Daily Archives: May 8, 2023

Updates with Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko's arrival in Moscow on Monday evening.

The leaders of six former Soviet republics are now expected to attend Russias annual Victory Day parade in Moscow on Tuesday, afterBelarus President Alexander Lukashenko arrived unannounced in Moscow on Monday evening for what his press service said would be a "working visit."

The President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan on Monday both confirmed their participation in the flagship event on Red Square, while Tajik President Emomali Rahmon and Uzbek leader Shavkat Mirziyoyev both commenced two-day visits to Russia on the same day.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will also be joined on Red Square by Kyrgyzstans President Sadyr Japarov the only foreign leader to have given advance confirmation of his participation in the flagship parade.

The six foreign leaders will join Russian President Vladimir Putin on the tribune above Lenin's Mausoleum on Red Square from where they will watch a procession of as many as 125 military vehicles and 10,000 personnel through Moscow's central square.

Russias Victory Day celebrations on Tuesday will mark the 78th anniversary of the Soviet Unions defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II.

Though Victory Day celebrations have long been used by the Kremlin to showcase Russias military might and to boost patriotic feelings among its citizens, this years celebrations which will take place against a background of increased aerial attacks on Russian territory may see some of the most modestVictory celebrations to date.

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Leaders of Six Former Soviet Republics to Join Putin on Victory Day - The Moscow Times

Russia

Paranoia following the drone attacks on the Kremlin and a weakened military dog the event Putin views as deeply symbolic

When Vladimir Putin takes to the stage on Tuesday to commemorate the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany, his speech on Red Square will have been preceded by a turbulent week in which drones attacked the Kremlin and one of his top war leaders threatened mutiny.

The dramatic footage early last Wednesday of two drones flying over the walls of the Kremlin, its historical seat of power, exposed vulnerabilities in the heart of the Russian capital, putting Moscow on edge.

The authorities have banned the use of drones and started jamming GPS signals, leading to taxis appearing to be in the Moscow River on ride-hailing apps. Binoculars have hastily been handed out to police to spot incoming drones.

There is a nervousness that I have never seen before, said one official at the Moscow mayors office. But Victory Day has to go ahead, there is no other option, he added, speaking on conditions of anonymity.

Tellingly, on Friday, Putin took the unusual step to discuss the preparations for the 9 May Victory Day parade in a meeting with his security council, composed of Russias top state officials and heads of defence and security agencies.

Even before the drone attack on the Kremlin, there were signs of unease among the Russian leadership over the celebrations amid fears of Ukrainian strikes.

At least six Russian regions had scrapped the celebrations, with one region 400 miles from the border being the latest to cancel.

Victory Day, when Russians celebrate the 1945 endpoint of what they call the great patriotic war, has gradually emerged as the centrepiece of Vladimir Putins vision of Russian identity over his 23 years in charge.

The carefully orchestrated victory parades that take place across the country traditionally present the Kremlin with an opportunity to flaunt modern Russian military might.

For Putin, it is by far the most important event of the year, said Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, based in Moscow.

Putin derives his whole legitimacy from the parade, framing himself as the direct successor of the army that defeated Nazi Germany.

Given this importance to the Kremlin, the parade in Moscow will go ahead, Kolesnikov said.

This is also Putins chance to show to the nation that he is still strong and in control of the so-called special military operation in Ukraine, Kolesnikov added.

But on the eve of 9 May, Russia looks far from triumphing in a war it initially expected to last a few weeks.

Moscows winter and spring offensive across a 160-mile arc in eastern Ukraine, which started in February, has brought the country minimal gains at staggering costs.

Western officials have estimated that more than 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in fighting in Ukraine since December alone.

Ukraine, backed by modern western weapons, will soon launch its own much anticipated counteroffensive to recapture lost territory.

To add to the worries in the Kremlin, mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday recorded a remarkable expletive-ridden video personally blaming the top defence chiefs for losses suffered by fighters in Ukraine. In a separate message, Prigozhin also said his Wagner troops will leave the besieged eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on 10 May, the day after the Victory Parade takes place.

In the cities where the parades will go ahead, experts say a close read of the celebrations is likely to show the strain and damage the war has afflicted on the military.

Most of the military parades will only have conscripts marching because all the contract soldiers are in Ukraine, said Dara Massicot, a senior policy researcher at the Rand Corporation.

With so much of the ground forces engaged in Ukraine, some regions will be forced to get creative and have military instructors and other personnel play a more prominent role to give the appearance of normality, Massicot added.

One of 9 Mays most recognisable events, the Immortal Regiment march a solemn procession of people with portraits of their second world war veteran relatives has also been scrapped this year.

One explanation for such a move, Massicot said, is that the authorities worry the procession could end up highlighting the real number of Russian losses in Ukraine, with relatives bringing the portraits of those killed in the current war.

Kolesnikov said that on Tuesday, Putin is likely to draw historical parallels between the two wars, falsely framing Ukraine as a successor to Nazi Germany.

During last years Victory Parade speech, he claimed the Russian army was fighting in Ukraine so that there is no place in the world for butchers, murderers and Nazis.

Victory will be ours, like in 1945, Putin proclaimed at the time.

A museum in central Moscow dedicated to the second world war has since opened an immersive exhibition that portrays the war in Ukraine alongside the victory over Nazi Germany.

But despite the Kremlins efforts to frame the war as an existential battle for the countrys survival, there are signs that some in the country remain unwilling to sacrifice their own wellbeing for what the Kremlin claims to be the greater cause.

According to the latest survey by the independent Levada pollster,most Russians are unwilling to contribute 1,000-2,000 rubles per month (10-20) to help the needs of soldiers in Ukraine.

The same poll showed that anxiety and fear were emotions most often listed when respondents were asked about the new electronic conscription law that makes it harder for young men to dodge the draft by automatically banning registered conscripts from leaving the country.

The nation has adapted to the realities of the war, Kolesnikov said.

But that does not mean people are willing to sacrifice everything. If there is an opportunity to stay on the sidelines, they will happily take it.

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A nervousness never seen before hits Moscow before Victory Day parades - The Guardian

Opinion

With even nationalist pro-war bloggers criticising Putins actions in Ukraine, his desperation and paranoia are growing

May is traditionally a month for public celebration in Russia, with massive public processions on 1 May for Labour Day and military parades on 9 May for Victory Day, a holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. Not so in 2023. Russias biggest trade union cancelled its traditional Labour Day demonstrations because of the heightened risk of terrorist activity, while regions near the Ukrainian border called off Victory Day parades so as to not provoke the Ukrainian army.

The Russian government has warned people across the country to stay away from military installations on Victory Day, while the hugely popular Immortal Regiment, an event during which ordinary citizens all over Russia march with portraits of relatives who died in the second world war, has been moved online.

Allegedly the terrorist threat comes from Ukraine Russian media reported on 24 April that a downed Ukrainian drone was found 30km (20 miles) from Moscow but it seems difficult to accept that Russias air defences cannot guarantee the safety of Moscows skies during the countrys biggest patriotic celebration of the year, particularly at a time when Putin has been stoking Russian nationalist feelings to garner support for his war in Ukraine.

A Ukrainian drone attack on Red Square during the Victory Day military parade would be humiliating for Putin, but it seems more likely that hes worried about the potential humiliation of thousands of civilians marching with the portraits of sons and husbands fallen in Ukraine. While official Russian figures have pointed to fewer than 6,000 military casualties in Ukraine, Ukraine claims approximately 150,000 Russian military personnel have been killed. Even conservative western estimates hover around the 60,000 mark more than triple the 15,000 Soviet troops killed in the 10-year Afghan war.

Labour Day parades come with their own risk. In spite of the cancellation of official events, on 1 May a few small sporadic gatherings took place in cities all over Russia, to which some people turned up with anti-war banners. In St Petersburg a man was arrested for carrying a board with the traditional May Day slogan of Peace, Work, May, with an added Z symbol with a red mark across it. In Ekaterinburg a woman was reportedly detained with a banner inscribed with another traditional May Day slogan, Peace to the World.

The banning of public events during the May holidays is less likely to be out of concern for citizens safety, and more to do with Putins paranoid obsession with shutting down any channel for criticism of his war, even if open support for Ukraine is tiny and the threat of a popular uprising very remote.

At the same time that public protest is being pre-emptively suppressed, dissent and conflict continues to grow in military circles. In a 90-minute interview with a military blogger on 29 April, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the de facto leader of the Wagner private military company, bemoaned the catastrophic state of the Russian army, and said that the time has come when we have to stop lying to the population of the Russian Federation saying that everything is OK. He sarcastically called the war in Ukraine the so-called special military operation, in a veiled criticism of Putins ban on the use of the word war to describe events in Ukraine. Prigozhin also criticised the defence ministry for withholding ammunition and threatened to withdraw his men from the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, which Russia has been trying to take for nine months.

Conflicts are not only surfacing between Russias private armies and the defence ministry, but among private armies themselves. On 25 April, soldiers from Gazproms private army, Potok, sent a video to Putin complaining that they had been transferred to a different private army (Redut) and then threatened by soldiers of the Wagner group, who said they would shoot them if they retreated from their positions. In early April, mobilised soldiers from the regular army in the Luhansk region (in Russian-occupied Ukraine) disappeared, after telling relatives that they had been sold to the Wagner group by their commander. When Prigozhin denounces the catastrophic state of the Russian army, he knows what he is talking about.

Russian nationalist pro-war military bloggers also criticise Putin. The most well-known of these is Igor Girkin (AKA Strelkov), who openly condemns Putins lack of resolve to use Russias full military might in Ukraine, and wages a simultaneous battle of words for now with Prigozhin. On 2 April, when another notorious military blogger, Vladlen Tatarsky, was assassinated in a bomb attack in a St Petersburg cafe formerly owned by Prigozhin, the Russian government blamed Ukrainian terrorists. Prigozhin stated that the attack was probably caused by infighting among what he calls Russian radicals.

Putin has not reacted publicly to any of the military bloggers or private armies all armed and violent men who criticise the way the war is being fought. But walking around with a cardboard sign calling for peace can lead to temporary arrest, and being an anti-war intellectual carries the risk of a 25-year prison sentence.

Russia is not on the verge of a popular revolution, but Putin still feels threatened enough by public anti-war protests to crack down at the first sign of peaceful civil dissent. This betrays a fundamental fear of showing any weakness that his armed critics could exploit. The main message here is clear: if you want to be safe in todays Russia, carry a gun. Better still, create a private army. This will increase your chances of survival the day the strongman falls.

This article was amended on 2 and 3 May 2023. Due to a translation error, an earlier version said that a woman was reportedly detained with a banner inscribed with a traditional May Day slogan, Peace to Peace. This should have said Peace to the World. The man arrested in St Petersburg was not 76 but taken to police station No 76.

Samantha de Bendern is an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House and a political commentator on LCI television in France

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Putin claims hes cancelling public celebrations over safety fears. The truth is more humiliating - The Guardian

Both armies have tanks, artillery and tens of thousands of soldiers ready to face off on the battlefields of Ukraine in a long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia. But one thing clearly sets the two sides apart: time.

Ukraine is feeling immense short-term pressures from its Western backers, as the United States and its allies treat the counteroffensive as a critical test of whether the weapons, training and ammunition they have rushed to the country in recent months can translate into significant gains.

If the Ukrainians fall short of expectations, they risk an erosion of Western support. It is a source of anxiety for top officials in Kyiv, who know that beyond battlefield muscle and ingenuity, victory may ultimately come down to a test of wills between the Kremlin and the West and which side can muster more political, economic and industrial staying power, possibly for years.

As a result, there is a sense in Ukraine that its war effort faces a ticking clock.

In countries that are our partners, our friends, the expectation of the counteroffensive is overestimated, overheated, I would say, Ukraines defense minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, said in an interview this past week in Kyiv, the capital. That is my main concern.

The expectations of military success are only one pressure point for Ukraine. A presidential election in the United States looms next year, with the potential for a new, less supportive Republican administration.

In Russia, President Vladimir V. Putin faces his own challenges but is showing signs of operating on a much longer timeline, encumbered by economic and military limitations but free from the domestic political pressures that make continuing Western support for Ukraine so uncertain.

Having already mobilized some 300,000 recruits last September, Mr. Putin is laying the groundwork for a possible new round of conscription, having changed the law so Russian authorities can draft men by serving them with a digital summons online.

In private conversations, his defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, has professed a willingness to dig in for the long haul, vowing to carry out more mobilizations if necessary and emphasizing that Russia is capable of conscripting as many as 25 million fighting-age men, a senior European official said.

Russias economy is under increasing strain, and its defense sector, like the Wests, is struggling to provide enough matriel for the front. There are signs of simmering anxiety over the Ukrainian counteroffensive. On Friday, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, castigated Russian military leadership over a lack of ammunition and threatened to pull his forces from the fighting in the embattled city of Bakhmut within days.

But Mr. Putin has defined the war effort as a top priority and vital national interest, telling Russians in a New Years address that we must only fight, only keep going against Western democracies intent on Russias destruction.

Certainly I think there is a calculation in the Kremlin that Russia is more resilient than the West, said Thomas E. Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who served as senior director for Russia on the National Security Council from 2004 to 2007.

They do think about these electoral cycles, Mr. Graham said. Who knows what is going to happen in 2024 in the United States? Its not clear where the American people are on this over the long run. I think the Kremlin and Putin do believe that in that sense, time is on their side.

Ukraines leaders, on the jittery doorstep of the counteroffensive, have been making a point of projecting confidence but not too much.

If they appear too ambitious, they could stir fears that Russia could respond with a tactical nuclear strike. Appear too modest, in contrast, and criticism arises that billions of dollars in military aid to Ukraine has been spent in vain.

Ukrainian officials point to the considerable successes they have already achieved: forcing the Russian military to retreat from Kyiv last year; sinking the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, the Moskva; and recapturing thousands of square miles of territory in two counterattacks last fall.

After that, the world is ready to see the next stage of this competition, if we can use a sports metaphor, Mr. Reznikov said.

We have a lot of supporters of Ukraine cheering for us, he said. That is why they are waiting for the next match. But for us, its not a sports game. For us, its a serious challenge. For us, its the lives of our soldiers.

He said the operation must be viewed as part of a larger whole.

For me, every success during this war becomes a new stage, a new step, on the road to victory, Mr. Reznikov said. The counteroffensive, he said, will be just one story in the war.

Military analysts have pointed to a likely period of probing assaults, feints and long-range strikes in the opening phase of the attack. Degrading the Russian militarys combat abilities will be as important as liberating territory, Mr. Reznikov said.

The Ukrainians see their enemy as having expended its offensive ability and as eager for a pause in fighting that could buy time to rearm and attack again.

Despite Ukraines worries about waning Western support, its allies have so far remained resolute, pledging hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons and aid, training Ukrainian soldiers, imposing sanctions and, to varying degrees, weaning their economies off Russian energy. NATOs secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said the alliance must brace itself to back Ukraine over a long war, and has singled out a summit planned for July in Lithuania as a moment to formalize that commitment.

In Washington, President Biden has pledged to support Kyiv for as long as it takes, and could request an additional supplemental aid package for Ukraine later this year, regardless of the counteroffensives outcome. Administration officials expect to retain bipartisan congressional support.

But Mr. Biden is heading into a presidential election cycle that could upend U.S. backing for Ukraine, particularly if Americans elect former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican front-runner. Mr. Trump has criticized Mr. Bidens support for Ukrainian forces, saying in an interview this year with Fox News that ultimately, Mr. Putin is going to take over all of Ukraine.

In Ukraine, we understand we have a shortage of time as well as ammunition, Volodymyr Ariev, a member of Parliament in the European Solidarity Party, said in an interview. Financial aid of the European Union and G7 seems not to be endless.

In countries like Syria and Libya, Mr. Putin for years has exploited the tendency of Western governments to lose focus or shift priorities when it comes to foreign affairs.

Russias hope right now is that the peak of Western military support is going to be around the summer, and then will dissipate, said Michael Kofman, the director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute in Virginia.

Already, the war has stretched for more than 14 months, making a yearslong protracted conflict more likely. Once wars have gone on for more than a year, they tend to last for more than a decade on average, the Center for Strategic and International Studies found in an analysis that used data on conflicts since 1946.

Mr. Putin has little incentive to end the war now, unless his hand is forced, because its continuation helps him retain power, said Andrea Kendall-Taylor, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a former deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia. Any negotiations after a military defeat would look like capitulation and make him more vulnerable at home, she said.

Even if Ukraine is wildly successful in its upcoming counteroffensive, he is not going to be forced into some negotiated settlement, Ms. Kendall-Taylor said. Instead, he has every incentive to fight through the challenges.

The only exception is if Mr. Putin can come away from negotiations with something he can sell back home as enough of a victory, she said.

Only 7 percent of authoritarian leaders with governments like Russias have found themselves unseated during a conflict that began on their watch, Ms. Kendall-Taylor found in an analysis of conflicts since 1919, which she conducted with the political scientist Erica Frantz.

Leaders, when they initiate the war, they are rarely ousted so long as the war continues, Ms. Kendall-Taylor said.

Some analysts believe Mr. Putins calculation could change if the Ukrainian counteroffensive manages to threaten Crimea.

In polls, the only thing the Russian public was not willing to negotiate over was the status of Crimea, said Max Bergmann, the director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. If Crimea is being bombarded, then its a failure. I think that would change things, potentially.

Mr. Putin is also likely facing pressures that remain opaque to the outside world. In an authoritarian system, threats to the stability of a government often prove unpredictable.

Mr. Graham, the Council on Foreign Relations distinguished fellow, said Mr. Putin has security, business and political elites he still must keep on his side, noting that its wrong to assume that Putin can just do anything he wants to at this point.

There are institutions of power and centers of power, he added, that you have to manage, control and dominate in some way if youre going to stay in the game.

Adam Entous contributed reporting.

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Ukraine Faces Pressure Over Counteroffensive, as Putin Bides His Time - The New York Times

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa A U.S.-sanctioned Russian oligarch is accused of making shady deals under sunny skies with South African politicians, the reported real reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin could evade arrest should he make a planned trip to South Africa in August.

OligarchViktor Vekselberg, said to be close to Putin, has been accused of repeatedly bankrolling South Africas ruling ANC political party. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, also president of the ANC, has so far failed to undertake efforts to arrest the Russian leader should he make the planned trip. Ramaphosas government has repeatedly refrained at the U.N. from criticizing Russias invasion of Ukraine, saying it is "friends" with Moscow.

U.S. relations with South Africa are hanging by a thread. Its a diplomatic mess of epic proportions. The International Criminal Court (ICC) sparked fury by demanding that countries who are signatories to the court, including South Africa,arrest Putin should he touch their soil, accusing him of war crimes against Ukrainian children.

South Africa has invited Putin to attend a summit here of the BRICS group of nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. So far, the government has not canceled the invite but has given reasons why it believes it doesn't need to arrest him, suggesting there is a loophole in the ICCs rules.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, greets South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a welcoming ceremony at the Russia-Africa Summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Oct. 23, 2019. (Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images)

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT ISSUES PUTIN ARREST WARRANT OVER CHILD DEPORTATIONS FROM UKRAINE

And precedent shows that, if its left to the government alone, Putin can extend his middle finger to the West by walking about in South Africa as free as a bird. Its happened before here in disturbingly similar circumstances. In 2015, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. But he was allowed to visit South Africa for several days and even given a large motorcade escort by the very police who, according to the law, shouldreportedly have arrested him.

Fox News Digital asked the U.S. State Department whether Putin should be arrested in Africa.

"There is no doubt that members of Russias forces and other Russian officials are committing war crimes and other atrocities in Ukraine, and we have been clear that those responsible must be held accountable," a State Department spokesperson said. "We support accountability for perpetrators of war crimes."

The view outside the International Criminal Court March 29, 2022, in Den Haag, Netherlands. (Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images)

South Africas Justice Minister Ronald Lamola told the local Business Day his police may not arrest Putin. Instead, they are exploring "the option to look at extending customary diplomatic immunity to visiting heads of state in our country."

Officially, South Africa has still not committed to an arrest.

"Cabinet has appointed an inter-ministerial committee chaired by the deputy president to discuss the legal opinion provided on the matter and propose a way forward," Clayson Monyela, the Department of International Relations head of public diplomacy told Fox News Digital.

Monyela further said reports in some international media that South Africa is quietly trying to persuade Putin not to visit are not the correct "line."

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the 14th BRICS Summit via video link in Beijing June 23, 2022. (Rao Aimin/Xinhua via Getty Images)

NEW WORLD DISORDER: CHINA, RUSSIA BLOC SHORES UP INFLUENCE AS COUNTRIES EAGER TO JOIN, INCLUDING US ALLIES

"There is absolutely no legal basis (currently or in the near future) for the South African government tonotarrest Putin," Priyal Singh, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told Fox News Digital from Pretoria.

"As a party to the Rome Statute, Pretoria has a clear-cut international obligation to abide by its commitments and to effect the arrest," Singh added. "Moreover, as a country that has domesticated these obligations in terms of our national legislation, the government would effectively be breaking its own laws if it did not follow through with the arrest."

South Africas main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, or DA, is considering looking to the courts to force the issue. Itis "in the process of exploring all potential legal options to ensure South Africas compliance with the ICC Implementation Act, should Putin physically visit the country in August," Emma Louise Powell, the DAs shadow minister for international relations, told Fox News Digital.

Displaced Ukrainians on a Poland-bound train bid farewell in Lviv, western Ukraine, March 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Bernat Armangue)

In addition, Alan Winde, premier of the DA-controlled Western Cape plans to use the regional police under his control to arrest Putin at Cape Town International Airport should he arrive there.

"If the Russian leader sets foot in the Western Cape, we as the provincial government will have him arrested by our own Western Cape government-funded Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (LEAP) officers," Winde saidin a statement late last month. "If the South African Police Service is not instructed to act, we will."

This fighting talk has drawn the admiration ofSen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, the leading Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

"Its good to see some leaders in South Africa speaking openly and without ambiguity about Putins visit to their country," Risch tweeted. "This kind of honest government leadership is desperately needed to build the U.S.-South Africa relationship."

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa answers questions about the BRICS partnership during a media briefing in Cape Town, South Africa, June 10, 2022. (Xabiso Mkhabela/Xinhua via Getty Images)

RUSSIA 'CHIEF BENEFICIARY' IN DEADLY SUDAN CONFLICT AS ATTEMPTED CEASEFIRE FALLS APART

But this enthusiasm is not shared bySouth Africa International Relations Minister Naledi Pandor. She ridiculed any attempt to carry out an arrest, suggesting it could spark conflict.

"Heads of state do not come to any country without security support," she told Newzroom Afrika. "The notion that security forces would let South African police pop up and take their president, I think we mustnt make ourselves laughable".

So why is South Africa clearly reluctant to act over Putin?

"To understand South Africas relationship with Russia, you have to understand its Cold War history. Russia was anti-apartheid before it was fashionable in the United States,"Cameron Hudson told Fox News Digital.

Hudson is formerly a CIA officer and director of African affairs at the National Security Council during President George W. Bush's administration. He is now a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies Africa Program.

"Moscow hosted leading figures in the African National Congress for training and education and supported them with funds," Hudson added.

"But those ties are fraying. The previous presidency of Jacob Zuma moved South Africa much closer to Moscow and, in the process, also weakened democratic institutions in South Africa and saw a corruption spike. Given the countrys economic slide, corrupt deals of the kind Moscow has become associated with in South Africa are of decidedly bad odor."

The DAs Powell added, "The African National Congress and its senior members have long been suspected of having financial interests with the Russian oligarchy that they may now be seeking to protect at the expense of the countrys domestic interests and obligations under international law."

Cemetery workers work at a mass grave in Bucha on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, to identify civilians killed during the war against Russia April 10, 2022. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)

TWO CHARGED WITH EVADING US SANCTIONS TO HELP RUSSIAN OLIGARCH PROTECT $90 MILLION YACHT

Sanctioned Russian oligarchs mysteriously have Ramaphosas support, at least when it comes to allowing their megayachts to dock at South African ports despite U.S. requests to seize them.

"South Africa has no legal obligation to abide by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and E.U.," Ramaphosas spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, told reporters, referring to a proposal to dockRussian oligarch Alexey Mordashovs $500 million megayacht "Nord" in Cape Town.

The Nord superyacht in Hong Kong Oct. 14, 2022. (Lam Yik/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Another sanctioned oligarch, Viktor Vekselberg, helped out Ramaphosas cash-strapped ANC by funding its party conference late last year through his company to the tune of some $826,000, according to recently released information from South Africas electoral commission, the IEC.

Its not the first time Vekselberg has reportedly channeled funds to South Africas ruling party. United Manganese, the local mine he owns 49% of, donated over $400,000 to the ANC in 2020, according to James Lorimer, the DAs shadow minister of mineral resources.

Economically, the DAs Powell believes South Africas position on Russia makes no sense.

"Despite Russia accounting for as little as 0.3% of South Africas trade ties, the ANC is willing to disregard South Africas crucial domestic interests in order to protect an alleged war criminal and shore up further political patronage with Moscow" she told Fox News Digital.

"To put this into perspective, South Africa does less trade with Russia than it does with one of its most under-developed neighboring countries."

The U.S.'s biggest trading partner in Africa is South Africa. Sources say the U.S. is frustrated, particularly by the Putin arrest saga, and may choose to drop South Africa from the AGOA trade agreement, where Washington gives products ranging from oranges to cars duty-free status on sale into the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks with Skolkovo Foundation President Viktor Vekselberg during his visit to the National Children's Sports and Health Centre in Sochi Oct. 11, 2014. (Alexy Nikolsky/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)

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"South Africa-U.S. trade relations could be seriously undermined if Pretoria does not carefully manage its relations with Washington and Moscow," said the ISSs Singh.

Gustavo de Carvalho, senior researcher, African governance and diplomacy, at the South African Institute of International Affairs, told Fox News Digital he is concerned about the countrys current position over Russia.

"As national elections approach in 2024, this delicate matter could significantly impact the nation's political trajectory and its relationships with key international partners," Carvalho said.

"The United States should exercise caution in addressing this situation, as stringent measures could push South Africa further away and create a ripple effect among other Global South nations."

Fox News Digital reached out to the ANC for comment but has not received a response.

Read more:

Putin poses arrest dilemma as South African opposition says if Russian-friendly government won't act, it will - Fox News

Ukraine wants to see Russian dictator Putin on the dock in The Hague for war crimes committed by the Russian army

The poll, conducted by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives foundation and the Razumkov Center think tank at the end of March found that 82.2% of respondents strongly agreed that Putin was todays Hitler, while 11.8% rather agree.

Read also: Over 60% of Ukrainians think Ukraine should try to liberate all territories, including Crimea poll

Only slightly more than 1% of Ukrainians do not consider Putin a modern-day Hitler at all.

The respondents also named the war crimes committed by Russia since the beginning of the full-scale war that were most memorable. Among them are the shootings and torture of Bucha residents by the Russian military, the massacre of civilians in Mariupol and the airstrike on the Drama Theater, as well as the killing of captured Ukrainian soldiers in Olenivka.

Read also: Poll reveals 65% of Europeans support sanctions against Russia and arms supply to Ukraine

Sociologists note that many other war crimes of the Russian troops that will forever remain in the collective memory of Ukrainians are also associated with the deliberate killing of civilians as a result of missile attacks, indiscriminate shelling of frontline cities, and torture of residents of the occupied territories.

When asked which events the respondents associate with grief and despair, most people mentioned the consequences of Russia's war crimes.

Some 24% of Ukrainians called the death of people the most traumatic event during the war. Another 22% also associate despair and grief with bombings and missile attacks, and 16% mention massacres and mass murders of the population in the occupied territories of Ukraine.

The survey was conducted from March 23-30. A total of 2,017 people were interviewed in person in all oblasts of Ukraine, except for the occupied territories of Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhya, Kherson, and those where active hostilities are taking place.

Read also: Poll reveals over 80% of Ukrainians support joining NATO

Story continues

The polls margin of statistical error does not exceed 2.3%.

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Poll reveals over 90% of Ukrainians view Russian dictator Putin as modern Hitler - Yahoo News

Russian President Vladimir Putins brutal invasion of Ukraine has passed the 14-month mark, with no resolution in sight. It also has come with a potent, unintended consequence.

It has made the world forget about North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

Western powers have been justifiably preoccupied with Ukraines eastern Donbas region, where Russian and Ukrainian troops have been locked in a war of attrition reminiscent of World War I trench warfare. In the meantime, however, the North Korean Communist regime has been hard at work stepping up its nuclear arsenal in both technological advancement and inventory.

North Korea launched at least 95 ballistic and other missiles in 2022, the most Pyongyang has tested in the countrys history, according to The New York Times. This year, the pace hasnt let up. As of April 13, North Korea had conducted at least 12 missile tests, Time magazine reported.

Kims nuclear arsenal includes short-range capability that can threaten the assets of the U.S. and its allies in the region. North Korea also has successfully tested a long-range, intercontinental ballistic missile with solid fuel technology. Those missiles do not have to go through an hourslong fueling process before the launch, and thus can be fired within minutes. That makes the weapon harder to detect and bring down preemptively.

North Korea and Kims regime were foremost on the minds of President Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, as they met in Washington last week. That meeting yielded an agreement between the two countries in which South Korea will play an integral part in U.S. strategic planning for deployment of nuclear weapons against North Korea in any conflict with Pyongyang, while Seoul also agrees to not develop its own nuclear weapons capability.

To put an exclamation point on the pact, the U.S. is dispatching a nuclear ballistic missile submarine to South Korea for a visit.

Given how much headway Kim has made in beefing up his nuclear weapons capability, the agreement, dubbed Washington Declaration, should have happened sooner. Nevertheless, its an important step toward firewalling South Korea and other U.S. allies in the region from the reckless belligerence of the North Korean regime.

Moving forward, the lesson for Biden and other Western leaders: Do not treat North Korea as some back-burner priority.

For decades, American presidents have floundered in crafting the right foreign policy approach toward Pyongyang. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush tried bargaining with North Korea but failed to steer it away from nuclear weapons pursuit. President Barack Obama took the tack of strategic patience, a policy of imposing isolation and sanctions on Pyongyang until it acquiesced. That didnt work isolation is a defining characteristic of North Koreas existence.

Donald Trump turned American foreign policy toward North Korea into a global laughingstock. He swooned over Kim, becoming the first U.S. president to ever meet a North Korean head of state, afterward proclaiming nonsensically in a tweet, There is no longer a nuclear threat from North Korea. Two more meetings between Trump and Kim followed, and all the while, North Korea kept testing and ramping up its nuclear and missile capabilities.

Biden hasnt had any success either. But accepting the reality that Kim has tied his regimes survival to nuclear weapons expansion and that the North Korean leaders arsenal is fast becoming a pressing, worrisome threat is crucial for the Biden administration. The agreements made with Yoon reflect that understanding.

That realization should have happened years ago. After John Bolton departed as Trumps national security adviser, he told NPR that any policy aimed at cajoling Pyongyang into relinquishing its nuclear program amounted to wishful thinking.

Putin and Kim are very different leaders, but they have similarities even beyond their bellicosity and nuclear arsenals. They understand the value of playing for time, and they rely heavily on brinkmanship to achieve their aims. Putin remains an urgent, dangerous foe for the U.S. and its allies.

But it would be a grave mistake for the West to underestimate the threat Kim poses.

Ukraine is and must be a top-shelf priority for U.S. foreign policy. But so should North Korea.

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Another View: Focus on Putin, but don't forget the danger of Kim ... - Press Herald

In the Russian calendar 9 May holds near-religious significance. Celebrating the Sovietvictory over Nazi Germany at the end of theSecondWorldWar, the occasion is considered Russias biggest patriotic celebration of the year.

Last year, following the invasion of Ukraine, the holiday took on a jingoistic significance for the Kremlin as Putin stoked up nationalist fervour to legitimise his war. This years celebrations, however, are shaping up to be a muted affair.More than 20 cities across Russia have cancelled their Victory Day parades. Marches of the Immortal Regiment, during which ordinary peopleparadethrough the streets carrying portraits of relatives who served and died during the war, as well as in the Afghan and Chechen wars, have been moved online.For now,despite an alleged drone attack on the Kremlin on 3 May, the one in Moscow is still scheduled to go ahead tomorrow. But outside the capital, the celebrations are being scaled back.

Whoever was to blame, the Kremlin drone attack provides convenient justification for scaling back tomorrows celebrations

TheKremlinhas suggestedheightened security concernsare to blame.Over the past few months, several instances of suspicious drone activity have been reported in the vicinity of Moscow, including one incident that forced the temporary closure of Vnukovo airport on the outskirts of the city.

Sincethe beginning of the year, an increasing number of acts of sabotage, allegedly with the help of drones, have taken place across Russia and Ukrainian territory it has occupied.Last Saturday, a huge arson attack on a fuel depot in Crimea was, the Russians said, carried out using a drone. While the Russians have claimed the drones in these instances are Ukrainian ones, scoping out strategic Russian targets, who truly is behind themand what their motivations arehas been difficult to independently verify. Whoever was to blame, the drone attack on the Kremlin provides convenient justification for scaling back tomorrows celebrations.However, even before this incident, there have been signs that the Kremlin had been steadily tightening security around the big day.

On 27 April, Red Square, the focal point of Moscows Victory Day parade, was closed for the ten days leading up to the celebration in connection with the preparation and holding of solemn events.Such a move washighly unusual: in the 77 years that the event has been held, the square has only been shut in advance a handful of times, and never for so long. Last year,it was closed for a week ahead of 9 May, while the only other times it has beensht offin recent memory was for several days in both 2018 and 2019.

Might there be another reason, other than security fears, forscaling back the celebrations?Reducing and cancelling Victory Day processions across the countrycouldconveniently save Putin from certain embarrassment: the sight of relatives taking part in Immortal Regiments carrying the photographs of relatives killed in Ukraine would be humiliating, not least because the Kremlin refuses to acknowledge the scale of Russias losses.

The last figure it gave for deaths in Ukraine was just under 6,000 in September 2022; by some estimates the true numbers stand at approximately 30 timesmorethan that,at 180,000 casualties, if not higher. Moving the Immortal Regiments online makes it easier for Putin to avoid the uncomfortable truth about the reality of the war he has dragged Russia into and the difficult questions they would expose him to.

Another key part of the Victory Day parade is the procession of serving military personnel, weapons and military equipment into Red Square. With reports that Russia is struggling to replenish its stockpile of weapons used in Ukraine, some experts have speculated that in toning down the celebrations on 9 May, the Kremlin is trying to avoid drawing attention to the amount of military equipment they have lost on the front line.

Whatever the truth about why he has scaled back the festivities,Putin never misses an opportunity for repression.

Last week, reports have emerged of FSB officers searching the homes of the few prominent anti-Kremlin activists still living in Moscow. One such activist, Alexei Minyailo, claimed that the FSB raided his flat in the early hours of 3 May, ostensibly in connection with the murder of the pro-Kremlin military blogger Vladlen Tatarsky in St Petersburg last month. During the raid, one officer allegedly said to him that before 9 May they were paying everyone associated with the FBK [Alexei Navalnys Anti-Corruption Foundation] a visit.

The FSB reportedly alsorecentlypaid a visit to the home of another well-known activist, Alexandr Kazitsyn, on the same day. Afterconfiscating his phone and laptop,the security servicesdetained him for 15 days.These men almost pose no credible threat towards the Kremlin.Butsuchheavy-handed treatment towards them serves to stoke fear amongst Russians who might otherwise be considering some form of protest at celebrations tomorrow.Inconjuring up a sense of paranoia,it alsomakes the state look proactive in trying to combat this terror threat.

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Following Wednesdays drone attack on the Kremlin, which the Russian government has slammed as an assassination attempt on Putin, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that the Russian president still planned to attend Moscows Victory Day celebrations and give a speech. He also confirmed that security would be ramped up further in preparation.

Victory Day in Russia is usually a bombastic, proud and nationalistic celebration. In the face of an excruciating war in Ukraine that seems far from ending any time soon, much has changed since last years jingoistic event.

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Is Putin scared of a Victory Day attack? - The Spectator

Sergey Lavrov is one of the most visible faces of Russias war against Ukraine. Here he is sitting at the famous round table in the room where the UN Security Council meets. Next to him is UN Secretary-General Antnio Guterres.

The Kyiv regime implemented the theory and practice of Nazism legislatively and in everyday life. Without embarrassment, they organized pompous torchlight processions in the center of Kyiv and other cities under the banner of SS divisions. Other members of the Security Council are watching Lavrov read from a piece of paper. The West was silent and rubbed its hands.

These words have nothing to do with reality. Ukraines ultra-right lost both the 2014 and the 2019 parliamentary elections. But the U.S. ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, listens. No one interrupts the speaker from Russia. He goes on, describing how vile Americans deliberately developed Nazism in Ukraine, how in 1999 Americans had bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and in the closing days of World War II had attacked Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Its spring 2023 right now, and another Russian army strike targeting apartment blocks in the Ukrainian city of Uman takes the lives of at least thirteen people. A thirty-one-year-old woman and her two-year-old child die in strikes on the city of Dnipro. Sergey Lavrov has nothing to say about those incidents.

Lavrovs ChoiceOnce upon a time, long before the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Lavrov was considered an ambiguous figure, a Moscow intellectual with a good, specialized education and a true understanding of the role of a diplomat. Even his opponents in Washington treated Lavrov with respect. He would appear in the room, and it was immediately clear that a professional had enteredthis is what they said about the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

But Vladimir Putin does not need such a figure. It is difficult to say at what specific moment Sergey Lavrov was offered a choice. Or, quite possibly, this choice was made by default, without any discussion. Anyway, at some pointwhen it became an obvious crime to remain in power, when excuses of any kind stopped workingLavrov remained in power. And he dived into a campaign of promoting the massacre of citizens of a neighboring state.

Unlike many, Sergey Lavrov should understand well what is happening. A professional with many years of experience, with connections, and in constant communication with people outside the Kremlin circle, he knows that NATO was not preparing an attack on Russia. He is aware there were no plans to accept Ukraine into NATO in the foreseeable future. Lavrov also knows there was no genocide in Donbas before the start of the full-scale war. Of course, he is aware that it was his boss who attacked a neighbor. The greater the responsibility of Sergey Lavrov, the more cynical his statements become. A variety of Western sanctions have been imposed on the Russian foreign minister.

Is Russias Position on the UN Security Council All That Permanent?And now this same minister arrives in the United States of America, which induces a dizzying sense of madness. Sergey Lavrov chairs the UN Security Council. He has the right to. The Russian Federation is one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. It rose to the chairmanship simply because this is how the system works: the palm passes from one country to another in alphabetical order, and now it has come to Russia. Until the end of April, Moscow sets the agenda.

For Lavrov, preservation of this structure with all its 35,000 employees, its skyscraper on First Avenue, and the tedious flights across the Atlantic, is fundamental. The UN is one of the few international platforms where Russia is not denied access. Moreover, it is legally impossible to exclude Moscow from the Security Council; the very mechanisms of the UN give the leading role to the victors of World War II. Russias place as the recognized legal successor of the USSR is inviolable, experts say. After all, it is enshrined in the charter!

But there are other experts who wonder, what about the PRCs case? The UN charter mentions the Republic of Chinathat is, Taiwan. In 1971, under pressure from Beijing and the countries of the socialist bloc, the seat on the Security Council (and more broadly at the UN) was transferred to the Peoples Republic of China, and specifically to communists from the mainland. Isnt this a precedent?

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, newly independent, internationally recognized states appeared, but it was Russia that took a seat on the Security Council. It was Russia, designated as among the winners of World War II. It may look as though the contributions of Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Belarus, and others to that victory are insignificant. But it was the sacrifice of all the Soviet socialist republics in the fight against fascism that helped end the war, so why are Moscows merits valued higher?

Yes, in 1991 a CIS declaration was signed recognizing Russias right to take the place of the Soviet Union, but now, according to a number of analysts and politicians, the time is ripe to review the status quo.

A Tethered Security CouncilOn the one-year anniversary of Russias invasion of Ukraine, Time magazine published an article under the authorship of three Ukrainian lawyers, members of the Ukrainian parliament.

Russia must be brought to justice, they wrote. UN membership was meant to be restricted to peace-loving states. If the countrys regime were to change, of course it should be possible for its membership to be restored by a vote of the General Assembly. But until then, the very viability of the UN as a peacekeeping organization suffers as long as its members are forced to negotiate with a political regime that has been deemed, by the European Parliament and others, a state sponsor of terrorism.

There are many questions about the UN and its effectiveness. The most obvious one is that the organization exists in order to ensure peace and security. But this role has not been fulfilled for a long time: the MarchJune 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, which the Russian Foreign Ministry so often refers to, was carried out without the approval of the Security Council. Another example is the United States and its allies invasion of Iraq, which proceeded without Security Council approval.

Moscow concluded that a giant rusty machine consisting of a revolving door of people, offices, schedules, meetings, negotiations, documents, statements, handshakes, publications, discussions, condemnationsand, most important, an impressive budgetwould continue to roll on for some time and in some senseless direction by inertia alone. So what do we see? We see how one of the few members of this privileged club starts a war, and at the same time with its veto power blocks attempts to protect the victim.

What is the practical meaning of the UN Security Council? In October 2022 the UN adopted a resolution condemning the annexation of Ukrainian regions. In favor: 143 states. Against: 5, with 35 abstaining. This means that Russia is in an obvious, undeniable minority. Moreover, the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for the arrest of the president of Russia, who is suspected of war crimes. If Russia had not blocked the resolutions of the Security Council, the UN would have been able to send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. But there is no such possibility. Instead we are witnessing the absolute impotence of the only body in the world that should, in theory, protect civilians, wherever they are attacked.

Where Is the Peace?So where is the security that the Security Council needs to guarantee? Its not there. Although there is a Security Councilso where is the peace? Ukraines president Vladimir Zelensky uttered these words in his April 5, 2022, video address to the Security Council. He suggested that the UN either reform and throw the aggressor out of the Security Council or dissolve itself.

A year has passed, with no change. Before our very eyes, the pillars of the international peacekeeping order are shaking. Obviously, those who could now start the procedure for revising the UN rules are afraid of even sharper shocks and do not want to provoke, thus finally turning the world into one big powder keg.

There is some rituality in the appearance of Sergey Lavrov in New York. The speech at the UN is a vestige of Cold War performances, an echo of the conferences at Yalta and Potsdam in which the world was shared between the USSR and the United States. This image is important to Putin. It is how he would like to see the current crisis resolved, with a meeting of two adult guys (or more likely three, as such a meeting probably would not take place without Xi Jinping) somewhere in neutral Switzerland, a world map on the table in front of them, pencils in hands. Perhaps the president of Russia, who does not use the internet, simply did not notice that times have changed.

The opinions expressed in this article are those solely of the author and do not reflect the views of the Kennan Institute.

Link:

Lavrov Reads from a Piece of Paper, Putin Stares into the Past - Wilson Center

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa A U.S.-sanctioned Russian oligarch is accused of making shady deals under sunny skies with South African politicians, the reported real reason why Russian President Vladimir Putin could evade arrest should he make a planned trip to South Africa in August.

OligarchViktor Vekselberg, said to be close to Putin, has been accused of repeatedly bankrolling South Africas ruling ANC political party. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, also president of the ANC, has so far failed to undertake efforts to arrest the Russian leader should he make the planned trip. Ramaphosas government has repeatedly refrained at the U.N. from criticizing Russias invasion of Ukraine, saying it is "friends" with Moscow.

U.S. relations with South Africa are hanging by a thread. Its a diplomatic mess of epic proportions. The International Criminal Court (ICC) sparked fury by demanding that countries who are signatories to the court, including South Africa,arrest Putin should he touch their soil, accusing him of war crimes against Ukrainian children.

South Africa has invited Putin to attend a summit here of the BRICS group of nations Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. So far, the government has not canceled the invite but has given reasons why it believes it doesn't need to arrest him, suggesting there is a loophole in the ICCs rules.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, greets South African President Cyril Ramaphosa during a welcoming ceremony at the Russia-Africa Summit in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, Russia, Oct. 23, 2019.

INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT ISSUES PUTIN ARREST WARRANT OVER CHILD DEPORTATIONS FROM UKRAINE

And precedent shows that, if its left to the government alone, Putin can extend his middle finger to the West by walking about in South Africa as free as a bird. Its happened before here in disturbingly similar circumstances. In 2015, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir. But he was allowed to visit South Africa for several days and even given a large motorcade escort by the very police who, according to the law, shouldreportedly have arrested him.

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Fox News Digital asked the U.S. State Department whether Putin should be arrested in Africa.

"There is no doubt that members of Russias forces and other Russian officials are committing war crimes and other atrocities in Ukraine, and we have been clear that those responsible must be held accountable," a State Department spokesperson said. "We support accountability for perpetrators of war crimes."

The view outside the International Criminal Court March 29, 2022, in Den Haag, Netherlands.

South Africas Justice Minister Ronald Lamola told the local Business Day his police may not arrest Putin. Instead, they are exploring "the option to look at extending customary diplomatic immunity to visiting heads of state in our country."

Officially, South Africa has still not committed to an arrest.

"Cabinet has appointed an inter-ministerial committee chaired by the deputy president to discuss the legal opinion provided on the matter and propose a way forward," Clayson Monyela, the Department of International Relations head of public diplomacy told Fox News Digital.

Monyela further said reports in some international media that South Africa is quietly trying to persuade Putin not to visit are not the correct "line."

Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts the 14th BRICS Summit via video link in Beijing June 23, 2022.

NEW WORLD DISORDER: CHINA, RUSSIA BLOC SHORES UP INFLUENCE AS COUNTRIES EAGER TO JOIN, INCLUDING US ALLIES

"There is absolutely no legal basis (currently or in the near future) for the South African government tonotarrest Putin," Priyal Singh, senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), told Fox News Digital from Pretoria.

"As a party to the Rome Statute, Pretoria has a clear-cut international obligation to abide by its commitments and to effect the arrest," Singh added. "Moreover, as a country that has domesticated these obligations in terms of our national legislation, the government would effectively be breaking its own laws if it did not follow through with the arrest."

South Africas main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, or DA, is considering looking to the courts to force the issue. Itis "in the process of exploring all potential legal options to ensure South Africas compliance with the ICC Implementation Act, should Putin physically visit the country in August," Emma Louise Powell, the DAs shadow minister for international relations, told Fox News Digital.

In addition, Alan Winde, premier of the DA-controlled Western Cape plans to use the regional police under his control to arrest Putin at Cape Town International Airport should he arrive there.

"If the Russian leader sets foot in the Western Cape, we as the provincial government will have him arrested by our own Western Cape government-funded Law Enforcement Advancement Plan (LEAP) officers," Winde saidin a statement late last month. "If the South African Police Service is not instructed to act, we will."

This fighting talk has drawn the admiration ofSen. Jim Risch, R-Idaho, the leading Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

"Its good to see some leaders in South Africa speaking openly and without ambiguity about Putins visit to their country," Risch tweeted. "This kind of honest government leadership is desperately needed to build the U.S.-South Africa relationship."

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa answers questions about the BRICS partnership during a media briefing in Cape Town, South Africa, June 10, 2022.

RUSSIA 'CHIEF BENEFICIARY' IN DEADLY SUDAN CONFLICT AS ATTEMPTED CEASEFIRE FALLS APART

But this enthusiasm is not shared bySouth Africa International Relations Minister Naledi Pandor. She ridiculed any attempt to carry out an arrest, suggesting it could spark conflict.

"Heads of state do not come to any country without security support," she told Newzroom Afrika. "The notion that security forces would let South African police pop up and take their president, I think we mustnt make ourselves laughable".

So why is South Africa clearly reluctant to act over Putin?

"To understand South Africas relationship with Russia, you have to understand its Cold War history. Russia was anti-apartheid before it was fashionable in the United States,"Cameron Hudson told Fox News Digital.

Hudson is formerly a CIA officer and director of African affairs at the National Security Council during President George W. Bush's administration. He is now a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies Africa Program.

"Moscow hosted leading figures in the African National Congress for training and education and supported them with funds," Hudson added.

"But those ties are fraying. The previous presidency of Jacob Zuma moved South Africa much closer to Moscow and, in the process, also weakened democratic institutions in South Africa and saw a corruption spike. Given the countrys economic slide, corrupt deals of the kind Moscow has become associated with in South Africa are of decidedly bad odor."

The DAs Powell added, "The African National Congress and its senior members have long been suspected of having financial interests with the Russian oligarchy that they may now be seeking to protect at the expense of the countrys domestic interests and obligations under international law."

TWO CHARGED WITH EVADING US SANCTIONS TO HELP RUSSIAN OLIGARCH PROTECT $90 MILLION YACHT

Sanctioned Russian oligarchs mysteriously have Ramaphosas support, at least when it comes to allowing their megayachts to dock at South African ports despite U.S. requests to seize them.

"South Africa has no legal obligation to abide by sanctions imposed by the U.S. and E.U.," Ramaphosas spokesperson, Vincent Magwenya, told reporters, referring to a proposal to dockRussian oligarch Alexey Mordashovs $500 million megayacht "Nord" in Cape Town.

The Nord superyacht in Hong Kong Oct. 14, 2022.

Another sanctioned oligarch, Viktor Vekselberg, helped out Ramaphosas cash-strapped ANC by funding its party conference late last year through his company to the tune of some $826,000, according to recently released information from South Africas electoral commission, the IEC.

Its not the first time Vekselberg has reportedly channeled funds to South Africas ruling party. United Manganese, the local mine he owns 49% of, donated over $400,000 to the ANC in 2020, according to James Lorimer, the DAs shadow minister of mineral resources.

Economically, the DAs Powell believes South Africas position on Russia makes no sense.

"Despite Russia accounting for as little as 0.3% of South Africas trade ties, the ANC is willing to disregard South Africas crucial domestic interests in order to protect an alleged war criminal and shore up further political patronage with Moscow" she told Fox News Digital.

"To put this into perspective, South Africa does less trade with Russia than it does with one of its most under-developed neighboring countries."

The U.S.'s biggest trading partner in Africa is South Africa. Sources say the U.S. is frustrated, particularly by the Putin arrest saga, and may choose to drop South Africa from the AGOA trade agreement, where Washington gives products ranging from oranges to cars duty-free status on sale into the U.S.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks with Skolkovo Foundation President Viktor Vekselberg during his visit to the National Children's Sports and Health Centre in Sochi Oct. 11, 2014.

"South Africa-U.S. trade relations could be seriously undermined if Pretoria does not carefully manage its relations with Washington and Moscow," said the ISSs Singh.

Gustavo de Carvalho, senior researcher, African governance and diplomacy, at the South African Institute of International Affairs, told Fox News Digital he is concerned about the countrys current position over Russia.

"As national elections approach in 2024, this delicate matter could significantly impact the nation's political trajectory and its relationships with key international partners," Carvalho said.

"The United States should exercise caution in addressing this situation, as stringent measures could push South Africa further away and create a ripple effect among other Global South nations."

Fox News Digital reached out to the ANC for comment but has not received a response.

Continued here:

Putin poses arrest dilemma as South African opposition says if Russian-friendly government won't act, it will - Yahoo News