Daily Archives: May 2, 2023

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Britain's 'Brexit capital' shows signs of disillusionment with Tories - Financial Times

Consumer affairs

Experts say it is vital to check you meet EU requirements, or you could risk losing your holiday

Sat 29 Apr 2023 02.00 EDT

Travellers who have not used their passport for a while were this week being urged to dig it out and check it conforms to the post-Brexit rules for entering the EU because if it doesnt, you will almost certainly be denied boarding this summer.

Despite previous warnings in Guardian Money and some other publicity, UK travellers trying to enter the Schengen zone are being turned away on a daily basis by airline staff at boarding gates in most cases because their UK passport was issued more than 10 years ago.

Rosi Simpson, a teacher from Brighton, is one of the latest to be caught up in the confusion. She says she was left mortified and in tears after easyJet staff refused to allow her to board a flight to Paris to see her son, who is studying there, because her UK passport had been issued 10 years and one day previously.

I had no idea of the 10-year rule, she says. Id checked the expiry date, and my passport had eight months remaining. What happened at the boarding gate was absolutely awful. I lost the cost of the flight and the accommodation Id booked Id been so looking forward to seeing my son. What I dont understand is why this [rule change] hasnt had more publicity an information campaign. I wasnt the only one who this had happened to at the airport that day, she says.

In terms of flights and ferries to mainland Europe, passengers will also be denied boarding if their passport expires less than three months after their return date. Previously, it was thought that UK travellers needed at least six months left, although the EU has since clarified the three-month requirement.

Prior to Brexit, UK passport holders could travel in and out of the EU as long as they held a valid passport, even one that expired the day after their return.

The more onerous rules, which came into effect in 2021, apply to UK passport holders travelling to any EU country (except Ireland), plus the others in the Schengen zone: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, the Vatican and Switzerland.

The over 10-year problem came about because, for many years, those renewing their passport before the previous one expired were able to add any remaining time left. Prior to September 2018, you could have up to nine months added to the replacements 10-year length meaning their passport could be valid for as long as 10 years and nine months.

Passengers may look at their passport, see that it does not expire until well after their return, and conclude that all is well. However, they need to check the date of issue. If the passport will be more than 10 years old on the day of entry, they will not be allowed in.

The change has caught out a great many passengers who were unaware of the change. Last year, Guardian Money featured the case of Pat Cerely and her husband, Peter, who were refused permission to board their plane to Madeira on the grounds that Pats passport was not valid even though it had another nine months remaining.

Every day, others are falling foul of the rule and if it happens to you, it can be a financial disaster. Travel insurers will not pay out for a lost holiday if you tried to travel with an invalid passport.

Jo Rhodes, the deputy travel editor at Which?, says: Recently, some travellers have been caught out by EU passport rules, meaning they havent been able to go on holiday as planned.

Your passport must have been issued in the past 10 years at the time of entering the EU. Legally, youre also required to have at least three months left on your passport at the time you plan on exiting the EU. If you have a holiday planned this summer, check your passport now to make sure it meets all the requirements for your destination, so you dont risk being turned away at the airport.

She says Which? advises travelling with at least six months validity to be on the safe side.

She adds: Despite the legal requirement being three months, UK travellers are strongly advised by the European Commission and the UK government to have no less than six months on the end of their passports. This is because some border guards believe that people tend to stay in the EU for longer than they say and so theyre reluctant to grant you entry if you have less than six months.

Countries such as Romania, which is in Europe but outside the Schengen zone, stipulate that UK passport holders are required to have at least six months on their passports to enter the country. It is by no means alone.

To add extra excitement to the story, Passport Office workers, who process applications, are approaching the end of a five-week strike. It is thought that up to a quarter of the agencys 4,000 employees are not in work as normal.

However, while the Passport Office says users should currently allow 10 weeks for their application to be processed, most applications are being sorted out a lot more quickly than that. The 10-week advice includes every kind of application, including those for new passports or where the renewal requires a change of name after a marriage or similar.

If you have a straightforward renewal of an existing passport and your details are all the same name and address and so on then people are reporting getting their replacements in days rather than weeks.

The most recent postings on the Passportwaitingtime.co.uk website which tells you how long it is likely to take to get your UK passport suggested that simple adult renewals were being processed in an average of 12 days, and often more quickly than that. Adult first passport applications were typically being processed in 17 days (29 days with an interview) while one-week fast-track applications were being dealt with in 5.7 days, it said this week.

Guardian Money has heard similar reports. The online process is the quickest and cheapest way to apply.

A Passport Office spokesperson told us it remains well positioned to deal with this industrial action, and there is no change in our guidance People are receiving their passports in good time, with 99.7% of applications processed within the published 10-week timeframe.

The final sting in the tail is that the passport fees all rose for the first time in five years in February. The fee for a standard online application made from within the UK rose from 75.50 to 82.50 for adults, and from 49 to 53.50 for children. Postal applications went up from 85 to 93 for adults and from 58.50 to 64 for children. If you were born on or before 2 September 1929, it is free.

This article was amended on 30 April 2023. Passengers will be denied boarding if their passport expires less than three months after their return date, not three months before their return date as an earlier version said. And part of a quote was removed at the request of an interviewee.

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I was in tears: Briton with valid passport barred from flight over Brexit rules - The Guardian

Denmark has decided to extend the deadline for submitting residence applications for Britons who resided in the country before December 31, 2022, and who submitted their applications after the original deadline expired on December 31, 2021.

According to the Danish Agency for International Recruitment and Integration (SIRI), based on the Withdrawal Agreement, all those who submitted their application after the deadline expired and received a rejection to have their residence application processed will be able to submit a new application until December 31, 2023.

Moreover, the same stressed that the extension of the deadline also applies to Britons who have not submitted an application yet and noted that the authorities would start processing pending applications that were put on hold previously, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.

The deadline for submitting an application for residence based on the Withdrawal Agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom is being extended until December 31, 2023. The extension will take effect on May 1, 2023. SIRI will reopen the processing of pending applications that previously were put on hold, the statement of SIRI reads.

On the contrary, SIRI highlighted that the extended deadline during which residence applications can be submitted would not apply to Britons who had their application processed and received a refusal due to not meeting the conditions of the Withdrawal Agreement. This group of individuals will not be able to have their applications processed again.

In addition to the above-mentioned, it has been explained that those who received a rejection to have their application processed by SIRI and have a pending appeal will be contacted by the Immigration Appeals Board.

As for those who have received a rejection by SIRI and the Immigration Appeals Board to have their application processed but have not appealed the rejection, it has been explained that they can require SIRI to have their cases reopened.

Britons who submit their residence applications will continue to be required to meet the conditions for residence based on the Withdrawal Agreement. Among others, they must prove that they have resided in Denmark before December 31, 2020, according to the EU regulations on free movement.

Previously, SchengenVisaInfo.com reported that fewer Brits moved to Denmark in 2021, with the country recording a significant drop compared to the last 15 years.

Data provided by Denmark Statistics show that 854 citizens of the UK moved to Denmark in 2021. This is a sharp decline compared to 2020 and 2019, when the country registered 1,406 and 1,584 Britons who moved to the country, respectively.

The rest is here:

Brexit: Britons to Be Able to Submit Residence Applications in ... - SchengenVisaInfo.com

By Tim Baker, Political reporter

Friday 28 April 2023 09:47, UK

The "bonfire" of EU legislation by the government is to scrap less than a quarter of the estimated European laws on statute books, MPs have been told.

Sky News understands Eurosceptic Tory MPs were told by Business and Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch just 800 of roughly 4,000 laws are expected to be ditched by the end of this year.

Brexiteer Conservatives - including the European Research Group - will be angered by what they will see as a watering down of a promised "bonfire" of EU "red tape".

Rishi Sunak said at his agenda-setting New Year's speech that a "big part" of increasing growth in the country was "seizing the opportunities of Brexit", which includes making sure that "regulations are agile" and support "innovation".

"We have new opportunities and freedoms to do that, and we are absolutely going to seize them to deliver for the country," he added at the time.

Jacob Rees-Mogg was the Brexit opportunities minister who was shepherding the Retained EU Law Bill through parliament before he left government when Mr Sunak took office.

This law would revoke EU laws by the end of this year which are judged not to be essential.

Mr Rees-Mogg branded the update from Downing Street as "thin gruel".

And one Eurosceptic MP told Sky News: "I'm extremely disappointed.

"It goes against all the assurances we have had from the prime minister.

"In fact, I'd be very surprised if he supported it."

But a person previously involved in Brexit discussions welcomed the move - and highlighted its pragmatic nature.

Raoul Ruparel, who advised Theresa May on Brexit, said that this was "surely how the process was meant to work" - and that removing laws "for the sake of it" would be "nonsense".

He also pointed out that the ERG's failure to muster a large rebellion over the government's new agreement with the EU on Northern Ireland may have emboldened Downing Street.

Naomi Smith, the chief executive of the anti-Brexit campaign group Best for Britain, said: "Unless it is scrapped entirely, this bill will automatically remove workers' rights, food standards and environmental protections by the end of the year while unleashing economic chaos in the UK."

Sources close to Ms Badenoch did not deny she made the remarks.

This is a limited version of the story so unfortunately this content is not available. Open the full version

A government spokesman said ministers continue to support the bill and removing "unnecessary" EU laws - but did not commit to completing the removal by the start of 2024.

He said: "We remain committed to ensuring the Retained EU Law Bill receives royal assent and that the supremacy of EU law ends with unnecessary and burdensome EU laws removed by the end of this year.

"Once passed, the bill will enable the country to further seize the opportunities of Brexit by ensuring regulations fit the needs of the UK, helping to grow our economy and drive innovation."

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Brexit: Just 800 of estimated 4,000 EU laws to be scrapped by year's end, MPs told by minister - Sky News

Political biographer Anthony Seldon has said Boris Johnson absolutely did not believe in Brexit but backed the project for his own political gain.

Speaking to Sky News, the prominent author reflected on what he learned about the former prime minister whilst writing his book, Johnson at 10: The Inside Story.

He said, at his heart, Johnson is an extraordinarily empty character, and dismissed any claim that he truly believed the UKs exit from the European Union would be in the interests of the country.

The evidence is absolutely clear, Seldon says.

From the beginning it was striking that he believed that there was a cause far higher than Britains economic interests, than Britains relationship with Europe, than Britains place in the world, than the strength of the union. That cause was his own advancement.

Watch the Sky News clip below:

Related: Brits asked to pledge allegiance by law to King Charles during Coronation

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Political biographer says Johnson 'absolutely did not' believe in Brexit - The London Economic

Sign up to our free Brexit and beyond email for the latest headlines on what Brexit is meaning for the UKSign up to our Brexit email for the latest insight

Brexit is killing the hospitality industry, with the number of venue closures rising sixfold in just a year, stark new data obtained exclusively by The Independent shows.

The net closure of almost 4,600 pubs, clubs, hotels and restaurants in the year to 31 March 2023 the 12 months that followed the ending of Covid restrictions lays bare the devastating impact of staff shortages caused by Brexit as well as the cost of living crisis. The figure compares to just 678 closures in the year to March 2022 and amounts to an average of 12.6 closures a day, with independent family-run businesses taking the biggest hit.

Britain now has 13,793 fewer pubs, bars, hotels, restaurants, nightclubs and other licensed premises than it had three years ago. This represents a 12 per cent contraction of the UK hospitality sector, and is more than twice the 6,400 net closures recorded in the three-year period before Britains withdrawal from the EU on 31 January 2020 and the onset of the Covid pandemic a few weeks later.

More than 30 per cent of nightclubs have gone to the wall half of them in the past 12 months while one in 12 restaurants, along with 5 per cent of sports and social clubs, ceased trading in the same period.

Many owners have cited persistent staff shortages since leaving the EU as the main reason they had to close. There are currently 142,000 unfilled jobs in the accommodation and food services sector, according to the Office for National Statistics. This represents a 6.5 per cent job vacancy rate, which is almost 50 per cent above pre-Brexit levels, and is the highest rate across all of the UKs business sectors.

Chef-restaurateur Mark Hix announced with heavy heart last year that he was closing his Dorset pub, the Fox Inn, because of staff shortages. Hix said that despite the end of Covid, the challenges simply continue, with rising costs and a difficulty to recruit like I have never known in my whole career.

Weymouth fish and chip shop Fish n Fritz, shut last month, also citing a lack of staff. Owner Paul Hay said the closure was not due to cost hikes or lack of business, but rather that we cant find staff to keep it open.

Michelin Guide-listed gastro-pub The Muddy Duck in Oxfordshire has ceased trading because it was unable to replace a departing chef team despite trying for three months. And Fenn, one of Fulhams top-rated restaurants, is to shut this weekend due to ongoing staff shortages that make keeping the restaurant open untenable.

Lord Heseltine, the former deputy prime minister who campaigned for the UK to remain in the EU, said: This is happening throughout the economy ... Brexit is a disaster, and increasingly people are saying so. Quite obviously we benefit immensely from access to the qualified European labour pool, and that has been denied to us, with these consequences.

The quicker Britain wakes up to the interdependence of this country with Europe and finds a way of accessing the single market again, the better our economy will be.

Economists say staff shortages are mostly due to post-Brexit immigration policies, which stopped free movement of labour from the EU, making it difficult to bring in lower-paid workers.

Brexit has led to less trade and lower growth, with the UK economy 5.5 per cent poorer than it would have been if Britain had stayed in the EU, according to a study by the Centre for European Reform. This amounts to 40bn in lost tax revenues. The Office for Budget Responsibility said that trade volumes are 7 per cent lower than if we had remained in the EU.

Mark Hix announced with heavy heart last year that he was closing the Fox Inn because of staff shortages

(Photo by Mark Thomas/REX)

Jonathan Portes, a professor of economics and public policy at Kings College London, and a senior fellow at think tank UK in a Changing Europe, told The Independent that lower-paid sectors have been the big losers in the post-Brexit immigration arrangements.

He said: The government would never openly admit it, but the consequence of their stated aim to move to a high-wage, high-skill economy and shrink the low-wage economy is that a significant number of low-wage employers, like hospitality companies, will go bust, as they simply do not have the wiggle room to adjust to paying higher wages.

Ministers will never say that some pubs and hospitality companies will go to the wall as a result of their immigration policies, but that is exactly what their policies are designed to achieve.

Jonathan Thomas, a senior fellow at the Social Market Foundation think tank, said: It was totally envisaged that the end of EU freedom of movement would cause job vacancies in sectors reliant on low-wage EU workers. It seems to be the governments view that hospitality, which grew substantially pre-Brexit, will be collateral damage that it will contract and be a smaller sector than it was.

The new figures on closures, compiled by consultancies CGA by NIQ and AlixPartners, reveal that poorer cities such as Aberdeen and Birmingham have suffered more, losing 19 and 17 per cent respectively of their city centre licensed premises in the past three years, compared to more affluent cities such as Bristol, which lost just 1.5 per cent. The picture in London is more patchy, but overall the city has endured a net decline of 15 per cent.

The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, said: Our world-leading hospitality industry is a key driver of Londons and the UKs economy, but many pubs, restaurants and other venues have been hit extremely hard by the impact of Brexit, with changes to immigration rules making it harder to recruit workers.

With the ongoing cost of living crisis, this vital sector is facing an unprecedented and potentially catastrophic set of challenges that need to be addressed by ministers now.

Thousands of pubs and resturants have closed in the past year

(PA Wire)

Tony Wilson, director of the Institute for Employment Studies, said: We are one of the only major economies in the developed world with less people employed now than before the pandemic began. It is clear that Brexit has held back growth, but it has also made inequality worse, with parts of the country more impacted by staff shortages and closures than others.

The government has used the shortage occupation list to create exceptions and make it easier to recruit low-wage workers, but while this has been used to help out the construction and social care sectors, it has not been extended to hospitality.

Trade bodies sayimmigration reformsare critical.UKHospitality chief executive Kate Nicholls said: These results [referring to the CGA data] are stark. We need to see significant support from government in the form of urgent action on the labour market and energy. Staff shortages have plagued the sector for years, and with vacancies 48 per cent higher than pre-pandemic levels, the government must take action to change the immigration system.

Labour MP Dame Angela Eagle, the former shadow business secretary, said we need to look beyond quick fixes to the immigration system. What seems to be happening is that most of our economic growth is because of increased migration, yet at the same time, the government grandly announce they want to reduce it.There is an incoherence about the government approach, which creates uncertainty for businesses as they plan ahead.

Karl Chessell, the director of CGA by NIQ, said that without sustained help to tide the sector through the current crisis, many more closures are likely over the rest of 2023. Graeme Smith, managing director of AlixPartners, added that their joint study revealed that, on current trends, the total number of licensed venues which currently stands at 101,315, employing over 2.2 million people was set to fall below 100,000 this year for the first time in decades.

Many business were already struggling because of Covid

(PA Wire)

Seventy per cent of employers think that restricted access to labour is a threat to their competitiveness, and will be in five years time, according to a poll published in a CBI report last year. Nearly half of the businesses said they wanted the government to grant temporary emergency visas for roles in obvious shortage.

And research carried out by think tanks the Centre for European Reform and UK in a Changing Europe suggests that Brexit has led to a shortfall of 330,000 people in the UK labour force, mostly in the low-skilled economy, compared to how things would have been if we had stayed in the EU.

Luke Wasserman, the co-owner of Fenn, which opened in 2018 and got a reboot off the back of Covid, said staffing has been an ongoing issue.

He said: Prior to Brexit, I believe things were very different. We had 10 good candidates per job before we left the EU; now we are lucky if anyone turns up. Its a constant battle, and especially upsetting because people have put in 60-hour weeks and we have built such a revered reputation. But the truth is that, while Covid was big, Brexit has been massive. You look at all the closures going on countrywide, and you see, yeah, this is definitely an issue.

A government spokesperson said: Hospitality plays a huge role in local economies and communities. We have been working hard to fill vacancies in the sector through our Hospitality Sector Council and our Plan for Jobs and are glad to see vacancies falling 16 per cent in the last year. During the pandemic, much of our 400bn of business support was aimed at hospitality, retail and leisure, and we have provided further support through the 18bn energy bill relief scheme and the energy bills discount scheme for UK businesses, which will run for a further 12 months.

Additional reporting by Archie Mitchell

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Revealed: The great Brexit pubs and clubs shutdown - The Independent

The London ambassadors from European Union (EU) member states are decamping this weekend to the south coast of England to think through the EUs post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom. The meeting is a welcome sign of warming relations but can only be the start. As ambassadors swap their oxfords for Wellingtons, they must consider bold approaches to rebuild the EU-UK relationship.

Februarys Windsor Framework breakthrough to reform customs arrangements for Northern Ireland has created an opening to put the EU-UK relationship on a much-improved footing. With fresh seriousness from Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and a willingness from EU negotiators to agree to significant concessions, rhetorical mudpies slung across the Channel were replaced by beaming photo ops and tea with the king when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited London to finalize the framework and mark a new chapter in UK-EU relations.

The agreement has already led to progress in the relationship. In March, London and Brussels restarted talks on the United Kingdoms reentry into the Horizon Europe program, which dishes out billions for research and innovation projects (although difficulties in negotiations remain).

Even before the Windsor Framework was finalized, there were hints of what a productive relationship could look like. The EU granted the United Kingdom access to the Permanent Structured Cooperation project on military mobility in November, and Britain was represented at the first meeting of the still ambiguously defined European Political Community (EPC) in October. (The United Kingdoms refreshed Integrated Review of national security and international policy in March also endorsed the EPC and pledged that the country will host an EPC meeting next year.) The United Kingdom also strengthened ties to EU members such as Poland and the Baltic states through security assistance and announced a partnership with Italy (and Japan) on a fighter jet project. Most notably, Sunak and French President Emmanuel Macron found bonhomie and agreed to cooperate on migration in the English Channel. Now with Brexit on the road to resolution, the focus should be turning this collaboration into a real partnership.

The United Kingdom may no longer be a member of the EU, but it is still a part of Europe. And the urgency is great. Policymakers in Brussels should see in London a partner that largely shares its outlook and embrace the United Kingdoms role in Europes security. Strategists in London should see their EU neighbor not just as a powerful trading bloc but an actor growing its geopolitical stature.

Put simply, London and Brussels need each other. By the House of Commons estimate, 42 percent of total UK exports went to the EU and 48 percent of imports came from the EU in 2022. For the EU, the United Kingdom is still one of the largest economies in Europe and a financial hub with deep access to capital markets despite its deep crisis in confidence. On defense, the United Kingdom is Ukraines single largest military supporter in Europe, second only to the United States worldwide. London has also promised increased defense spending in contrast to improving but struggling defense efforts elsewhere in Europe.

Beyond Ukraine lies China. Both London and Brussels are focused on the Indo-Pacific and working on how to manage the relationship with Beijing as competition moves closer to confrontationespecially between Washington and Beijing. The United Kingdom has the lead with its Indo-Pacific tilt, and Europe is grappling withbut inching forward ona new strategy and approach toward China and Taiwan.

Russias war in Ukraine, growing confrontation with China, and a rewiring of the global economy all serve as important reminders that the United Kingdoms relation to the EU almost seems like a footnote when you take a step back. The affronts, challenges, and challengers to the world system do not seem to differentiate much between the two. A stasis of skepticismor, at worst, estrangementcarries costly penalties for both sides of the Channel. As neighbors, global powers, and proponents of liberal governance in an increasingly geopolitical world, a productive relationship between London and Brussels becomes a necessity, not a luxury.

This is not to suggest that UK-EU policies will immediately fully align. There remain very real policy differences, and a reentry into the EU Single Market or Customs Union, let alone the bloc itself, is not in the cards. That should not stop policymakers from aspiring to a relationship based on shared interests. In practice, that means identifying areas of cooperation that are ambitious yet realistic across two priority areas: Defense and economics.

The EU has been bootstrapping its defense and security policies since the Russian invasion of Ukraine but is woefully underprepared for the geopolitical climate in which it finds itself. The United Kingdom can help. Options include:

On economics, the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Green Deal Industrial Plan are rewiring how traditional free traders do business. While slow in response, the United Kingdom still has a role to play. Policymakers could consider:

A bucolic weekend getaway on the coast wont bridge the cross-Channel divide. Real change will require buy-in from leadership at the highest levels in Brussels, capitals across Europe, and of course London. But the meeting does show that the European Union is thinking about its post-Brexit relationship with the United Kingdom. That is a start.

Jrn Fleck is the senior director of the Atlantic Councils Europe Center.

Ben Judah is the director of the Transform Europe Initiative in the Europe Center.

Mon, Oct 24, 2022

Fast ThinkingByAtlantic Council

Can Sunak steady the markets, the country, and the Conservative Party? How will minority communities in Britain view a history-making prime minister of Indian descent?

Image: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen shake hands as they hold a news conference at Windsor Guildhall, Britain, February 27, 2023. Dan Kitwood/Pool via REUTERS

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How the EU and UK can start to collaborate in a post-Brexit world - Atlantic Council

Liberal Democrats

Party aiming to capitalise on disillusionment with government in blue wall Hertfordshire town in Mays local election

Sat 29 Apr 2023 01.00 EDT

Voters in the Hertfordshire town of Berkhamsted have been sending Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat prospective parliamentary candidate, videos of sewage. Out knocking on doors before local council elections in May, she claims the state of local waterways is an issue causing former Conservatives to move their vote.

A lot of people are just horrified, because theyre really proud of the local countryside, she says. Were talking to lifelong Tories who are saying, now might be the time to change.

With its half-timbered houses, smart coffee shops and reams of coronation bunting, Berkhamsted feels like true blue Tory territory. But the Lib Dems hope to make gains on 4 May. The partys leader, Ed Davey, even launched his local election campaign there, on a tractor.

Daisy Cooper, the MP for nearby St Albans, who won her seat from the Conservatives in 2019, says the issue of raw sewage being dumped into rivers sums up in a very obvious visceral and visual way, the state of the country; thats how bad its got, that they feel they can do this with impunity.

The local Dacorum district council has 31 Conservative councillors and 19 Lib Dems. With all the seats up for grabs, the Lib Dems believe they could even take control and then use it as a stepping stone to the general election, echoing their success in nearby Chesham and Amersham in 2021.

Its all of it, says Laila Walker, who stops Collins and Cooper in the street to offer her support and express frustration at the state of the country. The NHS obviously is just desperate. But cost of living theres not one thing, there are so many things.

Theres so much to do, agrees Mary Beard, a former teacher who is now a carer for her husband, as she stands at her front door in a well-kept conservation area near the town centre.

She highlights the expansion of free school meals as a policy she would like to see implemented more widely. Ive worked with some very poor children, and its difficult. At least then you know they have one good meal a day, she says. I understand a number of them dont have breakfast or anything like that.

Paula Surridge, an elections expert from the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe, says the Lib Dems are right to target blue wall areas like this. Theyre the right sort of places for them, and theyre there as a home for a lot of more liberal Conservative-leaning voters, who didnt vote Lib Dem in 2019 because they didnt want to let [Jeremy] Corbyn in by the back door.

But she cautions against expectations of sweeping gains on 4 May. This batch of council seats was last contested in 2019 when MPs were waging a debilitating war over Brexit. Back then, the Lib Dems gained more than 700 seats, while the two main parties, under Theresa May and Corbyn, both slumped to just 23% of the vote.

I would expect them to make a few gains; but I think both the Conservative losses and the Lib Dem gains are being a bit over-egged, she predicts.

On Berkhamsted High Street, disillusionment with the government is easy to find but its not necessarily matched by enthusiasm for the alternatives.

I think theyre bloody hopeless, to be honest, says Jenny Hackett, emerging from a dance class in the bunting-decked civic centre. Asked if she voted for the Conservatives, she concedes: Im ashamed to say I did.

I will not vote Conservative again, she says, but adds: I dont think Labour would do any better.

Like other voters the Guardian met in Berkhamsted, Hackett prefers Rishi Sunak to his predecessors but sees him as out of touch. Theyre so wealthy, they havent got a clue, have they? Hes a billionaire. But I do think hes the best of what theyve got.

Shelley Stoddart, fresh from browsing an estate agents window, says shes a bit disenchanted with all politicians, and has split her vote in the local elections between the Conservatives, Lib Dems and Greens. At a general election, though, she says: I would always vote Conservative. I think theyre all as bad as one another.

Mike Smith, a pensioner who worked for Kodak before it went bankrupt in 2012, says he has been waiting for two back operations for a year.

A Conservative voter in 2019, he says of the government: Theres a lot more they could do: theres quite a few things they need to address. Its not just the cost of living, its a number of other things as well. Government spend, efficiency, the NHS: all of those things.

Boris Johnson sold us down the river over Brexit, he says. The battle bus made people vote for something that wasnt really there in the first place, as far as Brexit was concerned.

Nevertheless, hell vote Conservative a next weeks local elections and is considering doing the same at the general election. Will I? I dont know. I dont think theres anybody better, to be honest. The Lib Dems, OK fine theyve won Chesham. Here, its pretty much Conservative. If they dont get their act together, I dont know theres nobody else.

Boundary changes mean Lib Dem candidate Collins expects to contest a new parliamentary seat, Harpenden and Berkhamsted, in 2024. It is unclear as yet who she will be facing, as the sitting Tory MPs, Gagan Mohindra and Bim Afolami, have been selected for other redrawn local constituencies.

Keir Starmer and the Labour party, meanwhile, barely seem to get a mention among voters here in the Chilterns, and despite tribal loyalties, are unlikely to mind the Lib Dems taking seats like these off the Tories. So perhaps it should be no surprise that the partys candidate for the Berkhamsted Castle ward, where Collins and Cooper are canvassing, is not out leafleting the neighbours, but at home, tinkering with his car.

Im a paper candidate, so Ill panic if I win, he grins. Introduced to Collins, who hopes to be his next MP, he says, its great to see you out: lovely, adding that when it comes to next years general election, I think weve got one objective.

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Cost of living, Brexit, sewage: how the Lib Dems plan to take Berkhamsted - The Guardian

Paula Surridge analyses UK in a Changing Europes latest Redfield and Wilton Strategies Brexit tracker poll. Shelooks at the influence of a partys Brexit stance on the voting behaviour of different groups to examine how much Brexit is likely to matter at the next election.

With Brexit seemingly of less concern to British voters and a general election on the horizon, a key question is the extent to which the Brexit positions of the parties will matter to the electorate when they next vote. It is a complex question, as voters are not always good at telling us directly the reasons for their vote. But it is critical for political parties thinking about how to engage with the issue in the coming months. Recent research has urged the Labour party to adopt a pro rejoin position, claiming it is a vote winner but has also found that the key swing groups were Leave leaning.

When asked what the most important issue facing the country currently is, fewer than one in five voters choose Brexit. Yet it clearly continues to play a key role in our national political conversation and to divide MPs both across and within political parties. For party strategists, though, a key issue beyond the detail of policy is how party positions on the EU affect the behaviour of voters.

Our Brexit public opinion tracker has asked a wide range of questions about peoples attitudes to Brexit, their Brexit identities and the extent to which various aspects of life in the UK have been improved or worsened as a result of leaving the EU. We have also asked voters about the influence of a partys Brexit stance on their voting behaviour, specifically: Which of the following parties would you be most likely to support and vote for?. Respondents can choose from A party that advocates FOR joining the EU, A party that advocates AGAINST joining the EU or A party that prioritises other issues first.

Overall, the electorate are split relatively evenly across these categories, with 37% saying they would be most likely to support a party in favour or joining the EU, 28% a party that is against joining and 36% saying they would be most likely to vote for a party that prioritises other issues.

There is, as we would expect, a strong pattern of 2016 Remain voters preferring to vote for parties in favour of joining, and Leavers preferring parties which are against joining. However, there is also evidence of large groups of voters on both sides preferring parties that are prioritising other issues.

When it comes to winning general elections, crafting a coalition of voters is key. For Labour and the Conservatives, groups of voters which switch between parties at elections are of particular importance when it comes to winning key seats.

Two groups of voters in recent vote intention polling are especially important. First, those who voted Conservative in 2019 but now say they will vote Labour: it is crucial for Labours polling lead to keep hold of this group. Second, those who voted Conservative in 2019 but are now undecided. Ensuring these voters come home to the Conservatives by polling day will be central to Tory hopes for the next election.

Separating out these different groups shows a more complex pattern of preferences, that pose different challenges for the parties.

Among those who voted Conservative in 2019 and currently would again, a party which is against joining the EU is the most popular response but only just. More than one in three would prefer a party which prioritises other issues, and one in four prefer a party which advocates for re-join. This highlights that even among those voters continuing to support the Conservatives, there are differences to navigate.

But divisions are even more marked amongs the groups of voters that have moved away from the Conservatives. Among those who voted Conservative in 2019 and now intend to vote Labour, there is an even split between those who would prefer a party in favour of rejoin, and those who would prefer a party which will stay out of the EU. However, the largest group are those that want a party that prioritises other issues.

For those who voted Conservative in 2019 but are now undecided voters, fewer than one in ten would support a party advocating for joining the EU, and a two-thirds would prefer a party to be focused on other issues.

The data suggest that those who voted Conservative in 2019 are now the most likely to want a party to prioritise issues other than Brexit, while those who voted Labour in 2019 are most likely to want a party to advocate for joining the EU.

This might at first appear to offer a straightforward solution to Sir Keir Starmer. But critically, the groups of voters Labour needs to boost the coalition it built in 2019 to government are more likely to want a focus on other things. Though a majority of currently undecided voters would prefer a party to not focus on Brexit, those who do express an opinion want a party that is not advocating joining the EU.

For the Conservatives, the difficulty is not that their voters are split between Brexit and other issues. Rather, the party can no longer rely on its Brexit position to hold on to voters who now have other priorities. To win back undecided voters, it is key to understand and act on their policy priorities.

For a majority of voters, the most important issues facing the country are the economy (and inflation) and the NHS. While these are clearly not unrelated to Brexit, a focus on these issues and party policies to address them is likely to be of much greater importance to voters in the next 18 months than any move to (re)join the EU.

By Professor Paula Surridge, Deputy Director, UK in a Changing Europe.

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Will Brexit matter at the next election? - UK in a Changing Europe

Rosie Goldsmith, a journalist and director of the sponsoring European Literature Network, chaired the panel and began by reminding the audience that a survey made several years ago of workers among the United Kingdoms creative industries found as many as 96 percent of the respondents saying they favored the country remaining in the European Union.

Brexit has changed our lives, Goldsmith said. We wont just be whingeing here. Well try to come up with how we can collaborate better and create literary cultural hubs.

Panelists included:

Mathias Rambaud provided a PowerPoint presentation onthe British book market and how Europe, prior to Brexit, had provided translation funding.

Some 200,000 books are published yearly in the United Kingdom, which makes it the third-largest market worldwide. By contrast, roughly 100,000 books are published yearly in France, although both countries have approximately the same population, around 67 million. This is explained by exports from the UK which represent 60 percent of all revenue, whereas in France exports represent 17.5 percent of all revenue. However, only 5.6 percent of books in the UK are translations while in France 16 percent of books are translations. Until recently French was the number one language for translation fiction sales in the UK, but Japanese has just overtaken French.

The United Kingdom was part of the Creative Europe program until 2020. The withdrawal from the European Union resulted in a significant decrease in funding for translated literature, Rambaud said, describing additional funding that had been available, provided by the French Institute and the Centre National du Livre.

On a brighter note, Rambaud said his work with the European Union National Institutes for Culture in London means trying to develop sustainable and long-running projects in the United Kingdom. One of these includestheEuropean Writers Festival, which grew out of the European Writers Tour that was created in 2017. This years festival will be held on May 20 and 21 at the British Library and will feature 30 European writers in partnership with EUNIC London, and the European Literature Network.

The United Kingdom could have remained part of Creative Europe despite leaving the European Union, according to Alexandra Bchler. She pointed to the examples of Norway and Iceland, both of which are participants in Creative Europe while non-EU members.

At Literature Across Frontiers, which is based in Wales, Bchler said, All projects are coordinated with partners. We advocate for literary translation because you cant have exchange without translation. What we do has been diminished because we dont have access to funding. [With Brexit], we ended up with a trade deal that didnt make any provision for the creative sector.

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At London Book Fair: Brexit and Creative Industry Funding - Publishing Perspectives