy with guests, had also wounded 61 people.

The Ukrainian emergency services said three children were among the dead.

They added that a baby born in 2022 was among those wounded and warned that some people were still under the rubble.

An AFP journalist on the scene shortly after the strike saw the restaurant in ruins surrounded by debris with rescuers rushing to clear the rubble and search for bodies.

Russiahas denied striking civilian infrastructure throughout its 16-month-long Ukraine campaign.

Read more:

Kremlin Says Only Hits 'Military' Targets After Ukraine Restaurant Strike - The Moscow Times

The crackle of the radio spurs the doctors to action. They don surgical gloves and pick up scissors, ready to cut through bloodied uniforms. Then it comes, the distinctive rumble of the armoured vehicles engines. The walking-wounded stumble out first, then paramedics carry out those in need of stretchers. Finally, there are the body bags, which will be taken to a mortuary. Military commanders bark orders at the drivers to hide their vehicles before theyre targeted by the Russians.

Military commanders bark orders at the drivers to hide their vehicles before theyre targeted by the Russians

Inside the infirmary, the mood is calm. The medics are focused on the job in hand, and the wounded soldiers rarely scream; theyve often already waited for hours to be collected from the front. Instead they let out exhausted moans or, worse, they wheeze and rattle through laboured breaths. Its a terrible sound. Once the painkillers kick in, soldiers missing chunks of their body begin to talk. One guy who had stepped on a mine asked me for a selfie; another, who had just lost his arm and was about to have his leg removed, sat up, looked me in the eye, and told me to take his picture.

There is no typical day at this stabilisation unit, a small hospital based in a partially ruined building a couple of miles from Ukraines eastern front. Soldiers come here for first aid and life-saving procedures before being transported to a proper hospital farther away from the front line. Some days there are only a couple of walk-ins; during intense periods of fighting, as many as 100 wounded soldiers pass through every day. Ive been embedded with the unit since August 2022, photographing the medics as they battle to do their jobs under gruelling conditions.

One guy who had stepped on a mine asked me for a selfie; another, who had just lost his arm and was about to have his leg removed, sat up, looked me in the eye, and told me to take his picture

The infirmary itself consists of two rooms and a hallway on the ground floor of the building. Its here that the team of around ten doctors and nurses apply tourniquets, remove shrapnel and sew up wounds, or at least clean them as best as possible. They have to make difficult decisions quickly. If 15 injured soldiers come in at once, the medics assess whos in the most pain and whos in danger of bleeding out. As a piece of shrapnel was removed from his arm, one young soldier, who used to work in IT before the war, compared the unit to a pitstop in Formula One. Like so many who come through the unit, he was in surprisingly good spirits, thanks to a mixture of adrenaline, shock and pain relief.

The damp basement is where the medics eat, sleep and relax not that theres much time for any of that. Theres no hot water and few creature comforts. Most of the furniture and decor has been scavenged from bombed-out buildings. Their beds are thin mattresses on wooden crates. Someone found a set of kitschy paintings in an old office, and signed them with the names of famous artists like Dal and Van Gogh.

As a piece of shrapnel was removed from his arm, one young soldier compared the unit to a pitstop in Formula One

They try to keep the mood bright as it can get pretty dark in here. The windows are blacked out and its often too dangerous to go outside, though sometimes we risk it. Recently, one of the medics spotted a beautiful sunset and a few of us decided to go for a walk. We sat on a rooftop and watched the night draw in over the war-torn landscape. Someone took a selfie and, just for a moment, things felt normal again.

Sviatoslav, a 46-year-old colorectal surgeon, signed up at the start of the war but was told there was no need for doctors with his specialism. Three months ago, he was finally called up. I knew it would happen sooner or later and I was psychologically ready, said Sviatoslav, who until he got his papers worked in a private hospital in central Ukraine.

He attended lectures in emergency medicine at a military hospital before being sent to the stabilisation unit. Its taken him several weeks to acclimatise to his new surroundings. In a hospital, there are procedures, and you can send patients for various consultations. Here you have just a few minutes to make a decision and youre often [making] it yourself.

Sviatoslav often wears a bulletproof vest, even during operations. You cant dry your clothes and shoes properly. You are constantly cold and damp, he said. The sun, light and wind you only see through the crack in the door that you can only have it open for a few minutes its scary.

The damp basement is where the medics eat, sleep and relax not that theres much time for any of that

What bothers him most is the lack of hygiene. Sometimes, said Sviatoslav, theres no time to wash his hands before an operation, or to find a pair of scrubs. Personal hygiene is also hard to maintain. He cant remember the last time he had a bath and has had only three cold showers since he got here. Instead, he uses wet wipes to clean himself. I understand how [hospitals] should be clean and in these conditions, theres none of that. Its hard for me.

Pasha, 33, used to work as a medic in trauma units in Kyiv. He was on holiday abroad when Russia invaded and rushed back to sign up. I wanted to make myself useful to our armed forces, he said. Along with a driver, Pasha helps evacuate injured soldiers from the front line to the stabilisation unit. My job is very similar to that of a normal ambulance driver; its just that it happens under constant shelling.

My job is very similar to that of a normal ambulance driver; its just that it happens under constant shelling

His shifts can last up to 26 hours and he often has to work through the night. Hes had two weeks off since March 2022, the standard amount of leave for army personnel. He said the doctors at the stabilisation point have become like a second family to him, drawing emotional support from each other. Like all families, they bond through humour: You wouldnt like the jokes we tell, medics jokes are pretty dark.

Last autumn, on their way to pick up some soldiers, they found the wreckage of a helicopter crash. They extracted the three pilots and treated them on the side of the road, before taking them to the unit. Six months later one of the pilots texted him to say thank you. I dont expect thank-yous for my work, but it was really nice to get that message, said Pasha.

Christopher Occhicone is a photojournalist working in Ukraine. He was speaking to Arjun Dodhia. Isobel Koshiw is a freelance journalist based in Kyiv

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Dark, damp and deathly: inside a hospital on Ukraine's front line - The Economist

I would hope what [the Wagner rebellion] does is reinforce to members of Congress, particularly some of my Republican colleagues, who were talking about not continuing funding Ukraine, that this is why it is important to make sure that we are funding Ukraine to push forward, House Foreign Affairs Committee ranking member Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) said on MSNBC on Monday.

Increasing Ukraine aid is far from a given. Bipartisan support for further arming Kyiv runs deep in Congress, but theres a vocal swath of conservatives, and some progressives, that oppose more U.S. aid. Many top leaders also concede that new funding will hinge on whether Ukraines counteroffensive makes progress in pushing back Russian forces.

The U.S. still has authorization to pull billions of dollars worth of equipment from American stocks and send it to Ukraine. Yet the White House still has to request authority when the current one runs out. It hasnt done so yet, and congressional leaders are divided over the prospect of approving more. The Pentagon, meanwhile, is taking a wait-and-see approach to whatever the next request might be.

American military aid for Ukraine comes in two forms: direct drawdowns from existing stocks under the Presidential Drawdown Authority, and the longer-term Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which uses U.S. funds to sign contracts for weapons and equipment in the months and years to come.

If any of that funding is to be increased, it wont come from the spending blueprint already before Congress.

Theres no additional money in the base budget, said one senior Defense Department official, who was granted anonymity to talk about matters still under discussion. Weve got either the presidents drawdown authority or [Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative] authority as the two primary means to support Ukraine, but for future budgets, its probably too early to tell where things will end up relative to additional replenishment numbers.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, just after securing the debt limit and spending caps deal this month, said he had no plans to take up any supplemental spending beyond the regular fiscal 2024 budget under consideration. Additional spending, therefore, would mean running afoul under the caps of the debt deal, and risks upsetting lawmakers on the Republican right flank who wanted to see deeper spending cuts and oppose new aid for Kyiv.

That puts him at odds with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who on Tuesday reupped his call to rush more weapons to the frontline in the wake of the rebellion. The GOP leader told reporters in Kentucky that its hard to imagine the uprising is bad news for Ukraine.

If you look around the whole world right now, the single most important mission of the free world should be the defeat of the Russians in Ukraine, McConnell said.

I know there are some voices of opposition in the United States, but heres a way to look at it: the amount of money weve spent, sent to Ukraine is about .02 percent of our gross national product, and most of it is spent in this country, McConnell said. So we have a country only asking for help thats doing the fighting.

Another Republican supporter of Ukraine aid, Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), said on Meet the Press on Sunday that its been money well spent. The aid, which equates to 5 percent of the U.S. military budget, has helped take out half of Russias military, he said.

Our actions have helped Ukraine prevail to the extent that they are right now. Theyre still in a war, Russia controls 10 percent of their country, but without our aid, without our support, I think Ukraine would have fallen by now, said Bacon, a member of the House Armed Services Committee.

Too many Republicans have tried to stay under the radar on this, and we do best when we stand for whats right and whats truthful, Bacon said.

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), a McCarthy ally and member of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, said the turmoil in Russia is a sign Washington must, remain fully committed to assisting our friends in Ukraine with the tools they need to defeat the Russian regime.

The events that occurred over the weekend in Russia show what many of us already knew: Vladimir Putin is a weak leader who launched an unprovoked war on a sovereign nation, Fitzpatrick said in a statement. As the majority of lawmakers agree, a Ukrainian victory is also a victory for American economic and national security, and global stability.

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), on MSNBC, argued that because McCarthy is hemmed in by his right flank, the situation could deny Ukraine what it needs in its counteroffensive.

Thats why I think unity right now is so important. If we can do all we can right now to help Ukraine make this push, as Russia is on its heels, this could really change the course of the conflict and get Russia finally out of Ukraine, Swalwell said,

This is a moment right now that we can increase funding, but if he sees himself as more important than what happens on the battlefield in Ukraine, theyre going to not be able to meet this opportunity, Swalwell said of McCarthy.

Despite the bipartisan push, Congress has its share of doubters. In the wake of DODs admission last week that it overestimated the value of the weapons it has sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the past two years, one Republican lawmaker involved in budget and appropriations discussions with McCarthy said theres not yet a solid case for a new tranche of aid.

First, the implications of developments in Ukraine and Russia are still playing out, said the lawmaker, who was granted anonymity to discuss closed-door conversations among Republicans. Second, its pretty clear DOD doesnt have a clue how much money they have or need for Ukraine. They have some work to do there. Last, our position that we would oppose anything that attempts to circumvent the debt ceiling limit of $886 billion stands.

Congressional Ukraine Caucus Co-Chair Mike Quigley (D-Ill.) was confident Ukraine already had the support in Congress it needs to win more aid and wouldnt put stock in the events in Russia swaying his colleagues.

This just keeps it positive, because I still think the majority is with us majorities in the House and Senate and majorities of Democrats and Republicans, Quigley said in an interview, adding about recent events: It just shows [Putins] weakness and incompetence in prosecuting this war.

As the Wagner mutiny unfolded, top House Armed Services Committee Democrat Adam Smith said the impact on Russias invasion of Ukraine would be difficult to predict. Still, divisions in Russia could offer a prime opportunity for Ukraines counteroffensive to gain steam, he said.

Three defense industry lobbyists told POLITICO they think the Wagner rebellion will help defense hawks argue for a supplemental spending request for the Pentagon and Ukraine.

But the likelihood of passing a supplemental before late fall is slim because of the limited time on Congresss calendar over the next two months, said the lobbyists, who were granted anonymity to candidly discuss the state of play.

It will give a boost to the efforts on a supplemental because of the heightened instability its creating. The instability in Russia, however it plays out, makes the world more dangerous across the board, one of the lobbyists said.

Congress is on recess for July 4 and will also be in August, which does not leave time for a supplemental before the end of the fiscal year. Lawmakers are more focused on passing appropriations bills, the lobbyists said.

Until then, funding for Ukraine is limited within the base budget. Defense policy and spending legislation advanced by the House and Senate Armed Services Committees and the House Appropriations Committee last week green lights $300 million for the Pentagon to arm Ukraine, even with Bidens budget request.

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Russia mutiny revives stagnant talk of increasing Ukraine aid in Congress - POLITICO

The events playing out in Russia feel like the trailer for the next James Bond movie: Vladimir Putins ex-chef/ex-cyberhacker/recent mercenary army leader, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, goes rogue.

Prigozhin, a character straight out of Dr. No, leads a convoy of ex-convicts and soldiers of fortune on a madcap dash to seize the Russian capital, shooting down a few Russian military helicopters along the way. They meet so little resistance that the internet is full of pictures of his mercenaries waiting patiently in line to buy coffee: Hey, could you put a lid on that? I dont want it to spill on my tank!

But then, just as suddenly, as Prigozhins men got within 120 miles of Moscow, he apparently caught wind that his convoy on the open highway would be sitting ducks to a determined air attack. So Prigozhin opted for a plea bargain, arranged by the president of Belarus, and called off his revolution sorry, didnt mean it, I was just trying to point out some problems with the Russian Army and everyone called it a day.

Its still not clear if the stone-hearted Putin conveyed any direct threat to his old pal Prigozhin, but as Putins former bag man, Prigozhin clearly wasnt taking any chances. With good reason. As the ever-helpful president of Belarus, where Prigozhin reportedly surfaced on Tuesday, said, the Russian president told him that he wanted to kill his traitorous mercenary commander, to squash him like a bug.

Like the sinister Ernst Stavro Blofeld, the Bond villain who leads the international criminal syndicate SPECTRE and was often seen petting his white cat while plotting mayhem, Putin is often seen at his 20-foot-long white table, with visitors usually seated at the far end, where, you suspect, a trapdoor waits, ready to swallow anyone who gets out of line.

My first reaction watching this drama unfold on CNN and then replayed over the past few days was to wonder: Was this whole thing for real? I am not a conspiracy buff, but Live and Let Die had nothing on this Mutiny on the Moskva script a script that is still playing out, as the analog Putin tries to keep pace on state-run Russian TV while the digitally savvy Prigozhin continues to run circles around him on Telegram.

To the question many readers have asked me What happens to Putin now? it is impossible to predict. I would be careful, though, about writing Putin off so fast. Remember: Blofeld appeared in six Bond movies before 007 finally eliminated him.

All one can do for the moment, I believe, is to try to calculate the different balances of power shaping this story and analyze who can do what in the coming months.

Let me start with the biggest balance of power that should never be lost sight of. President Biden, please come onstage and take a bow. It was the broad and sustained coalition Biden assembled to confront Putin in Ukraine that ripped the facade off Putins Potemkin village.

I like how Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli diplomat in the United States, described it in Haaretz this week: Biden understood from the start that Putin is the epicenter of an anti-American, antidemocratic, fascist constellation that needs to be defeated, not negotiated with. Prigozhins mutiny essentially did what Biden has been doing for the past 18 months: exposing Putins weaknesses, puncturing his already impaled veneer of supposed strategic genius and aura of invincibility.

Putin has long ruled with two instruments: fear and money, covered with a cloak of nationalism. He bought those whom he could buy and jailed or killed those whom he couldnt. Some Russia watchers, though, argue that fear has now left the building in Moscow. With Putins aura of invincibility having at least taken a hit, others could soon challenge him. Well see.

If I were Prigozhin or one of his allies, Id still stay away from anyone walking along a Belarusian sidewalk with an umbrella when the sun is shining. Putin has done a pretty effective job of eliminating his critics, and one should never underestimate the deep fears of Russians about any return to the early 1990s chaos after the fall of the Soviet Union and how grateful many still are for the order that Putin restored.

Its Putins balance of power with the rest of the world where things get complicated, because we in the West have as much to fear from Putins weakness as his strength.

There is no sign yet that the Prigozhin mutiny, or the Ukrainian counteroffensive, has led to any significant collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine, but it is too soon to draw any final conclusions.

U.S. officials argue that Putins strategy is to exhaust the Ukrainian Army of its 155-millimeter howitzer artillery shells, the mainstay of its ground forces, as well as of its antiaircraft interceptors, so its ground forces would be naked to Russian airpower and then try to hold on until the Western allies are exhausted or Donald Trump gets re-elected and Putin can get a dirty deal where he saves face in Ukraine.

Its not a crazy strategy. Ukraine fires off so many 155 rounds as many as 8,000 per day that the Biden team is now scrambling to find more stocks before the new factories making them come online in 2024.

Logistics matter. So does whether you are playing defense or offense, because offense is harder and the Russians are now really dug in and have laid mines all across their defense lines, which is why the Ukrainian counteroffensive has been off to a slow start.

As Ivan Krastev, a Russia expert and the chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Bulgaria, told me: In the first year of this war, when Russia was on the offensive, every day that it was not winning, it was losing. In the second year, every day that Ukraine is not winning it, it is losing.

We should not underestimate the courage of Ukrainians. Nor should we underestimate how exhausted they have to be as a society.

And as has happened in history, the Russian Army has been learning from its mistakes, John Arquilla, a longtime professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School in California and the author of Bitskrieg: The New Challenge of Cyber Warfare, explained to me, The Russians suffer, but they always learn.

Putins army has gotten better at pushing authority down to the officers on the front lines and using drones extensively, Arquilla argued. At the same time, the Ukrainian Army has drifted somewhat from its early strategy emphasizing small, mobile units, armed with intelligence and smart weapons, attacking the lumbering Russian Army to adopting a bigger, heavier profile and using more tanks.

The Ukrainians were winning with small units, swift-flowing information and smart munitions, Arquilla said. Now they look a lot more like the Russian Army they were defeating. The battlefield will tell us whether this is the right strategy.

All that said, we should be worried as much by the prospect of Putins defeat as by any victory. What if he is toppled? This is not like the last days of the Soviet Union. There is no nice, decent Yeltsin-like or Gorbachev-like figure with the power and standing to immediately take over.

The old Soviet Union had institutions there were party and state organs, central and provincial which were responsible for maintaining their bailiwicks, as well as some order of succession, Leon Aron, a Russia scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, whose book about Putins Russia is being published in October, remarked to me. When Putin came in, he bulldozed or subverted all political and social structures outside the Kremlin.

But Russian history does offer some surprising twists, Aron added: Longer term, historically, successors to Russias reactionary rulers are often more liberal, especially early in their term: Alexander I after Paul I, Alexander II after Nicholas I, Khrushchev after Stalin, Gorbachev after Andropov. So if we can get through a transition from Putin, there is some hope.

In the near term, though, if Putin is ousted, we could well end up with someone worse. How would you feel if Prigozhin had been in the Kremlin this morning, commanding Russias nuclear arsenal?

You could also get disorder or civil war and the crackup of Russia into warlord/oligarch fiefs. As much as I detest Putin, I detest disorder even more, because when a big state cracks apart, it is very hard to put it back together. The nuclear weapons and criminality that could spill out of a disintegrated Russia would change the world.

This is not a defense of Putin. It is an expression of rage at what he did to his country, making it into a ticking time bomb spread across 11 time zones. Putin has taken the whole world hostage.

If he wins, the Russian people lose. But if he loses and his successor is disorder, the whole world loses.

Continued here:

Opinion | Putin, Prigozhin and the Danger of Disorder - The New York Times

(Bloomberg) -- Switzerland blocked arms maker Ruag AG from selling almost 100 tanks in a deal that would have seen them used by Ukraine in its war with Russia.

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The government said the request is inconsistent with applicable law, noting that Switzerland is a neutral country which cant approve sales of arms bound for an active conflict zone. Ruag said it acknowledged the decision, but declined to comment further when contacted by Bloomberg.

The rejection applies to 96 non-operational Leopard 1 tanks currently stored in Italy, which are property of Ruag. The proposal was for the vehicles to be refurbished in Germany and then sent to Ukraine.

The announcement on Wednesday is unconnected to a separate sale of 25 Leopard 2 tanks of the Swiss army, which are supposed to go to German company Rheinmetall AG.

The latter deal recently won the support of the Swiss government and is expected to go through by next year. In this case, Germany has promised not to send the tanks to Ukraine, but to keep them at home to fill gaps in its own military.

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Switzerland Blocks Sale of Leopard 1 Tanks Bound for Ukraine - Yahoo News

To date, Ukraine has seen 10 of 109 Bradley variants already delivered destroyed, two damaged, and another 12 damaged and abandoned, according to the latest figures from the Oryx open source intelligence tracking group. That figure could be higher, because Oryx only tabulates equipment it can visually verify.

Curiously, none of the 100 Strykers provided to Ukraine have been reported damaged, destroyed or abandoned, which could be an indication of just what Kyiv is holding back in its counteroffensive.

Asked by The War Zone if the U.S. has determined whether any Strykers have been lost, Ryder said that he was not going to do battle damage assessment for the Russian military.

He later added that there was no timeline for the delivery of these vehicles.

The other capabilities in this 41st Presidential Drawdown Authority package include:

Before we head into the latest news from Ukraine,The War Zonereaders can catch up on our previous rolling coverage here.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces continue to make progress in its counteroffensive, likely retaking territory Russia has held since 2014. That, at least, is the conclusion of the U.K Ministry of Defense in its latest daily intelligence briefing.

As well as liberating more villages, the same report suggests that Ukraine has, perhaps for the first time, begun to retake territory in the east of the country that lies beyond the de facto borders established between Kyiv and the self-proclaimedDonetskRepublicin 2014.

"Ukrainian airborne forces have made small advances east from the village ofKrasnohorivka, near Donetsk city, which sits on the old line of control," the briefing states.

"This is one of the first instances since Russia's February 2022 invasion that Ukrainian forces have highly likely recaptured an area of territory occupied by Russia since 2014."

"Recent multiple concurrent Ukrainian assaults throughout the Donbas have likely overstretched Donetsk People's Republic and Chechen forces operating in this area."

All told, U.K. Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace said that Ukraine has already liberated some 300 square kilometers of territory, more than Russia captured during its failed winter campaign.

There is no indication, he added, that Russia has the needed ground troops to counter the multiple threats from Ukraine along the 200-kilometer line from Bakhmut to the left bank of the Dnipro River.

However, when it comes to Bakhmut, while Ukrainian troops are making progress around that city, they have yet to enter it again, Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Tuesday on her Telegram channel.

"At present, offensive actions in the Bakhmut direction have been going on for a fourth day," she said. "Our defenders advance on the flanks every day. Gradually, but surely. As of today, they have not entered the city of Bakhmut."

The reason, she said, is largely because of the defenses Ukraine built up while it held the city.

Bakhmut and its suburbs have "a developed system of engineering fortifications and an extensive network of strongholds. All this was once prepared by our military and local authorities for defense, which actually helped to keep it for so long," said Maliar. "But now these fortifications and strongholds have been occupied by the enemy, so to liberate these lands requires a little more effort and patience."

The Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel concurred with Maliar that Ukraine is making progress around Bakhmut, a surge it claimed that could spell greater trouble for Russian forces in that part of the front.

As his troops have made progress, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited two areas along the frontline in eastern andsouthern Ukraine.

"Today the front. Donetsk region, Zaporizhzhia," he said on his nightly address. "Our warriors, our frontline positions, areas of active operations at the front. Today, our warriors have advanced in all directions, and this is a happy day. I wished the guys more days like this."

Zelensky's comments come after Ukrainian troops reportedly established a foothold near the Antonovsky Bridge on the left bank of the Dnipro and retook the village of Rivnopil.

On Tuesday, the battle for the area near the bridge raged on, with both sides trading heavy artillery fire as Ukraine tries to hold on to its bridgehead and Russia tries to counterattack.

Ukraine's special operations forces (SSO) riverine units have played a big role in the burgeoning Dnipro River area of operations.

Once again, rail infrastructure within Russian-occupied Crimea appears to have come under attack.

According to the Telegram channel of the official Russian RIA Novosti news agency, railway tracks were damaged in easternCrimea. That account cites the Russian-imposed regional governor, who said repairs would take four to eight hours. The reports did not state what caused the damage, but there has been a series of similar attacks on railways both in Crimea and in areas of Russian close to the Ukrainian border which some have blamed on Ukraine or pro-Ukrainian partisans.

A top Chinese official has suggested that Beijing could back Ukraines aims of reclaiming its 1991 territorial integrity, which includes Crimea - the peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 - Al Jazeera reported Tuesday.

In a recent interview, Chinas envoy to the European Union Fu Cong said I dont see why not when asked about supporting Kyivs goals, which include reclaiming other Ukrainian regions now occupied by Russia.

We respect the territorial integrity of all countries, according to Al Jazeera. So when China established relations with the former Soviet Union, thats what we agreed. But as I said, these are historical issues that need to be negotiated and resolved by Russia and Ukraine and that is what we stand for.

Images of Chinese-manufactured Type 66 152mm high explosive artillery shells being used by Russia, meanwhile, have emerged on social media. It is unclear of where the munitions came from, but markings on the containers indicate they could have originally been delivered to Iran, then shipped to Russia.

Wallace told Parliament today that the Storm Shadow air-launched, conventionally armed cruise missiles are having a "significant impact on the battlefield" thanks to its accuracy and Ukraine's ability to successfully deliver the payload. You can read more about what the Storm Shadow brings to the table for Ukraine in our deep dive here.

Canadian troops are working to prove a new concept of operations involving heavily armedPolaris MRZR4x4 all-terrain vehicles, including oneswith TOW anti-tank missiles. This effort started late last year and comes as troops in Ukraine have been making use of all-terrain vehicles, buggies, and other very light vehicles as mobile anti-tank platforms for well over a year now. You can read more about this in our story here.

The United Nations Humans Rights Office today announced that Russian forces have carried out widespread and systematic torture of civilians since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Dozens of civilians have also been summarily executed by Russian forces in the same timeframe, the U.N. says. Meanwhile, Ukrainian security forces are accused of 75 cases of arbitrary detention of civilians.

As part of its report, the U.N. Humans Rights Office interviewed hundreds of victims and witnesses, resulting in details of more than 900 civilians being arbitrarily detained in the conflict, including children and elderly people, most of them by Russia. The vast majority of those interviewed reported torture and, in some cases, being subjected to sexual violence during detention by Russian forces.

The head of the U.N. Humans Rights Office inUkraine, Matilda Bogner,said: Torture was used to force victims to confess to helping the Ukrainian Armed Forces, compel them to cooperate with the occupying authorities or intimidate those with pro-Ukrainian views, AP reports.

There was much speculation after it was noted that an Il-96-300 transport from the Russian Special Air Group had departed Vnukovo Airport, outside Moscow, headed for Washington DC. The aircraft, a type normally used for transporting Russian government officials, is being used for a regular rotation of diplomatic staff, Maria Zakharova, a Russian Foreign Ministry press spokesperson, told the TASS news agency.

According to TASS: "The plane flying to Washington will take out Russian diplomats who are ordered to leave the U.S. in connection with the completion of a three-year stay," Zakharova said.

"Russian diplomats are leaving the U.S. not because of expulsion, but because of restrictions imposed by Washington on the work of Russian foreign missions."

Exactly a year after a Russian airstrike on Kremenchuk hit a busy shopping mall, killing at least 21 civilians, explosions have again rocked the central Ukrainian city.

"Explosions were heard in Kremenchuk," said Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ignat. "We are waiting to hear from regional administrations about the implications of the explosions."

Ignat said that two missiles were spotted before the explosions were heard inKremenchuk, according to a report from Reuters.

Last year's attack on Kremenchuk took place at a time when authorities estimated there were hundreds of people inside the shopping mall. Many were trapped inside and different world leaders subsequently described the incident as a war crime.

Elsewhere, the Ukrainian Armed Forces claim they shot down two Kalibr cruise missiles and seven Iranian-made Shahed drones in the course of last night. The same source states that Russia carried out 45 airstrikes and launched 38 attacks using multiple rocket launch systems (MLRS) on Monday night.

Another Russian engineering vehicle has apparently been captured, which will come in handy when it is repaired and used by Ukrainian forces.

More video emerged of Russian forces coming under attack from Ukraine.

And finally, while we have seen a number of innovations and improvisations from both sides, the modified turret placed on the hull of this Russian T-72B2K main battle tank is one of the more unusual ones we have seen.

That's it for now. We'll update this story when there's more news to report about Ukraine.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

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Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Replenishes Kyiv's Bradley Fighting Vehicle Force - The War Zone