Daily Archives: May 14, 2023

And now, with Trump expanding his lead over his GOP primary rivals, pollsters are fretting about a bloc of the electorate that has made his support nearly impossible to measure accurately.

Its looking a lot like Trump is going to be on the ballot next November, said Democratic pollster Andrew Baumann. So that is all back with a vengeance.

Its not that Trump is some mystical force. The problems are practical. In 2020, he drew out significant numbers of people who had rarely if ever voted and who either werent included in polls or refused to participate in them. Trump trashed the polls that found him consistently trailing Biden. This created a feedback loop that made his supporters even less likely to respond, making the polls even more wrong.

Baumann was among the attendees and presenters at this weeks American Association for Public Opinion Researchs annual conference, a yearly gathering of pollsters from the academic, media and campaign worlds.

That organization has been grappling with the future of political polling for decades. Just looking at the polls over the past two federal election cycles will give you whiplash. By most measures, last years midterms represented the pinnacle of election polling. FiveThirtyEights post-election evaluation found that polls were more accurate than any year since 1998.

But that came two years after the preceding presidential race, when national polls were further off than they had been in 40 years, and the state polls were the worst in recorded history.

The specter of yet another polling failure is looming over the industrys continuing efforts to overhaul its methods.

Among public pollsters, CNN made some of the most dramatic changes to its methodology. Mostly abandoning its longstanding process of random-digit phone sampling, the network and its polling vendor SSRS randomly selected street addresses for its national surveys and mailed out solicitations to complete a poll online or by dialing a number.

For much of their state polling which requires faster turnaround times to poll statewide races like those for governor or Senate some voters were surveyed off a file of registered voters and contacted either by email or telephone, depending on the best contact information available. Others were added from SSRS existing panel of respondents who said they were registered to vote.

The results were remarkable. CNNs polls correctly identified the winner in eight of the nine major statewide races they surveyed missing only the Nevada Senate race and half of the candidate vote shares were accurate within a single percentage point.

We were within the error margin on just about every [poll] we did, said Jennifer Agiesta, the director of polling and election analytics at CNN. So I feel pretty good about how these turned out. I would say that does give me some confidence between now and 2024.

But Agiesta said its too soon to tell if the same problems that plagued pollsters in 2020 will resurface.

I dont think that [Trumps] comments on polling and the way that he presented his views on polling to his supporters were helpful in terms of response rate in 2020, added Agiesta, who also began a one-year term as president of the pollsters organization at this weeks conference. But I dont know if thats going to be the same in future elections.

The Democratic polling firm Global Strategy Group is trying a significant methodological change on the back end. According to research the firm presented at the AAPOR conference, their 2022 polls were made more accurate by using voters self-reported 2020 general-election presidential vote as a variable a practice numerous others have also adopted, though its still far from universal.

That, in addition to other adjustments like trying to include voters who arent as politically active, was an important discovery, because Global Strategy Group like pollsters across the public and private campaign worlds significantly underestimated Republicans in its 2020 polling.

We think that the stuff that weve done to correct for that between accounting for past vote history in the 2020 election and looking at how important politics is to a persons identity are going to be able to capture that and correct for these biases that really bit us in the ass in 2020, said Baumann, who is a partner at Global Strategy Group.

The phenomenon that led a segment of Trump voters to boycott the polls is similar to other trends, including those picked up in new polling this week from YouGov, which found that Republicans trust almost all media outlets less than Democrats, with the exception of conservative media.

If anybody wants to really be honest, it is going to be an enormous challenge if it indeed is going to be Trump [against] Biden in 24, said Don Levy, the director of the Siena College Research Institute, which conducted polling in 2022 for the New York Times and the local cable news outlet chain Spectrum News. Because we know that that voter is disinclined to speak to us.

But thats only part of the problems that pollsters have identified since 2020. Its not just that voters closely aligned with Trump are harder to reach less-engaged voters of all stripes are less likely to participate, too.

And, the evidence suggests, the best way to reach those voters who very well may cast ballots in high-turnout presidential elections like 2020 but are less likely to participate in midterms remains the traditional and expensive form of phone surveys. Some pollsters have replaced or eschewed that method entirely to save money.

Not all pollsters see a sharp dividing line between 2022 and 2024. Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster whose 2022 clients included Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), said that while Trump wasnt a candidate for office last year, he was still a major issue in the midterm campaign.

Trump was on the ballot, said Greenberg. Between Mar-a-Lago documents and the Jan. 6 commission, and then certainly at the statewide level, the so-called MAGA candidates: Blake Masters, [Mehmet] Oz, [Doug] Mastriano there was so much coverage of these being his candidates.

Overall, the mood at this weeks conference was mostly positive, riding high from 2022 even with the prospects of another Trump-sparked miss looming in next years presidential election.

Im still worried about 2024, said Baumann. I dont think that any pollster should be out there feeling superconfident that we have everything fixed, because we were confident that we did after 2016. And we didnt.

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Pollsters worry Trump problem is 'back with a vengeance' - POLITICO

Washington In the same Washington, D.C., courthouse where the Justice Department has been convening grand juries to investigate former President Donald Trump's actions around the 2020 presidential election and his handling of classified documents, federal prosecutors managing a separate case were successful Friday in their request to delay a Trump deposition that had been scheduled for later this month in a four-year-old civil lawsuit filed by former FBI officials.

Former FBI counterintelligence official Peter Strzok and a one-time attorney at the Bureau, Lisa Page, sued the Justice Department after they were both fired during the federal probe into Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election. In the course of the investigation, text messages exchanged by the two revealed anti-Trump sentiments.

Strzok's lawsuit claims he was unjustly fired from the job for political reasons and seeks reinstatement at the FBI and back pay. Page argues the text messages were unlawfully released and violated her privacy.

In a minute order issued Friday evening, Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled in favor of the Justice Department's request that FBI Director Christopher Wray be deposed before Strzok has a chance to question Trump.

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Both Strzok and Page have moved to depose numerous former and current government officials, and earlier this year, Jackson ruled Strzok had the right to interview Trump and FWray. But according to an emergency filing on Thursday, federal prosecutors say Trump's deposition, which was supposed to take place May 24, was scheduled before any such meeting was set for Wray. The Justice Department said this violates long-standing norms that federal officials are to be questioned in order of their seniority.

"Contrary to the request of the United States, Mr. Strzok seeks to depose former President Trump before Director Wray," prosecutors wrote Thursday, "thereby making it impossible to determine if the Director's deposition might obviate the need to depose the former President."

They asked the judge to order a new schedule for the depositions and threatened to take the issue to the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals if she did not agree.

"The Solicitor General authorized the government to petition the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit for a writ of mandamus as to this Court's determination that former President Trump may be deposed in this matter," the Justice Department revealed in the filing. Writs of Mandamus are rare orders issued by higher courts that supersede findings by lower court judges.

"For decades, the D.C. Circuit and virtually every other court of appeals have recognized that subjecting high-level government officialsto say nothing of current or former Presidents 'to oral deposition is not normally countenanced,'" prosecutors wrote in their redacted motion.

In her order Friday, Jackson wrote that "the parties have done nothing more than wrangle over the order of the two depositions."

"The government seems chagrined that the Court did not order that the deposition of the FBI Director be completed first, but it may recall that it was the Court's view that it was Director Wray, the only current high-ranking public official in the group of proposed deponents, whose ongoing essential duties fell most squarely under the protection of the doctrine in question," Jackson wrote. "However, in order to get the parties -- who apparently still cannot agree on anything -- over this impasse, it is hereby ORDERED that the deposition of Christopher Wray proceed first, rendering the instant motion moot."

Attorneys for both Strzok and Page's legal team did not immediately respond to Jackson's order when reached by CBS News.

Earlier this year, the White House said it would not assert executive privilege over Trump's testimony and thereby shield him from deposition, and federal prosecutors said the former president did not request the privilege.

Strzok and Page's text messages and involvement in the Russia investigation fueled much of Trump's ire toward the FBI during the Mueller investigation, alleging anti-Trump views inside the Justice Department at the time. An inspector general report found that while the conduct was "completely antithetical to the core values of the department," there was no evidence that any bias ultimately changed the outcome of the investigation.

In his lawsuit, Strzok alleges "The FBI fired [him] because of his protected political speech in violation of his rights under the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States." And Page contends the release of the text messages was unlawful and led her to be the subject of "frequent attacks by the President of the United States, as well as his allies and supporters."

The Justice Department asked Judge Jackson to respond to their request to block Trump's testimony by Tuesday.

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Judge agrees to postpone Trump deposition in FBI lawsuit - CBS News

Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argued that former President Donald Trump is not only a strong candidate for reelection in 2024, but the most likely person to win and take back the White House.

"A second Trump act is not just possible. Its fast becoming my base case," Ferguson wrote in an op-ed for The Spectator.

Ferguson explained that even a sustained "campaign of lawfare" against the former president by his political enemies is not enough to stop him from coming back into the White House. In fact, "the prospect of him performing the perp walk attracts media coverage, and media coverage is the free publicity on which Trump has always thrived," he said.

TRUMP FIRES BACK AT CRITICS SLAMMING HIS TOWN HALL: DID THE RIGHT THING

Historian and Hoover Institution senior fellow Niall Ferguson argued that former President Donald Trump was not only a strong candidate for reelection in 2024, but the most likely person to win and take back the White House. (James Devaney/GC Images)

Trump was found liable for sexual abuse against writer E. Jean Carroll on May 9 in a verdict that fell short of the accusations of rape that Carroll made. Carroll alleged that Trump sexually abused her in a Manhattan department store nearly three decades ago, though she could not remember "if the alleged assault happened in 1995 or 1996," Ferguson pointed out.

But even that verdict helps bring attention to Trump, according to Ferguson. "Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination," he wrote.

Ferguson also argued that Trump is the "clear frontrunner" among the Republican field for 2024. A Fox News survey in April showed that Trump maintained a solid, 53 percent lead in April among Republican primary voters, beating out Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 32 points.

DEMOCRATS TERRIFIED TRUMP COULD BEAT BIDEN IN 2024 REMATCH: 'BE VERY F---ING WORRIED'

DeSantis has still yet to officially declare for the presidency, though he is highly anticipated to do so.

DeSantis has still yet to officially declare for the presidency, though he is highly anticipated to do so.

But even DeSantis popularity among some of the Republican base far from guarantees him a chance at beating Trump. As Ferguson explained, the "Republican primary process favours candidates with early leads because most states award delegates on a winner takes all or winner takes most basis."

CNN FACING 'FURY' FROM STAFFERS OVER TRUMP TOWN HALL: 'IT FELT LIKE 2016 ALL OVER AGAIN'

It is a "lesson of history" that is clear, Ferguson said, and one that bodes well for Trump: "The Republican frontrunner usually wins the nomination, and a post-recession incumbent usually loses the presidential election."

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That's because a recession would also help boost Trumps chances for victory in 2024, Ferguson added, writing that it "does not need to be as severe as the Great Depression that destroyed Herbert Hoovers presidency. A plain vanilla recession will suffice."

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Trump as president in 2024 is not just possible, but likely: Historian - Fox News

When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, it quickly became clear that much of the media was not up to the challenge of covering a candidate who openly lied, espoused racist ideologies, bragged about sexual assault, and encouraged his supporters to embrace a toxic vision for America by playing on their fears and insecurities.

Part of the problem was that coverage of Trump was a ratings boon for the struggling news industrywith the Trump bump sending record numbers of viewers and readers to newspapers, online publications, and TV shows. It was intoxicating for the industry. News channels were captivated by Trumps roadshow, famously airing empty podiums as they waited for him to arrive, instead of going live to his opponent Hillary Clinton giving a speech about her plans to raise incomes for working families. Newspaper journalists spent countless hours in red state diners trying to probe the psyche of Trump voters as if they were unknowable mysteries, instead of people who regularly expressed exactly who they were and what they were about.

Even so, the American media establishment was blindsided by Trumps 2016 victory, and vastly underestimated his ability to carry out his far-right agenda as president. While he was in the White House, many in the press fell back upon euphemisms and false equivalencies, as Perry Bacon, Jr. wrote recently in the Washington Post: They played down Trumps radicalism to appear neutral and objective, to get access to Trump and his top aides or to appeal to Republican officials and consumers. And even now, they continue to curry favor with Trump and traffic in the rhetoric of both sidesas if there is more than one side to bigotry.

After Trump lost the 2020 election, fomented an insurrection, and has continued, to this day, to promote the big lie, that he was robbed of a second term as president, I dared hope that the media had learned its lesson about how to cover Trump on the campaign trail.

In these early days of the 2024 election cycle, though, it would seem that nothing was learned at all.

Trump looked tired when he strolled onto the New Hampshire stage for CNNs town hall on Wednesday, visibly wearing every one of his 76 years. The day before, a federal jury had found him liable for sexually abusing E. Jean Carroll in the 1990s, and then defaming her. Still, CNN opted to move forward with the televised event, moderated by This Morning anchor and chief correspondent Kaitlan Collins in front of an audience of Republicans and Independent voters inclined to vote for hima curious choice, at best.

From the very first moment to the abrupt last, Trump was exactly who he has long revealed himself to be.

The candidate was bombastic, arrogant, and rude. He lied time and time again. When Collins, who came across as well-prepared and well-versed in all the political issues, corrected his lies in real time, he spoke over her, smirking as he declared his warped version of the truth to be the final word on everything from election fraud to the Jan. 6 insurrection to the debt ceiling. He continued to denigrate Carroll (who now says shes considering suing him again). And save for the final minutes of the town hall, Collins ended up looking helpless in the face of the former presidents performanceexactly as he and his camp wanted it.

At times, Trump looked like a lunatic, babbling incoherent nonsense. At opportune moments, he threw out the words sure to rile up his base. Radical. Border. Patriot. Nasty person. Rarely did he answer the question being asked, instead using each one as an invitation to continue discussing whatever he wanted. The audience applauded and laughed and applauded and laughed. That was, perhaps, the most disappointing aspect of the prime time TV event, watched by 3.3 million people.

But the morning after this debacle was even more disappointing, perhaps, when CNNs chairman, Chris Licht, congratulated Collins on a masterful performance and himself on his bravery in airing it. I absolutely, unequivocally believe America was served very well by what we did last night, he declared on the networks morning editorial call. He went on to say that Kaitlan pressed him again and again, and made news, made a lot of news.

Lets be clear: Media organizations are, mostly, businesses. They are struggling businesses in the midst of a downward spiral, making it harder to walk away from a spectacle that will bring them a big audience, even if the spectacle is destructive, corrosive to democracy, and criminal. Any one of CNNs rival networks would likely have jumped at the opportunity to air the town hall. I would like to believe, however, that they would have done so with slightly more integrity.

Most media enterprises employ great journalists who know how to call out liars and criminalsseveral did so at CNN, criticizing their own employers. But those people, doing the right thing and holding power to account, cant compete with the spectacle. Trump and people like him know this, which is why they rarely face the press without bringing their own circus to town.

This town hall will consume peoples attention until we move on to the next garish spectacle. But there are far more critical issues we should be discussing: That Trump remains the frontrunner to represent his party by a wide margin; that the GOP considers him a viable candidate despite everything that has happened; that his base remains unrelentingly loyal to him. These are real problems. In the face of all that, the fact that CNN gave him a primetime platform for monologuing lies and misinformation, thereby conferring legitimacy on his ideological viewpoints, is a real problem.

In the discourse cycle following the town hall, some pundits have raised the specter of ideological silosadmonishing those who criticize Wednesdays farce that we shouldnt only surround ourselves with people who reflect our values and beliefs. But those of us who find Trump odious are not living in a silo. We absolutely see and understand that half the country is fine with who Trump is and what he stands for.

Bigotry is not merely a different opinion that we should expose ourselves to. It isnt an intellectual exercise or a useful contribution to a range of diverse viewpoints. It is an evil that must be eradicated. It must be identified as unacceptable, as often as necessary. And it should be denied the oxygen of the media. Freedom of speech does not guarantee unfettered access to media coverage.

Time and again, journalists say they just dont know how to cover Trump, that he is impossible to cover. But he is only impossible to cover because he receives an inordinate amount of the media attention he so desperately craves. He is impossible to cover because he does whatever he wants, and no one truly challenges him. He is impossible to cover because we continue to let him dictate the terms of engagement.

Its time to stop. If journalism is really about truth, there is nothing newsworthy about giving free airtime to the prime minister of mendacity. Trump has been found guilty of crimes and faces several other criminal investigations. He disdains democracy and openly embraces autocracy.

There should be standards for people seeking to lead the United States. Donald Trump does not meet those standards, by any measure. We should stop using euphemisms when it comes to his words and deeds. We should stop pretending that because he is the leading candidate, what he has to say is automatically newsworthy. When he refuses to speak truthfully or acknowledge election results, we should simply stop the interview and walk away. Enough is enough; too much is at stake. We should protect, at all costs, the many vulnerable populations that will be made less safe in a second Trump presidency. No matter what we believe or which party we are aligned with, we should want better for this country, for our communities, for the world we are a part of.

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The media is not equipped to handle the return of Donald Trump - Fortune

Donald Trump

That Republican elders dare not alienate the ex-presidents fanbase shows how fully he has shaped the party in his image

One day he was found liable for sexual abuse and defamation. The next he was on prime-time television pushing election lies, defending his own coup attempt and refusing to back Ukraine.

To his millions of critics, it was another week that proved Donald Trump is unfit for office and dangerous to democracy. But to the top leaders of Trumps Republican party, it was another week to keep heads down and say nothing.

Kevin McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives; Mitch McConnell, the minority leader in the Senate; leading state governors and even most of Trumps potential rivals for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024 have made a habit of siding with him or remaining silent as each scandal comes and goes.

Critics say their complicity underlines how comprehensively Trump took over the Republican party and shaped it in his own image. Even though McConnell and others privately loathe Trump and wish him gone, they dare not alienate his fervent support base. Rick Wilson, a former Republican consultant and co-founder of the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, sums it up in one word: fear.

They are afraid of the mob, theyre afraid of the horde, theyre afraid of the anger and the craziness and the rage and the threats that come any time a Republican elected official really stands up and opposes Donald Trump, Wilson said.

He added: None of the major elected officials McConnell, McCarthy, the big state governors are going to come out and say what they believe and know: that he is a monstrous figure and he is a dangerous figure.

Trump ran against the Republican establishment in 2016, exciting a grassroots army of supporters and eventually bending the party to his will. His victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the presidential election and pursuit of an agenda that fit many Republican priorities, from sweeping tax cuts to rightwing supreme court justices, persuaded many in leadership to overlook his chaotic style.

But relations with McConnell soured over time, culminating in the 6 January 2021 insurrection at the US Capitol, for which he said Trump was practically and morally responsible. The former president has branded McConnell an old crow and repeatedly hurled racist insults at his Taiwanese-born wife, former transportation secretary Elaine Chao.

Even so, despite their mutual animosity, the minority leader made clear this week that he will support Trump if he is the Republican nominee in 2024. Asked about the former presidents improving poll numbers, McConnell told CNN: Im going to support the nominee of our party for president, no matter who that may be.

Meanwhile Steve Daines, chair of the Senate Republicans campaign arm, has endorsed Trump for president in what many see as an attempt to curry favour with him and curb his meddling in next years Senate elections. Trumps backing of extremists in last years midterms cost McConnell control of the Senate an outcome that he is eager to avoid repeating.

Wilson, author of Everything Trump Touches Dies, commented: He can say, See, Mr Trump, Im loyal to you. I love you. Im a good person. You should listen to me. Please, please, please dont tell Tudor Dixon she should run again or dont tell Kari Lake she should run again. These are very transactional and tactical approaches but nonetheless they are approaches that these people are willing to do to survive in a war with Trump.

He added: There is no Republican party. Its just Trump. It is only about his desires and his political power, his political goals. If you told the average Republican elected official, you have to cut off your arm to get an endorsement from Trump, theyre going to ask you for a saw and some Band-Aids.

McCarthy, for his part, also seemed shaken by the events of January 6, but later that month he visited Trumps Mar-a-Lago home in Florida, signalling that all was forgiven. When McCarthy was elected speaker earlier this year after a gruelling series of votes, he paid tribute to Trump for working the phones to help him secure victory.

Since then he has swatted aside every legal controversy, including last month when, as Trump became the first former president to face criminal charges, McCarthy tweeted that the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, had weaponized our sacred system of justice against President Donald Trump.

This week, in a civil case, a New York jury determined that Trump sexually abused and defamed the writer E Jean Carroll, awarding her $5m in damages (Trump is appealing the verdict). That alone would be enough to sink most political careers but McCarthy repeatedly dodged the issue when asked to comment by reporters on Capitol Hill.

Other Republicans went further in expressing their fealty to Trump. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida told reporters: That jurys a joke. The whole case is a joke. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina added: When it comes to Donald Trump, the New York legal system is off the rails. Former vice-president Mike Pence told NBC News: I would tell you, in my four and a half years serving alongside the president, I never heard or witnessed behaviour of that nature.

The following day, Trump gave an unhinged, falsehood-filled performance in a town hall event broadcast live on the CNN network. He vowed to pardon a large portion of the January 6 rioters, suggested that Republicans should let the government default on its debts and refused to call Vladimir Putin a war criminal over the killing of Ukrainian civilians.

Strikingly, many in the audience in Manchester, New Hampshire, burst into applause and egged Trump on. When he made fun of Carroll they laughed. It was a glimpse of the Make America great again base that keeps party leaders awake at night.

Donna Brazile, a former chairperson of the Democratic National Committee, said: The voters stand by Donald Trump and as long as he has a grip on the Republican party and its voters, the leaders cannot step out ahead of where the voters are.

People should not condemn these voters, these voters who need to be educated, listened to and respected. After all, over 70 million Americans supported Donald Trump in the last election. Thats nothing to sneeze at. Thats voters who know what he stands for, know what he represents and still theyre with him.

She added: As long as theyre sticking with Trump, I do believe that the leaders of the Republican party will also stand by Trump. Regardless of what they say behind his back, theyll stick with Trump.

Even in the Trump era, the Republican party is not a monolith. The sexual abuse verdict prompted criticism from senators including John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, Mike Rounds and John Thune. In an interview with Punchbowl News, Bill Cassidy asked: What if it was your sister? How could it not create concern?

After the chaotic CNN town hall, Chris Christie, a former governor of New Jersey, described Trump as Putins puppet and there was condemnation from Chris Sununu, the governor of New Hampshire, and Asa Hutchinson, a former governor of Arkansas running for president. But these are exceptions that prove the rule. Other confirmed or likely primary candidates steered clear in what is now a familiar pattern.

After all, the Trump era is littered with the political corpses of Republicans who tried to oppose him only to suffer online abuse, public heckling, death threats or retribution at the ballot box. Senators Bob Corker, Jeff Flake and Ben Sasse and Representatives Justin Amash, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are among those who quit or were purged. They left behind a party that increasingly resembles Trump.

Kurt Bardella, a Democratic strategist, said: They have refused to divorce themselves from someone that they know is both a political loser for them and who represents things that are completely destructive to our democracy. After everything that we have seen, after everything that the Republican party itself has endured in terms of its underperforming in multiple election cycles, the only reason why they havent divorced themselves from Donald Trump is because they dont want to.

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As Trumps lies and scandals deepen, the GOP responds as usual with silence - The Guardian US

In November, Representative Byron Donalds scored a coveted speaking slot: introducing Gov. Ron DeSantis after a landslide re-election turned the swing state of Florida deep red. Standing onstage at a victory party for Mr. DeSantis in Tampa, Mr. Donalds praised him as Americas governor.

By April, Mr. Donalds was seated at a table next to another Florida Republican: Donald J. Trump. He was at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trumps private club, for a multicourse dinner with nine other House Republicans from Florida who had spurned their home-state governor to endorse the former presidents 2024 run. Red Make America Great Again hats decorated their place settings.

In six short months from November to May, Mr. DeSantiss 2024 run has faltered before it has even begun.

Allies have abandoned him. Tales of his icy interpersonal touch have spread. Donors have groused. And a legislative session in Tallahassee designed to burnish his conservative credentials has instead coincided with a drop in the polls.

His decision not to begin any formal campaign until after the Florida legislative session allowing him to cast himself as a conservative fighter who not only won but actually delivered results instead opened a window of opportunity for Mr. Trump. The former president filled the void with personal attacks and a heavy rotation of negative advertising from his super PAC. Combined with Mr. DeSantiss cocooning himself in the right-wing media and the Trump teams success in outflanking him on several fronts, the governor has lost control of his own national narrative.

Now, as Mr. DeSantiss Tallahassee-based operation pivots to formally entering the race in the coming weeks, Mr. DeSantis and his allies are retooling for a more aggressive new phase. His staunchest supporters privately acknowledge that Mr. DeSantis needs to recalibrate a political outreach and media strategy that has allowed Mr. Trump to define the race.

Changes are afoot. Mr. DeSantis is building a strong Iowa operation. He has been calling influential Republicans in Iowa and is rolling out a large slate of state legislator endorsements before a weekend trip there.

He definitely indicated that if he gets in, he will work exceptionally hard nothing will be below him, said Bob Vander Plaats, an influential Iowa evangelical leader whom Mr. DeSantis hosted recently for a meal at the governors mansion. I think he understands I emphasized that Iowas a retail politics state. You need to shake peoples hands, look them in the eye.

Still, his central electability pitch MAGA without the mess has been badly bruised.

A book tour that was supposed to have introduced him nationally was marked by missteps that deepened concerns about his readiness for the biggest stage. He took positions on two pressing domestic and international issues abortion and the war in Ukraine that generated second-guessing and backlash among some allies and would-be benefactors. And the moves he has made to appeal to the hard right escalating his feud with Disney, signing a strict six-week abortion ban have unnerved donors who are worried about the general election.

I was in the DeSantis camp, said Andrew Sabin, a metals magnate who gave the Florida governor $50,000 last year. But he started opening his mouth, and a lot of big donors said his views arent tolerable. He specifically cited abortion and Ukraine.

Three billionaires who are major G.O.P. donors Steve Wynn, Ike Perlmutter and Thomas Peterffy, a past DeSantis patron who has publicly soured on him dined recently with Vivek Ramaswamy, the 37-year-old long-shot Republican.

The early months of 2023 have exposed a central challenge for Mr. DeSantis. He needs to stitch together an unwieldy ideological coalition bridging both anti-Trump Republicans and Trump supporters who are nonetheless considering turning the page on the past president. Hitting and hugging Mr. Trump at the same time has bedeviled rivals since Senator Ted Cruz tried to do so in 2016, and Cruz veterans fill key roles in Mr. DeSantiss campaign and his super PAC.

Allies of both leading Republicans caution that its still early.

Mr. DeSantis has more than $100 million stored across various pro-DeSantis accounts. He is building good will with state party leaders by headlining fund-raisers. He remains, in public polls, the most serious rival to Mr. Trump. And a supportive super PAC called Never Back Down is staffing up across more than a dozen states, has already spent more than $10 million on television ads and has peppered early states with direct mail.

DeSantis supporters point to polls showing that the governor remains well-liked by Republicans.

The hits arent working, said Kristin Davison, chief operating officer of Never Back Down. His favorability has not changed.

The DeSantis team declined to provide any comment for this story.

Six months ago, as Republicans were blaming Mr. Trump for the partys 2022 midterm underperformance, a high-flying Mr. DeSantis made the traditional political decision that he would govern first in early 2023 and campaign second. The rush of conservative priorities that Mr. DeSantis has turned into law in Florida on guns, immigration, abortion, school vouchers, opposing China is expected to form the backbone of his campaign.

Now, the governor can create momentum by spending time publicly touting his endless accomplishments, calling supporters and engaging more publicly to push back on the false narratives his potential competitors are spewing, said Nick Iarossi, a lobbyist in Florida and a longtime DeSantis supporter.

A turning point this year for Mr. Trump was his Manhattan indictment, which Mr. DeSantis waffled on responding to as the G.O.P. base rallied to Mr. Trumps defense.

Yet Mr. Trumps compounding legal woes and potential future indictments could eventually have the opposite effect exhausting voters, which is Mr. DeSantiss hope. A jury found Mr. Trump liable this week for sexual abuse and defamation. When you get all these lawsuits coming at you, Mr. DeSantis told one associate recently, its just distracting.

The DeSantis team seemed to buy its own hype.

Days before the midterms, the DeSantis campaign released a video that cast his rise as ordained from on high. On the eighth day, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, I need a protector, a narrator booms as Mr. DeSantis appears onscreen. So God made a fighter.

For years, the self-confident Mr. DeSantis has relied on his own instincts and the counsel of his wife, Casey DeSantis, who posted the video, to set his political course, according to past aides and current associates. Mr. DeSantis has been written off before in his first primary for governor; in his first congressional primary so both he and his wife have gotten used to tuning out critics.

Today, allies say there are few people around who are willing to tell Mr. DeSantis hes wrong, even in private.

In late 2022, the thinking was that a decision on 2024 could wait, and Mr. Trumps midterm hangover would linger. Mr. DeSantis published a book I was, you know, kind of a hot commodity, he said of writing it that became a best seller. And Mr. DeSantis was on the offensive, tweaking Mr. Trump with a February donor retreat held only miles from Mar-a-Lago that drew Trump contributors.

But it has been Mr. Trump who has consistently one-upped Mr. DeSantis, flying into East Palestine, Ohio, after the rail disaster there, appearing with a larger crowd in the same Iowa city days after Mr. DeSantis and swiping Florida congressional endorsements while Mr. DeSantis traveled to Washington.

One Trump endorser, Representative Lance Gooden of Texas, backed the former president only hours after attending a private group meeting with Mr. DeSantis. In an interview, Mr. Gooden likened Mr. DeSantiss decision to delay entry until after a legislative session to the example of a past Texas governor, Rick Perry, who did the same a decade ago and quickly flamed out of the 2012 contest.

Hes relied, much like Rick Perry did, on local political experts in his home state that just dont know the presidential landscape, Mr. Gooden said.

Mr. Trump has insinuated, without providing evidence, that Mr. DeSantis had inappropriate relationships with high school girls during a stint as a teacher in the early 2000s and that Mr. DeSantis might be gay.

His team has portrayed Mr. DeSantis as socially inept, and a pro-Trump super PAC distributed a video dubbed Pudding Fingers playing off news articles about Mr. DeSantiss uncouth eating habits.

People close to Mr. Trump have been blunt in private discussions that the hits so far are just the start: If Mr. DeSantis ever appears poised to capture the nomination, the former president will do everything he can to tear him apart.

Beginning with his response to the coronavirus outbreak, Mr. DeSantiss national rise has been uniquely powered by his ability to make the right enemies: in academia, in the news media, among liberal activists and at the White House. But Mr. Trumps broadsides and some of his own actions have put Mr. DeSantis crosswise with the right for the first time. It has been a disorienting experience for the DeSantis operation, according to allies.

For the past three years, Mr. DeSantis has had the luxury of completely shutting out what he pejoratively brands the national regime media or the corporate media though Rupert Murdochs Fox Corporation does not, in his view, count as corporate media.

This strategy served Mr. DeSantis well in Florida. But avoiding sit-down interviews with skeptical journalists has left him out of practice as he prepares for the most intense scrutiny of his career.

The Murdochs encapsulated him in a bubble and force-fed him to a conservative audience, said Steve Bannon, a former strategist for Mr. Trump. He hasnt been scuffed up. He hasnt had these questions put in his grill.

Even in friendly settings, Mr. DeSantis has stumbled. In a February interview with The Times of London, a Murdoch property, Mr. DeSantis cut off questions after the reporter pushed him on how he thought President Biden should handle Ukraine differently.

The former Fox News host Tucker Carlson was so irked by Mr. DeSantiss evasion that he sent a detailed questionnaire to potential Republican presidential candidates to force them to state their positions on the war, according to two people familiar with his decision.

In a written response, Mr. DeSantis characterized Russias invasion as a territorial dispute. Republican hawks and some of Mr. DeSantiss top donors were troubled. In public, the governor soon cleaned up his statement to say Russia had not had a right to invade. In private, Mr. DeSantis tried to calm supporters by noting that his statement had not taken a position against aid to Ukraine.

While Mr. DeSantis has stuck to his preferred way of doing things, Mr. Trump has given seats on his plane to reporters from outlets that have published harsh stories about him. And despite having spent years calling CNN fake news, Mr. Trump recently attended a CNN town hall.

DeSantis allies said the governor would begrudgingly bring in some of the national regime media. Some early proof: The governors tight-lipped team invited a Politico columnist to Tallahassee and supplied rare on-the-record access.

Not long after Mr. DeSantis had won in a landslide last fall, the incoming freshman, Representative Cory Mills, a Florida Republican, called the governors team to try to thank him for his support. Mr. Mills had campaigned on the eve of the election with Casey DeSantis and had appeared with the governor, too. I called to show my appreciation and never even got a call back, Mr. Mills said in an interview. To be honest with you, I was a bit insulted by it.

The lack of relationships on Capitol Hill became a public headache in April when Mr. Trump rolled out what eventually became 10 Florida House Republican endorsements during Mr. DeSantiss trip to Washington.

Donors who contributed to Mr. DeSantiss previous campaigns tell stories of meetings in which the candidate looked as though he would rather be anywhere else. He fiddled with his phone, showed no interest in his hosts and escaped as quickly as possible. But people who have recently met with Mr. DeSantis say he has been far more engaged. At recent Wisconsin and New Hampshire events, the governor worked the room as he had rarely done before.

The governor and his team have had internal conversations acknowledging the need for him to engage in the basics of political courtship: small talk, handshaking, eye contact.

For his part, Mr. Trump recently relished hosting the Florida House Republicans who had endorsed him.

On one side of him was Mr. Mills. On the other was Mr. Donalds, who had introduced Mr. DeSantis on election night and who had been in Mr. DeSantiss orbit since helping with debate prep during Mr. DeSantiss 2018 run for governor.

Mr. Donalds declined an interview. But footage of those private debate-prep sessions, first reported by ABC News, shows Mr. DeSantis trying to formulate an answer to a question that will define his imminent 2024 run: how to disagree with Mr. Trump without appearing disagreeable to Trump supporters.

I have to frame it in a way, Mr. DeSantis said then, thats not going to piss off all his voters.

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The 2024 DeSantis Campaign Faltered Before it Even Started. What ... - The New York Times

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It may seem like crackpot Hollywood history, but, as they say, this one is inspired by true events: You can draw a straight line from the last Writers Guild of America strike in 2007 to Donald Trumps presidential election.

Put simply: If theres no WGA strike 15 years ago, Trumps reality TV stardom goes away, and because hes no longer as famous, he doesnt have a base upon which he could run for the nations highest office.

Yes, there are many factors that influence world history, but what is true is that before November 2007, Donald Trump was a fading reality TV star. But the 2007 strike gave new life to his failed The Apprentice series, which NBC had pulled from its schedule after steadily sinking ratings.

The spinoff The Celebrity Apprentice ran for seven seasons, reestablishing Trump not only as a TV celebrity but also leading millions to believe he was a successful and shrewd businessman. Trump rode the show all the way to his famous escalator campaign launch speech. In 2016, he was elected president.

Writers Guild of America members and supporters picket near the Tonight Show with Jay Leno theater at NBC studios in 2008.

(David McNew

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Getty Images)

As were currently seeing with todays strike, when the WGA declared its stoppage in 2007, production was immediately hit. Many thought the strike would be brief. It wasnt. After a few months, dozens of shows simply ran out of scripts and couldnt produce new episodes.

Steve Carell, the star of NBCs The Office, refused to cross WGA picket lines, in apparent violation of Screen Actors Guild rules saying actors were obligated to show up to work during a writers strike.

The show had filmed only eight of its 25 planned episodes before the strike; the show that followed The Office on NBCs Thursday night schedule, Scrubs, had completed 11 of 18 planned episodes.

Pretty soon, NBC had a one-hour hole to fill. And it looked in its discards for the answer an answer like reality TV, which is considered unscripted and not covered under the WGA collective bargaining agreement.

Donald Trump, his then girlfriend Melania Knauss, actor Dennis Hopper, publisher Jason Binn and actress Victoria Duffy (L-R) attend a party for "The Apprentice" on Feb. 26, 2004 at Bliss in West Hollywood.

(Amanda Edwards

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In the '90s, when Survivor creator Mark Burnett first approached Trump about taking part in a competition show about peoples business acumen, to be called The Apprentice, Trump said reality television "was for the bottom-feeders of society." He later overcame his misgivings, however, and The Apprentice premiered on NBC in January 2004. It was an immediate ratings hit.

That first season attracted more than 20 million viewers, but the audience declined steadily and sharply; by 2007, The Apprentice had lost nearly two-thirds of its viewers. Trump falsely claimed that The Apprentice was still winning its time slot in its sixth season in 2007 (some single years had multiple seasons), but NBC knew the shows popularity had waned.

In May of that year, after seeing that NBC hadnt placed The Apprentice on its fall schedule, Trump told the network he was moving on to another, unnamed TV venture before NBC could cancel the series.

NBC held out hope for another Trump partnership, and no sooner had the network and Trump parted ways that reality television producer Ben Silverman was named co-chairman for NBC Entertainment.

In July, the network, Burnett and Trump announced an Apprentice spin-off was in the works.

In The Hollywood Reporters history of the 2007-08 strike, Silverman said he wasnt sure if Trump would come back.

I came up with the idea of doing Celebrity Apprentice, Silverman said. I reached out to Mark Burnett, who said, Theres no way Donald will want to be around other celebrities. He has to be the biggest celebrity. And I said, Actually, hes going to be the biggest celebrity because hes going to be the boss. I called up Trump and he agreed.

Four months later, the WGA went on strike, chiefly over payments for shows premiering on the Internet.

Donald and Melania Trump arrive at a viewing party for "The Celebrity Apprentice" viewing party on Feb. 7, 2008 in New York City.

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Getty Images)

A general view of the atmosphere during the arrivals portion of the Academy Of Television Arts & Sciences' Evening with "The Celebrity Apprentice" on April 26, 2011 in New York City.

(Joe Corrigan

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Getty Images)

In January 2008, two months into the writers strike, The Celebrity Apprentice premiered on NBC. The ratings were half of what they had been for The Apprentice, but were good enough to keep the show on the air with Trump as its host for seven more years even after the strike ended.

It reinvigorated Trumps career, and made him both richer and even more famous. In its 2020 investigation into Trumps tax records, The New York Times reported that Trump earned some $197 million directly from The Apprentice and The Celebrity Apprentice, along with an additional $230 million [that] flowed from the fame associated with it, including Trumps earning a combined $1 million for touting Double Stuf Oreos and Dominos Pizza.

When he eventually announced that he was running for president, in 2015, the outsider candidate wasnt taken seriously by the political elite. But his name recognition and imperious Youre fired! style largely tied to his reality TV work gave him a huge advantage.

NBC ultimately canceled the show, citing his presidential bid and racist comments he made in his campaign.

In a statement at the time, NBC said: Due to the recent derogatory statements by Donald Trump regarding immigrants, NBCUniversal is ending its business relationship with Mr. Trump. At NBC, respect and dignity for all people are cornerstones of our values.

But by then Trump was a household name. He was elected president the next year.

What questions do you have about film, TV, music, or arts and entertainment?

John Horn, entertainment reporter and host of our weekly podcast Retake, explores whether the stories that Hollywood tells about itself really reflect what's going on?

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How The WGA Strike Of 2007 Brought Donald Trump To Power - LAist

WASHINGTON, D.C. (WISH) In an interview with CNN and posted to Twitter on Thursday, Indianas GOP Sen. Todd Young said he will not support Donald Trump in his presidential bid.

Young told CNNs Manu Raju I think President Trumps judgment is wrong. In this case, President Putin and his government have engaged in war crimes. I dont believe thats disputedThats why I dont intend to support him for the Republican nomination.

When asked what was the reason for Young not supporting Trump, Young replied Where do I begin?

In a CNN town hall meeting on Wednesday night, Trump did not express support for Ukraine and would not condemn Russian President Vladimir Putin as a war criminal.

Trump stated I want everybody to stop dying. He also said he didnt think of the conflict in terms of winning and losing.

Young was one of four senators to not support Trump in his 2020 re-election run, and has often been a critic of the former president, including Trumps desire to have former Vice President Mike Pence to overturn the 2020 election.

Young also said he would reserve judgement on the raid of Donald Trumps Mar-A-Lago estate.

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Indiana Senator Todd Young says he will not support Donald Trump - WISH TV Indianapolis, IN